Game 72: Montreal Canadiens @ Carolina Hurricanes
Start time: 7:00 PM EDT / 4:00 PM PDT
In the Canadiens region: TSN2 (English), RDS (French)
In the Hurricanes region: FanDuel Sports Network South
Streaming: ESPN+, RDS, TSN+
It doesn’t seem that any team actually has the energy to claim the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference after fighting so hard to stay in the playoff picture over the past few months. Every night it seems like the five teams involved claim just one or, more likely, zero points, and last night was no exception with both the Montreal Canadiens and Detroit Red Wings losing in regulation. Of the five teams vying for that place, the best over its last 10 games is the New York Islanders with four wins. It looks like the team that can muster the energy to win a couple of games in a row might be the one to see post-season hockey. Given the struggles of everyone involved, I’ve dropped the projection down to 90 points to take that place, and even that might be too ambitious.
Record needed for 90 points
- (7) Ottawa Senators: 4-6-1 (81 points, 11 games remaining)
- (8) Montreal Canadiens: 7-3-1 (75 pts., 11 GR)
- (9) New York Islanders: 7-2-2 (74 pts., 11 GR)
- (10) New York Rangers: 7-1-2 (74 pts., 10 GR)
- (11) Columbus Blue Jackets: 8-3-1 (73 pts.,12 GR)
- (12) Detroit Red Wings: 8-0-2 (72 pts., 10 GR)
Montreal’s downward trend isn’t just seen in a lack of wins and now points. Their goals against have gone from three in the win versus the Ottawa Senators on March 18 to four, five, six, and then six again last night in Philadelphia. The defencemen, especially the most senior blue-liners, can no longer maintain their structure, and the goalies have been unable to bail them out.
The Canadiens still have one last trick up their sleeve that their counterparts don’t, and that is one of their best players set to come back into the lineup. Kaiden Guhle is recovered from his knee laceration and on the trip, and you have to expect that now is the time to put him back in the formation.
The Carolina Hurricanes aren’t an ideal opponent against which to give a player his first game in two months (the Canadiens could have eased him back in versus Philadelphia and perhaps stood a better chance last night, but alas). However, Guhle proved earlier in the season that he could be dropped right into the heat of battle when he missed two weeks in October and averaged 22 minutes in his first week back, so that shouldn’t be a great concern. At this point, the benefit of fresh legs would outweigh any rust he may have in first game or two.
| Canadiens | Statistics | Hurricanes |
|---|---|---|
| 33-29-9 | Record | 43-24-4 |
| 47.7% (26th) | Scoring-chances-for % | 57.3% (1st) |
| 3.00 (14th) | Goals per game | 3.21 (9th) |
| 3.34 (28th) | Goals against per game | 2.66 (8th) |
| 21.3% (19th) | PP% | 18.1% (25th) |
| 80.5% (13th) | PK% | 84.6% (1st) |
| 1-0-0 | Head-to-Head Record | 0-1-0 |
One reason to wait for the Hurricanes game to put Guhle back in (if that is indeed the plan) is that Carolina isn’t an overly physical team. They rank 30th in the NHL in hits dished out with only 1239 thrown this season; Montreal ranks seventh in that category with 500 more bodychecks landed. But they do lead the league in high-danger chances per 60 minutes of five-on-five time, so the physical test would come in trying to keep the front of the net clear and pinching off cycles in the defensive zone, two areas the Canadiens have been struggling with during the current slide.
Carolina had made a big splash earlier in the season to acquire Mikko Rantanen from the Colorado Avalanche, but that shocking trade didn’t pan out as expected and the superstar forward has since moved on to Dallas. Despite what can be evaluated as a failed experiment, the Hurricanes have still been one of the best teams coming out of the 4 Nations, and were able to take advantage of a relatively weak schedule following the deadline to win their next five games. They helped them pull away from the New Jersey Devils in the Metropolitan Division and all but secure home-ice advantage for the opening round. But recently they’ve run into a bit of trouble with some weaker clubs, losing 7-2 to the Los Angeles Kings and most recently 3-1 to the Nashville Predators.
There might be some concern creeping into the organization and fanbase as the team has suddenly had some issues scoring goals. Fortunately, newcomer Taylor Hall, acquired in the same transaction that initially brought Rantanen to Carolina, has been providing a needed offensive boost with six goals since the deadline three weeks ago. Mark Jankowski, whose NHL high is 17 goals for the Calgary Flames set seven years ago, also has six in that time. Maybe Hall can come close to maintaining that pace, but Jankowski, who has raised his NHL goal total by 10% in the past eight contests, probably can’t. Outside of those two players, only Seth Jarvis has more than two goals since the deadline, so the club may find its offence running dry at the wrong time once again.
Montreal already held them off the scoresheet recently with a 4-0 shutout win on February 25. We probably shouldn’t expect such a defensive display from Samuel Montembeault and the 18 skaters tonight, but we might be able to look forward to another four-goal game.. Montreal has scored at least four in 10 of the 17 games played since the 4 Nations break, and five times since standing pat at the trade deadline. They can score without a great deal of difficulty, they just need a more effective defensive strategy to prevent the Hurricanes from scoring more.
