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For the first time, Canada enters an Olympic gold medal game as the underdog

Feb 10, 2026; Milan, Italy; United States and Canada players shake hands after playing in women's ice hockey group A play during the Milano Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images

There are a lot of ways to describe a Canadian hockey team, but one word that is rarely used to describe them is “underdog.” On Thursday, that is exactly what Canada’s women’s hockey team will be as they face a rematch against the United States.

This situation, to be frank, is unprecedented. Last week’s 5-0 loss to the United States was their worst loss ever at the Olympics, and by extension, in the program’s history. Sure other games have had bigger scorelines but for it to happen on the biggest stage overshadows any World Championship loss.

It’s sometimes a contrived narrative, a team that has no business being considered underdogs saying that no one believed in them en route to a championship. This is not contrived. While many Canadian hockey fans are hopeful about their team’s chances in the gold medal game, not many are optimistic.

In 1998, the first Olympics for women’s hockey, Canada entered the tournament as the heavy favourite. Players from that team, even today, recall the pressure – nay expectation – on them as almost crippling. Most people remember that Canada did not win gold at the Nagano games. What they may not remember is a humbling preliminary-round loss. After opening up a 4-1 lead, Canada allowed six straight goals to lose 7-4.

Despite that, Canada still entered the gold medal game as favourites. In hindsight, it was pretty evident that the United States had caught up but before that game in Nagano, Canada had yet to lose a major international tournament.

Four years later, the tide had shifted. After Canada won the 2001 World Championship, the United States won eight straight games against Canada leading into the 2002 Olympics. For reference, that losing streak is one game longer than the one Canada is staring at right now. Canada and the United States did not meet in the Olympics before the Gold Medal Game.

The CBC broadcast of that game starts off by saying that the Americans are bigger, stronger, and just as skilled as the Canadians. The Americans may have been favoured, especially considering they were at home (even before accounting for the officiating) but Canada certainly was not an underdog.

In 2006, Canada faced Sweden for gold. In 2010, Canada had won five straight heading into the Olympics. Early in the 2014 tournament, Canada won the preliminary-round game. In 2018, the same thing. At the previous Olympics in 2022, Canada did as well, and was one of the more dominant teams in the sport’s Olympic history.

That brings us to Thursday. Canada’s preliminary-round loss came without Marie-Philip Poulin, who proved in the semifinal just how important she was to this team. While the Americans coasted to a 5-0 win over Sweden, Canada held on for a 2-1 win against Switzerland and didn’t look particularly dangerous. That isn’t to say that head coach Troy Ryan is about to channel his inner Herb Brooks or that a Canadian win would be a Miracle on Ice-level upset.

The underdog label, however, is very powerful. Look at how it fuelled Czechia on the men’s side against Canada. I don’t expect Canada to fully buy in to the underdog label. The rivalry is too deep. There is a certain expectation of being a Canadian team in a best-on-best hockey tournament, but the U.S. was already favoured to win gold before beating their top rivals 5-0 in the preliminary round.

The American team reminds me a lot of the Canadian 2022 Olympic team. It is a mix of established veterans playing at a high level, young players contributing and playing at their peak, and unreal goaltending. It’s a well-constructed team that doesn’t have many, if any, flaws. There’s a reason they are on a streak of over 330 minutes without allowing a single goal.

The beautiful thing about Thursday is that it all comes down to one game. While the previous seven games create a certain expectation of how things will play out, those results don’t really mean anything.

Sixty minutes (at least). For gold.

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