An interesting battle is shaping up for the Eastern Conference title in the second half of the 2008-09 season. The Boston Bruins (31-7-4) look to be currently running away from the Montreal Canadiens (25-10-6) for the conference title and Northeast division crown, but the fight down to the wire could be a much closer affair.
The Bruins currently have a 10 point gap between themselves and Montreal, but that lead would become quite a deceptive one should the Canadiens triumph in their next meeting with Boston tomorrow night, and then win the game they have in hand over the Bruins.
The lead would then be cut down to six points, and the Canadiens might well have their destiny in their hands with two more contests remaining against the Bruins. 
With all the variables of existing tendencies taken into consideration, it appears that so far the Bruins have been beneficiaries of a lighter schedule in terms of the strength of opponants played through 42 games.
By dividing the league’s 30 teams in to three groups based on points accumulated so far, it is seen that Boston have played a larger share of their games, 16 in all, against the lower third of NHL teams, whereas Montreal have played against those same clubs 11 times. Similarly, Boston has a slight edge in games played against the middle third of ranked teams, by a 17 to 15 games margin. Most importantly, the Canadiens have played 15 contests against the top 10 teams in the league, where Boston has only met these opponants 9 times.
Consequently, the Canadiens appear to have a larger remaining share of games against weaker opponants.
Balancing out the equation is that the Bruins schedule includes 21 home dates to Montreal’s 19.
Boston’s record versus the top third of the NHL thus far is 5-2-2 over 9 games, for 12 of a possible 18 points. These teams include San Jose Sharks (0-0), Detroit Red Wings (1-0), Washington Capitals (0-1), Montreal Canadiens (2-0-1), Philadelphia Flyers (0-0), Calgary Flames (0-1), New York Rangers (0-0-1), Chicago Blackhawks (1-0) and New Jersey Devils (1-0).
The Bruins have 18 games remaining against these teams, 12 of which are at home.
Montreal’s record versus the top third of the NHL so far is 8-5-2 over 15 games, for 18 of a possible 30. Their record against these teams thus far is San Jose Sharks (0-0), Boston Bruins (1-1-1), Detroit Red Wings (1-0), Washington Capitals (1-2), Philadelphia Flyers (2-1), Calgary Flames (1-0), New York Rangers (2-0), Chicago Blackhawks (0-0) and New Jersey Devils (0-1-1).
The Canadiens have 12 games remaining against these clubs, 5 of which are on home ice.
Aside from the three head to head contests between the Habs and Bruins, here is where Montreal could have an edge.
The Bruins have 4 games remaining with the Flyers; Montreal has just one.
The Bruins have 3 games remaining with the Capitals; Montreal has just one.
The Bruins have 3 games remaining with the Rangers; Montreal has two.
The Bruins have 3 games remaining with the Devils; Montreal has two.
Boston’s record so far against these teams is a combined 1-1-1. Montreal’s record is against these teams is 5-3-2. The Bruins face these four clubs 13 times, with the Canadiens having only six meetings left against the same.
Both teams have a home game remaining against the Sharks, and both Montreal and Boston have won their only scheduled game against the Red Wings this season.
The Bruins have lost their only meeting with the Flames, while the Canadiens, who have already beaten Calgary, have one meeting left.
Boston defeated Chicago earlier in the season when the Blackhawks were stumbling, but both the Habs and Bruins will now face a stronger opponant once each. 
The Bruins record against clubs ranked 11th to 20th is 11-4-2 in 17 games for 24 of a possible 34 points. These teams include the Vancouver Canucks (1-0), Buffalo Sabres (2-2-1), Anaheim Ducks (0-0), Phoenix Coyotes (0-0), Carolina Hurricanes (3-0), Florida Panthers (2-0), Colorado Avalanche (1-0), Columbus Blue Jackets (0-0), Pittsburgh Penguins (2-0-1), and Minnesota Wild (0-2).
Boston has 8 games remaining against these teams, only 3 of which are on home ice.
The Canadiens record against clubs ranked 11th to 20th is 9-3-3 in 15 games for 21 of a possible 30 points. These teams include Vancouver Canucks (0-0), Buffalo Sabres (2-0-1), Anaheim Ducks (0-1), Phoenix Coyotes (1-0), Carolina Hurricanes (1-2-1), Florida Panthers (3-0), Colorado Avalanche (0-0), Columbus Blue Jackets (0-0-1), Pittsburgh Penguins (1-0), and Minnesota Wild (1-0).
Montreal has ten games remaining against this group of teams, 4 of which are at home.
Boston have played two more games against this group than the Canadiens have, and they have won them both. Apart from that, their records against these teams are quite similar. What makes this group deceiving is the inclusion of Anaheim, Carolina, and Pittsburgh – two Cup winners and a finalist in the last three seasons – who should be faring much better than their individual records attest.
It would be a complete guessing game to suggest than either Boston or Montreal have an edge here, but this is how it breaks down:
Versus teams mentioned above – Pittsburgh, Anaheim, and Carolina – Boston have a combined 5-0-1 record against, with three games remaining. Montreal is a combined 2-3-1 against the same, with only 3 games remaining against the Penguins. Two of those three games are at home.
Boston have yet to play Anaheim, to whom the Canadiens have lost to earlier in the season.
Montreal has one game left against the Hurricanes, who have been a thorny foe so far. The Bruins have won all 3 games against Carolina and have one matchup left to play.
Against the six teams in this group in which the Canadiens have ten games remaining, their record is 6-0-2. They have yet to match up with Vancouver or Colorado. Boston have beaten both those clubs in their only meetings against them.
Montreal have a home and away series with the Canucks, whom the Bruins have already beaten.
Against the eight teams in this group in which the Bruins have 8 games remaining, their record is 9-2-2.
Boston have one game left with Buffalo, who have taken 5 of a possible 10 points from the Bruins. The Canadiens have three tilts left with the Sabres, having won twice against them, with an opening season shootout loss thrown in.
The Canadiens won their lone meeting with the Coyotes, while Boston will play them while they are in contention for a playoff position.
The Bruins have two games remaining with Florida, who are currently 1 point out of a playoff spot. Boston has won the two previous meetings with the Panthers, while Montreal have taken all three games between the clubs.
Montreal lost its only meeting Columbus in a shootout, and the Bruins have one game left against the Blue Jackets, who are one point off from a playoff spot at the moment.
Montreal and Boston have both completed their season series with the Minnesota Wild. The Canadiens have won their lone contest, while the Bruins have dropped their two meeting with the Wild.
Boston has played 16 games against the lower third ranked NHL clubs and have a 15-1 record for 30 of a possible 32 points. This has included games against the Edmonton Oilers (1-0), Nashville Predators (0-0), Dallas Stars (1-0), Los Angeles Kings (0-0), Toronto Maple Leafs (3-1), St Louis Blues (1-0), Tampa Bay Lightning (2-0), Atlanta Thrashers (4-0), Ottawa Senators (2-0), and New York Islanders (1-0).
The Bruins have 14 games remaining against these teams, 6 of them on home ice.
Montreal has met the lower third on 11 occassions so far and have an 8-2-1 record against these clubs, for 17 of a possible 22 points. This includes games against the Edmonton Oilers (0-0), Nashville Predators (0-0), Dallas Stars (0-0), Los Angeles Kings (0-0), Toronto Maple Leafs (2-1), St Louis Blues (1-0), Tampa Bay Lightning (1-1), Atlanta Thrashers (1-0), Ottawa Senators (2-0), and New York Islanders (1-0-1).
The Canadiens have 19 games remaining against these teams, 10 of which are on home ice.
At the halfway point in the NHL schedule, four of these ten teams would seem to have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. Presently, the Oilers, Predators, Stars, and Kings are all within a five point stricking distance of the post season.
Against those four clubs, Boston has two games remaining – a road game in Nashville, and a home game against Los Angeles. So far this season, they have beaten Dallas and Edmonton, while the Canadiens have yet to meet any of these four teams.
Montreal will meet these four teams still in contention a total of five times this season. They have a home and away series with Edmonton, home games against Nashville and Los Angeles, and a road game against Dallas.
That leaves the six league doormats – Toronto, St Louis, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Ottawa, and the New York Islanders, who might all have eyes more focused on John Tavares than a playoff berth.
The Bruins have played a total of 14 games against these clubs, winning 13 and losing one to Toronto. Montreal, for their part, have a 8-2-1 record in 11 games against the bottom six.
Boston will play 12 times against these clubs, while Montreal will meet them 14 times.
Both Boston and Montreal, logic dictates, should win all these game, but it should be noted that only 5 of Boston’s 12 meetings are on home ice, while Montreal plays 7 at home and an equal number on the road.
For both Boston and Montreal, perception and speculation tend to lend creedence to such games as being two points in the bag, but wins are never that simply cut and dried.
In a final analysis, the schedule would seem to favor the Canadiens in the longer haul, but that also leads to amisrepresentation of where teams will stand when the Bruins and Habs catch up with them.
Fans should balance their rabid fervor for a tilt favoring the Canadiens along the remaining schedule with the realities of injuries and unknowns.
Through 41 games thus far, Montreal has overcome a series of games lost to speedbumps, injuries and powerplay inefficiency, to post a better first half record than in 2007-08, when they were the surprise of the NHL. This season, with all opponants firmly ready for what Montreal has to offer, the Canadiens are possibly doing better than expected, even if that means taking a backseat in the current standings to the Bruins.
It might seem crucial at this moment that the Canadiens defeat the Bruins tomorrow, and then win their game in hand to close the 10 point gap.
Should they fail in that, hopes hardly end there for a team that has continuously risen in compromised adversity. As an underdog against a favored Bruins clunb, the Habs have made it a tradition to take a Stanley Cup sized bite out of the collective Bruin’s keisters.
Schedule favors or not, I like the Habs odds either way!
