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How long can Tomas Fleischmann keep up his current pace?

Tomas Fleischmann has been lights-out for the Canadiens, but what do the underlying numbers say about his game?

By Matt Drake
Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

When Tomas Fleischmann came to the Canadiens on a professional tryout contract, he was looking to carve himself a spot in the lineup, and he has been able to do just that.

Signed at the very affordable price of $750,000 for the season, he also didn't have exorbitant expectations placed upon him, allowing him to simply play his game. This has translated to some seriously impressive production, as the 31-year-old has put up 15 points so far through 22 games with the club.

Right now, many are thinking that there probably isn't a better-looking contract out there than that of Tomas Fleischmann. I decided to take a look at a few comparably priced free agents signed prior to this season, and see how Fleischmann stacks up.

Player Age AAV Team GP G60 A60 P60 CF% PDO PSh% iHSC ZSO% TOI/Gm
Steve Bernier 30 0.75 NYI 11 0.5 0.5 0.9 50 99.1 5.6 8 42.4 12
Jiri Tlusty 27 0.8 N.J 16 0 0.3 0.3 47.7 100.3 0 4 45.7 12.3
Scottie Upshall 31 0.7 STL 16 1 0 1 54.6 96.8 10 2 41.4 10.8
Brad Boyes 33 0.7 TOR 16 0.4 1.6 2 54.8 97.8 7.7 17 53.8 9.3
Tomas Fleischmann 31 0.75 MTL 22 1.3 1.5 2.8 48.1 104.6 18.2 13 46.2 12.8
Adam Cracknell 30 0.575 VAN 16 1 0.3 1.3 47.2 99.9 13 9 42.7 11.4
Mike Santorelli 29 0.875 ANA 19 0.6 0.3 1 50.6 97.2 11.1 7 61.9 9.8
Jarret Stoll 33 0.8 NYR 19 0.3 0.6 0.8 40.7 108.7 6.7 7 12.9 11.2
Matt Cullen 38 0.8 PIT 20 0.4 1.1 1.4 46.8 105.6 5.6 11 44 8.4
  • All of these contracts fall into a range you could call "bargain" territory, but only one of them is producing at a high rate, and that is Fleischmann. None are producing points at his level, and only Brad Boyes has more high-danger scoring chances. He looks like a real steal in this regard.
  • In fact, Boyes, Cullen, and Cracknell all look like steals as well, but if there's one that takes the cake here, it's definitely Fleischmann.
  • There is a caveat to Fleischmann's production though, as the Habs are being out-attempted when he is on the ice at even strength, and he is riding a very high personal shooting percentage.
  • His career shooting percentage is just over 10%, so he's likely to regress sooner than later. He simply cannot be expected to hold at 18% forever, although that would be great for his team.
  • The strength of Montreal's goaltending is also a factor. As seen in the table above, Fleischmann has a high PDO, which means he's been fortunate in his own end as well as offensively.
    • What the numbers are saying about Fleischmann is that he's had some incredibly good luck so far this year. That isn't to say that he hasn't been good, because he's done very well to bury his chances.

    If there is an intangible worth mentioning at this juncture, it would be the great chemistry that exists between Fleischmann and his linemates, David Desharnais and Dale Weise. While regression is probable, they have shown time and time again that they are very dangerous in the offensive end, and show little signs of slowing down.

    It's impossible to say how long he can keep this up. His pace may not be sustainable, but when you watch him play, it is clear that he has the ability to bury any chance that is given to him. His short-handed marker against the New York Islanders is a perfect example; an individual play that he starts and finishes himself. If he can keep pulling those off, who knows what he's capable of.

    It's pretty hard to criticize his play given the numbers he's putting up, especially considering his bargain salary. That said, it wouldn't be surprising to see the pundits jump all over him when regression strikes.

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