Introduction
Koivu. The name carries a story in Montreal for obvious reasons, and when it rang out in Sphere with his new address in Montreal, the printing presses started working overtime.
Aatos Koivu had an interesting season. He started out on the TPS under-18 team where he played half the season, and was moved up to the U20s for the next half. There was a break in January when he played four games in Liiga, the Finnsih top league, due to injury troubles in TPS. The season was finished off with a call to join the National Under-18 Team — a team he can join next year as well — where he played five games and notched an assist.
Whereas Saku was more of a playmaker, Aatos is currently finding his usage as a finisher, possessing a high-quality shot. Having a June birthday means that he is almost a full year behind the earliest draftees in the 2024 NHL Draft. His old coach in TPS U20s, Frederik Norrena (now with the Cologne Sharks), mentions that he can see the defensive game being built up over time. Traditionally, you let younger players come in and play offence then work on the defence.
Norrena also points out that over the past 18 months, Koivu has taken massive steps forward. It wasn’t planned that he would move up to the U20 team — he wasn’t even invited to the U20 summer training — but they couldn’t help but notice his play in the first half of the season. With a year like that, it makes it more understandable that Montreal took him in the third round, even if he was projected later in most pre-draft coverage.
Nothing really stood out in Koivu’s game at the U20 level except for controlled entries. Norrena did mention another similarity between Saku and Aatos: they can both beat players one-on-one, something that is becoming more difficult in the professional game.
Voting
Just four panellists placed Koivu within their Top 25, with eight outside, including the community vote. Koivu beat out Filip Eriksson for the last spot on the countdown by 0.13 points, and forms a plateau consisting of himself, Eriksson, Emil Heineman, and number 24 on the list, all separated by less than a point.
The community voting for Koivu was spread from a highest vote at 12 to a vote at 54 as the lowest. However, the majority of the votes are within the bracket stretching from 20-37, with a particular focus on 25th as some voters made sure to get him on their list at the final official position.
History of #25
| Year | #25 |
|---|---|
| 2023 | Lias Andersson |
| 2022 | Oliver Kapanen |
| 2021 | Jacob Olofsson |
| 2020 | Jacob Olofsson |
| 2019 | Gustav Olofsson / Jordan Harris |
| 2018 | Brett Lernout |
| 2017 | Cale Fleury |
| 2016 | Max Friberg / Jeremy Grégoire |
| 2015 | Mac Bennett |
| 2014 | Jeremy Grégoire |
| 2013 | Patrick Holland |
| 2012 | Gabriel Dumont |
| 2011 | Morgan Ellis |
| 2010 | Maxim Trunev |
Strengths
It is easy to pinpoint Aatos’s shot, which is very good, even if he wasn’t able to show it much in the latter half of his draft year. His one-timer is both quick and accurate, as evidenced in the World Junior Summer Showcase tournament when he scored on Canada in Finland’s 8-4 loss. He can shoot standing still or in the middle of a stride, or thread a pass into the high-danger area for a teammate. That makes him difficult to read, and goalies will have to be ready for anything. While his shot is both accurate and quick, he could use it a bit more selectively.
His production has mostly come on the power play, and the probable explanation for this is that he plays against players that are two to three years older at even strength. It will take time to find his five-on-five production at a higher level.
Weaknesses
Defensive-zone reads and physicality are the two areas he needs to work on most. Both can be explained by his lack of experience, and a lack of exposure in the case of his defensive-zone work. It is customary to play a younger player to their strengths, and Koivu’s strength is in the offensive zone. He will get more defensive-zone deployments this year as he has gotten older and most likely has used the summer to add to his weight.
He also needs to work on his play-driving. As a centre, he needs to be more than the shooter he is at the moment. He has to be able to control the play, to command the puck and use his passing skills to set up plays rather than just trying to finish them off.
Projection
Koivu is young, and even if he is currently practising with the TPS Liiga team, he could follow a similar path as another young Finnish player in the Canadiens’ system. Oliver Kapanen only played a limited amount of games in Liiga during his draft-plus-one year in order to be able to challenge for the rookie of the year award in his draft-plus-two campaign.
It would also be good for Koivu to strengthen both his offensive and defensive game before moving up permanently to the professional ranks by playing in the U20 league. He can work on his development at a slower pace, with more room for success, especially considering his physical stature. Nothing should be held against Koivu’s development if he plays in the Finnish U20 league instead of Liiga. On the contrary, this might benefit his long-term success. In order to be able to play centre at a higher level, Koivu needs to be more involved in the action than he currently is. If not, he could still develop into an option as a shoot-first winger.
As for this season’s progress, one would expect Koivu to play for the Finnish Under-18 Team in May. The question is if he can make the World Juniors team for Finland come December as a double under-ager.
Former TPS Turku U20 coach and current Kölner Haie (Cologne Sharks) head coach Fredrik Norrena joins the podcast to talk about Aatos Koivu.
1:00 – Aatos Koivu
15:30 – Aatos Koviu vs Oliver Kapanen development path.
17:00 – Commercial Break
17:15 – Frederik Norrena’s NHL career.
19:00 – Winning the SHL with Frölunda.
Saku Koivu sits down with Patrik Bexell for an exclusive interview in 2016
