Ever since Joyce's now (in)famous article made an off-hand remark that the Canadiens had no prospects I got the urge to check out how the pipeline is doing, at least from a superficial points standing. Before looking at the results we should go over what NHLE is and isn't to avoid confusion.

What NHLE is:

- A translation of what the average relationship between the counting stats (goals, points) of players in NHL feeder leagues and their counting stats in the NHL in following seasons.

- Its a tool for tracking scoring of prospects and comparing them across leagues.

- Tends to be fairly accurate at guessing the ballpark levels of offense a player might provide if they make the jump to the NHL next season.

-A good way to keep track of a player's performance from year to year as they shift from league to league.

What NHLE is not:

- Universally a good indication of a player's offense. It tends to get very pronounced flaws for players outside the typical range of age an NHL prospect that is following a typical development process will be playing at. 20+ year old CHL players or 24+ year old AHLers don't tend to be as good as their NHLE number.

- It also makes no statement about the relatively likelihood of a player to translate well (i.e. retain most of their scoring) or poorly (i.e. not score nearly as well in a higher league) beyond which league they played in. For example, this season Louis Leblanc has scored at a better NHLE rate in the NHL itself than he has in lower leagues like the AHL and CHL, while Gaberial Dumont's production has cratered ever since graduating into the pro game.

- A flat out comparison of which player is better than the other. There is much more to hockey than scoring.

We will be looking at Montreal's prospects including all those that are playing (which excludes Nash, Trunev and Cichy) at a league were justifiable comparisons may be made (excluding Pribyl) who are performing at a level that shows the glimmer of an NHL future (excluding the bottom of the AHL depth chart).

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I don't know where the obsession has come from in recent years in comparing the Canadian hockey teams against each other, rather than against the whole league they belong to. There is no Canadian Championship, no award that goes with having the best hockey team in Canada. The Stanley Cup and the less revered Presidents Trophy (and even lesser revered Prince of Wales/Clarence Campbell Trophies) are what the teams have to play for, and they are league and conference based, not nationality based. I mean, we in Canada like our teams, and like to talk pucks, but there is no benefit to winning some fictitious competition amongst the now 7 Canadian teams.

I bring this up because because The Globe & Mail's hockey blog, the Globe on Hockey, seems to think that a comparison of the Canadian teams' total NHL games amongst draft picks from the arbitratry date of 2008 was relevant enough for a piece regarding the call-up of Louis Leblanc. The general idea behind it is that since the Canadiens exceptional draft year of 2007 (which they don't praise as such, but nevermind), the Canadiens haven't had a player make the NHL until Leblanc's call-up (and he may not even play, BTW). So, according to them, the Canadiens are obviously falling behind in terms of young talent to the other Canadian teams. Well, let's look at why this might be, shall we?

1. The Canadiens haven't sucked in this time frame.

In 2008, the year this story begins, the Canadiens finished 1st in the Eastern Conference. That year, only Calgary made the playoffs of the other Canadian teams, in 7th in the West. In 2009, the Canadiens squeaked into the playoffs in the 8th seed, while Vancouver and Calgary both made the post-season dance. In 2010, the Canadiens again squeaked into the 8th seed, while Ottawa finished in the #5 seed in the East, and Vancouver won the Northwest Division as the lone Western Canadian team. In 2011, the Canadiens made the playoffs again as the 6th seed, while Vancouver again was the only Western Canadian team.

In this four year time frame, Montreal was the only Canadian team to make the playoffs every season, and therefore had no picks in the top 14 of any Entry Draft. Three current Canadian franchises never made the playoffs at all (Toronto, Winnipeg/Atlanta, and Edmonton), while Ottawa made it only once. I don't think the Canadiens should apologize for trying to win the Stanley Cup, even if they didn't achieve that goal in that time frame. Only Vancouver has had more success than the Canadiens in this time frame: the Canucks are 5-3 in playoff series and won the Presidents Trophy and Clarence Campbell Trophy, while the Canadiens went 3-4 in playoff series without winning any hardware.

BTW, here's what this unauthored blog post (EDIT: Sean Gordon has since put his name up as the author) had to say about this fact:

True, the Habs have a veteran group and are usually a playoff team

No. Not usually. The Habs have always been a playoff team in this period of time you're referring to.

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The number one entry on this list is not a surprise. In a repeat of last season, the EOTP contributors once again selected Carey Price as the top player under 25 in the Montreal Canadiens system. One second place vote denied Price a unanimous ranking by the panel and a slight improvement on 2010. 

In 2011 we witnessed the resurrection  of Jesus Price, a re-birth that seemed less than obvious when we selected Price as the number one player under 25 a year ago. Even though evidence existed to convince us that history was on Price's side, you can never judge a players character or desire to meet his physical potential. Trying to interpret body language is a fools game and with the intense pressure that manifested itself in pre-season booing, fans were left with trusting his elite physical tool-set and hoping for mental maturation. Not all fans chose to offer that trust, Price rewarded those who did with a Vezina worthy campaign in 2011, as well as taking the first step in exorcising his playoff demons.

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What is there left to say about P.K. Subban? A year ago Subban surprised Habs fans by seamlessly transitioning from the AHL to the NHL playoffs where he was a key asset in ousting the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins, especially after Andrei Markov went down. After dominating the AHL and setting a Hamilton Bulldogs record for goals for a defenseman, many were still skeptical about Subban's ability to become a regular in the NHL.

Subban seems to have quelled every doubter he had in a single season. At the beginning of the season, many of his critics were right in that he wasn't responsible defensively and he took far too many risks. For a time it looked like he was in Jacques Martin's doghouse for good, but after sitting a few games in November, Subban stepped up big time as the Montreal Canadiens lost both Andrei Markov and Josh Gorges.

While Subban struggled to adapt to NHL defense, his offense also suffered. He only registered 11 points in his first 33 NHL games, along with just 2 goals. Once given a heavier workload and unshackled from being paired with Alexandre Picard; Subban exploded with 12 goals and 27 points in the last 44 games. Over that time he also joined Hal Gill on the top pairing on the penalty kill. A daunting task for a rookie to begin with, made even more challenging by the fact that Montreal spent more time on the penalty kill than any team in the league. What's most surprising about Subban's season is that while he was excellent offensively, his defense is what truly stood out.

After the trade for James Wisniewski, Subban was relied on by Jacques Martin to face the top lines of other teams every night as Roman Hamrlik and Wisniewski mopped up the secondary match-ups. While facing that high end competition Subban managed to put up the 8th best relative Corsi among defensemen who played 60+ games. Impressively Subban's Corsi numbers are padded by his own shot total, also 8th among defensemen. The numbers suggest that while Subban was on the ice, the Canadiens had possession of the puck far more often than their opponents at even strength.

After setting a rookie record in the AHL Subban nearly matched the Habs goalscoring record for rookie defenseman as well. In the end Subban fell 1 goal short of Guy Lapointe's 15 goal rookie season, but to edge so close to one of the all time greats is an indicator that we have one heck of a goal scorer on our hands. Only 5 defensemen managed outscore Subban this the NHL last season, one of whom is perennial all-star and certain first ballot hall-of-famer Nicklas Lidstrom.

To put Subban's goal totals in context; only one rookie defenseman has outscored Subban in the last 13 seasons, and that was Dion Phaneuf, who at the time was considered a phenom.

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For years the Habs faithful have demanded the team find and develop a good power forward, and in Pacioretty they may have finally found their man.

Expectations for Pacioretty were not exactly high last summer. He followed up a very good 18 year old year in Michigan with two years split between AHL and NHL were he wasn't particular outstanding in either. In particular, his inability to score goals at the professional level led many to doubt his ability to grow beyond a checking role. When we made these rankings last year he was 7th overall and the 5th forward by the rankings. Our assessment wasn't all that glowing either saying:

"Perhaps it's a matter of him needing some catching up, but his offensive game has yet to translate at the professional level.  Still, there is quite a lot to like about his game.  He didn't hurt the team at all last year during his 52 games, all from the start of the season, but he wasn't progressing, either.  His solid skating, strong physical play, and unselfish game gave him passing grades as a third line player.  Unfortunately, the Habs are expecting more from him than that.  

This inability to translate his offensive game as a professional (he also only has 8 goals in 55 career AHL games) has brought up some interesting questions.  Topham at Lions in Winter, who took part in this project, wonders if Pacioretty might be worth converting into a defender, given his strong skating ability, good passing, and strong understanding of the defensive game.  It's a bit of a left field proposition, but we have seen players like Craig Rivet and Andrei Markov move from forward to defense with great success, so there is precedent.  However, doing so would be giving up on one of the Habs more promising forward prospects, and at this point seems unnecessary."

Pacioretty immediately started proving people wrong this year with a flat out dominant performance in the AHL Scoring 17 goals and 32 points in 27 games in Hamilton during which time it was possible he was the best player in the entire league. This was more than enough to earn him a call up to Montreal in order to fill the team's biggest hole on the 2nd line LW.

Pacioretty's breakout year continued in the NHL. Its not much of a stretch to suggest he was the second best forward on the team behind Plekanec during his time in the NHL. His 14 goals and 24 points in 37 games prorate out to 31 goals and 53 points over a full season. His success wasn't just a result of a lucky shooting streak either, converting on a fairly typical 12.5% of his shots and the victim of a fairly low 7.01% team shooting rate at even strength. If anything this indicates that he was an even better offensive producer than his pro-rated stats would suggest.

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Ladies and gentlemen, meet the new guy.  As the 2011 NHL Entry Draft unfolded, something strange happened:  the Canadiens, sitting with the 17th overall pick, watched as a guy viewed by many as a top 10 selection slipped into their fingers.  There was no discernible reason for the fall:  Nathan Beaulieu doesn't offer up many red flags as a prospect, having that rare distinction of having a solid basic skill set that should easily translate into professional hockey, as well as the smarts to potentially thrive in the show.  While Canadiens fans may have been happy to see Louis Leblanc end up available when the Canadiens picked in 2009, it wasn't considered a real surprise.  Beaulieu, on the other hand, caught most fans off guard. 

Here at SB Nation, we conducted our own mock draft, and Beaulieu went 7th overall to the Winnipeg Jets.  Oddly enough, the real life Jets took the selection we made for the Canadiens at #17:  Mark Schiefele.  I'd have made the Schiefele for Beaulieu trade before the draft and I'd still make it today.  While Schiefele possesses a nice two-way ability down the middle, there's nothing quite like a smart, puck-moving defenseman who can make a perfect pass, be it from his defensive zone or diagonally through the box on the PP. 

It's kind of an important job, and not an easy skill to find.  The Canadiens have been blessed with Andrei Markov's passing for the past decade, but few on the team in that time period have even come close to matching him. 

Beaulieu's story is getting to be well known.  His father, Jacques, has been a coach in junior hockey circles for quite a while now, and Nathan grew up around the London Knights rink watching Rick Nash, Corey Perry and those powerhouse clubs of the early-to-mid 2000s.  Jacques took the coaching gig in Saint John and as a result, the Ontario born Nathan ended up playing in the Q instead of the OHL.  His dad was replaced by Gerard Gallant and Jacques went back to London, leaving Nathan behind on a team that, well... was stacked.  After winning the Memorial Cup, Beaulieu was one of three Sea Dogs selected in the first round of the Entry Draft, and the team stands a strong chance of getting back to the Cup this year, especially if all three return.

Nathan is, by far, the highest debut on our list this year.  He's already considered a Top 5 player by our panel, and I don't think I'm going out on a limb in saying that he has the potential to be the #1 player on this list in the future.

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The highest drafted forward by Montreal since Andrei Kostitsyn (although Lars Eller and Benoit Pouliot were selected earlier) and the biggest Quebec prospect taken since Guillaume Latendresse, Louis Leblanc has become something of a magnet for attention among Habs prospects.

Leblanc has followed a somewhat convoluted path as a prospect thus far, playing first in the USHL followed by a NCAA stint at Harvard which he then left to play as a 19 year old in the QMJHL. While he has never quite been a leading player in any of those leagues, in each case he was the best and most productive forward on the squad

Leblanc played very well on team Canada in a variety of roles and was one of the team's leading scorers despite minimal power play time. He was third among Canadian forwards in points (7 in 7 games), non-power play goals (3) and shots (16 in 7 games) and tied for 2nd in plus minus (+6) and may have been the 2nd most productive Canadian player off the power play (Ryan Johansen scored 3 times with the man advantage and was only +4 to Leblanc's +6). Overall, his performance was statistically quite similar to Zach Boychuk in 2009 and Brad Marchand in 2008. While often too much is read into short tournament performances, over the past decade being good enough to be a top nine player on team Canada is a strong indication that a player will be good enough have a decent NHL career, with those not making it usually hampered in development by injuries. Generally Canada is so deep in forwards that playing well enough make the team in a significant role requires a young man to have some serious talent.

He was less impressive statistically in the QMJHL despite being the leading player on a strong Montreal Junior's squad.  He reportedly played less minutes than most top junior players on a team with a balanced line approach and heavily defensive system.He was also the leading shots per game player in the QMJHL (4.706 over the next with 4.591) and comparable to leading prospects Sean Couturier and Jonathan Huberdeau in "dangerous shots" (scoring chances) per game (2.196 to 2.379 and 2.418). Lower goal totals is likely due to a combination of being "snake-bitten" and a year-long shoulder injury. His pre-injury scoring totals (~1.4 ppg) may be more indicative of his true talent than the full season.  

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It's been three years since Danny Kristo was selected 56th overall in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, but he still remains in the Top 10 in our Under 25 countdown.

After a successful 2009-10 rookie season with the University of North Dakota Fighting Sioux, highlighted by an NCAA championship, WCHA Rookie of the Year honors and a 2010 World Junior Gold Medal, his sophomore season was a bit of a roller coaster.

He was suspended for a pre-season game, for violating team policy, and it wasn't until mid-November that he recorded his first goal. Kristo then picked up his game, registering 5 goals and 17 assists in 29 games (17 points in his last dozen), before a frost-bitten foot shut him down.

He returned to record 7 points in 6 games, and was an integral part in North Dakota's semi final berth in the Frozen Four. "I was feeling some pressure from (winning) the rookie of the year, but I was averaging about two points a game from December on," said Kristo leading up to the NCAA championship. "Now, I’m focused on getting in better shape and helping the team win a national championship."

"At one point I felt he was having an abysmal season," said Lions In Winter's Chris Topham. "But he wrapped it up with decent totals. He plays in the top division of the NCAA, and he's proving to be a big prospect."

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