FanPost

A statistical look at Nikita Scherbak.

DRAFT RESULT

Some scouts were touting him as a top 10 talent but he would drop because

1) he is Russian

2) Saskatoon sucks. I mean, they suck really hard, the make the the Maple Leafs game 7 collapse look good.

He was the 15th ranked NA prospect. There were 20 NA prospects taken before him, 17 were forwards, 12 were from the CHL.

QUALITY OF TEAM MATES

He was on an abysmal team, the third worst in the WHL when we count win loss record. 5th worst offense scoring only 207 goals in 72 games (2.875 G/Gm). 2nd worst defense with 317 goals allowed (4.4 GA/Gm.

OFFENSIVE EFFECT ON TEAM

He has a decent stat line of

65GP. 28G. 50A. 78P(1.2PPG) -6

Time on ice estimate is approximately 20 minutes per game (as per extra skater).

He collected points on 41.7% of his teams goals, and scored 35 points more than his next teammate. His team scores 4.1 goals per 60 (points per 60/point share of .842). That is equivalent to 295 goals over the 72 game season. It is hard to tell how much of the goals that are scored with him on the ice wouldn't be if they didn't have them. Let's say that without him playing a game for the blades they would of scored 10 less goals in the season. That is close to a 100 goal difference.

DEFENSIVE EFFECT ON TEAM

That -6 is not very pretty maybe he is a bad defensive player? Well his team allowed an average of 4.4 GA per game. He had 1.2 GA per game while he was on the ice. That is a 3.6 GA per 60 when he is on the ice, and a 6.6 GA per 60 when he is off the ice.

What looks even better is that of players who played 50 games or more, only 12 WHL players (out of over 300...313 if I counted right) faced tougher competition than he did. Why? Because if you shut down Scherbak, you won the game, by a wide margin.

SYNOPSIS OF ABOVE

- Nikita Scherbak, while facing the 13th toughest competition in the whl (the toughest of the 3 CHL leagues), and playing along side plugs, managed to neutralize the other teams best players coming out a flat 0 in goal differential (1.2-1.2) per game.

COMPARISON TO OTHER DRAFT ELIGIBLE CHL FORWARDS

Points per 60 minutes played

- 5th with 3.5, behind Draisaitl(4.0), Reinhart(3.7), Hawryluk(3.7) and Nikolishin (3.6). Behind only 2 OHL players(Bennett/fabbri) and 1 QMJHL player (Ehlers). 8th in CHL

Even Strength Points per 60

- 4th with 2.8 behind Schmidli(3.2), hawryluk(3.2), Draisaitl(2.9). Behind 5 OHL players (Bennett, Fabbri, Mangiapane, Watson, Ho-sang) and 1 QMJHL player (Ehlers). 10th in CHL.

On ice Goals for % relative to his team

- 1st in the CHL with +19.1% ahead of Reinhart(15.8%), hawryluk(14.9%), Draisaitl(12.3%), Zwerger(10.2%).

On ice point share

- 84.2% good for 5th, behind Draisaitl(91.8%), Reinhart(90%), hawryluk(86.3%), Schmidli(85.7%) behind 2 players in the OHL (Magiapane, and Dal Colle) and no one in the QMJHL (I took out scrub 3rd/4th liners for this stat). 7th in CHL.

Quality of Competition

- 3rd(30.3%) after Draisaitl(31%) and Vertanen(30.5%), he would be 15th in the OHL, and 10th in the QMJHL. Highmore is the highest in the CHL (QMJHL) at 31.8% so there isn't much variation here for top players. But to be honest I just put this one here because it is bad for him when compared to the entire CHL. I don't know how they come up with QOC TOI%.

CONCLUSION

The numbers indicate he was one of the top 10 forwards in the draft, at least in the CHL. Had his passport been canadian, and had he played on a decent team, let's say the Kooteney Ice, or vancouver giants. He would have been a top 10 pick.

N.B numbers come from Eliteprospect, canucksarmy and some were calculated on my own.

Fanpost content is created by members of the community and is not published by the authors, editors, or manager of Eyes on the Prize.

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