Mr. Price, is your save percentage sustainable? - John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
We're almost 50% of the way through the lockout shortened season, are the Habs looking as good as they were after 10 games?
After 10 games we looked at how teams were performing in possession, and which teams were lucky or unlucky. How have those trends changed since?
Once again we'll look at possession, with Fenwick as our proxy, and see how the dice are rolling for teams on shooting ance save percentages.
For explanations of the terms used, please refer to the glossary.
| Team | Time on ice | Shooting % | Save % | PDO | Fenwick % | Change in Fenwick % |
| Kings | 222:31 |
8.87 |
95.06 |
1039 |
60.5 |
-0.8 |
| Penguins | 229:34 |
11.43 |
90.43 |
1019 |
57.3 |
+1.0 |
| Red Wings | 215:52 |
5.79 |
90.00 |
958 |
56.4 |
+0.3 |
| Sharks | 317:31 |
6.37 |
97.01 |
1034 |
54.6 |
-0.6 |
| Blues | 242:42 |
10.71 |
93.48 |
1042 |
54.6 |
+1.2 |
| Flames | 284:34 |
7.69 |
89.55 |
972 |
53.9 |
-0.9 |
| Canucks | 271:37 |
8.70 |
92.97 |
1017 |
53.6 |
+4.2 |
| Bruins | 241:47 |
8.97 |
91.41 |
1004 |
53.3 |
+0.7 |
| Canadiens | 292:33 |
7.09 |
96.46 |
1036 |
53.3 |
-3.4 |
| Stars | 327:30 |
11.39 |
93.29 |
1047 |
53.0 |
+2.6 |
| Blackhawks | 316:54 |
4.91 |
94.70 |
996 |
52.2 |
+2.7 |
| Flyers | 211:43 |
11.11 |
88.18 |
993 |
52.2 |
-4.1 |
| Devils | 318:22 |
6.85 |
93.29 |
1001 |
51.8 |
-3.8 |
| Rangers | 204:36 |
10.68 |
89.22 |
999 |
51.7 |
-1.8 |
| Jets | 332:42 |
10.06 |
95.43 |
1055 |
51.2 |
+1.2 |
| Hurricanes | 275:54 |
4.35 |
91.67 |
960 |
50.4 |
+3.5 |
| Capitals | 223:23 |
7.87 |
88.29 |
962 |
50.4 |
+1.4 |
| Islanders | 330:55 |
5.42 |
90.24 |
957 |
50.0 |
+5.0 |
| Coyotes | 335:42 |
7.18 |
91.95 |
991 |
49.9 |
-2.6 |
| Senators | 348:46 |
3.78 |
94.42 |
982 |
49.4 |
-9.8 |
| Panthers | 276:41 |
7.59 |
92.28 |
989 |
48.5 |
+3.9 |
| Predators | 380:58 |
5.73 |
96.43 |
1022 |
46.8 |
-1.4 |
| Sabres | 358:26 |
7.14 |
93.39 |
1005 |
45.5 |
+1.6 |
| Avalanche | 211:44 |
9.78 |
88.57 |
984 |
45.4 |
+7.5 |
| Oilers | 302:34 |
4.94 |
93.94 |
989 |
45.0 |
-7.1 |
| Lightning | 194:35 |
11.22 |
88.89 |
1001 |
44.9 |
+5.2 |
| Wild | 322:35 |
5.56 |
92.86 |
984 |
44.4 |
+2.7 |
| Ducks | 245:01 |
10.38 |
90.00 |
1004 |
43.9 |
-6.1 |
| Maple Leafs | 257:01 |
11.11 |
92.11 |
1032 |
42.7 |
-0.7 |
| Blue Jackets | 302:23 |
7.89 |
86.93 |
945 |
38.9 |
+1.5 |
Notes:
- After the first 10 games, the Habs had barely played on the road at all, so a drop was to be expected in their possession. They experienced the 5th biggest drop in the league in score tied situations, yet they're still third in the Eastern Conference.
- Their PDO has begun to regress, down from 1058 to 1036, yet they still went 7-1-2 over those 10 games, the second best record in the East, after Boston.
- Only four teams have a greater PDO than the Habs by this measure.
- The biggest drop in the league is in Ottawa, which is entirely expected with their injury situation.
- The most improved team is Colorado, who will get even better with O'Reilly returning.
| Team | Time on ice | Shooting % | Save % | PDO | Fenwick % | Change in Fenwick % |
| Kings | 419:49 | 8.58 | 92.86 | 1014 | 60.3 | +2.3 |
| Bruins | 474:02 | 9.00 | 92.21 | 1012 | 56.0 | +0.8 |
| Blackhawks | 503:31 | 7.03 | 95.54 | 1026 | 55.3 | +4.7 |
| Blues | 441:04 | 9.39 | 88.96 | 984 | 54.6 | -2.3 |
| Canucks | 452:35 | 9.73 | 92.34 | 1021 | 53.9 | +1.8 |
| Canadiens | 467:17 | 8.30 | 95.07 | 1034 | 53.3 | -0.1 |
| Sharks | 501:13 | 7.50 | 96.35 | 1038 | 52.3 | -1.5 |
| Rangers | 431:20 | 8.16 | 90.91 | 991 | 52.3 | +0.6 |
| Red Wings | 520:13 | 6.67 | 93.01 | 997 | 51.9 | -1.9 |
| Senators | 606:56 | 4.99 | 95.48 | 1005 | 51.5 | -6.0 |
| Penguins | 502:27 | 8.79 | 92.80 | 1016 | 51.4 | -0.9 |
| Jets | 590:03 | 8.63 | 93.81 | 1024 | 51.1 | +0.5 |
| Flyers | 438:56 | 9.24 | 89.95 | 992 | 51.1 | -1.6 |
| Stars | 528:40 | 9.34 | 91.64 | 1010 | 51.1 | +2.2 |
| Hurricanes | 462:00 | 6.32 | 91.84 | 982 | 51.0 | +1.9 |
| Devils | 569:06 | 6.83 | 94.57 | 1014 | 50.8 | -1.8 |
| Flames | 465:12 | 8.10 | 89.63 | 977 | 50.7 | -4.2 |
| Islanders | 549:53 | 7.14 | 88.28 | 954 | 50.2 | +4.8 |
| Coyotes | 559:01 | 6.53 | 92.03 | 986 | 49.1 | -3.9 |
| Panthers | 476:04 | 7.38 | 89.34 | 967 | 48.7 | +3.7 |
| Avalanche | 428:00 | 9.01 | 91.96 | 1010 | 48.3 | +3.9 |
| Capitals | 440:25 | 7.55 | 90.56 | 981 | 48.0 | -1.0 |
| Ducks | 443:47 | 11.11 | 91.58 | 1027 | 47.2 | -1.1 |
| Oilers | 480:38 | 3.57 | 92.37 | 961 | 46.8 | -4.1 |
| Maple Leafs | 552:08 | 11.03 | 93.42 | 1044 | 46.8 | +1.7 |
| Predators | 590:33 | 5.88 | 92.48 | 984 | 46.6 | -0.7 |
| Lightning | 436:54 | 8.02 | 89.53 | 976 | 45.6 | +3.1 |
| Wild | 521:18 | 7.31 | 93.21 | 1005 | 44.6 | +0.3 |
| Sabres | 555:45 | 8.65 | 91.62 | 1005 | 42.7 | -2.7 |
| Blue Jackets | 551:02 | 7.94 | 89.84 | 978 | 41.2 | +2.5 |
Notes:
- The Habs have essentially held steady, and in doing so have moved up in the rankings from 8th to 6th overall, and from 3rd to 2nd in the East.
- Montreal is still getting great puck luck, again 3rd in the league. It's Price who seems to be the difference maker there.
- Only two teams have been getting better puck luck while the score is tied.
| Team | Time on ice | Shooting % | Save % | PDO | Fenwick % | Change in Fenwick % |
| Kings | 814:06 | 7.00 | 92.19 | 992 | 58.1 | -1.3 |
| Blues | 878:17 | 7.36 | 90.12 | 975 | 54.0 | -2.0 |
| Bruins | 790:41 | 7.87 | 91.94 | 998 | 53.7 | -1.6 |
| Blackhawks | 903:00 | 8.86 | 94.36 | 1032 | 53.2 | +4.0 |
| Penguins | 956:14 | 8.72 | 91.92 | 1006 | 53.1 | -1.1 |
| Rangers | 886:36 | 7.78 | 92.70 | 1005 | 52.7 | +1.8 |
| Canucks | 855:17 | 8.44 | 92.47 | 1009 | 52.7 | +1.1 |
| Hurricanes | 846:41 | 7.28 | 92.04 | 993 | 51.9 | -1.2 |
| Red Wings | 948:12 | 7.84 | 93.20 | 1010 | 51.9 | -1.8 |
| Canadiens | 892:20 | 8.58 | 94.21 | 1028 | 51.7 | +0.9 |
| Senators | 974:25 | 5.71 | 95.19 | 1009 | 51.5 | -2.8 |
| Devils | 910:23 | 7.63 | 93.12 | 1008 | 50.9 | +1.5 |
| Flyers | 979:33 | 8.35 | 90.89 | 992 | 50.7 | +2.0 |
| Coyotes | 927:00 | 8.46 | 90.60 | 991 | 50.6 | -2.1 |
| Jets | 962:00 | 7.88 | 91.77 | 996 | 50.4 | -1.1 |
| Flames | 874:46 | 7.96 | 89.08 | 970 | 50.1 | -3.8 |
| Stars | 894:29 | 9.11 | 91.03 | 1001 | 50.0 | +2.5 |
| Islanders | 989:23 | 8.25 | 88.96 | 972 | 49.5 | +4.0 |
| Capitals | 883:23 | 7.14 | 91.16 | 983 | 49.5 | -0.9 |
| Avalanche | 875:38 | 8.31 | 92.07 | 1004 | 49.4 | -1.4 |
| Sharks | 850:02 | 6.68 | 93.90 | 1006 | 49.1 | +0.2 |
| Ducks | 808:37 | 11.14 | 92.17 | 1033 | 48.2 | -0.4 |
| Panthers | 936:00 | 6.46 | 90.98 | 974 | 47.5 | +0.9 |
| Predators | 978:19 | 7.41 | 92.67 | 1001 | 46.9 | +2.7 |
| Wild | 855:57 | 8.10 | 92.73 | 1008 | 46.4 | -0.2 |
| Lightning | 925:14 | 10.57 | 90.99 | 1016 | 46.3 | +1.5 |
| Oilers | 831:59 | 4.58 | 92.86 | 974 | 46.3 | -0.5 |
| Maple Leafs | 1025:41 | 9.83 | 93.13 | 1030 | 46.1 | +0.6 |
| Sabres | 963:37 | 8.04 | 91.51 | 996 | 45.9 | -2.7 |
| Blue Jackets | 895:47 | 8.85 | 90.64 | 995 | 43.9 | +1.8 |
Notes:
- The Canadiens have improved from 13th to 10th overall, up from 6th in the east to 5th.
- The Habs are once again getting puck luck, ranking 4th in the league in PDO overall. They have regressed a bit though, down from 1040 to 1028.
- What is going on with the Oiler's shooting percentage? Under 5% in all situations? How is that even possible?
Conclusions
The Habs have been a great example of how a team can slowly regress back down closer to average luck and keep on winning. They have a ways to go, but there's no reason so far to think that they can't compete for one of the top spots in their conference.
The Maple Leafs are easily the luckiest team in the league, and nothing there is looking like a good long term scenario. Their usual March losing streak should be right around the corner.
The Islanders have improved at even strength by a large margin, if that trend continues, they could be the surprise of the second half.
The LA Kings are still the most dominant team in the NHL at even strength, and their record is beginning to show it, 7-3-0 over their last 10. It shouldn't surprise anyone when the eventually win their division, because...
Anaheim is terrible. They're surviving solely on good puck luck, special teams, and Saku Koivu being a hero. There might not be enough time for them to miss the playoffs in a shortened season, but the Kings will overtake them for the division lead.
The Blackhawks are actually improving... Seriously... I like the Blackhawks, but come on! This is getting ridiculous.
Calgary looked absurdly good after 10 games, but that's beginning to fall apart, which teaches the danger of small samples. Since the Canadiens own their second round pick, this is pretty awesome.
Nearly halfway through the season now, these trends should correlate fairly strongly with the rest of the year, but we'll check in after 30 games as well.
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