Where do the Montreal Canadiens rank after 20 games?

Mr. Price, is your save percentage sustainable? - John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

We're almost 50% of the way through the lockout shortened season, are the Habs looking as good as they were after 10 games?

After 10 games we looked at how teams were performing in possession, and which teams were lucky or unlucky. How have those trends changed since?

Once again we'll look at possession, with Fenwick as our proxy, and see how the dice are rolling for teams on shooting ance save percentages.

For explanations of the terms used, please refer to the glossary.

Fenwick while the score is tied
Team Time on ice Shooting % Save % PDO Fenwick % Change in Fenwick %
Kings 222:31
8.87
95.06
1039
60.5
-0.8
Penguins 229:34
11.43
90.43
1019
57.3
+1.0
Red Wings 215:52
5.79
90.00
958
56.4
+0.3
Sharks 317:31
6.37
97.01
1034
54.6
-0.6
Blues 242:42
10.71
93.48
1042
54.6
+1.2
Flames 284:34
7.69
89.55
972
53.9
-0.9
Canucks 271:37
8.70
92.97
1017
53.6
+4.2
Bruins 241:47
8.97
91.41
1004
53.3
+0.7
Canadiens 292:33
7.09
96.46
1036
53.3
-3.4
Stars 327:30
11.39
93.29
1047
53.0
+2.6
Blackhawks 316:54
4.91
94.70
996
52.2
+2.7
Flyers 211:43
11.11
88.18
993
52.2
-4.1
Devils 318:22
6.85
93.29
1001
51.8
-3.8
Rangers 204:36
10.68
89.22
999
51.7
-1.8
Jets 332:42
10.06
95.43
1055
51.2
+1.2
Hurricanes 275:54
4.35
91.67
960
50.4
+3.5
Capitals 223:23
7.87
88.29
962
50.4
+1.4
Islanders 330:55
5.42
90.24
957
50.0
+5.0
Coyotes 335:42
7.18
91.95
991
49.9
-2.6
Senators 348:46
3.78
94.42
982
49.4
-9.8
Panthers 276:41
7.59
92.28
989
48.5
+3.9
Predators 380:58
5.73
96.43
1022
46.8
-1.4
Sabres 358:26
7.14
93.39
1005
45.5
+1.6
Avalanche 211:44
9.78
88.57
984
45.4
+7.5
Oilers 302:34
4.94
93.94
989
45.0
-7.1
Lightning 194:35
11.22
88.89
1001
44.9
+5.2
Wild 322:35
5.56
92.86
984
44.4
+2.7
Ducks 245:01
10.38
90.00
1004
43.9
-6.1
Maple Leafs 257:01
11.11
92.11
1032
42.7
-0.7
Blue Jackets 302:23
7.89
86.93
945
38.9
+1.5

Notes:

  • After the first 10 games, the Habs had barely played on the road at all, so a drop was to be expected in their possession. They experienced the 5th biggest drop in the league in score tied situations, yet they're still third in the Eastern Conference.
  • Their PDO has begun to regress, down from 1058 to 1036, yet they still went 7-1-2 over those 10 games, the second best record in the East, after Boston.
  • Only four teams have a greater PDO than the Habs by this measure.
  • The biggest drop in the league is in Ottawa, which is entirely expected with their injury situation.
  • The most improved team is Colorado, who will get even better with O'Reilly returning.
Fenwick while the score is within 1 goal (close)
Team Time on ice Shooting % Save % PDO Fenwick % Change in Fenwick %
Kings 419:49 8.58 92.86 1014 60.3 +2.3
Bruins 474:02 9.00 92.21 1012 56.0 +0.8
Blackhawks 503:31 7.03 95.54 1026 55.3 +4.7
Blues 441:04 9.39 88.96 984 54.6 -2.3
Canucks 452:35 9.73 92.34 1021 53.9 +1.8
Canadiens 467:17 8.30 95.07 1034 53.3 -0.1
Sharks 501:13 7.50 96.35 1038 52.3 -1.5
Rangers 431:20 8.16 90.91 991 52.3 +0.6
Red Wings 520:13 6.67 93.01 997 51.9 -1.9
Senators 606:56 4.99 95.48 1005 51.5 -6.0
Penguins 502:27 8.79 92.80 1016 51.4 -0.9
Jets 590:03 8.63 93.81 1024 51.1 +0.5
Flyers 438:56 9.24 89.95 992 51.1 -1.6
Stars 528:40 9.34 91.64 1010 51.1 +2.2
Hurricanes 462:00 6.32 91.84 982 51.0 +1.9
Devils 569:06 6.83 94.57 1014 50.8 -1.8
Flames 465:12 8.10 89.63 977 50.7 -4.2
Islanders 549:53 7.14 88.28 954 50.2 +4.8
Coyotes 559:01 6.53 92.03 986 49.1 -3.9
Panthers 476:04 7.38 89.34 967 48.7 +3.7
Avalanche 428:00 9.01 91.96 1010 48.3 +3.9
Capitals 440:25 7.55 90.56 981 48.0 -1.0
Ducks 443:47 11.11 91.58 1027 47.2 -1.1
Oilers 480:38 3.57 92.37 961 46.8 -4.1
Maple Leafs 552:08 11.03 93.42 1044 46.8 +1.7
Predators 590:33 5.88 92.48 984 46.6 -0.7
Lightning 436:54 8.02 89.53 976 45.6 +3.1
Wild 521:18 7.31 93.21 1005 44.6 +0.3
Sabres 555:45 8.65 91.62 1005 42.7 -2.7
Blue Jackets 551:02 7.94 89.84 978 41.2 +2.5

Notes:

  • The Habs have essentially held steady, and in doing so have moved up in the rankings from 8th to 6th overall, and from 3rd to 2nd in the East.
  • Montreal is still getting great puck luck, again 3rd in the league. It's Price who seems to be the difference maker there.
  • Only two teams have been getting better puck luck while the score is tied.
Even Strength Fenwick
Team Time on ice Shooting % Save % PDO Fenwick % Change in Fenwick %
Kings 814:06 7.00 92.19 992 58.1 -1.3
Blues 878:17 7.36 90.12 975 54.0 -2.0
Bruins 790:41 7.87 91.94 998 53.7 -1.6
Blackhawks 903:00 8.86 94.36 1032 53.2 +4.0
Penguins 956:14 8.72 91.92 1006 53.1 -1.1
Rangers 886:36 7.78 92.70 1005 52.7 +1.8
Canucks 855:17 8.44 92.47 1009 52.7 +1.1
Hurricanes 846:41 7.28 92.04 993 51.9 -1.2
Red Wings 948:12 7.84 93.20 1010 51.9 -1.8
Canadiens 892:20 8.58 94.21 1028 51.7 +0.9
Senators 974:25 5.71 95.19 1009 51.5 -2.8
Devils 910:23 7.63 93.12 1008 50.9 +1.5
Flyers 979:33 8.35 90.89 992 50.7 +2.0
Coyotes 927:00 8.46 90.60 991 50.6 -2.1
Jets 962:00 7.88 91.77 996 50.4 -1.1
Flames 874:46 7.96 89.08 970 50.1 -3.8
Stars 894:29 9.11 91.03 1001 50.0 +2.5
Islanders 989:23 8.25 88.96 972 49.5 +4.0
Capitals 883:23 7.14 91.16 983 49.5 -0.9
Avalanche 875:38 8.31 92.07 1004 49.4 -1.4
Sharks 850:02 6.68 93.90 1006 49.1 +0.2
Ducks 808:37 11.14 92.17 1033 48.2 -0.4
Panthers 936:00 6.46 90.98 974 47.5 +0.9
Predators 978:19 7.41 92.67 1001 46.9 +2.7
Wild 855:57 8.10 92.73 1008 46.4 -0.2
Lightning 925:14 10.57 90.99 1016 46.3 +1.5
Oilers 831:59 4.58 92.86 974 46.3 -0.5
Maple Leafs 1025:41 9.83 93.13 1030 46.1 +0.6
Sabres 963:37 8.04 91.51 996 45.9 -2.7
Blue Jackets 895:47 8.85 90.64 995 43.9 +1.8

Notes:

  • The Canadiens have improved from 13th to 10th overall, up from 6th in the east to 5th.
  • The Habs are once again getting puck luck, ranking 4th in the league in PDO overall. They have regressed a bit though, down from 1040 to 1028.
  • What is going on with the Oiler's shooting percentage? Under 5% in all situations? How is that even possible?
Conclusions

The Habs have been a great example of how a team can slowly regress back down closer to average luck and keep on winning. They have a ways to go, but there's no reason so far to think that they can't compete for one of the top spots in their conference.

The Maple Leafs are easily the luckiest team in the league, and nothing there is looking like a good long term scenario. Their usual March losing streak should be right around the corner.

The Islanders have improved at even strength by a large margin, if that trend continues, they could be the surprise of the second half.

The LA Kings are still the most dominant team in the NHL at even strength, and their record is beginning to show it, 7-3-0 over their last 10. It shouldn't surprise anyone when the eventually win their division, because...

Anaheim is terrible. They're surviving solely on good puck luck, special teams, and Saku Koivu being a hero. There might not be enough time for them to miss the playoffs in a shortened season, but the Kings will overtake them for the division lead.

The Blackhawks are actually improving... Seriously... I like the Blackhawks, but come on! This is getting ridiculous.

Calgary looked absurdly good after 10 games, but that's beginning to fall apart, which teaches the danger of small samples. Since the Canadiens own their second round pick, this is pretty awesome.

Nearly halfway through the season now, these trends should correlate fairly strongly with the rest of the year, but we'll check in after 30 games as well.


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