Another Welcome To EOTP

In the continuing expansion of Eyes On The Prize, we've added Christopher Boucher's unique insight.

Since the free agent market has been slow as can be, I think this is a good opportunity to announce another addition to Eyes On The Prize.

In our continuing effort to provide Montreal Canadiens fans with the best analysis of your favourite team from top to bottom, we have added Christopher Boucher (we encourage you to give him a follow on twitter) of Boucher Scouting as a contributing writer.

Christopher has been mentioned on this site before, and we've used his statistics in the quarterly reviews of the team. His innovative risk/reward system provides a special insight into the Habs than no other team's fans currently have.

Join me in welcoming Christopher to the team, and an explanation of Boucher's system in his own words is after the jump.

The following is taken from Boucher Scouting's FAQ page:

What is Boucher Scouting?

What is defenseman A's success-rate when attempting a pass from the defensive-zone?

I TRACK THIS; AND MORE!

At what rate does player B give the puck-away in the offensive, defensive, or neutral-zone?

I TRACK THIS; AND MORE!


Boucher Scouting is an attempt to quantify players' performances. Boucher Scouting uses a player tracking system conceived, created and published by Christopher Boucher. It uses video to track every puck-possession event that occurs during a game. Here, we attempt to go beyond the arbitrary, and move toward tangible and reliable scouting reports. The system allows us to establish numbers relating to everything from how many loose-pucks a player recovers, to what a player's passing or puck-battle success-rate is in a specific zone. We also segregate numbers by manpower situation (even-strength, powerplay, short-handed).

I track each and every play; using specific in game situations to grade players performances. I input the results into a database, allowing me to track players' successes and failures. Whether it's an incomplete or complete pass-attempt, a won or lost race to a loose puck, a won or lost puck-battle, etc.; each result is tracked for each specific player.

The results are also tracked by zone (offensive/defensive/neutral) and by situation (even-strength/powerplay/short-handed) and imputed into the database as such. This allows me to track how each player performs in each zone, and in each manpower situation.

I do this work because I love it.
I do this work because I want to do this professionally.
I do this work because I believe it has value.



REFERENCE POINTS

These averages have been calculated over hundreds of games and approximately 2500 individual scouting reports.

Average grade: 67
Average ratio: 2.03
Average risk/reward: 1.31
Average offensive-zone risk/reward: 0.30
Average defensive-zone risk/reward: 0.62
Average neutral-zone risk/reward: 0.30


CLICK HERE FOR DETAILED REPORTS CREATED FROM DATA ACQUIRED OVER THE COURSE OF AN ENTIRE MONTREAL CANADIENS SEASON -THIS IS HOW MUCH VALUABLE INFORMATION CAN BE ACCRUED FOR EACH PLAYER


Negative and positive impact on games

To further quantify a player's impact on games, We take a player's average playing time and divide it by the number of events. This allows us to determine not only how involved a player is in the game, but also how much of this involvement has a positive or negative effect on his team.

The resulting numbers indicate how many events a player is involved in during each minute of ice-time (events/min). They also indicate how many positive events a player contributes during a minute of ice-time (pos/min), and how many negative events a player contributes during a minute of ice-time (neg/min).

Ratio

We can determine a player's overall value to a club by tracking how many successful puck-possession plays a player makes for every 1 unsuccessful play; the resulting number is a player's ratio. This ratio can be broken down into zone or manpower situation (even-strength, short-handed, powerplay).

Risk-reward

We can also determine a player's overall value to a club by calculating the difference between positive events per minute of ice-time and negative events per minute of ice-time. We do this by subtracting the negative events per minute of ice-time from the positive events per minute of ice-time. The higher the resulting number the more value a player has to a team. We call the resulting number their, "risk / reward rating". Risk/reward is different from ratio because it also takes into account how involved a player is in the play. The more involved he is; the higher his risk/reward (as long as he's making successful plays).


Risk-reward by zone


We further breakdown the risk / reward rating by zone. This allows us to quantify a players play into specific zones. Thereby rating a player's play in the offensive, defensive, and neutral zones.

CLICK HERE FOR AN EXAMPLE OF A RISK / REWARD REPORT FOR A SPECIFIC ZONE


Goals

My immediate goal is to grade as many 2012 NHL draft eligible prospects as possible. My long-term goal is to continue rating Montreal Canadiens games through the upcoming season, while grading as many drafted and undrafted players as humanly possible (I remain one man).

My long-term goal is to get enough exposure and feedback for my scouting system as possible. Obviously any interest from the CHL, AHL or NHL scouting community would be welcome; as would an opportunity within a CHL, AHL or NHL organization.

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