Game Thread: Habs Host Caps
by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 4, 2012 12:00 PM EST
in Habs Game Threads
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PrintWashington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens, Feb 4, 2012 2:00 PM EST
This will be the second meeting of the season between the Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals.
The first meeting didn't fair well for the Canadiens (what game has?), when Michal Neuvirth whitewashed them 3-0 on January 18. Neuvirth has only had three starts since December 26, and given a loss and an 88-footer he let in against the Florida Panthers on Wednesday, we should see Tomas Vokoun between the pipes.
Alexander Ovechkin had one of Washington's three goals that night, and returns from his three-game suspension. While far off his typical season point totals thus far (39 points in 47 games), Ovechkin tends to bring out his A-game against Montreal. He has 27 (13 goals) points in 23 career games against the Canadiens, with 10 points coming while his team is on the man advantage.
Mathieu Perreault also contributed a goal in the last meeting between the two clubs, and has 7 points (5 goals - including a hat trick) in his last 6 games.
As a whole, the Capitals were dumped from third to ninth in the Eastern Conference standings, after the Florida Panthers leap-frogged over them for the Southeast Division lead, Wednesday.
One of the Caps biggest problems is finding wins on the road, where they third worst in the conference at 8-14-3 to go with a minus-20 goal differential.
But whether on the road or not, the Capitals have no problems when leading after 40 minutes. They are 15-0-0 when starting the 3rd period with a lead, which will mean lights out for the Habs if they find themselves in that position this afternoon. Then again having a lead hasn't down the Canadiens much good of late either.
With Canadiens playing their traditional back-to-back Superbowl Weekend afternoon games, Peter Budaj gets the call in goal against the Capitals. Budaj is 0-1 (3.81, .848) in 79 minutes of career action against Washington.
MONTREAL CANADIENS PROJECTED LINEUP
Forwards
Erik Cole - David Desharnais - Max Pacioretty
Mathieu Darche - Lars Eller - Andrei Kostitsyn
Rene Bourque - Tomas Plekanec - Scott Gomez
Aaron Palushaj - Louis Leblanc - Yannick Weber
Defense Pairings
Goalies
Peter Budaj - Carey Price
WASHINGTON CAPITALS PROJECTED LINEUP
Forwards
Alex Ovechkin - Marcus Johansson - Alexander Semin
Matt Hendricks - Brooks Laich - Troy Brouwer
Jason Chimera - Mathieu Perreault -Mike Knuble
Keith Aucoin - Jeff Halpern -Joel Ward
Defense Pairings
Dmitry Orlov - Roman Hamrlik
Goalies
Tomas Vokoun - Michal Neuvirth
Capitals vs Canadiens coverage
SBN Capitals coverage from the excellent team at Japers' Rink
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Nail suspended two games
So he’s just off a knee injury, and is advised to skip the Prospects Game, gives a note from the team doctor to Branch, and he still suspends him for missing it.
He defends himself further in by noting team doctors in Kelowna would have checked to see if he could play, as they did for Grigorenko, but why take the risk, or waste time travelling if they were to say the same thing?
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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 4, 2012 1:37 PM EST reply actions
Weird situation.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
Breaking news: During his pregame comments on the Mothership, PJ Stock noted he is confused.
You heard it here first.
Mommy forgot to sew PJ’s mittens into his coat sleeves?
by HighFructoseCornSyrupSince72 on Feb 4, 2012 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
Oh my, bad anthem singer.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 2:12 PM EST reply actions
It’s so bad I just feel horrible for her. Obviously not ready for this spotlight.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Ha!
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
No idea, but honestly it was a bit unfair to her in the end.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know if that’s the best ideALL GLORY TO THE HYPNOTOAD.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
Tampons to the nostrils for Orlov.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 2:27 PM EST reply actions
Seems like every shift Eller creates something.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 2:43 PM EST reply actions
Scoring chances
ES: +0/-5, ST +0/-1
Pleks’s line got plugged for 3 chances against
Desharnais’s and Gomez’s line each took one against.
Yikes.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
Fenwick
Eller +5, Gomez +4, Darche +4
Plekanec +1, Kostitsn, +1, Bourque 0
Meanwhile the DD line is getting hemmed in by Ovechkin’s line:
Desharnais -3, Pacioretty -5, Cole -2
Subban and Gorges predictably best on D, both +3
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 2:55 PM EST reply actions
-2, but that still doesn’t make sense…
Maybe he’s just played more? He is averaging over a minute per shift.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
Looks like Pleks actually played more against ovie
http://timeonice.com/H2H1112.html?GameNumber=20769&submit=Go
There’s the answer. RC must have adjusted. I’m shocked.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
He won a lot in the AHL. That means the guy is able to find advantages and exploit them. It’s the complete lack of awareness about what made the team successful and the resulting decisions that are so grating.
It tells me Martin’s savyness was probably more a byproduct of his vast experience than any particular sensibilities to “new stats” and stuff like that. So maybe he didn’t have particularly significant insights to pass along to RC.
That’s an interesting point. Not so much awareness of advanced stats as experience to watch for things that relate to them without even knowing it.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Advanced stats are useful to us peons because they help us make sense of what is otherwise an entirely chaotic endeavour.
But you look at advanced stats vs “traditional saw him good coaching experience” (at the NHL level that is) and there is a fairly large overlap, that is maybe 75, if not 90% (they all match up, all watch zone starts, stuff like that).
I think that’s why stats aren’t taking hold quickly in hockey: the advantage isn’t as thourough as it was in Baseball, where they litterally could buy runs for nothing for a while.
Still, I find it interesting that Dan Blysma banters to Desjardins about Corsi… and the Pens are one of the best clubs in the league despite so many major injuries.
I’m thinking younger guys like him use it to validate/complete their knowledge.
Randy though? Every time he does something good I keep worrying it’s by accident. :-/
Remember when he accidentally stumbled on a solid D pairing of Emelin and Gorges and promptly never used them again?
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
Seems to me like the advantage would be in the GM position and not the coaching position.
I mean if you’re a coach and can’t recognize what’s going on without advanced stats you probably shouldn’t be in the NHL.
Some things have also been counted by coaches forever before fans ever thought to take them into account, like zone starts, line matching and scoring chances.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
By DD’s ice time it looks like his line played nearly equally against the 1st, 2nd and 4th lines. Only really matched against Carlson.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
It was a blocked shot so maybe not.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
Halfway through the game and they don’t have a scoring chance? I thought the two-man forecheck was going to heal all the offensive woes.
Pacioretty and Desharnais are the only Habs with negative Fenwick now, while Diaz and Plekanec are the only ones with negative Corsi.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 3:31 PM EST reply actions
+11 and +16 now, just two chances. Unreal.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
So, with 6:36 left in the second period, AKost registered the habs’s 1st scoring chance of the game.
Holy crap.
Just me, or has Mathieu Darche been noticeably better of late?
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 3:35 PM EST reply actions
I’ve been noticing a lot of nice plays in the offensive zones, takeaways and such.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Darche is miles and miles ahead of Blunden. So seeing him where Blunden usually is is quite the shock, yes.
But Darche can play on the PK and was a 60+ points scorer in the AHL. Why teams are giving 4th line icetime to plugs as Blunden when there are guys scoring 50+ points while being able to play in their own zone in the AHL is beyond me.
I think you’re right, that’s why it’s such a shock. Seeing Blunden being useless for so long I forgot that we had better players.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
I think the problem is precisely that it’s not. Offensive, I mean.
by MathMan on Feb 4, 2012 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Scoring chances
+2/-1 at ES this period.
What a weird ass game.
Total perimeter game I guess.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
Quite a lot of shots from the slot blocked too. Those WSH defencemen know how to hold the inside of the zone.
No doubt with 16 blocked shots, but you’d think something would have gotten through.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Canadiens look like they are just going through the motions. Embarrassing to see that. The playoffs are not going to happen, but have some pride.
Yeah, I don't like the Bruins, but I HATE the Flyers!
So predictable. We’ll get a goal with 30 seconds left to bring the 1 goal game record to 9-23
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
High risk to try to make something. Stupid but i get it. He also didn’t hook him.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
With the way the season has gone the Habs are going to finish 29th but be bumped down to 3rd overall with some other team winning the draft lottery. Subban will also suffer a career-ending injury in the summer doing charity work. Plekanec will switch to soccer, leading the Czech Republic through World Cup qualifying to get to Brazil.
20 games into his coaching career, Randy Cunneyworth is 6-12-2, giving him a full-season points pace of 57.4 points.
Obviously this is a small sample, so the following comparison must be taken with a generous helping of salt, but nevertheless: only two teams, the Blues in 05-06 (57 points) and the Flyers in 06-07 (56 points), have maintained a worse pace over 82 games.
That might be the most damning thing I’ve read this year.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 4, 2012 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
Addendum to that.
Let’s be nice to Randy and cut off his first four games, since he was getting his feet under him, taking over a troubled team, not fair to expect him to do great right away, needs time to implement his system, yadda yadda yadda, anyway, I’m basically lopping off four straight regulation losses off his record just to make him look better. This makes him 6-8-2. Good for 71.75 points. The 29th overall team this year is on pace for 72 points. That’d be the Edmonton Oilers.
The Habs have become the new Oilers.
My God.
Both teams with pretty serious issues on defense. The coaching change and non-existant 2nd-pairing are the two blunders that have the Habs where they are this season.
Even with the non-existent 2nd pairing, the Habs were a top-10 defensive team under Martin. They could paper it over pretty well so long as they had Gomez to keep the puck at the other end.
Then Gomez went down, the second pairing was exposed, JM started scrambling to shelter everyone who needed sheltering, PG decided that the team had been playing poorly despite its record in December, and the rest is history.
Key difference that the Habs have real NHL players over 21 in most of their lineup spots.
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by Stephan Cooper on Feb 4, 2012 8:24 PM EST up reply actions
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