Pierre for GM?
I have criticized Pierre McGuire in the past for several reasons, but now with his friend and TSN990 radio host Mitch Melnick writing this piece in a campaign to get him hired as GM, the usual McGuire for GM meme for when the Habs are struggling is gaining momentum. Add to that many believe it is a foregone conclusion that Pierre Gauthier will be relieved of his duties in the offseason and the speculation goes into overdrive.
I will say from the beginning that I am not in favour of Pierre McGuire becoming the next General Manager of the Montreal Canadiens, but I don't think it's fair to just pile on and cherry pick in order to do so. McGuire is not a fool, he is not Mike Milbury, and there are many positives to him. It is only fair to look at both sides of the issue before coming to a conclusion. We will start by looking at McGuire's positives, then weigh them against the negatives.
The Positives
Melnick details McGuire's hockey career thoroughly so I do not think we need to go through that again here. What I do want to talk about is McGuire's colour commentary. While he is prone to hyperbole, McGuire is the only commentator in hockey who consistently gives insight into coaching strategy. He often mentions what lines are matched against whom, and recognizes coaching adjustments quickly and explains how they can impact the game being played in front of them. If more colour guys were like McGuire in this respect, watching hockey would be better. Sure his enthusiasm can ruin great moments, but he's by and large the best colour guy out there, and frankly makes his competition look very bad. And even though McGuire did put a bit of a damper on that moment, it is important to remember that what he was trying to do was give fans knowledge in how the play developed, he was just too excited to wait. He can't be blamed.
As Melnick says, McGuire is a hard worker. You don't get to where he is without hard work. He is the elite of his field and paid accordingly. He also doesn't forget where he came from and continues to communicate with anyone who wants to talk to him. Basically he's a nice guy.
McGuire has great hockey connections. He probably overstates his connections a little bit with the constant name dropping he does, but he has connections to many brilliant hockey minds. The nature of his work demands it and he has done a great job in building them. Along with these connections he's built a seemingly encyclopedic knowledge of players and people in the game of hockey.
He's bilingual. Personally this is irrelevant to me as the general manager rarely speaks anyway, but for many fans this is a positive so I'll list it.
Negatives
McGuire has a habit of coming down on both sides of every issue. People remember when you're right, but not when you're wrong, so which part gets quoted? The part that comes true of course. Melnick quoted McGuire on Cristobal Huet:
I remain highly skeptical. He's never been this good at any level. I don't think he can sustain this high level of play.
McGuire also said about Huet's trade to the Washington Capitals:
I'm not surprised at all. This is Carey Price's team going forward. Internally (the Habs) knew they were not going to win with Cristobal Huet
Yet he ranted and raved after the Canadiens were eliminated in 2008 about how they should have kept Huet as insurance because Price wasn't ready to carry the team. He also said drafting Price in the first place was a mistake in part due to the depth Huet provided with Jose Theodore and the perennial All Star (AHL anyway) Yann Danis.
Some of the other quotes Melnick uses are curious as they don't exactly paint him as being right. For example his view of Sheldon Souray:
One trick pony. There isn't much interest around the league. I don't know who's going to sign him. Don't know how effective he can be in post lockout era.
Melnick doesn't give context for this quote, but it seems likely that it was after his fall out with the Edmonton Oilers. Well Souray is on pace for a 30 point season, is +8 and putting up nearly 3 shots per game. He's by no means a top end defenseman, but he's filling his role well.
On Guillaume Latendresse:
Big mistake if he starts in the NHL as an 18 year old. He needs to develop properly. Don't rush him.
You could stretch this super thin and say Latendresse making the NHL so early lead to his sense of entitlement and early exit from the Canadiens, but the facts are he was earning his keep as an NHL scorer, boasting some of the highest even strength goals per 60 minutes played of any player on the Habs. He clearly wasn't ruined based on his limited action in Minnesota. Usually the sentiment behind McGuire's thoughts here are sound, but listing it as foresight when it wasn't is odd.
On Roman Hamrlik:
A good player but I don't know about that 4th year. He'll help but the term is one year too long.
In Hamrlik's last year with the Canadiens he posted his best statistical season since he was signed, in spite of Andrei Markov being out nearly the entire year, forcing Hamrlik to once again play above his weight.
On Mike Cammalleri:
I don't know how many other teams would have given him a 6th year.
He was signed to a five year contract. Maybe this is a typo? Either way, Cammalleri will be just turning 32 by the end of his deal, hardly an age where most GMs would exercise caution as the end age of a deal.
On Jaroslav Spacek:
Good player but not much left in the tank. Was a healthy scratch for Buffalo last year. I'd rather have Francois Beauchemin.
Spacek's tenure ended on a sour note, and he never provided the offense that fans expected for the money he was getting paid, but he put up two extremely solid years of shutdown defense for the Canadiens. More than Beachemin -21 rating shows over the same period. I think even Pierre McGuire would admit he was wrong about this one after he raved about Spacek's presence in the 2010 playoffs.
On Dominic Moore:
Why did they give up a second round pick when they could have had this player as a free agent?
Because cap implications are different during the middle of the season than the beginning. Because being a GM isn't as simple as going out and signing whoever you want, whenever you want. Why did the Buffalo Sabres trade a second round pick for Moore in 2009 when they could have claimed him off waivers in 2008? Things aren't always so simple.
McGuire also criticized the Canadiens for not taking Angelo Esposito in 2007, whom they passed over for Ryan McDonagh. Last year he said he didn't believe Lars Eller would even be a top 9 forward, then he said he would top out as a 3rd line center.
Now it is not my intention to pick on Pierre McGuire. He's allowed to be wrong. Everyone is wrong once in awhile. But the point is that he's not the beacon of brilliance that Melnick is making him out to be, he's just the loudest candidate for the job. Anyone who will be seriously considered for a GM position has the same connections that McGuire has. It is easy to second guess moves from the outside. I'm doing it to Pierre right now and I'm not in any way qualified to do his job or be an NHL general manager. It's very simple to sit on the sidelines for 10+ years and second guess every move with the advantage of hindsight, especially when you're not in print so quotes are hard to come by and you don't mind making several contradictory statements to ensure you'll be remembered as being right.
The biggest problem in McGuire's analysis when it comes to Montreal is one simple thing: He's a fan. From his clear grudge against Gauthier, to his knee jerk reactions, to his undervaluing of every asset the Canadiens currently own, it seems clear that McGuire can not separate his emotions from his analysis. That's a huge problem as an executive. Perhaps he could be successful in another market, but he loves the Habs too much to be successful here. As fans, we all want to be armchair GMs, but none of us should be in charge. A dispassionate, patient professional is what's needed when one move can mess up a team for a decade.
If against all odds Pierre gets the job, of course we should give him a chance to show his mettle, but the question is whether he's the best candidate available, and I don't believe that's the case.
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McGuire tends to overkill his analysis of talent down the pipe for a lot of teams. Robert Rice had a few examples early Wed morning on his Twitter page.
One that he may have been spot on was Alexei Emelin, who he noted several times on TSN broadcasts the last couple of seasons.
Funny to read Melnicks article, on the whole St. Louis deal. Almost as if he is giving McGuire credit for Turgeon going to St. Louis..Yeah, that’s a good plug for him..
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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 2, 2012 9:28 AM EST via mobile reply actions
My favourite McGuire overstatement was saying Dmitry Orlov will be the next Sergei Zubov. Before he plays an NHL game he’s compared to the best Russian defenseman of all time?
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 9:41 AM EST up reply actions
Emelin was an automatic pick for the Russian national team. Hard to miss that one.
Everyone knew Emelin was good. The trick was convincing him to move here.
by HighFructoseCornSyrupSince72 on Feb 2, 2012 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
My problem with Pierre McGuire is that just like I wouldn’t want a guy like Rex Murphy to take a job in the federal cabinet, I don’t want guys like McGuire running a NHL club. We’re supposed to believe that Pierre McGuire, who last worked with a hockey team in 1996 (!), never advancing past assistant coach or scout (and a half-season as a head coach), is the best guy for this job? His 15-16 years of broadcasting hasn’t enhanced his resume, IMO. I don’t know what about broadcasting makes one more qualified to negotiate contracts, hire a scouting staff, work the phones with other top executives, hire coaches, and evaluate personnel.
Julien Brisebois has been an assistant GM for the past 5 years and is running his second AHL club (at age 34!). He’s familiar with Montreal, has helped negotiate contracts for both Montreal and Tampa Bay, and is on the AHL competition committee. He’s a lawyer (on the Quebec Bar) with a MBA who has been working with sports leagues his entire career (QMJHL, MLB/NHL arbitration hearings, motor sports). Full background here.
Can anyone honestly tell me that Pierre McGuire’s resume is better than that? And if so… why? Because you’ve heard his opinions on TV? I much more value what people have done than what they’ve said they’d do.
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by Bruce Peter on Feb 2, 2012 9:28 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
I much more value what people have done than what they’ve said they’d do.
Well put. What annoys me when it comes to Julien Brisebois is that people in the media said he was an up and coming genius when he left for Tampa Bay, but when he’s mentioned as a candidate for GM it’s “cronyism”. Seems like no matter who they are, if they’re interested in MTL everyone is against them from day 1.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 9:39 AM EST up reply actions
To me, his qualifications speak to the modern NHL GM way more than anyone else. To be fair, in Montreal, GM is more hockey ops than running a business (that’s the President’s job) but he’s developed great hockey ops chops as well at the AHL level. The Habs might soon be a half-billion dollar business if they aren’t there already, why would you accept anything less than a man with great qualifications, smarts, and is actively succeeding in management to run that business?
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Habs wont be a half-billion business if they keep up with the current results. TV ratings are failing, people are not happy. Would you like to be an advertiser at this moment, every ad you show talking about Habs induce rage in viewers.
by fsaintjacques on Feb 2, 2012 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
That will reverse as soon as the team starts winning, which should be next October.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 10:00 AM EST up reply actions
Well if it’s not there’s a huge problem.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
Even more reason to hire a bottom line guy, IMO.
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Fans think that a GM does the same as a fantasy GM. Make trades and sign UFA’s.
So a guy like McGuire who self promotes and is the first to say “I told you so” has created this perception that he is always right. He never brings up when he said “Pascal Leclaire is the best goaltender in Senators history”.
So simplistically this guy always knows, so he would make the right choices.
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No one remembers when a media guy is wrong, but they’ll be the first to remind you when they’re right. Kind of like how Don Cherry is always saying “I was right” when he cherry picks things that have sort of happened.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
My problem with Pierre McGuire is that just like I wouldn’t want a guy like Rex Murphy to take a job in the federal cabinet, I don’t want guys like McGuire running a NHL club.
Perfect analogy. I once met Rex Murphy in a bathroom before a talk he was giving, dude was super red in the face.
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by Plea From A Cat Named Felix on Feb 2, 2012 9:41 AM EST up reply actions
Article from 1994 on McGuire’s firing from Hartford. Wow.
At 32, McGuire was the youngest head coach in the NHL. He never had been a head coach at any level. And it showed. He is book smart and X’s and O’s smart, but often not people smart.
When a young man is so headstrong, so emotional, so calculating, such a control freak, so full of ambition and so full of himself, he will either rocket to the top or crash.
…
In a blistering post-mortem, captain Pat Verbeek called McGuire’s firing the best thing that could have happened to the Whalers. He said other teams mocked their coach. He said his own teammates had no respect for McGuire. He said a number of players wouldn’t have wanted to play in Hartford anymore.
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by Bruce Peter on Feb 2, 2012 9:58 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Doesn’t sound much different than his persona on TV.
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More from that piece
Once when he was an assistant coach, McGuire bragged about his strategy to shut down Mario Lemieux. This was after a 7-3 loss and four goals by Kevin Stevens.
On the bench, players said McGuire would taunt the other team, saying he couldn’t believe the opposing coach was allowing him certain line matchups. This braggadocio led Pittsburgh’s Jaromir Jagr to mock McGuire in December. McGuire got Jagr for an illegal stick, and after Jagr jumped out of the penalty box, he scored on a breakaway. Although he had scored big goals in two Stanley Cup championships, Jagr called this overtime goal the biggest of his life because he humbled ``that know-it-all.’’
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by Bruce Peter on Feb 2, 2012 10:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Article also states that McGuire was an assistant GM in Hartford and the GM job after Burke left for the NHL disciplinarian gig was between McGuire and Holmgren. First I had heard of this, so I guess he did climb the ladder a bit further than what we thought.
But I like the suggestion that Holgren hired McGuire (while Holmgren went to rehab) for his own self-preservation, knowing McGuire would fail. It sounds so NHL, like what the Islanders do constantly.
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Woah.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
You know how one of Pierre’s favourite anecdotal stories is to relay how a young Michael Nylander claimed to be the ‘Swedish Gretzky’? Consider the first paragraph on the 2nd page, and what is described here relating to Pierre’s personality, to his Nylander-mocking story.
This article is amazing. And it is spreading… just don’t expect any MSM guys to pass it along.
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Pierre McGuire
Anything to stop him from interviewing the coaches during the game…
This seems to be a common theme on twitter as well!
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
Him and everyone else that does it. I just find it wrong.
That should be done between periods. You always here them saying “I talked to Asst. Coach…,” during intermission so why not the coach.
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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 2, 2012 12:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
As for the choices above, is Nill even a realistic option? No one has been able to get him out of Detroit yet.
Gainey shouldn’t want the job anymore.
Nonis… alright choice, but he doesn’t boast an overwhelming resume to make up for the whole not bilingual thing. Ditto for Dudley.
Loiselle and Brisebois are the only two realistic and qualified candidates on the poll, IMO. And while the poll is showing McGuire ahead, I doubt Pierre is the second choice for many who want one of the other candidates. :)
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There were rumours that Nill would be willing to leave Detroit for a marquee franchise. Obviously he’d need some big cash but that’s no problem for this org.
Nonis and Dudley both have the advantages of being full on GMs over Brisebois and Loiselle, and I don’t believe the French thing is a big for a GM. Fans might make a fuss, but who cares? The talent pool for French speaking GMs is remarkably tiny, so I don’t see the point in limiting the search.
I threw Gainey on as a bit of a joke and I’m surprised he got some votes.
As for McGuire being ahead, I see it as 70% of people voting against him.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
I put this up on the H I/O website – Jim Nill’s drafting record with Detroit since 2006 is woeful. One of the worst in hockey (although Jacques Martin’s Panthers were even worse). Detroit are still riding the wave of their great drafting from 1998-2004, when they just paid greater attention to Europe than anyone else, but the future looks less than bright.
By the way there are rumours that Jacques Martin might get the Habs GM job. I assume they are false.
by HighFructoseCornSyrupSince72 on Feb 2, 2012 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Was going to say Martin has been mentioned as a candidate, and is an ex-GM as well. Even those of us who liked him as coach are quite plentiful on this site, I don’t think he’d get a lot of support as a GM candidate here.
Might as well put Andre Savard on the list as well. And Luc Robitaille. And Martin Gelinas.
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The Wings have been drawing from Europe since the late eighties. Then GM Jim Devellano and then head scout Ken Holland got that ball rolling.
Then the rest of the league woke up.
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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 2, 2012 12:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Not concerned about drafting if Timmons sticks around. Detroit has some good prospects right now (Pulkkinen, Jurco, Smith, Nyquist, Tatar, Jarnkrok, Mrazek) but the Wings are a tough team to crack, though you’re right they did have some poor drafts after the lockout. Not sure how much of that is Nill. Management is all about hiring the right people and assembling a great team. I’m more concerned about his pro moves: hirings for Hamilton and Montreal coaching staff, player signings and trades, etc.
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I don't fully get the love for Timmins
Stats show that a high percentage of his draft picks make the NHL, but do they make the NHL team a winner or an also-ran?
I give Timmins credit for the Price pick. It was very gutsy at #5 to take a goalkeeper. I commend him for pushing the front office to make that pick.
But I also credit Timmins for making us an unbalanced team. Plenty of “2-way players” but few offensive stars who had the make-up/projectability to continue producing in the same way in the NHL, a disproportionate amount of “small” players coming up through the system in the past 8 years as opposed to potential “power” wingers or “the big centre” the organisation says it has been looking for.
Part of the problem of imbalance, may be that the GM has consistently traded away picks in the 2nd to 4th rounds. Again, I say Timmins needs to take some of the blame for that as he needs to be able to tell the office: if you want more MaxPacs or Latendresses (the only 2 productive “power” guys I can think of off the top of my head that he has drafted in the system, you need to let me and my team have picks in the 2nd round.
One more (sort of) plus for Timmins
He has drafted some great defensemen. However, he has also made “bust” picks because they closed their eyes to the forwards available and chose what they felt was the best defenseman on the board.
Timmins job is not to place a fully balanced NHL squad on the ice. His job is to acquire talent and assets. Jaroslav Halak turned into a 6’2" 200 lb. center.
That is positive asset management. If Timmins provides the Canadiens with somebody like Ribeiro and they toss it away for a depth defenseman, how can that be on him?
The GM is the one who puts the team together. Timmins job is to provide him with assets to stock the NHL roster.
Timmins has done a great job. Go find me a great head scout who doesn’t have a Fisher on their resume.
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by Chris Boyle on Feb 2, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I thought you were going to say what was lacking on his CV was Claude Giroux!
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
One more minus
The scouting team seemed to concentrate a lot of their efforts on the American high school/college/ development scene and chose players from there over better prospects from the CHL as a strategy. I understand that having 4 years to watch the player develop before making a decision could be better than having only 2, but that is only the case if the player in question turns into an impact player at the end of those 4 years. We have made a lot of drafting mistakes due to this policy. To be fair, the last draft was different than the ones before and hopefully this is a sign of things to come
If a draft yields 2 NHLers, it’s a success, no matter where they’re from.
Sometimes I think Timmins is trying to be the smartest guy in the room picking a long term project, but he is successful.
2003: A. Kostitsyn (strong forward), Lapierre (strong forward), O’Byrne, Halak.
2004: Chipchura (borderline), Emelin, Grabovski, Streit
2005: Price, Latendresse (strong forward), D’Agostini, S. Kostitsyn
2006: Maxwell, White (strong forward)
2007: McDonagh, Pacioretty (strong forward), Subban, Weber
2008: Kristo, Quailer (strong forward) – both still in college so evaluation still up in air)
2009: Leblanc
We’ll see about 2009-11 in the next couple years. 2006 was a bad year for him in general, 2008 he didn’t have a first pick, but every year he’s picked what I’d call a strong forward with the exception of 2004 although Chipchura was supposed to fit that bill. 3 different years he’s picked FOUR NHL players… that’s a good record. In 2004 he also picked Greg Stewart and J.T. Wyman, who didn’t quite make it but were strong forwards as well, and in 2007 he also picked Andrew Conboy.
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As annoying as it is, Grabovski can probably be classified as a strong forward. He plays like a bull nowadays.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
Also, Sergei Kostitsyn is a hockey player.
by Simon Lamarche on Feb 2, 2012 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
Something like that.
7th round. 200th pick taken.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
If you’re picking a defenseman, doing so from US colleges is a good move. While you sign your players at the same time, a guy who goes to college for 4 years is going to be 2 years older when you start his 3 years entry-level contract.
He’s gonna be bigger, stronger and more mature. Unless you’re picking early (ie: Adam Larsson), even first round defensemen need a few years to develop into NHL players.
by Simon Lamarche on Feb 2, 2012 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
This is something a lot of people just don’t understand. I remember hearing griping about McDonagh constantly because he was playing in the NCAA and they were SURE that he would be a bust. Defensemen usually take time, they aren’t all P.K. Subban.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
I’m guessing that Nill wouldn’t take over drafting because of the success Timmins has had, but that’s a legitimate criticism.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
It is a pretty sweet deal for an incoming GM really: marquee, highly-mediatized franchise, unlimited player budget, big salary dollars for yourself, and a real NHL lineup with essentially zero expectations for next season, which means you can sit on your hands and probably end up being credited with a giant turnaround.
This is very true. Especially if you make a big splash right away to get people on your side like buyout Gomez or sign Price to a reasonable deal.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
McGuire's popularity...
…is borne of the reality he is good at what he does.
McGuire is good at what he does not only because he tirelessly stays on top of things, he’s also gifted with a thought process and personality that makes for good television.
So, I get the call for him to be GM. I just think it’s a misplaced perception of what Pierre’s real talents are.
The downside to McGuire is he gets emotionally overwrought, which leads to comments like “Luke Schenn is one of the most complete players in the league,” and, as Berky highlights, Pierre’s tendency to stomp all over epic moments like Eberle’s tying marker with five seconds to go against the Russians.
For all his warts, I’ve missed McGuire’s colour this season and, as previously noted, had no doubt Ray Ferraro would come across abysmally in Pierre’s absence. Ferraro was particularly useless covering the WJC, a competition during which McGuire consistently adds value, even if he drops more names than Martin Short doing a guest turn on Conan.
[Difference being, Martin Short is a god.]
All to say this hardly qualifies him to be the GM of an NHL team. Pierre Houde does good F1, but I wouldn’t have him change my oil let alone hand him the CEO reins at GM.
The emotion that renders McGuire such an effective talking head is the same attribute that would hamstring him as a GM, more so in the blast furnace confine that is the Habs head office. The terrible calls he’s made as a commentator – and he has made some absolute doozies, something which Berky catalogues – the same ones that ostensibly get lost in the confused ether of things said a long time ago, would unfortunately be cemented in the reality of the team as it stands today, were he the GM making the hard decisions.
This is because emotion and accountability are unwieldy and, in the end, dysfunctional partners.
McGuire should just stick to his knitting.
by JD__ on Feb 2, 2012 2:18 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Accountability, that’s the word I was supposed to say. Dammit.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
Haven’t listened to the podcast yet, but I’m sure you came across well, Andrew.
If, however, you didn’t use the term accountability, you will be held accountable.
I think I spoke a bit fast. We’ll find out when it’s available on itunes.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
I think this is where it gets archived
I was just on Marek vs Wyshynski podcast, listen here.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 2:24 PM EST reply actions
I only heard the last couple of minutes. I have to wait until they archive it to go back and hear the whole thing. How did you feel about it?
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I think I got my points across clearly but may have spoken too quickly. I’ll find out when it’s archived I guess!
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
This encapsulates the myth and the legend that is Pierre McGuire.
Not only does McGuire jump all over the pick, but he mentions Jose Theodore, Cristobal Huet AND Yann Danis as reasons why it is "off the reservation". He talks about organizational need and forgets to mention…….Jaroslav Halak.
Typical McGuire analysis.
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Funny thing is, Bob Gainey in an interview right after that pick was made mentioned Halak as part of the organization’s plans in goal, that he hoped to re-sign Theodore, and said Price was picked not for need but because he was the best player available.
That “off the reservation” comment really bugged me. Never said it relating to any other player before or since that I can recall, just happened to be about the son of a First Nations Chief.
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This stuff goes to prove that he doesn’t research things as well as he would like us to believe.
If he is so up to date on junior players, why no mention of Halak who was great in the U18 and U20 tournament the two seasons prior to this draft? Then he mentions Huet as a strong suit and then contradicts that less than a year later.
This is his career in a nutshell.
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Full brief analysis
Great post, I agree with much of what you said, and I think one of the biggest reasons Habs fans are so in support of McGuire is because it is clear that many of the BIG mistakes Gainey and Gauthier made would not have been made by McGuire (Gomez and Kaberle in particular). I think he has two main issues: 1) Personality – seems a lot like a fan, isn’t always humble, history shows he’s the anti-Gauthier, very vocal and can rub people the wrong way. 2) Out of the industry – Don’t feel this is as big of an issue as others do, I think Pierre still knows how to be a GM in the 21st century. He is clearly a good hockey mind, and I feel like he would make GREAT hockey decisions and would institute structure and help the organization, I’m just a little worried about the whole thing self-destructing like it did 15 years ago if things don’t go well to start off with.
Ultimately, here’s my view. I would love a savvy experienced guy like Jim Nill, but language issues and whether or not Nill would want the job may make this impossible. If the options are more limited than we think, I would MUCH rather the team takes McGuire than go for an over the hill overrated francophone blob like Gauthier (or Martin, or who knows who else). We need a fresh innovative face, whether it’s Pierre or somebody else.
I agree about the fresh face, especially if we’re getting an innovator. That sentiment favours Julien Brisebois.
While McGuire likely wouldn’t have made the Gomez trade, he would have drafted Angelo Esposito instead of Ryan McDonagh, and Gilbert Brule instead of Carey Price. In that respect he would have the organization in a far worse position.
As for Kaberle, that trade wasn’t a mistake. He’s playing well and anything we get for him in a trade is gravy because we gave up literally nothing for him.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
That is what drives me nuts about McGuire. He has taken the approach that if I tell everybody I am the best enough times, everybody will believe it.
He comments on EVERY move that is made, yet has convinced everybody he is at close to 100%. How can you comment on every deal with little research and conclusively be correct the majority of the time? You can’t.
His PR machine hyperbolic character is a genius. His observations are not.
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He knows how to generate buzz, I’ll give him that.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Yep, the Kaberle trade is getting something for nothing. However, you could call it a mistake in that a PP specialist wasn’t what the Habs needed at the time.
I guess Carolina wasn’t biting on Spacek for Staal.
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by Chris Boyle on Feb 2, 2012 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
While drafting Angelo Esposito ahead of McDonagh would have been an epic blunder, I dare say the organization would be in better shape today had this happened…
by HighFructoseCornSyrupSince72 on Feb 2, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
If the choice is between Gomez and no McDonagh or neither of them plus a bust, there is no way on earth the team is better off with the second option.
The problem is that everybody has distanced themselves from the 2010 playoff run like it never happened. Whether fans like it or not, since Gomez joined the Habs they have played 26 playoff games.
It took the Habs 2009 (4), 2008 (12), 2006 (6) and 2004 (11) to play more playoff games.
Three plus seasons of playoffs to match post Gomez output.
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But it isn’t.
It’s a choice between Gomez and whoever we would be paying $7.5M / yr in his stead.
Gaborik say. Or Brad Richards.
The problem with Gomez isn’t only his cap hit, it’s that he has some sort of magical ability to rob his linemates of their vitality and skill.
by HighFructoseCornSyrupSince72 on Feb 2, 2012 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
That’s fantasy land though. Neither Gaborik or Richards would have ever come to Montreal. We can’t just magically spend that money wherever we want.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
If rumors are to be believed (I know…) Richards wanted nothing to do with Montreal. Gaborik is a winger and was a free agent at a time when the Hab’s best centers were Plekanec coming out of an off year and Maxim Lapierre. Gomez filled a need and did, an still does, an admirable job at it.
Does Gomez also have a magical power that make the team noticeably worse when he’s out of the lineup?
Does Gomez also have a magical power that make the team noticeably worse when he’s out of the lineup?
Yes. Yes he does.
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by Chris Boyle on Feb 2, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
How?
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
Yep. And possibly no Cammalleri and Gionta (based on rumours that Gomez helped draw them to Montreal). With that, no 2010 playoff run and no Eller for Halak.
It is a silly game to play because maybe Gainey trades somebody else for Gomez instead of McDonagh.
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I would be fine with Brisebois presuming that he has acquired enough knowledge of the game through Yzerman to offset the fact he has a strictly business background.
In terms of drafting, saying Pierre would have taken Brule isn’t necessarily true. He has only said he liked Brule, Kopitar, and Staal. I personally think based on his comments he would have taken Staal, which wouldn’t have been a bad pick in a round that was filled with busts.
When it comes to McDonagh, I remember that he was the guy I REALLY wanted, and while you may be right about him wanting Esposito for Montreal, I think there is a more complicated discussion that must follow. Esposito was seen as a star, and when a francophone who had been projected #1 overall falls into your lap at 12, there is a lot to be said for the fact that (hindsight aside), we SHOULD have taken him. Think about what happened with Claude Giroux. He fell into our lap, we ignored him, and he ended up a star. Much of the draft is a crapshoot, and I think all Pierre was saying is that he couldn’t believe Montreal had passed him up. Remember that teams should have much more in-depth scouting than a TSN colour-man should.
When evaluating, I care much more about pro-scouting for a new GM (at least over ‘speculative’ draft history, because who knows who McGuire ACTUALLY would have picked).
All I know is, and it’s something I (a 19-year old fan with above-average hockey knowledge but no formal training) knew at the time. Gomez was a HORRIFIC trade, and Kaberle will be making far too much money on our books for the next 2 years. We needed a shooter on the PP and we got a guy who is afraid to shoot.
Maybe more than out of hope for a cup, I want McGuire as a GM out of curiosity – I’m sure we all wonder what he COULD make out of team – considering how vocal he is. More than anything though, I just hope Molson changes the culture around the team to something we haven’t had in our lifetime. We must recognize the talent gap between especially us and the Bruins – it’s something my Chicago Bears recently did with regards to the Packers with new management – and refuse to go into a season without a roster that we actually think is one of the tops in the league (unless we think a full rebuild is necessary, but I really don’t think so).
Sorry for the long response, but this decision will determine the future of the club for the next decade or longer.
And by we, I mean an organization that I am not affiliated with in any way.
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Busted!
Nice try, Pierre Gauthier…
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
Brisebois doesn’t have a strictly business background. He was the GM of the Hamilton Bulldogs for several years and is now doing the same job for the Norfolk Admirals.
McGuire said several times on draft day that he would have taken Brule. Even if he would have taken Staal it would be a terrible pick considering what Price has become.
McGuire wasn’t just bemoaning the Habs for missing out on Esposito because of the Francophone thing, he was upset the kid was falling in the draft as he was a “sure thing”.
So McGuire’s speculation with hindsight on pro scouting is more valuable than his speculation with hindsight on drafting?
Gomez was a bad trade. McGuire doesn’t have special knowledge on that.
Kaberle won’t be here for 2 more years, he’ll be traded after Montreal boosts his value as they’re doing right now (13 points in 21 games). The idea that we needed a shooter when we have Subban and Weber who are both shooters is absurd. The problem with the PP is coaching, not personnel.
I’m not a big fan of a major hire out of curiousity.
Don’t ever apologize for a long response man! On this site we enjoy long thoughtful comments. Hope you don’t think I’m being to harsh with my response.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
Or too put it more bluntly. I’d much rather curiosity hires happen to teams I have no stake in their success.
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by Stephan Cooper on Feb 2, 2012 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
This.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
I probably subscribe too much to the “goaltenders are hard to evaluate, the difference isn’t that much” but with hindsight had the Habs rolled a 3-sided die and took Staal or Kopitar (with Brulé being the third side) they might have been better off. I also don’t think we can say Price has become a great goaltender yet despite his technical greatness but I’m talking about an area where my knowledge sucks.
At the time I wasn’t thrilled with the Price pick but I wasn’t against it either. Theodore was up there in age, Huet was an unknown quantity, Halak was a late-round pick who had played well. The pick made sense to me at the time and looking back it’s not a bad pick. I don’t think it was a great one either, yet.
Agreed, though with the necessary hindsight mention. At the time I was just happy the Habs hadn’t picked Brulé, Same with Esposito in 2007 (and Koivu back in 2001… oops. Though they hadn’t had the chance to take him).
While armchair drafting is fun I recognize I was basically playing a fake lottery at the time, not having any in-depth knowledge of prospects, tools, or player development in general never mind the prospects themselves. Microstats (and the terrible junior stat-keeping) have completely ruined that aspect of following hockey for me though.
Personally I find Kopitar extremely overrated. He’s a first line center for sure, but not a franchise one. He’s hit 30 goals twice in 6 years. I’d put him somewhere around top 10 to top 15 centers in the league, whereas Price is already a top 5 goaltender before he’s in his prime.
Staal is okay but he’s more of a younger, slightly better Gorges than someone who’s worth a 5th overall pick. I also don’t buy that it was only between those two players. McGuire never mentioned Kopitar until he broke in and played well. We could just have easily ended up with Brian Lee or Jack Skille.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
This is nothing but gut-feel and looking at save-percentage (flawed as it is) but I’m not comfortable saying that Price is a top-5 goaltender in the league yet. Now he easily could be as I wouldn’t be able to put together a top-5 or top-10 list of NHL goaltenders.
I could be wrong, but I think the Price/Staal dichotomy was at the time one of Gainey or Timmins saying something along the lines of they could take a franchise goaltender or a franchise defenseman and they took the defenseman. That could have been a myth that came out of the Montreal media/fan environment though.
Staal isn’t a franchise defenseman. In order to be a franchise defenseman you have to be elite on both sides of the puck.
Judging a goaltender by SV% puts Bob Froese in the discussion for greatest season of all-time by a goaltender. Coincidently on the heels of Pelle Lindbergh’s Vezina and directly before Ron Hextall’s Vezina.
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The Staal thing was back in 2005, he clearly hasn’t developed as such and I don’t know if he was good enough in junior for that expectation to be realistic at the time.
He only had one good offensive year in Sudbury and it was after he was drafted, but all the Staals were overrated after Eric.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
In his defense, he rarely played on good teams after that season and he was probably getting easier matchups behind Brind’amour in 05-06. Not to mention that the NHL isn’t as free-wheeling as it was coming out of the lookout.
True. I’d still move a hell of a lot to make Eric Staal the top line center on the Habs.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
Put it this way, if we lost Gomez and Moen and got Staal, would you be happy with that?
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
That’s only 900 000$ more than Gomez until his age 32 season. As Gomez’s replacement in the “big money centre” role, I would like him.
Imagine Plekanec still taking all the tough competition and Staal taking secondaries. Eller in an exploitation role. Daaaaamn.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
Sure, just a little concerned what happens 5 years from now.
Personally, I’d glance Columbus’s way and see if they’re willing to dump Carter on the cheap. Guy’s actually on the trade block and his cap hit is a lot more reasonable.
Signed for much longer though, isn’t he? LIke 10 more years or something?
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 7:31 PM EST up reply actions
Sure, if the Jackets are dumb enough to sell low on Carter he would be great. But I’m not sure like the10 year contract.
Me neither, but realistically, that brings his value down in assets. His cap hit is only at five and change. Even if he declines into a second liner that wouldn’t be massive overpayment until the very last few years.
The other thing is that there’s at least of couple new CBAs that are going to happen between now and then.
His NTC doesn’t kick in until July 1st either so if you can get him before then you can decide not to vest it. That eases up on the future a bit.
Honestly i don’t see Columbus dealing him until they get a new GM (which itself should be sooner rather than later). Columbus likely won’t get back what they gave up to get Carter and the sunk cost will probably hang around in Scott Howson’s neck when he’s making decisions.
One Staal or another
Ever since since Erik Cole came over I’ve held hopes that Eric Staal would follow next season – or if we could pry Jordan Staal away from the Pens.
Keep in mind, modern statistical analysis almost exclusively examines the modern, parity-driven, salary-capped, filled-with-butterfly-goalies era. Older eras didn’t have the parity, the defensive systems, or the goaltender technique, so the findings of nowadays may not (and in fact probably do not) apply in the same way.
They don’t. You can’t compare Gretzky’s 215 straight up to Crosby’s 100+ points. You can compare them to peers.
Number one in the league is number one in the league. Regardless of era.
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My point is, teams’ ability to drive shooting percentage and, yes, save percentage isn’t necessarily the same either.
For example, it’s entirely possible that the Oilers or Habs of yesteryear had special shooting percentage talent compared to their peers, yet that nowadays thanks to all the changes int he game, the teams are so close together that any difference between them gets overwhelmed by noise.
I’m going by technique and by what I hear from experts. From everyone I’ve talked to who scouts goalies, people are skeptical that anyone else in the league could put up with what Price has at his age and still be on track. Justin Goldman last year said he put Price easily in the top 5, likely the top in the league in the next few years unless some wonderkind comes along.
Personally I think too much is made of the so-called small differences in goalie talent from top to bottom. Sometimes people forget what a pressure cooker it is here for goalies.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
It isn’t that there isn’t a talent divide between Price and Budaj, the point is that bad goaltenders can handle NHL shooters if you provide them with support. In the 80s/90s if a goaltender wasn’t NHL quality he was out of the league quickly.
Carey Price has the most ability of any goaltender in the NHL and if he had come up on the Wings like Howard then he would be a legend already.
SV% is not indicative of ability. Go look at the 1980-1983 Habs. Stiffs like Herron, Wamsley, Sevigny were putting up gawdy numbers, not because they were good, but because the Habs gave up nothing.
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Totally agree. I just feel like there was a backlash against money goalies after the 2010 finals, so lots of people think you can get near equivalent talent at a quarter of the price.
Then I look at Boston and Vancouver and both have fit in elite goalies at sizeable salaries under the cap. (for the sake of argument let’s pretend Thomas is elite because of his salary, but really I’m talking about Rask).
Basically I think there are a lot of ways to save money in the current cap situation, and too many people look only to goaltending.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
You can win with a mediocre goaltender, but you can’t accomplish it without a stacked roster elsewhere.
An elite goaltender is a band-aid. It can congeal small cuts, it can slow the flow of blood in a larger cut, but the greatest band-aid in the world is not going to stop a gaping head wound.
Teams like Detroit have the puck all the time, so they place a tiny burden on Howard’s shoulders. He doesn’t need to be great to win. He is replaceable.
The way the Habs are constructed today, Price is irreplaceable. If they are a Cup contender with their core locked up and an elite set of forwards and D, then you can sacrifice in goal. Until then you give him the money and let him increase your winning percentage.
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For sure. Just looking around the league though, how many teams are sustainably built like the Wings? Chicago was for one season with Niemi and had to blow it up. They’re still good but Crawford is a superior goaltender in my opinion and helps out more.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
The Sharks have done it. The Flyers have done it for the better part of 30 years and an argument can be made the Devils did it for a decade plus.
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That’s still not many. I think for an extra 2-3M on an elite goalie, hoping Price signs for ~5M a season for awhile, you could build that same elite team and keep the goaltending.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
The Kaberle trade was a solid move even before the guy hit the ice.
Spacer’s trade deadline value as an aged, pending UFA was just about nil. With a lineup of UFA D-men that is nothing special, and looking at comparable D-men salaries, the Habs could easily land a pick for Kabs during the offseason. Even a late draft pick is worth more than Spacer.
The trade was money for nothing and chicks for free.
The D needed a QB, not a shooter. Kabs is no Markov, but, in that respect, he’s an improvement on Spacer.
This trade was more about what Carolina wanted to do, more than anything else, and the Habs were the beneficiaries.
As for McGuire, I’d prefer ownership not execute on the basis of curiosity nor wonder.
But, hey, you’re still young. At least you can hold out hope you’ll see a parade before you get to my age.
You're old.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
I think what you meant to say is:
Not as old as Punkster.
Because he’s OLD.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
Obviously I wouldn’t want us to hire a guy simply out of curiosity, that was more an aside than anything, so let’s leave that. I just meant more that all things aside, I wouldn’t mind him being say the Senators next GM because I’m curious how he would do.
In terms of the PP, I’ve always had the view that Subban is better as a secondary shooter option/passer. That is what he was last season where Wisniewski had more PP goals and was the primary threat, which opened Subban up (the reason why for example he scored those slapshot blasts last year that seem far more contested this year). I feel like Markov and Subban and Kaberle and Subban don’t complement each other well for that reason. Souray, Streit, Schneider, Bergeron were all threatening shooters that would have done well beside Subban like they did beside Markov.
If we trade Kaberle, then I agree the trade was beneficial, but that remains to be seen….that’s a pretty huge contract. He’s a liability defensively, and he hasn’t really helped our powerplay (it’s still last).
It’s hard to predict what’s going to happen in terms of GM because who knows what goes on in interviews, but if I’m Geoff Molson, here’s what I’m looking for
1) Somebody with a solid draft history, who can find STARS, (i know the scouting department has a lot to do with this), and this will be especially key if we get a top pick this year (Grigorenko? – we NEED a top centre above all else).
2) Somebody with a distinctive plan to make this team into NOT a team that’s competitive, or can make the playoffs, or can be exciting, or can ride hot goaltending, a team that IS the best in the NHL.
3) For me that would mean isolating players who ARE going to be a part of that team, and finding a way to capitalize on the others. For me, the players I would keep around to be a part of that team are: Plekanec, Pacioretty, Gorges, Subban, Emelin, Price, and then some possibles: Cole, Bourque, Eller, White, Blunden. Add that to prospects like Leblanc, Kristo, Gallagher, Beaulieu, etc. I would consider trading Desharnais as a part of a package for a big #1 centre.
4) Finding a coach who can win Stanley Cups, who is young and can be here for a while, and who is the right guy for the job. If this isn’t Guy Boucher, find another guy with similar potential out of juniors. Start him in Hamilton and this time don’t make the mistake of losing him.
If all this happens, the team will have a promising future. There is no time to waste.
Arik, I’m sorry but you’re completely out to lunch here. Subban wasn’t ever a secondary shooter on the PP. He was the primary one. Wisniewski didn’t have more PP goals than Subban, he had 4 to Subban’s 9. Subban had more PP goals last year than any other defenseman in the entire NHL. Not only that, but his shot production was superior to Wiz as well. Subban fired. 2.6 shots per game last year, Wiz fired 2.0 shots per game. The reason Subban isn’t scoring on the PP is because half the time he’s playing on the wrong side and he’s not being allowed to pinch in like he was last year.
Listing Blunden as a keeper in the same breath as Eller and Cole does not make it look like you’ve thought this through.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough about Wiz and Subban, didn’t look at the stats was just going by what I remember, but I still feel like some of the pressure was taken off him because of Wiz’s ability to shoot that Kaberle doesn’t have.
My list of keepers wasn’t a judgment of how good they are or how valuable. I have Cole as a partial keeper only because he’s getting up there in age. I like what Blunden can bring to a 4th line, and he’s young. That’s why I put him there.
Kaberle has a good enough shot and shoots enough that players still cover him. What you’re seeing is Subban playing too far back to the blueline which makes him easier to angle off. Markov isn’t a shooter exactly and he runs a powerplay better than nearly every other defenseman in the league.
I see, then Eller should probably be in your top list. But Blunden isn’t good enough to put on any list, his type of player is a dime a dozen.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Why does everyone keep saying Kaberle is a huge contract? Two more years at $4.25M? That isn’t huge. It’s less than what we gave Spacek, who was older and never and good.
4.25M is the going rate for a UFA d-man who can score points. Sure, I’d rather have a healthy Markov, but Kaberle’s contract is modest.
by HighFructoseCornSyrupSince72 on Feb 2, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
4.25 is not less than we were giving Spacek. Spacek was making about 3.8, but it’s more than length of the contract than the $. Kaberle is more of a rich man’s Bergeron (although better passing/worse shot than a poor man’s markov, and look at how much Marc-Andre is making
I think your hope is actually bu biggest fear. The organization has changed since Gainey became GM. They drafted and got production from Andrei Kostitsyn, Maxim Lapierre, Ryan O’Byrne, Jaroslav Halak, Mark Streit, Carey Price, Guillaume Latendresse, Sergei Kostitsyn, Max Pacioretty and P.K. Subban. That’s for only five drafts and not counting guys that were traded or haven’t played significantly in the NHL yet. A return on the draft better than most teams.
The aging veteran core of the team was replaced with younger guys in 2009, an experienced coach was hired for the first time in years and the club started outshouting and outchancing the opposition, something unseen since the days of Jacques Demers if I’m not mistaken.
The Rebuilding project that followed the disastrous Houle era has produced a good team and results like the best record in the East in 2008 or the trip to the ECF in 2010 should be a sign that things have changed for the best in Montreal.
The Gainey regime, an its continuation with Gauthier, is the best thing to happen to the team in 20 years, but since Molson took a more hand on role with the team, PG started acting out of character and that worries me. I don’t want things to change, I want them to stay what they were a year ago.
by Hypnotoad on Feb 2, 2012 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Sam Pollock wasn’t an ex-pro but was involved with teams through his 20s and took over as a GM at 37/38 after 4 years as director of player personnel. I’m not concerned if my GM hasn’t played the game. Brisebois has been putting in the time and I’d at least give him an interview at this point. The fact that he’s on the AHL competition committee shows he’s got a well respected view on issues of gameplay, too. He’s worked directly with Gainey and Yzerman, can’t imagine how he hasn’t learned a lot about the sport through them.
While he holds a MBA and law degree, his job experience is completely involved in sports business/law, so essentially his entire career has been in the field.
Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.
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How pissed would you be if Yzerman wouldn’t give the Habs permission to talk to Brisebois?
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After they gave permission to hire him AND Boucher. I feel like Montreal would implode with anger.
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Nice job Andrew.
The biggest problem I have with McGuire as candidate is he’s been out of the game for almost as long as Serge Savard has (media work doesn’t count in my book). It’s been an eternity since Pierre has had a hockey job and it’s not like he’s publishing ground-breaking or detailed analysis on the side to keep up with the game.
McGuire’s track record in the past record (as you showed) comes down to some favourable and unfavourable soundbites. There may be more good than bad but all that’s out there is a lot of short statements rather than anything of substance.
Thanks!
As unfair as it is for me to criticize McGuire’s statements with hindsight, it’s just as unfair when he does it to executives around the league.
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
Whew...
…between this article, the 1994 Hartford article and the comments here I’m thoroughly convinced.
I am old.
by punkster on Feb 2, 2012 6:43 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Well at least you still have your wits about you. More than I can say for ManParts on HIO.
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 2, 2012 6:44 PM EST up reply actions
Oldie but a goodie
Shows what players think of McGuire:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=-6_kQfqYJy8
















