Trade Deadline Speculation
Around this point of the season, hockey fans start to wonder what their favourite team is going to look like as it heads into the playoffs, or if the playoffs aren't a realistic possibility, what their team will look like in October. A lot of this speculation has to do with the imminence of the "trade deadline" and rightly so as front offices are deciding whether or not they are "buyers" or "sellers", "tinkerers" or "mad scientists". This year our beloved Canadiens are almost certainly out of the playoff picture and they have already placed themselves in the "sellers" camp by trading Hal Gill for Blake Geoffrion and a pick. We do not yet know if management will try to "blow up" the team or if it will simply look to get rid of the contracts that are easiest to get rid of and pick up whatever scraps of prospect talent or draft picks that play-off bound teams deem expendable.
I thought it would be interesting for the HEOTP community to have a place where we could speculate wildly or reasonably about what PG and friends may do as 'Deadline Day" approaches. The idea is that if you hear of a rumour, wish to create one, or would like to speculate on what may happen this month, put it here in the comment section of this post and let the rest of us comment, tweak, constructively criticise, fidget and dream too. Hopefully the real "Deadline Day" will be of the "Cocoa Beach Fantasy" variety and not "Nightmare on Coronation Street", but I'm sure we'll come up with scenarios which would fit in both.
Speculate away!
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To start things off
What would be an optimal, yet possible return for AK47? One possible scenario could involve a familiar dance partner in the St Louis Blues. Hitchcock has really settled in quickly and the team has responded, due in large part to the mediation efforts of Captain Backes. They are playing strong puck-possession hockey and are contending for a spot in the Playoffs and beyond. But Hitchcock is new and hasn’t had a chance to clean out any players that don’t fit into his plan yet. That’s where we could come in: a deal centred around Kostitsyn and Chris Stewart might suit both teams as it gives the Blues a top6 forward in exchange for a player who has been relegated to the 4th line of late. But it would also give us another rugged offensive winger who should benefit from the tutelage of Cole and the assistance of Pleks. The Cammy-Bourque trade seems to indicate we’re trying to get bigger and tougher to play against. Stewart is still young and has a lot of potential. It could happen
I don’t see anything major happening. Our team is filled with players of the following categories:
1) Underachievers in relation to contract- Gomez, Gionta, Kaberle and Markov. Mostly this is due to injuries, with the exception of Gomez and Kaberle. Gomez, however, still contributes to our team, just not on a level on par with the cap hit. No one is going to want to touch any 3 of these, and I doubt we’d trade our injured captain. Kaberle will probably stay, simply because no one will offer anywhere near full market value for him, due to the financial commitment of 2 more seasons on his contract.
2) Untouchables- Plekanec, Eller, Cole, Pacioretty, Emelin, Leblanc, Gorges, Price, Subban. Want to make your team improve? Trade away the rock solid foundations. None of these guys are going anywhere, Unless somebody makes an offer we can’t refuse, or PG has a major cranial malfunction.
3) Marginal Players- Moen, Palushaj, Campoli, White, Nokelainen, Blunden. One or two of these guys might go, but the return will be minimal. Personally, I’d prefer to not lose Moen or White, and Nokia might be serviceable as a solid 4th line centre. However, you’re never going to get much.
Which leaves….
Deharnais- He’s quickly played himself closer to the untouchables category. People might question how he performs against tough competition, but do you want to screw with the chemistry he’s developed with Patches and Cole? Furthermore, he’s got the look of a player who’s game improved consistently throughout the season. Not going anywhere.
Bourque- You won’t get anywhere near fair market value for him, and it would make the front office look like idiots for trading for him to begin with. An ‘enigma’ player, who has had his effort level questioned, but has proven himself a strong 2nd line winger with Calgary in the past. Not going anywhere.
AK 46- Apparently everyone in the Montreal media is waiting on baited breath for this trade, but I don’t see it. His basic numbers would diminish his trade value, while his advanced stats don’t look as polished, as he’s always put out on the ice as a counter to other teams’ strong lines. So why should we trade him? Because he doesn’t score enough goals from the 4th line? He may go regardless, and we will probably regret it unless Gauthier gets a strong player or high pick in return.
Diaz- At every trade deadline, there is the inevitable trade for a ‘puck-moving defenseman’. There’s an outside shot someone will give PG a good offer for Diaz, but it would have to be very good to pry him away, when Campoli is the obvious guy to go, being higher paid and the more veteran of the two.
Darche- He’s played much better of late, but I don’t see teams clamouring at the door for him. He’s got a solid touch, and he plays hard defensively, but he’s also rather slow. Maybe a 3rd/4th line winger for a contender, and I don’t see us fetching much for that.
Taking all this into account, I don’t see us being nearly as busy as predicted. We had a poor start to the season, and also a slew of injuries. We don’t really know how good this team can be, and without a permanent head coach/GM combo, I don’t see anyone wanting to make major moves. There’s too many pieces an incoming GM/coach would likely see as valuable to getting the team back on track, and too few players who could realistically fetch much on the open market.
AK47's a goner
Despite the popular sentiment that AK47 would like to stay in MTL, I doubt it’s going to happen. Either way, in the next week he’ll either be extended or traded. This has the potential of being a ‘sell-low’ which we seem to be really good at doing (look no further than Andrei’s brother), but being a known “seller” does have some advantages in that bidding wars can begin and this makes “selling” general managers more greedy and shrewd.. which should help our chances of getting a decent return.
"Marginal Players" for "Marginal Prospects"
Of the marginal players you mentioned, Moen, Campoli (and Darche) will almost certainly be traded by the deadline. If we are rebuilding or even just refurbishing, you want to turn your UFA-destined players into something tangible. Our GM and scouting team will likely target draft picks and ‘marginal prospects’. Geoffrion fell into this category as he’s 23 and didn’t take hold of a roster spot this year as expected. Many prospects in that age-range will need to be exposed to waivers next year if a team wants them to continue developing in the minors, so they are easier to pry away then younger prospects. I don’t have a good sense of who falls into the ‘marginal prospect’ category that we may be interested in, but I’m sure Timmins and crew are all over this.
Diamond in the Rough?
One such “marginal prospect” that I would like us to at least take a shot at is New Jersey’s Nick Palmieri. Anyone else have other suggestions?
Steps to take
This team is a mess because mistake after mistake has lead to no cap space left.
The first step is to get a new GM. St. Patrick Roy comes to mind.
Gomez has got to go on waivers as the second step. Cap space has got to be freed up before anything can be done.
Third step is a 2nd round pick for AK47.
Geez, Kaberle has two more years @$4.25. What kind of drugs were they taking at the time that happened? He probably can’t be moved either.
SO.. we can get a 2nd rounder and 2 prospects for Gill but we can only hope for a 2nd rounder for AK??
by Cruisin4aBruisin on Feb 24, 2012 1:32 PM EST reply actions
If Anaheim decides to be a buyer
They might want Moen back. Or SJ may make us an offer for him to tighten up the defensive side of their game

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