Game Thread: Habs Host Devils as Uphill Climb Continues

by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 19, 2012 5:00 PM EST in Habs Game Threads

New Jersey Devils at Montreal Canadiens, Feb 19, 2012 6:00 PM EST

The Montreal Candadiens woke up this morning, finding themselves in 13th place in the NHL's Eastern Conference. The good news is that they remained six points back of the eighth place Toronto Maple Leafs. Only now, there's a couple more clubs sandwiched in between them.

Their opponents on the early evening, the New Jersey Devils, sit sixth in the Conference, but have to watch their backs to maintain their position.

The Devils don't seem to have that concern at the moment, going 7-1-2 in their last ten games. They have also picked up wins in their last two meetings with the Canadiens, both 5-3 decisions.

In both of those games, New Jersey scored three unanswered goals and stole four precious points from the Canadiens. You have to think the Habs will have that on their minds tonight, especially with a playoof chance still within their grasp.

Zach Parise and Ilya Kovalchk will be the Devils forwards that the Canadiens will want to contain. Parise has 11 points in the Devils last ten games, while Kovalchuk has 17 points in his last nine.

Louis Leblanc is under the weather, so Aaron Palushaj will take his spot in the lineup.

"The Pawn" Carey Price will get the start in goal for the Canadiens. As expected, Martin Brodeur gets the call for the Devils.

This Day in Habs History

1977: Yvan Cournoyer records his 399th and 400th career goals with the Canadiens, and Jaacques Lemaire scored his 300th. The Habs beat the Philadelphia Flyers 5-2, extending their home unbeaten streak to 23 games (18-0-5).

1955: Boom -Boom Geoffrion scored 5 goals, and Doug Harvey had 5 assists in a 10-2 thumping of the New York Rangers.

The Canadiens will honor the passing of Gary Carter with a pre-game video tribute. The players will wear No. 8 jersey's in the pregame warm-up and decals on their helmets. The jerseys will be auctioned off, with proceeds going towards the Gary Carter Foundation. The family has also released his official obituary.

MONTREAL CANADIENS PROJECTED LINEUP

Forwards

Max Pacioretty - David Desharnais - Erik Cole

Mathieu Darche - Tomas Plekanec - Rene Bourque

Andrei Kostitsyn - Lars Eller - Aaron Palushaj

Yannick Weber / Double Shift - Scott Gomez - Ryan White

Defensemen

Josh Gorges - P.K. Subban

Raphael Diaz - Alexei Emelin

Tomas Kaberle - Chris Campoli

Goalies

Carey Price - Peter Budaj

NEW JERSEY DEVILS PROJECTED LINEUP

Forwards

Zach Parise - Adam Henrique - Ilya Kovalchuk

Petr Sykora - Patrik Elias - David Clarkson

Alexei Ponikarovsky - Dainius Zubrus - Steve Bernier

Eric Boulton - Jacob Josefson - Nick Palmieri

Defensemen

Mark Fayne - Andy Greene

Bryce Salvador - Anton Volchenkov

Matt Taormina - Kurtis Foster

Goalies

Martin Brodeur - Johan Hedberg

Devils vs Canadiens coverage

SBN Devils coverage from In Lou We Trust

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Comments

Ahhhh, feel the tradition of Sunday night hockey.

I have no doubt everyone out there has set up the den hammock and is knee-deep in salmon tartar and sangria.

by JD__ on Feb 19, 2012 5:47 PM EST reply actions

Does a pot of coffee and a pack of Exports count?

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

All the power to you; the slate is blank.

by JD__ on Feb 19, 2012 6:13 PM EST up reply actions

No Leblanc…dang…

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 6:03 PM EST reply actions

Beautiful ceremony.

RIP number 8.

Writer for http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/

by Stephan Cooper on Feb 19, 2012 6:13 PM EST reply actions

Nice job for Gary.

And the Bell Centre crowd actually showed their respect. Props.

by JD__ on Feb 19, 2012 6:14 PM EST reply actions

RIP Gary…very classy ceremony

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 6:14 PM EST reply actions

I had the volume down, so I’ll have to watch it gagin later. Teared up a bit though

Kevin van Steendelaar

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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 19, 2012 6:32 PM EST up reply actions

Nice play by Darche to get an early scoring chance…

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 6:18 PM EST reply actions

Typical game against Jersey.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 19, 2012 6:29 PM EST reply actions

Glad CJAD asked me to join them at 6pm. Knew I wouldn’t miss much in the first period.

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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 19, 2012 6:31 PM EST up reply actions

Geoffrion, Blake

Another assist tonight

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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 19, 2012 6:32 PM EST reply actions

make that two!!

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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 19, 2012 6:36 PM EST up reply actions

and both on the PP

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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 19, 2012 6:37 PM EST up reply actions

Ouch…Volchenkov’s a pretty tough cat, but that looks like a broken cheek/jaw…

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 6:35 PM EST reply actions

Thought it got the earflap. But that’s two in a week for Plekanec.

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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 19, 2012 6:36 PM EST up reply actions

No one can complain about him not shooting anymore…

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 6:37 PM EST up reply actions

So, that save at the ASG Skills Competition wasn’t a fluke.

by JD__ on Feb 19, 2012 6:36 PM EST reply actions

Looks like a game Price will have to steal, can’t get much O going.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 19, 2012 6:45 PM EST reply actions

Gomez and AK look like they have some zip…and the Eller-Palushaj combo showed a little flash early…

Our defense needs to be sharper at their blue line. We’re going to need shots from the point, and there’s been a number of bobbles already.

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 6:48 PM EST up reply actions

Brodeur is a terrible goalie. They really need to just crowd the slot and shoot hard and low. They could put 5 past him tonight on rebounds alone.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 19, 2012 6:51 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed, but they do a good job of protecting him. Its incumbent upon the D to make sure they’re ready at the points when our forwards to manage to win the puck in their end.

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 6:55 PM EST up reply actions

They do a great job protecting him, but we have enough big bodies who should be willing to pay that price.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 19, 2012 7:08 PM EST up reply actions

NJ gets so many of those dumb luck goals.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 19, 2012 6:46 PM EST reply actions

That’s true

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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 19, 2012 6:47 PM EST up reply actions

And after little confusion after a draw…1-0 Devils

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 6:46 PM EST reply actions

Does the first goal always have to be unlucky?

by JD__ on Feb 19, 2012 6:47 PM EST reply actions

Cunneyworth getting massively outcoached as usual.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 19, 2012 6:47 PM EST reply actions

Nice shot PK.

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by Stephan Cooper on Feb 19, 2012 6:49 PM EST reply actions

Subban can’t buy a goal, even when he beats the goalie.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 19, 2012 6:49 PM EST reply actions

Scoring Chances

+2/-4 at ES, nothing on Special Teams

Cole and Campoli +0/-3, Diaz +1/-3, Eller +0/-2. That’s pretty much it.

Gomez is +1/-0 and I like what he’s bringing tonight, but it looks like he’s too fast for AK and White :)

Desharnais and Pleks look overmatched, even tough Desharnais’s line got some nice pressure to end the 1st.

by Olivier on Feb 19, 2012 6:56 PM EST reply actions

Another thing: it’s one of those game where the 2 man forecheck doesn’t help; Devils always enter our zone with speed. I know everybody love Randy’s Big Bodies Banging Down Low™ (nice title for a gay porn movie, I know), but fact is, with our D, letting the opposition go down on them (get your mind out of the gutter!) with speed isn’t the best way of going about, I think.

by Olivier on Feb 19, 2012 7:00 PM EST up reply actions

What’cha doing on the web there, Oliver ;)

Seriously though, I have what may be a dummy question- is Randy trying to protect the 3rd/4th lines by giving our top two lines the toughest matchups? Just seemed to me that might be what he was attempting…

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 7:03 PM EST up reply actions

I’m not entirely convinced Randy plays a hard-matchup game. It seems to me he matches Pleks+Subban/Gorges on the opposition’s top line and then kinda sorta rolls his lines with some extra OZone faceoffs given to Desharnais.

But I’m not sure at all. He certainly doesn’t look like he hard matches the rest of his D (again, not sure for tonight).

by Olivier on Feb 19, 2012 7:05 PM EST up reply actions

This URL might help you figure it out:

http://timeonice.com/SC1112.html?GameNumber=20877&submit=Go

Looks like Gomez is playing against Zubrus?

by Olivier on Feb 19, 2012 7:07 PM EST up reply actions

Actually

If you lineup Gomez, Pleks, Desharnais and Eller, it’s pretty clear he ain’t matching at all, just rolling 1-2-3-4 all the way.

Lazy ass.

by Olivier on Feb 19, 2012 7:08 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for the link-

Yeah, he’s got no sense to it at all…Eller’s hardly playing, after matching up well against Elias early on. Then he just thumps Plek out there for all the hard stuff.

I don’t get why he wouldn’t drop DD or Plek to an exploitation line with Kostitsyn/Gomez/Bourque. If we had a third line capable of hitting at their 3rd/4th, we’d probably get somewhere…

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 7:12 PM EST up reply actions

Bulldogs lighting up the Americans. Three goals in the third, four PP goals on the night.

Berger gets his first of the season.

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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 19, 2012 7:11 PM EST reply actions

Shots are really 15-4? Christ.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 19, 2012 7:18 PM EST reply actions

Oh way to take the Lord’s name in vain and throw that Arch Bishop’s pleas for prayers out the window! :p

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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 19, 2012 7:22 PM EST up reply actions

Fortunately for the Habs, NJ has blown a couple of easy setups around Price.

by JD__ on Feb 19, 2012 7:23 PM EST up reply actions

Tough to root against the team but winning really isn’t in their interests.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 19, 2012 7:29 PM EST up reply actions

Someone should tell Bourque he’s allowed to skate with the puck behind the other team’s net. That must be the 3rd/4th time he’s lost the puck right after getting the zone.

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 7:30 PM EST reply actions

Bourque was so good there when he lost his man and didn’t bother making an effort to do anything.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 19, 2012 7:40 PM EST reply actions

Best trade ever!

by Simon Lamarche on Feb 19, 2012 7:40 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

I think cammalleri would have done a much better job. He was always so engaged defensively.

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 7:54 PM EST up reply actions

Sigh…2-0 Devils…

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 7:40 PM EST reply actions

Yeah I think we can kiss those 2 points goodbye

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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 19, 2012 7:49 PM EST up reply actions

The Jersey kiss of death…at least no one ends up in a river with cement on their feet.

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 7:56 PM EST up reply actions

Dispiriting doesn’t quite capture it.

by JD__ on Feb 19, 2012 7:40 PM EST reply actions

Another fluky goal for the Devils

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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 19, 2012 7:40 PM EST reply actions

Geffrion named Second Star in Bulldogs 7-3 win over Americans

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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 19, 2012 7:41 PM EST reply actions

Hal Gill

5:24 TOI (all ES) +1 so far

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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Feb 19, 2012 7:47 PM EST reply actions

Scoring Chances

Why am I even bothering?

Oh well…
+3/-4 in the 2nd period at ES, nothing on ST
+5/-8 overall

Gomez is +3/-0 and bringing it, I think
Pleks is +2/-4 and probably annoyed that Randy chose to give him Weber and Campoli to close out the 2nd with a OZone faceoff that promptly ended in a clusterfuck and a goal
Desharnais and Eller still at +0/-2
Subban/Gorges +1/-2
Emelin +1/-0, Diaz +1/-3
Campoli +2/-5 Weber +3/-3
Kaberle +1/-1

is in over his head.

by Olivier on Feb 19, 2012 7:49 PM EST reply actions

Eller and Palushaj, who I felt at least were good in getting the puck deep and keeping it there: a combined 13 shifts.

Gomez has been bringing it. Weber and Campoli is a defensive disaster waiting to happen (it happened!).

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 7:53 PM EST up reply actions

What exactly is the “it” that gomez is bringing?

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 7:55 PM EST up reply actions

Good play? Scoring chances? Puck possession?

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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 19, 2012 7:56 PM EST up reply actions

Baseball? Apple pie? Mom?

/HDIA’d

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 7:57 PM EST up reply actions

Ah yes… So much more important than “goals”

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 7:58 PM EST up reply actions

You know why Gary Carter sucked?

Never led the league in RBI

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:00 PM EST up reply actions

I always felt he was a marginal catcher. Never brought enough offensively.

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 8:09 PM EST up reply actions

Oh, I don’t know…a willingness to battle for the puck. The ability to not lose said puck in less than a second…stuff like that.

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 8:00 PM EST up reply actions

Pfft.

Only 2 goals in 5 games. He’s a bum!

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:01 PM EST up reply actions

Broaden you sample, silly

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 8:02 PM EST up reply actions

Good point.

Only 684 points in 893 games. He’s a bum!

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Wait, so it is about points? Are those more important that corsi or fenwick?

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 8:08 PM EST up reply actions

Who the heck is that? I thought we were talking about Gomez.

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:09 PM EST up reply actions

Hahaha you move the goalposts and when someone happily agrees with your methodology and shows you to be foolish you move the goalposts again.

Keep going and it’s the banhammer, we don’t tolerate stupid trolling here.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 19, 2012 8:12 PM EST up reply actions

9 pts in 29 games… Trending downward. A far cry from his career average, no?

The guy is done

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 8:17 PM EST up reply actions

Broaden you sample, silly

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I love it. Classic. You guys all cherry pick the data you want. Then accuse the realists of being the cherry pickers.

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 8:19 PM EST up reply actions

Don’t lump me in with all these Habs fans.

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:21 PM EST up reply actions

Gomez is the great equalizer.

Welcome to the club, lumpy!

by Olivier on Feb 19, 2012 8:43 PM EST up reply actions

I’d argie that he has deteriorated into merely the adequate equalizer. He’s certainly not as good as Edward Woodward anymore.

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:46 PM EST up reply actions

You’re watching a different Gomez than I am.

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 8:02 PM EST up reply actions

You need better taste in music. Selena Gomez is hot, though.

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

He’s #11.

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 8:06 PM EST up reply actions

You take that back!

Jacques Plante was never in over his head!

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 7:54 PM EST up reply actions

Simpsons 500th episode just starting.

by HighFructoseCornSyrupSince72 on Feb 19, 2012 8:02 PM EST reply actions

BBDL! Nice team effort for a goal on the PP.

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 8:02 PM EST reply actions

The Simpson family has been banished from Springfield.

by HighFructoseCornSyrupSince72 on Feb 19, 2012 8:12 PM EST reply actions

Dang…well that’s probably that…

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 8:13 PM EST reply actions

Jim Corsi would have saved that.

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:13 PM EST up reply actions

Or Tom Fenwick…always liked that Corsi though.

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 8:14 PM EST up reply actions

Good lookin’ men, them

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 8:21 PM EST up reply actions

But zero goals in 89 career games for Corsi? He’s a bum!

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:22 PM EST up reply actions

Depends on what kind of role he was put in. 1st line centre? Absolutely a bum, then.

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 8:24 PM EST up reply actions

Okay, so now we can have a discussion.

At over $7MM, you find anyone here arguing that Gomez is good for the money. But as a 4th line centre, are you seriously saying that he doesn’t do his job?

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:25 PM EST up reply actions

*you WON’T find.

That was an unfortunate omission.

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:25 PM EST up reply actions

Is he montreal’s 4th line centre?

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 8:26 PM EST up reply actions

As a Sens fan, I’m no expert, but according to TOI, it sure looks like it to me.

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:27 PM EST up reply actions

1C Desharnais
2C Plekanec
3C Eller?

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:27 PM EST up reply actions

Not according to recent ice time, I don’t believe.

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 8:31 PM EST up reply actions

As far as I can tell, he still ranks 4th on the team at centre, for even-strength ice time. Even lately.

Now, should he be getting as much powerplay time as he has been getting? Maybe not.

But is Eller the third centre or not? I think he is, according to ice time and faceoffs taken.

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:36 PM EST up reply actions

Right now, Gomez is playing more and with two stable wingers while Eller get to play 7-8 minutes a night with one regular winger and a switch-a-roo on the LW. So I’d say for now Eller is 4th and Gomez 3rd.

But seeing RC isn’t bothering with matchups, it’s all even more relative.

by Olivier on Feb 19, 2012 8:55 PM EST up reply actions

You may be right, over the past two games. I’d prefer to see Eller get more time.

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:57 PM EST up reply actions

Plekanec

again

by HighFructoseCornSyrupSince72 on Feb 19, 2012 8:13 PM EST reply actions

Awful

by HighFructoseCornSyrupSince72 on Feb 19, 2012 8:14 PM EST reply actions

’night all, stuff to do…hope the Habs pull it off…

by westcoasthabs on Feb 19, 2012 8:16 PM EST reply actions

I love it when other team’s fans take care of trolls for us. Awesome.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 19, 2012 8:22 PM EST reply actions

Damn. Gomez had a shot from 5 feet. Data tells me that shot distance is the most important factor in scoring (and not skill). It is curious that he didn’t score.

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 8:23 PM EST reply actions

Do you know anything about hockey? Do you have eyes?

Yeah, I don't like the Bruins, but I HATE the Flyers!

by courtnall on Feb 19, 2012 8:24 PM EST up reply actions

From what I understand (which is admittedly not much), shot distance is a major factor. To miss goals from five feet is indeed not a good sign, but is it possible that your preconceived ideas about Gomez have given you a bit of a confirmation bias?

In other words, when you see Gomez miss from 5 feet, you remember it. But when you see him score from 10 feet, maybe you don’t remember it as much?

Look, some will say that he has been “snakebit”, but I will admit that his historical lack of finishing has been getting worse over the years. Is he now the worst forward for the money in the league? Maybe. But he’s effective enough in the role that he has now been cast in.

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:32 PM EST up reply actions

sigh the old standard: confirmation bias. It doesn’t really matter that I actually liked the Gomez deal when it happened and thought he was an effective player up until last year. All that matters is that now that his game has deteriorated, I suffer from confirmation bias.

I distinctly remember Gomez’ recent goals: after all, there have only been 3 in the last 375 days or so.

Tonight he was cast in the 2nd line centre role (2nd most ice time amongst centers). This has happened often enough that he isn’t what I’d call the 4th line centre. If he was my 4th line centre, I’d be fine with it (ignoring the salary). But I certainly wouldn’t be giving him 2nd pp minutes.

I’m not even anti-gomez. But I’m anti people inflating his worth based on some sort of possession data. Ultimately hockey comes down to creating goals. Gomez doesn’t do it any more. End of story.

That his contract is an albatross is just the final, bitter pill.

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 8:41 PM EST up reply actions

Well I’m certainly no member of the Corsiatti, and I don’t even agree with the importance some place on possession proxies, but I simply do not think of Gomez as a 2nd line centre.

Desharnais and Plekanec are clearly ahead on the depth chart.

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:44 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for mentioning desharnais; I wasn’t going to. There are several people on this site who – until recently, at least – argue that Gomez serves more ice time and better linemates than desharnais.

Maybe they’ve changed their tune. I dunno.

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 8:48 PM EST up reply actions

I too have read a lot of Desharnais hate on this site. I think it stems more from a hatred of Cunneyworth’s valuation of Desharnais over Plekanec, than from a desire to see Gomez overtaking Desharnais, but you;d have to ask them.

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:51 PM EST up reply actions

A lot of if came at the beginning of the season when he needed heavy sheltering to perform. He has since progressed by leaps and bounds. Not convinced he’d deal with the kind of assignation the way he does now without Cole, but still, he’s much better now and certainly is the main reason Gomez is most probably dealt this summer.

by Olivier on Feb 19, 2012 8:53 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t think Gomez is tradeable

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 8:58 PM EST up reply actions

Here’s the thing about desharnais: he actually scores goals. He also creates goals by getting assists. People on here seem to forget that the most important piece of data you can have going for you is goals. Goals win games.

Desharnais is getting better, Gomez is getting worse. Plex is still plex.

I haven’t spent a lot of time here, but “gomez is better than desharnais” is how it was over at habs inside out before the very small exodus of people over to this site.

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 8:56 PM EST up reply actions

There is a lot of context needed when looking at point totals. You can’t possibly compare the point totals of a player who plays weak competition with great linemates and starts all of his shifts in the ozone to a player who plays against top lines every night with crappy linemates and who starts all of his shifts in the dzone. You don’t need advanced stats to know this.

Corey Perry led the league in goals last year. Does that mean he’s better than Pavel Datsyuk? Hell no.

by Alexandre S on Feb 19, 2012 9:00 PM EST up reply actions

But doesn’t desharnais get tougher match ups now? And he still has 44 pts to gomez’ 9.

I’m not discounting the importance of matchups. But I’m re-emphasizing an important yet forgotten piece of data: goals. Goals win games.

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 9:05 PM EST up reply actions

Yes he does, but he also plays with the two best wingers on the team. My comment wasn’t specifically addressing Desharnais and Gomez, it was just to note that yes, goals are important, but without context they are close to meaningless, which is something that many people seem to ignore. I mean, the amount of people who were clamouring for Visnovsky to get a Norris nomination last year based on point totals alone was ridiculous.

by Alexandre S on Feb 19, 2012 9:09 PM EST up reply actions

Desharnais plays with the two best wingers because he deserves to.

You know what? Goals are the furthest thing from meaningless. I don’t care at all about matchups, possession, or any of the rest of this nonsense if my team outscores the other team.

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 9:12 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t know how to use his site very well, but there is a guy who shares your basic views, vis-a-vis the importance of finishing being at least as important as possession metrics.

He has butted heads with Gabe Desjardins often, over the emphasis placed by his Behind the Net site’s focus on Corsi.

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 9:14 PM EST up reply actions

Good to know.

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 9:16 PM EST up reply actions

I think the argument boils down to sample size, in that goals don’t present a reliable or predictable or repeatable enough set to work with. But me and math haven’t spoken to each other since high school, so I am the last person to say what is and isn’t statistically significant.

All I know is that 318 NHL players voted overwhelmingly that the Bell Centre is the best rink in the league, so clearly the r-squared something something of that poll is flawed. What kind of rink only allows itself to be filled to 100%, I ask you.

Scotiabank Place, FTW!

Take that, you stats nerds!

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 9:49 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah I don’t think meaningless was the appropriate word there, my bad. But now you are talking about team scoring, which is a different argument. It goes without saying that outscoring the other team is of the utmost importance, but good linematching can be a significant factor that leads to outscoring the other team. Would the Sedins score as much as they do if they didn’t have Malhotra and Kesler to do the heavy defensive work? Of course not. So you can’t credit all their points to them only, you have to give some of that credit to the guys who are doing the dirty work.

The problem with point totals alone is that they tell you little about the defensive side of the game. No hockey fan will tell you that defense doesn’t matter, and yet hordes of them use point totals as the only basis for evaluating a players’ worth.

Oh and if anyone deserves to be playing with the two best wingers, it’s Pleks. Always placed in the toughest role, always gives it his best, most likely played through an injury for half the year and still is right there with Desharnais in terms of point totals despite having Moen, Darche and Blunden as his wingers at various points throughout the season.

by Alexandre S on Feb 19, 2012 9:24 PM EST up reply actions

Oh, and to be fair, Gomez did miss 30 games. But ya, the comparison is still pretty brutal for him.

by Alexandre S on Feb 19, 2012 9:12 PM EST up reply actions

I had the habs at +6/-10 scoring chances overall at ES.

While Gomez was on the ice, they were +3/-0, which means they were +3/-7 while he was off. If timonice is to be beleived, they were +6 corsi with him on ice, -4 without.

That’s why I said he was bringing it tonight, the club was challenging the opposition when he was on the ice, stopped doing so when he wasn’t.

by Olivier on Feb 19, 2012 8:52 PM EST up reply actions

From what I understand, this means that while Gomez was on the ice, the team had three more scoring chances for, and an equal number of scoring chances against.

And while Gomez was on the bench, the team had three extra scoring chances over the Devils, compared to giving up 7 extra scoring chance against.

The implication being that Gomez helps keep the puck in the offensive zone, or at least helps keep the Devils from getting quality shooting locations.

Am I correct?

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 8:56 PM EST up reply actions

And this is all related to quality of opposition, as these folks will tell you.

by Electron_red on Feb 19, 2012 8:57 PM EST up reply actions

The thing I dislike the most about the Corsiatti, is their over-valuation of QoC, in shots form.

I wish there was better data available for competition, based upon GF/60 type of analysis.

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 9:00 PM EST up reply actions

A couple of points:

A) +3/-0 means the habs had 3 scoring chances for them and allowed none to the Devils while Gomez was on the ice. So they allowed 7 and generated 3 while Gomez wasn’t on the ice.

B) On Qualcomp: Gomez was getting tougher qualcomp than Desharnais before his injuries and easier since he came back. Gomez was, from what I can garner from watching the games, recording scoring chances and poring over stats, better than Desharnais at driving the play before he went down in november. Since he came back, Desharnais looks like he’s better.

C) BUT, and this is important IMNSHO: tonight, Gomez was by my eye and counts significantly better than Desharnais at driving the play. It’s the first time I’ve seen him do so since he came back. Maybe just a flash in the pan, but maybe he’s finally rounding into form.

D) Qualcomp is important, but so is Quality of Teammates. Cole is hurt now and it hurts Desharnais’s ability to drive the play, that seems clear to me. Pacioretty is progressing quickly, but isn’t (yet) at a level where he can consistently drive the play by himself. He’ll get there sooner than later, but still, this line may hit a rough patch in the next few games.

E) On quality of teammates: which defender you play with is hugely important when it comes to removing the opposition’s ability to challenge your net. Gorges/Subban are mighty fine; Diaz and Emelin are ok too as long as you don’t ask them to cover Ovechkin, Malkin or Kovalchuk. Campoli/Weber/Khaberle are horrid: as soon as they go on the ice without a member of the top-4, it ends up bad. Tonight, 2 of the 3 goals of the Devils came with two of the 3 stooges on the ice and each time one of them was actively shielding Price while failing to take their man. They suck balls, big time. Gomez and Plekanec were the only two C who took 2 shifts or more with those schmucks, and I beleive this may be a reason why Randy isn’t matching line: he must make sure he doesn’t leave Desharnais or Eller on the ice for too long with these timebombs.

Just an hypothesis, of course.

by Olivier on Feb 19, 2012 10:12 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for the clarifications.

Have you ever heard it said that QoT is a more significant or reliable (whatever that means) measure than QoC? If only I had the ability to regress to a time when I knew math ….

Anyway, I think the theory goes, that QoC numbers are more prone to variance, or less predictable or repeatable, or something …. If I keep repeating buzzwords, maybe I’ll trick plus or minus some people into thinking that I’m intelligent, 19 times out of 20

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Feb 19, 2012 10:22 PM EST up reply actions

Frankly, I don’t know. I always paid more attention to Qualcomp.

by Olivier on Feb 19, 2012 10:34 PM EST up reply actions

Actually, there is relatively little variance in QoC across players relative to the variance in individual talent or QoT. The reason is, everyone ends up playing against both good players and bad players since at home you can, to a certain degree, dictate good matchups for your players and on the road your opponent tries to dictate bad matchups for your players. As a result at home you can put your top line out against your opponents weaker lines, but on the road you opponent can put their best lines against your best or best defensive line against your best offensive line. Over enough time QoC converges across players because players end up playing against a wide cross section of opponents, some good, some not so good. Some players do play against tougher opponents on average but it isn’t that significant of a difference.

Compare that to QoT where Alex Burrows almost always plays with the Sedin’s. His QoT is significantly better than the average 3rd or 4th liner who usually only gets to play with 3rd or 4th liners and never plays with anyone the level of the Sedin’s. As a result there is a much greater disparity in QoT across players and QoT will have a much larger impact on a players stats than QoC.

Zone starts are very much over rated as well (in my opinion anyway), especially when considering their impact on goals (impact on shots/corsi is more significant).

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by HockeyAnalysis on Feb 20, 2012 1:14 AM EST up reply actions

I used Qualcomp as a tool to differentiate how different players on the habs performed last summer. To put it simply, you take the qualcomp rating of every player Plekanec played against last season and use Corsi Events as a proxy for icetime, you then divide them in 5 buckets, from weakest to strongest.

Plekanec and Gomez were the ones with the most events against the GroupeE bucket, the players with highest qualcomp. Guys on the bottom of the roster had most of their events against bottom buckets.

Plekanec had a 53% scoring chances ratio against the toughest bucket and 74% against the easiest. Gomez was at 56% against the easiest, 47% against the toughest. Desharnais actually had a high chacnes % against the toughest bucket, but only 140 corsi events (to Pleks near-600), so… And I wasn’t accounting with the quality of defender, an obvious factor.

Qualcomp, from what I can tell, certainly has a significant impact on a player’s performance. It’s just that, in the shape it has on behindthenet, it doesn’t necessarily shows, especially if the payer’s role changes along the season.

by Olivier on Feb 20, 2012 1:45 AM EST up reply actions