Habs Failing for Nail Campaign Will Likely Fail
by Bruce Peter on Feb 15, 2012 11:38 AM EST
in Opinions and other Habs links
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It's been a tough season. At times, it's seemed too long, but right about now, for those of us fans that still want to win, it's looking awfully short. We're just about at the 3/4 mark, the trade deadline is less than two weeks away, and the team still has played more games than they have accumulated points, which is a very bad sign this far into the year. Some fans have been on a 'Fail for Nail' mission for... well, we first jokingly talked about that in game threads around here back in October right before the Parry Pearn firing. The team might have held a playoff spot after 2 games this year when they were 1-1 and had a positive goal differential, and I think I remember an hour or two in November where they had briefly claimed a spot, although that changed by the end of the night. The playoffs have almost always been just out of reach.
While I can understand the desire to get the best possible result from a dreadful year, this team is simply too good to fail that terribly. What is amazing is that they're in this position at all, to be frank, that we can even talk about the potential of winning the draft lottery to move up to the #1 overall seed. One of the easiest eyeball measures I use when looking at the standings to try and figure out who might be over or underachieving is goal differential: the best teams generally post the best differential. Losing or winning games by one goal can happen for any number of reasons, and in hockey, the shootout increases the randomness of the win total.
It's certainly possible that the Habs' non-sensical results continue, but it doesn't look good for finishing in the bottom five... the competition is just too strong (well, really, too weak):
|
Rank |
Team |
Pts/82 |
GD |
SOD |
Adj GD |
Adj GD Rank |
|
30 |
58 |
-53 |
-2 |
-51 |
30 |
|
|
29 |
73 |
-18 |
-1 |
-17 |
22 |
|
|
28 |
76 |
-28 |
-4 |
-24 |
T-25 |
|
|
27 |
79 |
-25 |
2 |
-27 |
T-27 |
|
|
26 |
79 |
-2 |
-5 |
3 |
11 |
|
|
25 |
79 |
-34 |
-1 |
-33 |
29 |
|
|
24 |
81 |
-18 |
-3 |
-15 |
T-20 |
|
|
23 |
82 |
-26 |
1 |
-27 |
T-27 |
|
|
22 |
82 |
-24 |
E |
-24 |
T-25 |
|
|
21 |
85 |
-20 |
-1 |
-19 |
T-23 |
|
|
20 |
86 |
-13 |
6 |
-19 |
T-23 |
|
|
19 |
86 |
-14 |
1 |
-15 |
T-20 |
|
|
18 |
89 |
-13 |
-1 |
-12 |
19 |
|
|
17 |
89 |
1 |
E |
1 |
T-13 |
A couple of things here: For teams with a projected point total that is tied, I've given the higher ranking to the team with the most current ROWs, the first tiebreaker in the NHL standings. Since Tampa has 22 ROWs to Montreal's 21 and Buffalo's 19, the Canadiens finish in the 5th seed for the lotto based on points projections. The Capitals and Maple Leafs are projected to tie with 89 points for the final playoff spot, but the Capitals currently have more ROWs, so they'd get that last spot. For goal differential, I've ignored tiebreakers, so there's a number of tied results.
The Canadiens being in 11th in real time goal differential and 26th in the projected standings is completely ridiculous. To show you how ridiculous: the second biggest gap between the two rankings are the Oilers, who have a 7 placement gap. 19 of the 30 NHL teams are within three placements in real time GD rank as their actual projected standing (and 25 of 30 are within 4 spots). The Canadiens placement amongst the worst teams in the NHL is completely illogical. The other teams around them are all worse at hockey than they are, and five teams in a playoff spot are worse at the whole score more goals than the other guy thing than they are. Based on that +/- 4 spots method, the Habs should typically be ranked anywhere from 7th to 15th in the NHL... and in the playoffs, or at least in the playoff bubble with Washington, Florida, Ottawa, and Toronto.
In short, there is a strong correlation between goal differential and winning. Of course, being good in the shootout is somewhat important, and the Habs have the worst shootout differential in the NHL at -5 (Carolina is 0-4 in the shootout so the Habs aren't worst by Win%), which accounts for some of that difference, but the Canadiens are still 15th when you include shootouts, and would still be leading the league in that gap without that horrid gimmick record.
This team isn't elite this year, and acquiring an elite talent via the draft would be a great addition in the next couple of years. We've got to look at ways to score a noticeable amoung of goals more than the other teams to get to that elite mark, so an influx of talent in any form is needed. But the Habs are in tough to keep down with the teams around them... the other teams are just too good at being bad.
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This dovetails nicely with coppernblue’s clear victory standings, which measures a team’s record in games decided by by two goals or more not counting empty-netters. Montreal are 12-11 by that measure, which is not only abovewater but fifth in the East. It’s all those one-goal games that are killing them. They are almost certainly significantly better than several teams that will make the playoffs.
Or maybe they’re just not clutch enough. ;)
It goes on, though. Montreal has the 7th-best 5-on-5 goal ratio in the league (they’ve been top-10 all year). For all their PP trouble, they’re over 100% combined special teams efficiency.
Although their score-tied Fenwick is pretty awful.
It’s absolutely ridiculous that for the season they are 30 and 36 goals better than the teams they are tied with (Buffalo and Tampa). We haven’t even hit the 60 game mark, so that’s over half a goal per game that they are better than these guys at.
Montreal is 3 on special teams, including shorthanded goals for/against. They are even at even strength (2 for 5 on 5, -2 for 4 on 4).
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When will the RC nightmare be over? Please let it only last for another 25 games.
If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33
Who knows?
Pleks wasn’t at practice this morning. Neither was Cole. If those two get hurt, who will he give icetime to, absent Blunden and Nokelainen?
Still can’t beleive he threw Gomez under the bus like that at his press conference.
and apparently Kostitsyn said, “I haven’t asked for a trade yet but maybe it could happen soon. I want to play”.
I wish Randy had been fired during the Subban/Eller scratch game like I wanted him to be.
Honestly, how much worse could Joidin possibly be at this point?
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He couldn’t be. He might coach like a junior coach and that would probably be better.
Dunking the season is one thing, it’s almost certainly already lost, but so far Randy has managed to alienate Cammalleri and Kostitsyn for sure, probably Gomez too, and I can’t imagine Eller is too happy with him either.
It’s stopped being just about bad tactics and personnel usage.
Eller is probably fine, its the ups and downs of a young player even if they are extreme. He’s probably happy to get the big opportunities when he does get them.
Subban might feel he’s being held back.
I don’t know how Plekanec is feeling about Randy, to be honest (well, of course I don’t, but I don’t know if he’d be happy). He’s gotten the ups and downs treatment at times, too. He’s on the up now, but…
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Alienating players when you are an interim coach just seems stupid to me. The scary thing is, fans think he is going in and shaking up the status quo of this crappy team. That what he is doing is somehow admirable.
Judging by the Cammalleri deal I expect that Kostitsyn will be sent home mid second period tonight.
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How much status quo needs to be shaken up? Two coaches, the star UFA forward signing, changes on D, benching of two prominent young players, calling out players in the media…
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I don’t like to traffic in rumour, but I have it from a good source that Plekanec really doesn’t like Cunneyworth either.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 15, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Put a guy into a job that requires he demand a lot of respect from his players, immediately undermine his tenure by making it all but clear he won’t be keeping that job beyond the offseason, and you get what you deserve.
Downtown, Lameduckville.
I’m not saying handling it differently would have made RC a far better coach, but when you put an inexperienced manager in place and then subsequently pull the rug out from underneath him, you’re bloody well shoving him right behind the eight ball from the get-go.
So, far be it from me to be surprised players who aren’t happy with their roles can smell blood in the water and aren’t afraid to openly, or otherwise, challenge RC & Co.‘s authority. What’s the downside? They all know he’s gone.
Every decision he makes, every maneuvre, everything he says is handicapped.
And pro hockey is 50%+ inside the players’ heads. It’s a game of inches.
Don’t know if it’s ownership, the executive suite, or both, but this is a blatantly obvious case of sloppy management. This is not a broad indictment of Molson or PG, just huge disappointment that they earned themselves an F in Human Resource Management 101 on this one.
And it’s infuriating.
Lame duck or not, benching veterans and embarrassing them is ridiculous.
Kostitsyn and Gomez have earned enough respect to not be made examples of like that. It is almost a nightly occurrence to look for who is in the doghouse and who is being benched based on a turnovers or bad penalties.
The my way or the highway coaching act is a relic. You can’t treat modern athletes who know they will be around long after you are like that.
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The situation RC has been put in by his GM has nothing to do with loopy personnel management or simplisitic tactics. As for throwing players under the bus, I’ve always been told it’s a good way to lose your players’ respect rather than gain it.
RC may have been put in a bad situation and perhaps that should garner some sympathy, but it shouldn’t preclude scrutiny of his work.
I hardly suggested it should preclude scrutiny of his work.
Please.
I am saying I am not in any way surprised this is happening.
Like it or not, both of you cannot just off-hand separate what RC is doing from the position he was initially put in. His authority was immediately handicapped. This reality is integral to how his tenure has played out, as much as any other consideration including coaching style.
And now he’s overcompensating for his lack of authority. And it shows.
The players are not stupid; the guy’s a temp.
It did not have to be that way. Not at all.
I definitely understand this point of view, and it was something I brought up when it happened… how much can players really get behind about a guy they know won’t be back? These types of blow-ups are definitely the result of the stupid decision to fire Martin in the first place, who kept an order about the team that went largely unquestioned by the players.
It’s one thing to decide the team isn’t good enough anymore, but to poison the well by bringing in a guy that a lot of the players don’t know a lot about who you say will be gone by year’s end to lead them is ridiculous. It was one thing when it was Gainey stepping down to coach…. he still wrote the guy’s cheques. Cunneyworth is a tourist to them.
And now Gauthier has to make decisions with the well poisoned, and values of the players he might deal diminishing.
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Well, there was always the chance for the “they rallied around their embattled coach” narrative, which would’ve happened if the Habs had done well. In fact, it was brought up by the crew early during the Carolina game.
Not one person can point to an instance where the team gave up on Martin to me when I’ve asked for it. And yet we clearly have several very public displays of the players not liking the Randys.
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I think that the impact of the interim tango on RC’s tenure is being seriously overstated. I think the effect is small, and it is in any case far from being the cause of this fiasco.
I’m not saying that PG’s interim tango was not a problem, but the real issue is that PG threw RC into the fire when he clearly wasn’t ready and the guy is simply in over his head. And he would’ve been in over his head with a guaranteed four-year contract too.
Based on my own experiences, I’ll just have to respectfully disagree with the notion that RC’s particular situation is not heavily tainted by his temp status.
This removes the onus from him though.
If he pulled off what Lemaire did last season how do the Habs relieve him of duty? Thanks for saving our season. Thanks for showing you are an incredible coach, but we are going to fire you now.
Low expectation can lead to acceptance of inferior results just like high expectation can get you fired for a .500 record. The formula was there for him to take a pretty good team and be praised solely for the turnaround. Instead he fucked it up royally and likely assured no second NHL offer.
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Again, as I mentioned in my other response, I’m not sure why everything has to be shoved to one extreme or the other. This doesn’t remove the onus from him and I’m not suggesting as much.
I am challenging the idea that whatever is going down is entirely of his own doing.
Absent unmitigated success, he was basically fucked from the get-go. I discussed that notion back when he was first given the head coaching position.
Every single NHL coach has players that dislike him, players that are indifferent, and players that like him. RC’s vulnerability to those who dislike him has been rendered palpable by the fact his authority was undermined at the outset.
This is what really differentiates his situation from other coaches around the league.
Good discussion. Gotta head off to catch a bite at Hurley’s ahead of the game.
Eff the Br00nz, the effin’ efffers.
by JD__ on Feb 15, 2012 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec’d for the ending as much as the post itself.
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I am not seeing how ‘he fucked it up royally’. I guess I will wait to see how the rest of this season turns out to judge. Let the ends justify the means.
Gomez and Kostitsyn are not giving a good effort night in and out. All I see RC saying is that the team won four games straight playing the way he wants them to play, he didn’t get that from those two on Monday and he is not accepting it. I like both those players, but if this little push back from RC is enough to send them into a pit of dispair, tough.
Don’t understand. Tangible evidence on what? Gomez and Kostitsyn are not giving a good effort night in and out?
That effort is even the reason for benchings would be a start. That clearly wasn’t the case with Subban and Eller.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 15, 2012 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
RC said the decisions he took regarding ice-time were because of his estimation of the aforementioned players’ effort. You want to ignore that fine, but you’re going to have to find some evidence to support your hypothesis that RC’s decisions were not motivated by his estimations of their effort, because right now the only data point we have is RC’s statement— and it supports your null hypothesis.
Perhaps you think you’ve presented said evidence already with your analogy to the benching of Subban and Eller; I’m open to convincing here— did RC say he benched them because of effort and did then evidence come to light that this was a lie?
Or putting them in situations they can’t succeed.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 15, 2012 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
Heading out tonight to watch the game at Hurley’s with some EOTP regulars so I won’t be here for the game thread.
Here’s hoping for a Pacioretty hat trick while Chara’s on the ice.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 15, 2012 4:56 PM EST reply actions
Let's be honest folks
When comparing Habs coaches, only one thing really matters: beating the god damn Bruins
Martin’s record: 11-4
Cunneyworth’s record: 0-2
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 15, 2012 5:02 PM EST reply actions
RC and the Habs
Let’s face it, Montreal is a very sick club. How many times have they blown a third period lead? A good coach knows that when a team is beating itself, sometimes it makes sense for the coach to establish himself as the focal point – set the bar and then don’t back down. RC has established a tone – play all out or sit – same rule for the veterans and the rookies. I think it’s great. I also think if anyone can get Gomez and Kostytsin playing to their full potential its RC. I hope the Habs pay him an all inclusive trip to France to learn the language in the offseason, so we can see him back next year. That’s what a ‘class’ organization would do. By the way I think Gomez’ reaction (it’s all part of hockey) was very professional.
I also think if anyone can get Gomez and Kostytsin playing to their full potential its RC
What on earth has happened to make this a reasonable statement?
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by Andrew Berkshire on Feb 15, 2012 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
Can’t say yet he’s the guy to get them to their full potential, but let’s see how this ploy plays out.
Gomez being called out in a practice is perfectly OK IMO and people are reacting like the gentle flower of his confidence has just been jack-booted. While Gomez is a lot better than many give him credit for and he’s not as good as he can be or should be for what he’s being paid – all I see is RC telling it like he thinks it is after 2 years of turning our heads and hoping for the best. As a former player, he probably sees a lot we don’t and I suspect Gomez will be better for it.
Veterans and rookies should NOT be treated the same. The amount of rope that a veteran gets should far outstretch the amount a first year player receives.
Benching Gomez while continuing to play Kaberle would be absolutely absurd.
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Agree that veterans and rookies don’t get the same length of rope, but Gomez has been given immeasurably more rope than any rookie on the team. RC is just tightening the rope to see what happens. Experiment still in early stage.
Agree that benching Gomez and playing Kaberle is absurd unless you feel the issue with Gomez is motivation and the issue with Kaberle is capability. Bencing addresses attitude not capability.
I've subbed... a lot
Anybody who’s been a substitute teacher knows that the job is all about babysitting— if you’re good, and random chance smiles on you, you can get results. Most of the time however, you’re just marking time and making sure nobody gets hurt and nothing gets broken.
For this reason I’m amenable to the argument JD is making here.
Now, has RC used ‘the process’ that the majority of bloggers here espouse? Nope. Have RC’s decisions cost the team games? Well, I’m not Lewis nor Stalnaker, but counterfactual conditionals are tricky things. Looking at the Habs record this season, and in particular the work Mathman has done to show the Habs ability to lose games of the one goal variety, I’m not overly confident that games where RC follows ‘the process’ in the closest possible world are those where the Habs win those games.
As for the ‘embarrassing veterans’/poor treatment of players ’who’ve earned respect… I would like some tangible evidence of that too then. What does this earned respect look like?
Afterall, even if nothing gets done, the sub’s job is to be in charge— it’s not to delegate that authority to the students.
to clarify
arguments for treating players like adults/professionals or respecting veterans ‘more’ seem to involve privileging these players (more respect, more playing time, more etc.) but with no concomitant increase in these players’ responsibilities for results/accountability.
It just seems a weird situation where adults/professionals/veterans/best players are never to be chastised/punished.
If anything, you’d expect more leniency for students and less for adult professionals.
Benching a rookie creates zero impact in the dressing room. Benching a guy who has been in the NHL for a decade and has played 800 games can have other consequences. Everybody looks at a dressing room in simplistic terms. It isn’t. Gomez doesn’t exist in that dressing room in a vacuum. He has forged relationships. You wound him, you don’t know who else suffers that wound, you don’t know who else can be affected by it.
You can’t compare it to a school room because all the students are there to learn. A school room is full of peers who are generally on equal footing, you don’t have some students on their first day and some students who have already earned their doctorate and are earning 5 times more than the teacher with better job stability.
It isn’t about them not being punished. It is about them being embarrassed. Big difference. RC is showing them who is boss, it is a weak move from a guy who isn’t the boss and a guy who will be out of the NHL in 24 games.
If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33
Well, generally, they can be expected to act professionally and require less discipline (of course, depending on the age of the students we’re talking about here — adult university students wouldn’t require “babysitting”). Kid students generally aren’t too keen about being in school. Pro hockey players tend to like winning.
Transpose this to the typical office workspace; how much is the manager required to do constant discipline? If the manager takes a vacation and there is an interim manager in place, how much does the interim guy need to “babysit” and just make sure “nobody gets hurt and nothing gets broken”?
Adult professionnals can pursue organizational goals without constant supervision and discipline. The interim guy may not be able to get optimal performance, but at the same time his underlings have no implicit incentive to actively undermine him and doing so, undermine the common goal, so long as they believe the interim manager isn’t being a detriment to said common goal.
The Human Factor…. realistically, the sports arenas are filled with prima donnas and warriors. A coaches job is to amend the warriors will to fight and to massage the ego of the prima donna. I can’t honestly know who’s who… though players in the past that appeared to be PMs Sergie Kostitsyn and Grabo… don’t make it on looks and ‘what I deserve’ in Montreal.
The tough guy act that RC has, is all that he has. There wasn’t time for relationship/team building with him until what 5 games after he came in? It’d be like you’re working under a new boss who doesn’t speak to you for 2 weeks then comes at you for not doing what he expected… fair?? Well from the perspective of the boss, the employees should know the expectation, and from the employee maybe they feel there should have been a memo?
But hard place or incompetent, whatever the case the Habs are up the creek with RC with the reigns.
I think things would have been different for RC and the Habs had PG stayed the course this year and gave a plan to RC. “Hey RC we have a lot of talent, some of it misdirected right now, we need a team effort. Tow the line and get the most out of what we have and don’t mess with their heads, it won’t be pretty the rest of the year if you do”. To say that RC’s benchings and demanding more effort is contradictory to gaining respect.. I don’t really buy it. If RC had come in fresh from the onset of training camp, spent time with the guys to get to knwo them, for the group to then move from a place of common understanding we might have seen a different season. But.. speculation killed the cat. So. Here we are. Not many games left and between a rock and a hard place.
by Cruisin4aBruisin on Feb 15, 2012 6:52 PM EST reply actions
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