Habs First Half Review

These two guys are way more important to the Montreal Canadiens than people think. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

It is fascinating how much things can change in 20 games. After the first quarter of the season the Montreal Canadiens were primed to be a top 10 team in the NHL if they could get just a bit of luck on the powerplay and if Price could play like himself. Well they never did get that powerplay luck, and to make matters worse the team suffered a myriad of devastating injuries to key players.

This all resulted in a record of 18-20-4 over 42 games, firing an assistant coach early in the year, a trade to acquire a powerplay quarterback in Kaberle, firing of a head coach who had managed to keep the team near even despite only 4 games where the Canadiens iced a roster over the salary floor, and right after the 42 game mark; a panic trade giving up a sniper and good 1st line player for an older, less effective player in Rene Bourque and a second round pick in 2013. It has been a tumultuous time to be a Habs fan.

Never the less, Chris Boyle and I will be continuing our in depth breakdown of every Habs player to play significant time for the CH this season. In fact, we're going to up the ante this time and include five more statistics to add increased context into the evaluations of each player, while contrasting their play with the first quarter.

Last time there were some complaints and confusion about the grades given being too high for players who hadn't produced much (Gomez and Cammalleri in particular were mentioned), but you have to remember that results is not what we're analyzing here. We're looking at how the players are playing overall, everywhere on the ice. This is more important than goals and assists, and sometimes players just don't get rewarded for good play. Call it luck or random variance or unrepeatable performance, but over the amount of time we're covering, results aren't a good indicator of quality of play.

Before I explain the new statistics we'll be bringing in, I recommend you read my primer on possession and random variance based stats, as well as the explanations of the rest of the rest of the statistics we used previously in the first quarter review if you're new to advanced hockey analytics.

The five new statistics we will be using will give us both context for how difficult a player's job is, as well as measure a couple of intangible qualities.

The first two new statistics deal with quality of competition:

Traditional (or at least as traditional as microstats get) quality of competition stats are based on the plus/minus (+/-) scores of the opposing team's players. The calculation begins by creating a +/- score for each opposing player relevant to his own team. For example, if Player A on the other team has a +/- of -3, but his team has a +/- of -14 when Player A is off the ice, his relative +/- is +11 better than the team average. Once all the relative +/- scores are tabulated for the opposing team's players, the Qualcomp for any player on your team is the weighted average of all the relative +/- he faces during games, the weighting being based on what proportion of his total TOI is spent against each opposing player. This resulting metric is an indication of how the player on your team is being deployed by the coaching staff; i.e., players with high Qualcomp scores are generally playing against other teams' best players every night.

However even with relative plus/minus scores there are limitations to that specific stat. A player can have a poor relative plus/minus rating due to bad luck. So in order to add more context to matchups, Relative Corsi Quality of Competition was created. The statistic works in the same manner, calculating the the opponent's Corsi score relative to their own teammates, and averaging out all the opponents a player plays against. This way you can see how difficult a player's job is from a possession standpoint.

The next two statistics are very simple; zone starts are all about usage by the coaching staff, while zone finishes are all about driving the play. If a player starts in the offensive zone more than 50% of the time, they are either being used to create offense or being sheltered defensively. If a player finishes in the offensive zone more often than he starts there, chances are he is driving the play up the ice in a positive manner.

Lastly we'll be looking at penalty ratios to get a feel for how disciplined each player is, combined with how effective they are at drawing penalties. We'll do this by dividing the number of penalties a player takes by the number he draws per 60 minutes of ice time. This will tell us how many penalties that player will take per 60 minutes before drawing a penalty for his own team. The lower the number in this category, the better.

As with the last review, all statistics are at even strength only, aside from risk/reward which includes all situations.

Legend

Shots % of shots in favour of the team while on ice
Fenwick % of shots and misses in favour of the team while on ice
Corsi % of shots, misses and blocked shots in favour of the team while on ice
On Ice SH% Team shooting % while on ice
On Ice SV% Goaltender save % while on ice
PDO Combination of shooting and save %, trends to 1000, "Luck Quotient"
Scoring Chances For Team scoring chances while on ice
Scoring Chances Against Scoring chances against the team while on ice
True +/- Plus/Minus excluding shorthanded and empty net situations
Risk/Reward Rating Measure of successful to unsuccessful plays made by a player
QCOMP Weighted average of opponent's relative plus/minus
CRQC Weighted average of opponent's Relative Corsi number
Off Zone Starts % of a player's shifts that start in the offensive zone
Off Zone Finish % of a player's shifts that end in the offensive zone
Penalty Ratio How many penalties a player takes for each one they draw

All statistics used are gathered from timeonice.com, behindthenet.ca, NHL.com, enattendantlesnordiques.blogspot.com, and boucherscouting.com

CENTERS

Plekanec_2_medium

Tomas Plekanec has a rough second quarter. He has been in a downward spiral in possession from nearly the exact cut off point of our review of the first quarter. He's begun to even out and climb closer to a positive Fenwick as his zone starts have trended more to the offensive zone, but he's still playing far below his talent level. Plekanec was massively outchanced at even strength over the second quarter, which is bound to happen with such a huge drop in possession. He still has a tough job with low offensive zone starts and high quality of competition, but that's par for the course with Plekanec. Tomas has also had trouble drawing penalties this season, Despite his struggles Plekanec is still driving the play forward as indicated by his zone finishes, but with how he's struggling with possession he could use some help. The Canadiens organization is clearly hoping Rene Bourque will be that help. There's been speculation that Plekanec is suffering from a nagging injury, but when it comes down to it he just didn't get the job done over the second quarter.

First Quarter Grade: 9/10

First Half Grade: 5/10

Desharnais_2_medium

David Desharnais was one of the very few players to actually show improvement in his game and results over the past 20 games. We were understated about Desharnais in the last review because he was facing very weak competition with very favourable zone starts, along with being carried by the team's two best wingers. His possession numbers have gone down just like the rest of the team, but he's one of the only players to stay positive, and his line has been getting more responsibility under Cunneyworth as evidenced by Desharnais' positive Relative Corsi Quality of Competition score. He is likely never going to be a great two way center or a possession beast, but being able to hold his own against the top half of other team's lineups is a big step for David. While Desharnais definitely had a lucky second quarter it is tough to say he and his line didn't earn it as they outchanced the competition conclusively at even strength. Desharnais is still the weakest performer on his line, but with those wingers it is nothing to be ashamed of. Another huge benefit to his game is his ability to draw penalties, specifically he draws 3 times more penalties than he takes. If the Canadiens had a powerplay worth its weight this would be huge. He is a bargain for 850K this year and next.

First Quarter Grade: 6/10

First Half Grade: 7/10

Eller_2_medium

Lars Eller has taken massive strides forward in his development both offensively and defensively, but has suffered on the stats end from being used as a 1st line shutdown center too soon by Randy Cunneyworth. It has been an odd 20 games for Eller. The combination of natural growth with being forced into situations he can't handle has yielded amazing results (Eller's 4 goal game against Winnipeg) and disastrous moves (multiple period long benchings and a healthy scratch). Because of this extreme increase in quality of competition, Eller has gone from startlingly good possession to regularly being outplayed by opponents he isn't ready to face. Despite this, Eller has managed to limit scoring chances against better than Plekanec did over this time, and he's had a fair share of luck to boot. Eller is also making strides in his discipline, as he's only barely taking more penalties than he draws, a stark contrast to the beginning of his career. A nice sign of Eller's increased level of play is his improved risk/reward rating. He was one of very few players to post an improvement.

First Quarter Grade: 7/10

First Half Grade: 7/10

Gomez_2_medium

Scott Gomez didn't get a chance to play during these 20 games, so there's not much to say here. The team continues to flounder without him and has looked much better since his return in game 44. Provided that Gomez can stay healthy, it will be interesting to see how he can impact the team over a sustained period. Gomez is still worth including to look at how he fares in the 5 new stats we are including here. Gomez played against the weakest competition and got the most favourable zone starts of all the Canadiens top 9 players over the first half. For some reason however, his presence on the roster has a huge positive impact overall, as illustrated by Cam Charron in January.

First Quarter Grade: 7/10

First Half Grade: 7/10

Nokelainen_2_medium

Petteri Nokelainen couldn't really go anywhere but up, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't credit his improved play. Nokelainen marginally improved his possession numbers, which lead to an increase in scoring opportunities. He's still pretty unlucky, and still a net negative, but his play did improve overall. While Nokelainen's overall risk/reward took a dive, his ability to move the play up the ice increased greatly at even strength. He also draws twice the penalties that he takes, which is never bad.

First Quarter Grade: 3/10

First Half Grade: 4/10

LEFT WINGERS

Pacioretty_2_medium

Max Pacioretty struggled at times in the second quarter, dealing with a suspension and a long scoreless streak, but his statistics are still very promising despite the his line being put up against stronger competition as the year goes on. Pacioretty's possession took a hit, but remains impressive. He was really unlucky in the second quarter but has begun some regression to the mean lately. The real story for Pacioretty in the second quarter is scoring chance suppression. After playing a high risk game over the first quarter (86 scoring chances against) Pacioretty has tightened up defensively and was on for just 59 scoring chances against. That he did this while his responsibilities increased is outstanding. Pacioretty also doesn't benefit from the same offensive zone starts that his linemates do, and drives the play up ice at a high rate. If Pacioretty's possession and play wasn't enough, the fact that he draws nearly twice as many penalties as he takes is a cherry on top.

First Quarter Grade: 9/10

Second Quarter Grade: 9/10

Cammalleri_2_medium

Mike Cammalleri struggled in the 2nd quarter, there's no two ways about it. Along with Plekanec he bled scoring chances against like a sieve. After getting incredible bad shooting luck over the first quarter despite excellent play, Cammalleri got by with poor play and some good luck, chiefly through fantastic goaltending. It seems like in order to continue to manufacture offense on a struggling team, Cammalleri let his defensive game go by the way side. He dealt with tougher competition than Pacioretty, but had the advantage of a better zone start ratio. Sadly even when Cammalleri did score, he never managed to get out of his new coach's doghouse. One aspect of Cammalleri's game that never stopped working was his ability to draw penalties. He drew 3 times more penalties than he took over his last half season with the Montreal Canadiens. There has been a lot of complaining about Cammalleri before and after his trade away from the team, but a clue to his struggles is in his usage. While his zone starts make sense considering the type of player he is, putting him up against the toughest possession players of any Montreal forward makes no sense at all. There is just no way a one-dimensional sniper should have a higher Corsi Relative Qualcomp score than Subban. It's poor coaching.

First Quarter Grade: 8/10

First Half Grade: 5/10

Moen_2_medium

Travis Moen is still ideally an elite fourth liner or a good third liner. What doesn't make sense is that since Cunneyworth has taken over his third line minutes have been against first line competition. While Moen is capable of doing fill in duty on the top two lines, he's not equipped to play that role indefinitely on a successful team. Moen has taken hits to all his metrics and was outchanced by a wide margin in the second quarter when faced with this increased role. To Moen's credit however, he hasn't allowed opponents to hem him in his own zone, and his penalty killing is still at an elite level.

First Quarter Grade: 7/10

First Half Grade: 6/10

Darche_2_medium

Mathieu Darche continues to be the best of a very poor group of fourth liners. Don't misinterpret that though, because Darche is actually the lone player among them that is a serviceable NHL player. He's by no means a top 9 player who can be counted upon for scoring, but he can play against the bottoms of other team's lineups. Playing with terrible teammates in Nokelainen and Blunden, or someone not suited to be a forward like Weber, has really hurt Darche's production this season. Darche has been outchanced at even strength, but with how much stronger his numbers are than the players he's been playing with, it is very difficult to lay anything at his feet. His strong risk/reward rating also gives him credibility going forward.

First Quarter Grade: 6/10

First Half Grade: 6/10

RIGHT WINGERS

Cole_2_medium

Erik Cole has been a beast for the entire season, and in many ways he is the offensive engine of the team. As you can see from the graphic, Cole has been remarkably consistent in his Fenwick numbers. Like Pacioretty and Desharnais, Cole has benefited greatly from playing against weaker competition, but that doesn't take away from his ability to drive the play up ice and play excellent puck possession hockey. Aside from Gomez, who didn't play the second quarter, Cole remains the Canadiens best possession forward. Cole still has an underwhelming risk/reward rating, but as with his first quarter this seems to be an anomaly that starkly contrasts the rest of his play. While Cole was on the ice the Canadiens continued to outchance the competition by a wide margin. Cole has also generated nearly twice the powerplays for the Habs as he's given to the other team with his own penalties. His speed charging to from the right side consistently confounds opposing defenses.

First Quarter Grade: 9/10

First Half Grade: 9/10

Gionta_2_medium

Brian Gionta didn't get a chance to play too much, struggling with injury and then getting injured less that 2 games after returning. The captain is likely done for the year just as he began to show signs of serious improvement. Like all Habs players in the second quarter, Gionta's stats took a bit of a dive in all categories. Put on Plekanec's line after returning from injury he continued to bleed scoring chances against. It's an odd situation with Gionta because we were very harsh with him last time, and even though it looks like he's playing even worse, but relative to his teammates he actually improved. Adding in context and we also see that he's playing the second toughest minutes on the team next to Plekanec, and driving the play up the ice more effectively than the rest of his linemates. We also see that Gionta, despite being undisciplined in comparison to recent years, is still drawing more penalties per 60 minutes than he's taking. All signs point that while Gionta probably isn't ideal for the tough minutes Plekanec gets, he still has a lot of value and isn't in decline. Going forward this is important to recognize as Gionta is unlikely to play again this year and the organization must recognize which players they should retain.

First Quarter Grade: 5/10

First Half Grade: 6//10

Kostitsyn_2_medium

Andrei Kostitsyn continues to put together long stretches of sub par to acceptable play book-ended by magnificent performances. Somehow Andrei has maintained his magnificent luck, due entirely to an absurd 15% on ice shooting percentage (more than double what Plekanec has had). While he took huge hits to his stats all around, he's only slightly below even on Fenwick and still has his head above water in overall scoring chances. Kostitsyn's risk/reward is still low but that may be because he, like Moen, isn't sheltered at all. Both would likely improve playing against 3rd line competition in place of Pacioretty and Cole, and Kostitsyn especially should be getting some more favourable zone starts to take advantage of his skills. As it stands, he's losing ground on possession and the opposition is driving the play into the Habs zone while he's on the ice. He could benefit from a change in usage.

First Quarter Grade: 9/10

First Half Grade: 7/10

Leblanc_2_medium

Louis Leblanc may never be the top line player the fans want out of their favourite Francophone prospect, but he is an NHL caliber player. He looked every bit the solid 3rd line forward as he pushed the organization into keeping him up longer than they originally intended. We're dealing with a comparatively small sample size with Louis here, but in a sheltered 3rd line role he has acquitted himself as well as could be hoped for a rookie AHLer at 20. As with nearly everyone on the team, he's below par in possession, but he's managed to get more of his shots through than the opposition which is rare for an AHLer. He's also managed to stay even on scoring chances at even strength, which is a solid sign of how good he can be in the future. Undeniably Leblanc has been lucky with great goaltending and solid on ice shooting, but his performance so far is nonetheless impressive. Though not recorded for this review, Leblanc's overall Relative Corsi score is superior to Desharnais.

First Quarter Grade: N/A

First Half Grade: 7/10

Blunden_2_medium

Mike Blunden was terrible when he was first called up to the Habs. He was easily the worst player to don the CH this season. However he's turned it around with his second call up, and while not ever looking like he's going to break out, he's looked like a serviceable 13th forward on a lottery team. Unfortunately however, up until his injury he was played more by Cunneyworth than players like Darche and at times Kostitsyn. Blunden combines the lowest competition score on the Canadiens with the lowest offensive zone starts. If you think that makes no sense, you're right. He also recorded the lowest risk/reward of any Habs player. This combined with the worst possession numbers (about equivalent to Nokelainen) and creating only 2 scoring chances for every 3 against is not encouraging. Blunden had yet to draw a penalty at the 42 game mark, which is why his low PIM results in an unreal number for his penalty ratio. The most positive things you can say about Blunden is that he's been very lucky, and his line has managed to drive the play up the ice a reasonable amount.

First Quarter Grade: N/A

First Half Grade: 4/10

Palushaj_2_medium

Aaron Palushaj Didn't play much in the second quarter as Leblanc stole his job, but he did look okay and has flourished in Hamilton since then. Even more encouraging, Palushaj looked awesome in a recent 1 game call up for the Habs and registered his first career NHL point in the process. A lot of Habs fans have soured on Palushaj as he hasn't produced much in the NHL, and they've watched Matt D'agostini play well for the St. Louis Blues, however he shows many signs of being a future possession monster on a 3rd line. He's been remarkably unlucky, carrying a 3.8 team shooting percentage while he's on the ice, but maintained a solid risk/reward rating and possession numbers while drawing twice the penalties he takes. He's played against weak competition with high offensive zone starts, but that's how he should be used as a rookie. He's still below par in scoring chances but that is reversing as he adjusts to the league. Perhaps most encouraging with Palushaj is the Relative Corsi number we mentioned concerning Leblanc. Of any player who played over 10 games with the Canadiens this year, no one has put up a better Relative Corsi than Palushaj's 16.8.

First Quarter Grade: 5/10

First Half Grade: 5/10

DEFENSEMEN

Subban_2_medium

P.K. Subban took a huge hit all over the place statistically. As the team took a nosedive it was probably inevitable that the top defenseman would dive too, but it hasn't been pretty. Doing the hard slogging with little goaltending luck and not much offensive support has lead Subban to lay just above even on possession, and slightly below in scoring chances. Nonetheless, Subban has been unfairly maligned during this time. He still maintains the highest risk/reward rating on the entire team, and despite constant complaints about discipline, is only taking 1.5 penalties per 1 he draws at even strength. To explain how important Subban is to the Canadiens, I defer to Christopher Boucher's recent piece:

Not only does Subban have the most ice-time, he is also the most involved player on the Canadiens. He engages in 4.32 events per-minute of ice-time. If we multiply that by his ice-time this shows that Subban makes an average of 102 plays per-game that influence puck-possession. No other player on the Habs averages more than 84 events (or plays) per-game. Of those plays, Subban makes 73 plays that acquire or maintain puck-possession, and only 29 that fail to acquire or lose puck-possession.

In essence, Subban makes more successful plays per game than most players make plays at all. The kid is a stud dealing with an impossibly low personal shooting percentage despite putting up elite level shot production at 22 years old. He's still driving the play towards the opponent's end consistently, and still positive at even strength.

First Quarter Grade: 10/10

First Half Grade: 8/10

Gorges_2_medium

Josh Gorges has also taken a few hits, but he's been a great deal luckier than his defense partner. He's lost even more ground in possession than Subban has, now below even in Corsi and at even in Fenwick, yet he's still looking excellent on the scoring chance counts. Part of that is likely Gorges' shot blocking prowess, as he leads the league in that category. Gorges has actually been given even tougher work than Subban, higher quality of competition all around, and even fewer offensive zone starts, likely because Subban is a better threat to score, while Gorges is defense oriented. Surprisingly though, Gorges has driven the play forward with even more success than Subban has according to zone starts and finishes. Another surprise is that per 60 minutes, Gorges is also less disciplined than Subban, taking 3 penalties for every one he draws. Gorges continues to impress in a role most thought he would never be able to handle as a top pairing defenseman.

First Quarter Grade: 9/10

First Half Grade: 8/10

Emelin_2_medium

Alexei Emelin has taken amazing strides in the second quarter. At first those strides were taken in his natural position as a left side defenseman, then what looked like a failed experiment to switch him to the right side to accommodate Kaberle, followed by Emelin adjusting to that side as well and becoming a force no matter where he plays. Emelin's possession numbers have taken a hit, like everyone, and he's still pretty unlucky as far as goaltending is concerned, but where he's really impressed is scoring chances. Emelin was the only regular defenseman on the Canadiens to have more scoring chances for the team while he was on the ice than against the team at even strength. Overall he was against the weaker side of opponent's lineups during this time, but the impressiveness of those numbers aren't easily brushed aside. Emelin also draws more penalties per one he takes than any other defenseman on the Habs.

First Quarter Grade: 6/10

First Half Grade: 7/10

Diaz_2_medium

Raphael Diaz, after being up and down for most of the first quarter, seems to have found a bit of a niche with the Habs. He would still be more suited to a bottom pairing role, but as the Canadiens are low on options, his play has been admirable. Diaz had a really lucky second quarter despite a large drop off in possession and scoring chance differential. Backed by excellent goaltending and around average team shooting, he put up solid numbers against reasonably tough competition while starting the majority of his shifts outside the offensive zone. As the drop off in possession is team wide, I don't think any single player can be blamed, so the only really worrying stat for Diaz is his terrible penalty ratio, taking 5 penalties per 1 he draws. A relatively small problem when compared to him being able to handle 2nd pairing minutes without looking bad.

First Quarter Grade: 6/10

First Half Grade: 6/10

Gill_2_medium

Hal Gill is clearly showing a few signs of age. He went from a tough minutes defenseman paired with Subban at the beginning of the year, to a more sheltered 3rd pairing guy who doesn't get a lot of offensive zone starts, but isn't trusted enough to take a purely defensive role. Using Gill this way has actually worked out pretty well as his possession numbers are only slightly below even, despite the terrible play of the team overall. He's also still quite the successful player when used properly as his risk/reward is relatively solid. Where Gill has been hurt the most is in the scoring chance differential, which has lead to a -9 true +/- rating through 42 games. He has a lot of value as a penalty killing specialist, but is likely not a player who a team will want in a top 6 role going into next year, at least not for the $2.25 million he's making this season. Surprisingly though, considering Gill's lack of foot-speed and style of play, he only takes 2.3 penalties per 1 that he draws which isn't too bad.

First Quarter Grade: 6/10

First Half Grade: 5/10

Kaberle_2_medium

Tomas Kaberle wasn't able to reignite the powerplay for very long, but luckily his even strength play has been much stronger than originally predicted. Unfortunately for Kaberle, a lot of this has been due to unsustainable shooting percentage over a short period. His possession numbers aren't impressive when you compare them to the team average, but when compared to the team over the same time he's played with them, he has actually recorded a positive Relative Corsi score. And while he's an overall -6 over 42 games, he was even with the Canadiens up to the 42 game mark. He's just below even in scoring chance differential, but considering that he was brought in as a powerplay specialist, this is not a big deal. The fact that he's close to even there is actually a bonus considering the defensive stigma that came with Kaberle. He plays a sheltered role at even strength, by no means a top 4 defender, but he plays his role well. Most of his shifts end in the right zone, and his risk/reward rating is a team best 2.17 since he was acquired. The knocks on Kaberle are remarkably unfounded.

First Quarter Grade: N/A

First Half Grade: 7/10

Weber_2_medium

Yannick Weber struggled to stay in the roster in the second quarter as he fell out of favour following some brutal games. Weber hasn't been given much of a chance to play a regular role on defense, but when he has it's been in a highly sheltered role, starting in the offensive zone a whopping 61.4% of the time and facing the bottom half of team's lineups. despite this, he's been outchanced at even strength and has the worst possession numbers of the Habs defensemen. Some good luck has kept him at a positive true +/- through 42 games, and he has a solid risk/reward rating through excellent work on the powerplay, but at this point in his career he remains a PP specialist, unable to hold a regular spot on D. His habit of taking penalties without a great ability to draw them also doesn't help earn a regular spot.

First Quarter Grade: 6/10

First Half Grade: 5/10

Campoli_2_medium

Chris Campoli looks a like a lot worse of a defenseman than he actually is. He's one of those players where your perception when simply "watching the games" isn't a good way to evaluate him. You have to pay close attention to see the benefit of Campoli. He skates weird, and makes some high profile mistakes that cloud judgement and make him look clumsy, but through 10 games he played for Montreal up to this point he put up excellent possession and a solid risk/reward rating (similar to Gorges'). He's also been on the ice for horrendous goaltending, which clouds opinions of his play. To add to this, he's actually managed to push the play forward more effectively than most Habs defensemen according to his zone starts and finishes. Looking at those stats it should be no surprise that he's outchanced the competition at even strength. He's also drawn 1 penalty per 60 minutes of ice time while taking no penalties himself. Does he play against weak competition? Yes. Is he sheltered defensively? Yes. Campoli isn't a top 4 defenseman, but he might just be an elite level 5th or 6th defenseman, which is incredibly enticing for teams heading into the playoffs looking for that ever elusive depth on defense. Frankly having him out of the lineup in favour of Weber once Campoli has been healthy makes no sense from any perspective.

First Quarter Grade: N/A

First Half Grade: 7/10

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