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Game 49 Recap: What Just Happened?

Wow. It's crazy what happens when the Montreal Canadiens get a bit of luck on their side for once. With the Detroit Red Wings coming out of the gate very lackadaisical and without legendary defenseman and captain NIcklas Lidstrom, the Habs dominated the Red Wings on the scoreboard 7-2 and chased All-Star goaltender Jimmy Howard after just 20 minutes of play.

Much maligned Scott Gomez got the game going with a rocket pass that bounced off Rene Bourque and behind Howard. The scouting reports that Bourque was a slow skater couldn't have been more wrong, as he's been flying down the wing every game in his new Habs jersey.

Alexei Emelin then registered his first career NHL goal off some amazing work by Andrei Kostitsyn, who won the puck off of Henrik Zetterberg and then battled his way behind the net to through it back to the point where Emelin wired it off the post and in.

Desharnais and Plekanec followed that up with goals on defensive breakdowns by the Red Wings who were completely out of sorts in the first period.

The Habs followed that period by capitalizing on their first two shots of the second period and sitting back until midway through the third period when Jiri Hudler scored a pair for Detroit. The first goal Hudler scored came a fraction of a second after TSN's Gord Miller said shutout, and explained how he had no affect on ruining shutouts.

Erik Cole finished the game off by capitalizing on a set up by Lars Eller. Cole's whistle-to-whistle effort has been a joy to watch this season, and as one EOTP commenter (JD_) put it, the rest of the team needs to drink some Cole-Aid.

Star-divide

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Despite the big gap in goalscoring, Carey Price put on an impressive performance, especially in the second when the Red Wings owned the puck for most of the period.

The real star of the night however, was Lars Eller. Although Eller had a relatively quite night offensively with 1 assist, he was put against Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg for nearly all his shifts. He managed to hold those two superstars off with fantastic defensive play and puck possession. Datsyuk was held without a shot in 16:17 of ice time.

While the season is most likely still in the tank, there's some encouraging signs on the horizon:

Max Pacioretty is back to being rewarded for his excellent shot production, up to 35 points on the season now.

Cole is leading the Habs with 39 points which is pretty great for a guy we were told was a terrible signing akin to the 11 points, -9 wonder that is Ville Leino.

Eller and David Desharnais continue to excel against tougher competition we were expecting them to face this season.

Bourque is starting to build chemistry with Plekanec, and his speed down the wing adds a different dimension to the lineup.

Kaberle may be sub par in his own zone, but he's putting up points effortlessly in his bottom pairing role with Montreal, even with a dysfunctional powerplay. 13 in 20 games, and he even has a +2 rating after tonight.

Hidden in such a solid game however was one quibble to be had, the mildly controversial move by Randy Cunneyworth to bench P.K. Subban after a penalty that negated a powerplay in the first period. I've already ranted on twitter and in the comments about how I believe this was a poor decision by Cunneyworth, but to be realistic Subban is going to be the same player tomorrow, regardless of the semantics.

Three Stas: 1) David Desharnais 2) Rene Bourque 3) Alexei Emelin

Advanced Stats: Shift Charts / Head to Head / Corsi & Fenwick


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Eller at 20 points. My goal for 30+ non PP points for him this year is steadily getting closer.

As is the potential 30 goal campaigns from Cole and Pacioretty.

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by Stephan Cooper on Jan 25, 2012 11:18 PM EST reply actions  

The crazy thing about Pacioretty’s production is he’s done it without powerplay goals. If he’d kept his PP pace from last year he’d be at 24 goals now.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 25, 2012 11:20 PM EST up reply actions  

9th in the league in shots per game, he’s keeping good company. BTW how’s that 2007 draft looking?

If the power play was getting goals, a few guys would have interesting scoring totals and a lot of people would probably be off Subban’s back.

by Hypnotoad on Jan 25, 2012 11:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe we should compose an article about how the Habs system is terrible AFTER 2007.

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by Chris Boyle on Jan 25, 2012 11:47 PM EST up reply actions  

All those bad drafts after 2007 and before 2010, the system may never recover…

by Hypnotoad on Jan 25, 2012 11:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Well that 2008 draft is a bit of a blackhole so far. Although Kristo and Quailer can still make it. the 09’s through 11’s look pretty good considering there isn’t a single second rounder among them and the highest pick is 18.

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by Stephan Cooper on Jan 25, 2012 11:59 PM EST up reply actions  

The Habs can afford a down year though. They’re averaging 3 NHLers per draft between 2003 and 2007 and, as you said, the post 2008 hauls look promising.

I fear Timmins and co are spoiling me for life, 3-4 guys a year, most of them quality players not just organizational filler, isn’t the norm.

by Hypnotoad on Jan 26, 2012 12:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Plus they have two guys on their roster who were undrafted: Desharnais and Diaz.

by MathMan on Jan 26, 2012 12:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Habs seem to have quite the success rate with undrafted guys. Gorges as well, off the top of my head.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 26, 2012 12:30 AM EST up reply actions  

In fairness, he was a Sharks find. But he became a solid D-man in Montreal.

by despisethesun on Jan 26, 2012 12:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Well the Sharks thought he was a throw in for the Rivet trade. But yes they found him originally.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 26, 2012 2:32 PM EST up reply actions  

They’re not the 2006-2007 Ducks, but it’s always fun to have success with undrafted guys.

by Hypnotoad on Jan 26, 2012 12:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Darche was undrafted as well if I’m not mistaken.

by Alexandre S on Jan 26, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions  

He went undrafted, but bounced around 6 NHL teams, and played 101 games, before signing with the Habs. A good minor league free agent pickup.

by Hypnotoad on Jan 26, 2012 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I still think Kristo is going to be a really solid player.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 26, 2012 12:30 AM EST up reply actions  

16 ESGs puts him tied for 8th in the whole league.

Ahead of him: Stamkos, Malkin, Toews, Kessel, Gaborik, Vrbata (what?) and Ryan. That’s it.

by MathMan on Jan 25, 2012 11:39 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s some damn good company. I noticed Vrbata has an insane amount of goals the other day, and his shot production is actually good too. He’s a bit lucky but not Bruins lucky.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 26, 2012 12:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Oddly enough, Vrbata’s success has come on the road for the most part. 17 road goals to 6 at home.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 26, 2012 12:36 AM EST up reply actions  

All I know is that the bar I was watching this game at until they went up 6-0 is going to get another visit from me soon during a game.

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by Bruce Peter on Jan 26, 2012 12:55 AM EST reply actions  

small sample size?

The Habs have compiled 8 pts in last 6 games against 6 playoff teams and have played well in all of those games except probably WSH …. If they had that pace for the first 40 games, the playoffs would be a lock. And if they could win a S/O, that would be 9 or 10 pts. No one man should get the credit, but the team may’ve turned a corner, regardless of how the season ends.

by Watty4ever on Jan 26, 2012 1:13 AM EST reply actions  

What’s happened within that time? Someone came back to the roster.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 26, 2012 1:27 AM EST up reply actions  

I prefer to give the credit to Cunneyworth

just as plausible … after he had 5-10 games to reverse the team’s “loser” mentality and put his imprint on the squad, make the necessary tweaks to get more out of the players on the ice …

And they added Bourque. And lost Cammy. And they lost Gionta. And Blunden’s ice time increased. And Gomez returned.

I’m happy to have Gomez back playing 3rd line minutes; the better you are at #9-11 upfront, the better the team.

by Watty4ever on Jan 26, 2012 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Or Cunneyworth got back another good player and now he has too many good players for his continuing poor strategy to continue to kill him.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 26, 2012 2:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Ah, the saga of Cunneyworth ...

If your argument is that Gomez is so valuable and RC is so much worse behind the bench than JM that adding Gomez alone (while losing Gionta) is enough to both offset a DROP in coaching expertise and dramatically improve the overall quality of the team’s on-ice personnel, then Gomez should probably be in the running for league MVP.

All of this at the same time that PG executed the worst trade in team history by adding Bourque and deleting the invaluable Cammy, according to some vocal fans who posted repeatedly that the “trade makes no sense”. I guess Gomez is incredible and everyone else in Habland is just along for the ride, including Cunneyworth, DD, Patches, Cole, Pleks, Eller, …

by Watty4ever on Jan 26, 2012 7:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Gotta love those straw men and false quotes. You’re a gem.

Try writing a comment without lying or committing nuclear hyperbole please.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 27, 2012 4:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Are you actually saying that Cunneyworth is a better coach that JM? He coaches a more entertaining style and gives the guys a little bit more room to play with a lead…but IMO JM is a much better coach who lost his job because the GM panicked and cost us the season.

People only look at Gomez’s salary when they consider his play; but the guy is a top 6 forward with upside. He has one good scoring season but other than that he has been a passer first. He also has great vision and makes his line mates more dangerous. To completely write off a player because you don’t like him and using your bias to make a point is pretty weak. Is Gomez dramatically overpaid? Yes! Did he have a disappointing year last year? Yes! Is he a bad hockey player? No.

by Silvertip on Jan 27, 2012 1:19 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

Speakingof small sample sizes

Habs are 3-1-2, since trading for Bourque.

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but don't forget...

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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Jan 26, 2012 7:17 AM EST up reply actions  

oh

and 3-1-1 with him in the lineup

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but don't forget...

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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Jan 26, 2012 7:20 AM EST up reply actions  

We knew they’d turn a corner once they got healthy. With the key being Gomez, really.

by MathMan on Jan 26, 2012 7:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Don’t be silly. Getting rid of Cammalleri was the key.

by Olivier on Jan 26, 2012 9:53 AM EST up reply actions  

Of course, addition by subtraction is the solution to all problems a hockey team may have. Silly me.

Just imagine how awesome the Habs’ll be once they trade Subban for a bag of pucks!

by MathMan on Jan 26, 2012 10:37 AM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think that I can discount Gomez as a contributor. He has made a difference in the last couple of games. He is playing much better than last year. I haven’t seen him shy away from hits or float around the wing as much which has made a difference. That being said his cost/return ratio makes him an obstacle to the teams’ growth. Bottom line, he needs to up his game a couple of notches again or he needs to go.

by Silvertip on Jan 27, 2012 1:09 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

The Subban situation bears watching, but this turned out to be the perfect game to address discipline issues (especially with 7 D dressed anyways). I still am concerned about the people teaching him these lessons having no future with the team and no previous NHL coaching experience… I’m not sure what Subban is going to be receptive to in this situation. He has grown increasingly frustrated based on his on-ice discipline recently. Hopefully post ASG we’ll see a different pattern from player and staff.

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by Bruce Peter on Jan 26, 2012 10:29 AM EST reply actions  

We also need to take a step back and remove the microscope though.

The media seems to overreact and then it is met with an immediate over reaction by us to either a. the move or b. the media. None of us are privy to any of the inner circles information, so we speculate and speculation spirals if the foundation is based on shady information.

It seems as though we have learned nothing from the Carey Price situation and most of our reactions are based on emotion. That emotion is fear. We fear the ridiculous move.

Carey Price was raked over the coals by the media, he was treated poorly by the fans and he had to mature in the burning heat of the spotlight. For everybody who wanted him to stay, every criticism was cutting and it resulted in a defense or rallying around him in fear of a stupid move by management. We treat management like they are bumbling fools, but being in a team environment criticism is rampant, as is accountability. Every successful work environment needs a system of accountability and structure for critical input and growth.

Subban said as much on Tuesday and Price and Cole supported the decision to bench him publicly last night. I love Subban. I want him going nowhere, but the guy is a wild stallion who needs to be broken to a degree. Everything is micro analyzed and blown out of proportion.

Nobody remembers the things surrounding Roy after the 1986 Cup. History can look at statistics and say he was pretty damn great in 87 and 88, but he wasn’t. His stats were marginally better than Bryan Hayward’s and in the 1987 playoffs he was benched in favour of Hayward. He reacted poorly and showed his immaturity, he talks about it candidly in his book. Today it would have resulted in an internet reaction that would talk about maybe it is time for Roy to go. Will the Habs trade Roy, they are making a statement by not trusting him just one year after leading the team to a Cup, etc. etc.

It was the natural maturation process of a young player. Price just went through it in front of our eyes and Subban is going through it right now. This site is a great resource for information, analysis and statistical support, but what Subban is going through is beyond our limited understanding to really comment on with authority. We don’t know if Subban just sat in Cunneyworth’s office and was told, we know we have burdened you with a lot of responsibility and are willing to offer you leeway, but you need to stop criticism A. Then Subban goes out immediately and commits criticism A.

I have been in the locker room. I have had teammates who struggled with accountability. Teammates who are good guys but struggle with authority etc. When Carey Price and Eric Cole essentially call him out, something exists which we are missing.

The medias goal is to drive sales and hits. Creating a Subban trade market does exactly that. That leads to us fearing the worst and over sensitive analysis. Am I afraid the Habs will trade Subban? Not really, but I feel less comfortable when he gets benched or when he is the subject of intense scrutiny.

Gauthier created this sense of fear with his recent actions. The trust was removed so we are like wounded children waiting for the next abuse. With this we are overly sensitive and we are playing right into the hyperbole.

Personally, I am going to step back a little and relax. I am not going to get to worked up based on scenarios that are being driven by my distrust and fear.

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by Chris Boyle on Jan 26, 2012 11:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh, I’m full on support for correcting discipline issues… He definitely has some to work out right now. What I’m actually concerned about is the situation in the room not with singling him out, but what authority they could possibly have to correct it. Cunneyworth and Ladouceur may be correct in trying to address this, and Subban may not be on the trade block (there’s no evidence that he is), but I wonder if Subban and the team can really address these issues in the current state of the team. I suspect they can because the players’ goal is to still qualify for the postseason. Ultimately I have more faith in Subban listening to his teammates than the current coaches, to be honest.

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by Bruce Peter on Jan 26, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions  

This wasn’t directed at you, just us in general. We have been ultra sensitive and frustrated lately. I have zero idea or understanding of the hierarchy in that room at this point.

I know I will feel a lot better when the deadline passes. At least I hope I do.

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by Chris Boyle on Jan 26, 2012 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

A sound post, CB. We may differ on some of the minutiae, but the basic point is, in my little world, bang on.

Observing broad overreaction to everything Hab has been part and parcel of being a Habs fan for as long as I can remember, which goes back to the early 70s.

But, once you think you’ve got a handle on it, technology evolves, and global communication becomes the norm. Everything ratchets up a notch.

The blogosphere then begins eroding the MSM’s inward-looking, self-preserving power base – how many of your daily clicks are blog vs MSM, and which ones come first – and everything ratchets up another notch.

Then this already global communication becomes virtually instantaneous, real-time, and comes at you in small, digestible chunks. Everything ratchets up yet another notch.

And it’s a race to be first, cause first – whether or not it’s true – engenders some notion of cred.

If MeltdownDecember1995™ had transpired today, not even Fukushima would have garnered the same attention.

Some Habs-intense discussion forums are completely haywire almost all the time. But, even here, where the discussion is generally more staid, the overreaction creeps into the discussion. To be sure, this is sincerely not a comment targeting anyone in particular, just an observation about the inevitable state of affairs as it pertains to being a Habs fan in 2012 AD.

Most every subjective observation that is posited here and every where else is no better than pure speculation. Pure speculation. And we’re all better off when it is recongnized as such rather than being allowed to crystallize into some notional reality.

PK’s adventures from the moment he arrived in Montreal – he didn’t get quite the news flow in Hamilton and was, for all intents and purposes, pretty much the same basic human being – have been impossible not to notice. Even for people who aren’t otherwise hockey fans. And PK knows this. If he’s anything, it’s bright. None of this is lost on him.

Which is an important consideration. Nobody is inside the room, let alone inside PK’s head, but I’d venture to guess he’s quite self-aware. He has publicly addressed the growing pains and there was nothing in his comments to suggest they were disingenuous.

Doesn’t mean he’s going to just roll over. He is, as you put it, a stallion. He also knows that.

I’m hardly concerned about PK. All I’m seeing is a rising talent going through a maturation process, with all its requisite lumps. For other observers, there are problems and ticking time bombs lurking in every corner. Like I said earlier, it’s the inevitable outgrowth of how technology has allowed communication to evolve into something seemingly all-encompassing.

Raise your hand if PK’s short-lived and hardly attention-worthy benching angered you, based on what you presume to know about the team dynamic.

Really raise your hand if, when PK was not on the ice in the 2nd, you thought he had been traded.

And I’m hardly what you would call a boundless optimist. I just prefer to keep things on a steady and even keel.

If you ask me, PK isn’t going anywhere and never was. If some other GM wants to pick up the phone and perform ritual suicide, then he should go right ahead. I just don’t see it.

Bruce makes a valid point about the two Randys and their relative ability to address issues given their arguably lame-duck status. I’d only note that Ladouceur is not necessarily toast, given his current role as assistant, and, moreover, the reality is that one and maybe both of them will be looking for jobs after the season is over. They can hardly afford to not behave like coaches now, even with the ostensible handcuffs.

by JD__ on Jan 26, 2012 12:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Christ Almighty, apologies for length.

by JD__ on Jan 26, 2012 12:45 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s a pretty damn accurate description of what’s going on.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 26, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Well said. For all the media hype, and our reactionary stance stemming from it, we never know what’s going on in a locker room, and its nice of us to think that those guys with the letters on the front of their jerseys are the ones standing up and giving the guys their due respect/ brow beating. But we know nothing about that. We can’t sit here and surmise that Gionta is in the dressing room doling out praise and reprimand, nor can we discount the possibility that Gio isn’t the guy that some respect the most, thus, the info coming to them might be better left for PLek, Gorges, Gill…whoever.
I like the fact that Subban has openly spoke about it, saying that he needs to be coached. I would be a little off kilter if he was saying “Ah he blows up on me and then he sees what I can do (spinnerama, end to end rush) and everything is ok. He knows I’m solid. No coach is going to change me”. As stated above, PK is a smart kid who knows the score. I doubt he fears being traded. But to have Price and Cole come out and give there 2 cents worth of sound bite, it brings up questions we could never expect to get answers to. So… why ask? The team is in the shades, I don’t mean to say dark clouds are circling, just that there’s a ton of uncertainty re:Coach,GM, being sellers or buyers. I would think that trade possibilities are cycling through guys heads about now… pending UFAs and RFAs wondering if there is going to be a deal or not with the Habs. So, everything being equal, a few things on the radar for a young D playing #1 status isn’t that big a deal.

And throughout this, they played hockey last night. Yes they slowed their pace after notching 6.. but… the first period’s pace was Awesome to watch. Looking forward to the second half.

by Cruisin4aBruisin on Jan 26, 2012 1:54 PM EST reply actions  

The third period is where they really impressed me. The Wings were off-kilter, but nailed two goals on two chances and the habs answered by shutting them off altogether and plugging 6 straight chances. The Wings weren’t the Wings™ but still, the habs could have shelled. But to me, it looks like they collectively tought “screw it” and went for the jugular, again, and harder.

And how they flatly stopped celebrating goals after the 5th. I liked that. Beat them into a pulp, act casual.

by Olivier on Jan 26, 2012 6:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Babcock

After the game, he told reporters he wasn’t going to watch any game tape, he was going to get a drink. So he went to Hurley’s and chatted with fans.

Awesome.

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by Bruce Peter on Jan 26, 2012 2:36 PM EST reply actions  

What a guy, wish I went to Hurley’s last night.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 26, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions  

That is awesome.

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by Chris Boyle on Jan 26, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Is this a place known for post-game drinking?

by fsaintjacques on Jan 26, 2012 6:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Scott Gomez, underrated

Nothing that hasn’t been said here already, but the win/loss record with/without is interesting.

http://jetsnation.ca/2012/1/26/is-scott-gomez-hockeys-most-underrated-yes

by Roke on Jan 26, 2012 3:05 PM EST reply actions  

Gomez doesn’t just lead the team in first assist rate… he leads the entire NHL in first assist rate???

Oh my. Small sample and all, but… oh my.

Gomez is inching to that magical 2 points per 60 mark on assists alone.

by MathMan on Jan 26, 2012 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah but...

He sucks and he’s an AHL quality player.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 26, 2012 3:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I just checked that. Back north of 1.8 per 60 again. He’s a top six forward once more in ES scoring terms. Shame about the powerplay.

It turns out team on ice shooting does eventually regress to the mean. Who would have predicted that? ;)

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by Stephan Cooper on Jan 27, 2012 1:34 AM EST up reply actions  

Was just about to post that, glad I looked. Great article by Cam.

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by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 26, 2012 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Good summary...

…including your PK comments. In fact I’d venture he’ll be an even better player tomorrow.

by punkster on Jan 26, 2012 3:35 PM EST reply actions  

Nah, he's not playing tomorrow

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by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 26, 2012 3:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I have absolutely no idea what is really going on with RC, but I am not one of those who think he is a lame-duck coach. In fact, under his circumstances he could be the least lame-duck coach in the NHL.

In business, it is not uncommon at all to bring someone into an interim position to get to the bottom of things, send very tough messages and basically kick some ass hard specifically because they are not there for the long term.

And if he wins, I would not bet against the team figuring out how to keep him. Either way, not a safe proposition to ignore him.

by VVV on Jan 26, 2012 5:14 PM EST reply actions  

I’m not too enamored with the way RC goes about things. Frankly, if it weren’t for some really odd decisions (benching Eller after throwing him into the fire) I’d surmise he’s trying to develop players first and win games second. He’s gotten better since his horrible first stretch, but he still makes a lot of odd moves and still seems to have an overly simplistic approach to the game.

Frankly, I’m rather hoping he is a lame duck. I think he needs to take major strides to become a reasonably good coach at the NHL level.

by MathMan on Jan 26, 2012 5:33 PM EST up reply actions  

I hear you guys about RC ...

But the guy who seemed paralyzed and just kept doing the same thing regardless of the result was JM. Deer in the headlights. RC has done some unconventional things, but good coaches will try the unconventional to see the result or just to shake things up … whether that’s for a shift, a period, or a game. Put the 4th line on the PP! Switch your D pairings! Change minutes, play your backup goalie. Whatever, but it can’t be “biz as usual” when that $%# ain’t workin’. Right or wrong, my issue with JM was that he seemed to be in a coma and that’s not the leader you need when things are going wrong, over and over again.

And as a true Habs fan, I like to see the team winning and playing good hockey.

by Watty4ever on Jan 26, 2012 7:23 PM EST up reply actions  

If that’s your opinion of JM, you’re either letting your hatred of his supposedly-boring style blind you, you have been paying no attention whatsoever, or both. JM would routinely change assignments, and sometimes lines, in games, and it won the Habs games. The first game against Philly was a clear example of this, but it was by no means the only one.

Cunneyworth has tried to think outside the box, and it has generally backfired. It’s pretty much put the team in a hole they’ll be very hard-pressed to get out of. He’s now gone right back to the lines that Martin came up with. So much for thinking outside the box.

And, um, for winning hockey, Cunneyworth a a head coach is still what, 6-9-2? He’ll need to do a heck of a lot better to climb out of the hole he sunk the team in. As a true Habs fan, I’m horrified that a good coach was fired for spurious reasons and his replacement drove the team into the ground and is now frantically trying to recover, largely by applying the methods of his predecessor. Yeah, he’s doing better now that the team is healthier. But JM was actually keeping the team afloat through all the injuries and RC failed at it.

by MathMan on Jan 26, 2012 8:10 PM EST up reply actions  

the contradictions are there -

The 1-7-2 start didn’t help. It just seems that you guys (the one voice that echoes loudest) have agreed to sing the praises of JM and crucify PG and RC, which is backwards IMO …. JM’s record was awful because of the injuries, but yet PG is incompetent because he’s made bad moves and players have been hurt? Bad moves like signing Cole & Gorges, getting DD signed for 2 years, signing Emelin & Diaz, acquiring Kaberle for nothing (probably 5th or 6th in points for Habs in the games played since trade), and getting Bourque & 2nd round pick for Cammy, thereby adding speed, grit, and another big body to go to the net, while giving up nothing in scoring ability (at 1/2 the salary).

And RC had to reverse some of the harm that’s been done under JM, so obviously a transitional period is required. If all of the lines are the same and the players are the same and RC employs the same system and deploys the players in the same way that JM did (none of which is true), then would it matter who’s coaching? If the key to the team’s success is having Gomez back in the lineup, then all is well, right?

So now the Habs have a competitive team (even w/o Markov, Gionta and White), they’re ~$9MM under the cap going into the deadline, they have plenty of young talent, they have vets to shed at the deadline, they’re bigger upfront than they’ve been in recent memory with skilled, power forward types (Cole, Patches, Bourque, Eller) who are signed for reasonable money, and they have a couple of quality youngsters in the farm system.

JM was adequate, but not good. If you think JM did a good job, then I’m not sure how we can dump on PG. Or RC, really. JM sets the bar pretty low.

by Watty4ever on Jan 26, 2012 8:44 PM EST up reply actions  

you are creating a straw man

It just seems that you guys (the one voice that echoes loudest) have agreed to sing the praises of JM and crucify PG and RC, which is backwards IMO

You then bring up PG moves that were praised here, Cole, Gorges, DD, Emelin, Diaz and Kaberle.

PG has been criticized, but most of it has been tempered with the understanding that he may have been influenced to make some of these moves.

The only move that he has been criticized about hard is the Cammalleri deal and some of that was the embarrassing nature of it.

RC has been skewered, but his record and decision making have left him open to that.

If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33

by Chris Boyle on Jan 26, 2012 9:15 PM EST up reply actions  

And even on the Cammalleri deal, we’re open to the possibility that Bourque might be better than advertised.

If he turns out to be a guy who can score 25 goals and row upstream on Plekanec’s wing on a 3.3 mil salary, that trade was actually pretty good.

by MathMan on Jan 26, 2012 10:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I never complained about the return, I was pissed off at the optics and how it made the team look Mickey Mouse. I was actually relieved when it was Bourque. I was preparing myself for much worse.

Andrew was pretty pissed and I could understand his anger, but he doesn’t represent everybody’s voice.

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by Chris Boyle on Jan 26, 2012 10:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Reading Kent Wilson’s analysis of Bourque initially made me loathe the trade, but so far Bourque has turned out all right. So far so good.

The worst that can be said about it is “it could have been worse” and there’s a chance it could turn out pretty good.

by MathMan on Jan 26, 2012 10:18 PM EST up reply actions  

My position from the begining was that if Bourque was a quality 2nd line winger like he was before the season started it was a perfectly good trade.

Its if he’s a lame 3rd liner where it would be a bad move.

Plus optics, plus the abandoning of the effective 3 line strategy they started with (which seems to be slowly returning as time goes on).

Writer for http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/

by Stephan Cooper on Jan 26, 2012 10:34 PM EST up reply actions  

My biggest issues with the trade were selling a player at his lowest possible value, and taking on a player who’s signed until he’s 35.

Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
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by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 27, 2012 4:45 AM EST up reply actions  

fair enough

but why does JM get the benefit of the doubt – his record and decision making weren’t overly impressive, but you think he skates because the team had injuries.

Similarly, Bourque has scored 27 goals in each of the last 2 years, so I’m not sure why we’d view it as implausible that he’d continue to be a 25 goal scorer.

As for this “straw man” nonsense … if you say, “I have no idea man. This trade makes no sense” over a dozen times in multiple posts – shoot, just be a man and own it … we’ll all respect you more, right Andy?

by Watty4ever on Jan 29, 2012 3:17 AM EST up reply actions  

JM’s decision making was fine. I’m not sure what you base yourself to make that statement. He continually put players in positions to succeed and developped players by gradually increasing their responsabilities. Even in 2009-2010, his personnel usage was excellent.

The worry about Bourque isn’t that he couldn’t score so much that he would be a net negative in the scoring chances trade. The scouting reports from Calgary had not been flattering in that regard for the last year and a half or so.

by MathMan on Jan 29, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions  

I referenced this last night when you said

(and I’m paraphrasing here) “RC is in a hole mostly of his own making”.

The team under Martin won 41% of the games they played with OTLs adding another 7 points for a total of 33 points out of a possible 64 (52%)

The team under Cunneyworth has won 35%, add two loser points and the team’s at 14 out of a possible 34 points (41%).

If JM stuck around for the past 17 games and we indulge in a little ceteris paribus we’re talking an additional 9pts (so let’s say four extra wins and a loser point)— good enough for 6th with 3 teams 1 pt behind but 1 less game and T.O. out of the playoffs (yeah!).

So basic, entry level, descriptive stats back up your point— to a point.

After all Martin was only 47% in his first 17 games and this without the (admittedly qualitative) insane environment that RC found himself in. That 6% difference in the first 17 games under each respective coach is the difference in their respective win % overall.

Does this mean that I think firing JM was a good idea? Nope. His coaching was good enough to get to the playoffs which is the first goal.

Right now, RC is six % slower getting to first base in his first 17 games as a head coach than JM was after 17 games in his 17th year of head coaching experience.

We’ll all get the chance to see how RC deals with the second half of the season. Maybe he’ll suck, maybe he’ll improve his form and get back that 6% and then some.

But to say that RC is responsible for the hole the habs are in when the difference between the two coaches is 6%, (that’s awfully close to the margin of error allowed for an acceptable p value) well that’s a narrative that will have to wait for the second half of the season for confirmation.

by subdoxastic on Jan 26, 2012 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Is Randy Cunneyworth singlehandedly responsible for the Habs’ losing streak? Of course not. Did he contribute significantly? I have absolutely no doubt.

Is it possible that he could learn and improve? Certainly. He already has. Is he likely to do so enough to bring the Habs to a playoff berth? Given where we are now, that seems very unlikely.

Is it likely that firing Martin and replacing him with Cunneyworth effectively sacked the season? I’d say it is quite likely.

I also had this little graph where I used Olivier’s work to chart the scoring chances differential of the team up to the Capitals game (this covers all situations):

The grey areas correspond to the Gomez injuries (you can see right there how much the second one hurt, combined as it was with losing Gionta). The red line is the Martin firing; the cyan line is the Pearn firing; the blue line is the Bourque trade. Keep in mind that this ignores score effects and covers all special teams as well as 5-on-5.

There was a significant drop immediately following JM’s firing, but Randy has since recovered and even went over where he started — buoyed somewhat by Gionta’s brief return, followed quickly by Gomez’s. Unfortunately, that massive downward swing that brought the Habs down to below 0 in chances differential was what they could not afford to do in their position. That 5-game losing streak to start RC’s tenure was largely deserved. It put them in a situation where RC could turn into Scotty Bowman and he would be unlikely to make the playoffs.

by MathMan on Jan 26, 2012 10:17 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

The other point that needs to be brought up is the nature of RC’s decisions themselves. Deciding to scratch Subban and Eller for an eminently winnable game. Throwing Eller into tough situations following his 5-point game, and then benching him when that predictably overwhelmed him. The defenseman roulette. Overplaying guys like Blunden. And so on.

by MathMan on Jan 26, 2012 10:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow revisionist history at work. Under JM the team was playing the odds and were losing I was amazed it was like someone rolling snake eyes over and over. Cammy hitting what felt like 10 posts a game.

I didn’t like JM’s coaching style, but to call him a bad coach and ignore all the injuries and bad luck is a disservice to the man.

by Silvertip on Jan 27, 2012 1:33 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

If, in fact, it was Molson or PG’s intent to shake things up by intentionally bringing in an operational mercenary under the guise of an interim role, their execution of this plan would be an utter fail.

At the outset, I suggested perhaps this was a Machiavellian plan to bring in a unilingual coach who, if successful – something which remains to be defined – could possibly stay on beyond the end of the season.

Unfortunately, not too long later, the team’s President/head of an ownership group and, subsequently, the GM, were publicly apologizing for being insensitive in their actions. Doesn’t smack of a thoughtful plan.

Moreover, if you’re really going to bring someone in to do this kind of job, you wouldn’t be doing it with an NHL-inexperienced coach, one who has never had to handle extremely well-compensated superstars, you’d be doing what St-Louis did with Ken Hitchcock.

Finally, there is nothing that RC has done to suggest he is doing anything other than what a head coach is expected to do to motivate the team.

This isn’t Bombardier bringing in Paul Tellier for a couple of years, as it faced imminent financial collapse. This isn’t even McKinsey & Co picking Air Canada apart on a consulting basis.

This just appears to be what it is: An assistant coach assuming the role of head coach on an interim basis. And when you’re interim, and unilingual, and the team’s owner is apologizing that you’re unilingual, there is a big duck walking around the room.

I remain hopeful RC adjusts to the role and achieves success. I am also hopeful that if he is successful, that he will be rewarded with an opportunity to stick around for the long term.

Hopeful.

by JD__ on Jan 26, 2012 7:25 PM EST up reply actions  

It was kind of surreal to see how many goals the team scored.

by Propwash on Jan 26, 2012 6:23 PM EST reply actions  

There is a bit of revisionist history underway tonight in regards to how the Cammy trade was handled around here.

That includes an individual or individuals who dumped on the fact Cammy had been traded before the return was even known. Not the manner in which he was traded, but just the fact he was traded.

Not a complaint, merely an observation.

And I find it disingenuous.

It’s up to you to differentiate your discussion forum from the unfortunate plethora of riff raff forums out there.

by JD__ on Jan 26, 2012 10:31 PM EST reply actions  

I can only speak for myself. I never pissed and moaned about the return, my only criticism was the timing of the deal and the lack of patience. A criticism I will stand by regardless of how many goals Bourque scores during his Montreal career.

If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33

by Chris Boyle on Jan 26, 2012 10:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I was miffed that Cammy was traded at all, personally, even before knowing the return, because it stank of a player getting shipped off because of “attitude” and this had virtually never been profitable for the Habs and I saw little reason to expect otherwise.

by MathMan on Jan 26, 2012 10:45 PM EST up reply actions  

In both cases, Chris and MM, I think it’s fair to say there were assumptions built into the reaction that were completely unverifiable, and allowed for liberties to be taken with management.

I am not an apologist for the Habs. At the same time, everything within reason.

That night was a huge turnoff for me on here.

And, frankly, one should never get married to positions. That just renders your upside as being someone who is purely obstinate in the face of contradictory evidence. The rest is downside.

In fairness, I ask that you call me out if I ever try to spin my way out of something.

This is a primo discussion forum. Reminds me of a place I used to haunt.

by JD__ on Jan 26, 2012 11:02 PM EST up reply actions  

We’re still fans. We get emotional sometimes. I like to think we’re good at taking that step back after that initial burst of bluster and look at things logically.

by MathMan on Jan 26, 2012 11:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I think it is slightly unreasonable to expect a fanbase to not react in an emotional manner after watching a player get traded in the middle of a period. On the heels of

1. An assistant coach being fired during a pre-game skate
2. The Markov fiasco in LA
3. Martin fired and hiring RC, then the org apologizing to the fans
4. Cammalleri being railroaded by French press
5. A national publication trashing the organization that afternoon
6. Watching the playoffs fade as a direct result of the Martin firing

I think everybody strives for Objectivity, but come on. If Andrew, Bruce, me etc., were not passionate about the team you wouldn’t be here right now because sites like this would not exist. My focus that night was anger at the circus atmosphere and I sat down and pieced together a piece based on little facts and pure speculation. So I slept on it and trashed it.

If you are looking for a site in which everybody has the ability to dedicate hundreds of hours per year for free and then emotionally disconnect themselves from the subject during moments of passion, you may be looking for a very long time. All of us reacted in a different manner and that will continue to happen. If it didn’t this would be a boring place to be.

If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33

by Chris Boyle on Jan 27, 2012 8:58 AM EST up reply actions  

You may have misunderstood, CB.

I’m not directly taking issue with what happened that night. Yeah, absolutely, it was a turn off.

Rather, it’s all the spinning that is going on in this thread.

There is nothing dishonourable about taking ownership of things you’ve said, even in the heat of the moment, if you’ve decided to alter your view. If you just expect people to ignore it, then there is no need to take you seriously.

That’s why I wrote, “In fairness, I ask that you call me out if I ever try to spin my way out of something.”

And, for the record, I didn’t have you specifically in mind when I wrote it.

by JD__ on Jan 27, 2012 9:45 AM EST up reply actions  

I just think that it was a perfect storm.

I know when I first heard he was sent home I thought are you effing kidding me? WTF is going on?

My mind went

1. Fuck this team.
2. This is going to be really bad
3. It isn’t as bad as I thought it was going to be
4. Why did they do this in the second period?
5. Gauthier’s explanation is weak
6. Why is a GM who has been pretty meticulous all of a sudden running with scissors.
7. Molson has to be behind this.
8. I am going to rip Molson
9. None of this is making sense or has any link to tangible proof
10. Go to sleep
11. Wake up. Scrap article. Relax
12. Look over numbers and shot data
13. Breathe in and realize that there is possible upside to the move
14. Wait and see and hope for the best.

That was about 24 hours to get to a point of full on relaxation and peace with it and I tend to find myself fairly removed from the emotional wreck I used to be.

If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33

by Chris Boyle on Jan 27, 2012 12:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Heh, on occasions of an extreme reaction, I find it best to let it out in one big go. I can read it later and think of the same situation a lot differently, but I like to get that opinion out there and re-evaluate at a later point.

It had been quite some time since I last had this kind of reaction…. the Centennial collapse leading to the Carbonneau firing was the last time for me. Nearly three years in between without severe reactions one way or the other to a single event (each had long build-ups). The summer of 2009 was so disorientating it didn’t really have a defining moment like that positive or negative.

Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.

For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.

by Bruce Peter on Jan 27, 2012 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

A lone voice of agreement

with your interpretation to the reaction regarding Cammi’s trade.

I too found it reactionary and perhaps less though out and anaylsed than the regular level of discourse offered here.

by subdoxastic on Jan 27, 2012 9:50 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m okay with that, since the focus of my piece specifically was about emotion anyways (with a healthy amount of tongue in cheek). I also felt the team was acting emotionally instead of rationally, and still believe they were. I can’t come up with a rational explanation for trading away an offensive winger who criticized the team the previous day mid-game when you’re down a goal for a player that is suspended, but that’s just me. It was hard to react seriously to the trade, to be honest. I don’t know if I’ll ever be able to analyze that trade in a normal fashion because of how it unfolded, and I haven’t attempted to judge it based on the actual pieces moved and if it was a win, lose or draw for the team.

Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.

For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.

by Bruce Peter on Jan 27, 2012 10:52 AM EST up reply actions  

understandable

all this to say, that I wasn’t referencing you alone when I commented above— there were lots of people who were quite put-out/discombobulated.

In fact, my gripe probably has less to do with you than you might originally suppose, b/c people were quoting Wilson selectively. I’m by no means a google expert, but within minutes of the confirmation of the announcement I was able to find commentary based on statistical analysis showing Bourque at both tails (good 3-4 years ago, bad the most recent two years).

Needless to say, mixed results should engender caution making doomsday predictions.

But then I’m a fellow who’s more likely to underreact (not a good thing either) when presented with confusing, disheartening news.

Regardless, you guys deserve my respect for providing me an excellent place to think and discuss all things Habs (agree or no). In fact, the output of you guys in recent weeks has meant it hasn’t been all that difficult for me to stick to my vow never to visit HIO again (after Hickey’s execrable column).

Peace

by subdoxastic on Jan 27, 2012 12:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Wilson’s comments immediately post-trade were unequivocal about Bourque, though. I mean: “Make no mistake, Bourque was a liability and his contract was an albatross as a result.” ( http://flamesnation.ca/2012/1/13/cammalleri-trade-implications ) Hard to be clearer than that.

It was logical to view the trade in light of the player’s most recent performance.

by MathMan on Jan 27, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

“Bourque was a liability and his contract was an albatross as a result."

The same thing could have been said about Cammi. Many trades happen these days because a player just isn’t working out anymore with the team. A lot of people were harping on how it was classless of the team to trade Cammi mid-game. There was an explanation why it was done when it was done, something to do with Bourque being able to come back sooner from his suspension, but I cannot find the article.

by Propwash on Jan 27, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

The big difference is that Cammy was the Habs’ leading scoring chance getter, which wasn’t the case for Bourque. Cammy’s lack of scoring was a matter of circumstance and luck, whereas Bourque’s struggles seemed to be borne by actual weak play.

Dreger explained the timing on TSN. Basically, when the Habs decided to trade Cammy it was too late to scratch him; when they started the trade talk, the player couldn’t be currently playing so he was pulled out of the game; the trade lasted long enough that the league agreed to adjourn it until the start of the Calgary game, so that Bourque could burn a game off his suspension.

One is still left to wonder why Cammy played at all though.

by MathMan on Jan 27, 2012 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

This was written the next day.

The comments I was referring to were those written within the first few hours of the trade. Any one googling at that time could find ammunition for either position.

by subdoxastic on Jan 27, 2012 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Would it really have made sense to judge Bourque on his level of play of two years ago, and dismiss or ignore the subsequent comments that talked about a sharp decline?

by MathMan on Jan 27, 2012 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

A balance

is what I’d expect from a group of passionate but reasoned folks who generally provide balance and insight in spades.

It’s that balance that explains why signing Pleks to 6 million a year is a good idea.

Or that, you know, Gomez might not actually be a sign of the coming apocalypse.

Maybe something like, “His two most recent years were terrible according to Wilson, but he was a bit of a microstats darling for the two years before that when paired with Langkow. Is Plekanec better than Langkow? Let’s see how this works out” (and now I’m paraphrasing my own self!:) )

by subdoxastic on Jan 27, 2012 1:25 PM EST reply actions  

Well, Pleks is only making 5 million. ;)

by MathMan on Jan 27, 2012 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

If the line is going to be Gomez-Plekanec-Bourque, I don’t see how Bourque will not find success.

Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.

For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.

by Bruce Peter on Jan 27, 2012 1:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree

However at the time I first wrote that, Gomez was still out and the whole Pleks/Gomez thing hadn’t come along yet.

I guess we’ve no choice but to wonder forever what Pleks/Gomez/Cammi might have done

by subdoxastic on Jan 27, 2012 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

damn, you’re right!

And the substance of your correction has put me in a better mood!

by subdoxastic on Jan 27, 2012 1:32 PM EST reply actions  

Ok, now that that one has been fleshed out, I would really, really, really like to dissect every quantum iota of minutiae that comprised the ASG draft last night.

I’ll start.

Did you notice how when Jim Duthie was talking to Tim Thomas, he turned his head left about, oh say, 10 degrees when Thomas paused to gather his thoughts, then raised the microphone just a hair less than 1.5 cm? Does anyone agree this may reflect Duthie’s unspoken concern that the Kovalchuk clause was only a temporary attachment to the CBA and, given concern about ongoing cap circumvention, that is was a slight to Mike Milbury’s tenure as GM of the Islanders?

by JD__ on Jan 27, 2012 2:14 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

I think that you’re extrapolating a lot considering that he didn’t even raise it to 1.5 cm (close doesn’t count). I think it was on the contrary a clear commentary and rebuke to the French media (remember the draft occured in Quebec) and their rhetoric on Randy Cunneyworth, and an obvious indictment of Geoff Molson’s apology letter.

by MathMan on Jan 27, 2012 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting. The only thing that’s throwing me off is Duthie scratched the side of his nose at the end.

The worst part? This type of conversation is actually taking place all over the Intraternetwebz.

by JD__ on Jan 27, 2012 5:56 PM EST up reply actions  

The nose scratch was a subtle sign that he fully supports Patrick Roy as the next head coach of the Habs. Whether that’s for ratings reasons is unclear.

Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire

by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 27, 2012 6:39 PM EST up reply actions  

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