January Podcast: The EOTP Crew Talks Habs
by Kevin van Steendelaar on Jan 19, 2012 6:00 AM EST
in Opinions and other Habs links
Email
Print
The gang at EOTP got together Tuesday night for a good 47 minute discussion on the recent events surrounding the Montreal Canadiens.
Andrew, Chris, Bruce, Stephan and myself looked at the gong show surrounding the Mike Cammalleri deal, the Habs coaching changes, Carey Price's next contract and where this team is headed, as the second half of the NHL season is under way.
A reminder this was recorded prior to the Canadiens game last night against the Washington Capitals, not that it makes a difference.
58 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
To Andrew’s point in the podcast about Eller being placed in a position he is not ready for and then being punished for not being ready for it.
Under Jacques Martin the general consensus is that he was bad for young players, which is absurd. Good coaches place players in a position to succeed. He made sure to shelter Eller from elite competition and use his skills to help the Canadiens win games.
Eller under Martin (fenwick score close)
Goals
+10/-7
Shots
+93/-106
Misses
+56/-34
Fenwick % of .520
Under Cunneyworth
Goals
+5/-9
Shots
+32/-56
Misses
+16/-26
Fenwick of .368
Yet the general fan perception is highlighed by one game in which Eller scored 4 goals. Then the narrative becomes Cunneyworth has been good for his development by moving him into the top line center role.
This is clear proof that Martin was not the dolt that fans (who really know nothing about hockey) thought he was and was actually adept at matching lines and exploiting matchups. Knowing this makes this all the more frustrating and I want to take the pill that brings me back to the ignorance is bliss phase.
If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33
by Chris Boyle on Jan 19, 2012 10:57 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Was it the red pill or the blue one? I can’t remember. Honestly those stats are shocking but unsurprising considering what Cunneyworth is asking Eller to do. I don’t understand why he’s doing it.
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire
by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 19, 2012 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
The only hope at this point is that Eller can play really good on the road when he is matched up against 2-3 lines and Cunneyworth can end up putting 2+2 together…with 5 games left in the season maybe.
by Statsfanatic81 on Jan 19, 2012 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
I’m just hoping Eller doesn’t lose his confidence and work ethic. Love that kid.
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire
by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 20, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
I just don’t get it. You highlight a bunch of things you guys all like to chat about, then again slam fans? Why do you have a blog?? Why not sit in your dorm room or wherever and bash whoever you like?? And this mystical fan/media you reference in almost every post/ game thread? Not every fan who doesn’t base a comment in stat speak has their head up their butt. But.. obviously… you are the almighty.
by Cruisin4aBruisin on Jan 19, 2012 12:11 PM EST reply actions
Are you back complaining again? What is this, a car crash? You can’t take your eyes away?
If something is so upsetting to you, then look away. You come on here and judge us for judging, then you judge our judgements. Your complaints about it will not change any of our outlook anymore than you are willing to move your stance on what our flaws are.
If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33
by Chris Boyle on Jan 19, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
There is one thing I have to say. And here, I’m not answering to or for Cruisin, neither am I adressing Chris’s answer. But I add this as a reply because this exchange made me think about this. Yeah, it’s a rant.
I think the appeal of this blog and mine have been, over the last months if not years, the difference in tone as much if not more than the actual thesis discussed (and for this blog, it thus harkens back to the considerable work done by Robert, who isn’t exactly a stats geek but whose historical work alone is flat out outstanding; seriously folks, take a walk in the archives and trough the sidebars). You go to HIO or RDS or Cyberpresse and the general vibe about the team has been, over the last season +, overwhelmingly negative. A great many fans saw the cognitive dissonance between the ocean of bile on one side and, on the other side, a team that wasn’t The Dynasty™ but was actually pretty good and was actually shoving in enough promising young players to have us hope they could get to the next step and be a top-tier unit.
And then, according to the stuff we track (here and me at my blog, at least) shit hit the fan. Big. Effin. Time. Just go back at the “Habs at the quarter pole” review and the comments below. It’s a fact that the lead content providers and commenters of this blog (and I count myself among those) have been grousing pretty harshly over the last month. And rightfully so. And in this web 2.0 era, criticizing MSM content isn’t just about journalists, it’s about “commentariat” in general, those thousands upon thousands of blogposts, comments and whatnot. Cutting the branch you are sitting on, I know.
But there it is: Gauthier panicked, shitcanned a perfectly fine coach and sent a perfectly fine team into the ditch right when the season was in play and now we have to look up to the Oilers blogs not for tips on statistical analysis but for tips on what it is you are supposed to write about when your team has gone belly up and then sank and is now rotting at the bottom of the fishtank.
I don’t think we’ll keep this kind of tone up for long, I mean we are all here because we just don’t use bile as a creative fuel (altough, even if it doesn’t mean a damn in the grand scheme of things, Gauthier has it coming, oh does he ever…).
It’s just that it’s all so freaking unsettling. I guess we all want to believe Randy is thinking outside the box and building a brave new club. But, to quote our dear and good friends in the MSM, “it’s a results oriented business”, and RC/Gauthier aren’t exactly turning things around. But I know this: if Randy really is onto something, we’ll find it out and gladly eat crow if needed. I know I’d like nothing better than saying “I was wrong about Randy, I mean look at what he did, because of it now we win all the time!” and explaining in great details how I was wrong about him.
by Olivier on Jan 19, 2012 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Being wrong about RC would be really nice.
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire
by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 19, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
I am hoping for the WWE ending. It was a whole ruse to get the #1 pick.
Martin comes out from behind the Canadiens backdrop, chair shot to Cunneyworth’s head and Gauthier, Gainey and Martin hold each others hands in the air as Mike Boone screams “Martin was behind it all along”.
We can dream.
If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33
And then Lars Eller gives Cunneyworth the people’s elbow?
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire
by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 19, 2012 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
Cammalleri shows up and chair shots Bourque and shakes hands with Francois Gagnon and laugh at the rest of the Montreal media for falling for the ruse.
If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33
I need to see this.
Cap it off with Price peeling off his face like Mission Impossible and it’s Jose Theodore or something insane.
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire
by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 19, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
Patrick Roy comes out of the back room like Hulk Hogan and tells everybody he has been planning this since he was traded out of town in 1995. He then brings out Lemaire, Robinson, Muller and Carbonneau and they all start laying the boots to Cunneyworth and Bourque as they lie on the ground.
If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33
Mike Keane comes out of the crowd and tombstones Houle.
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire
by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 19, 2012 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
You guys can dream of Cammy’s return all you want, but if this is going WWE, that Bourque fella looks like he knows how to put a beatdown on people.
A Bourque-Roy cagematch would be pretty cool.
Actually, if Roy coaches the team next season, we may actually see this!
Too true!
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire
by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 20, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
100% correct. I don’t discredit anything you’ve said there Olivier.
The comments I have made about elitism refer to the constant negative slant, directly negative attitude towards those who don’t care/ don’t know stats. Yes Mathman brings about points for the last year or so about ’the age of stats in hockey being paramount…the new wave of thinking" and how people should get on board. All very well put and likely the evolution of looking at hockey will go this way.
I don’t knock the knowledge, time, consideration, mathematical equations that people use to find the stats, nor anyone’s attraction to this. I’m not judging anyone by this. Anyone can like anything.
The points below about Robert, I 100% agree with. He was a moderator, one that efficiently and appreciatively attended to ‘all fans points of view". Regardless of stats or emotional fan. You never saw him isolate a large portion of the fan base who came to this site as ’fans who know nothing’. We all see something. Not always the same thing, but we see things.
The predictability of the game of hockey does nothing for the fan. Watching a game of hockey and keeping all the stats that you can think of does not attract every fan. So, when those people report what they see, make it a point to comment on what they see with their own eyes, and for you to disagree based on what the stats say is really pointless. Stats aren’t meant to look at every single possible movement of a player and come up with a result for the game. They speak of tendencies… not absolutes. Why would anyone be a fan, if stats meant the only thing? If stats on Gomez were absolute but there still was evidence of his lack of back checking where does the truth lie about his ability??
I don’t discredit the merits of stats or those who believe in them, but I hardly see point in ripping ‘joe fan’ who only joined this blog for the fun of it, to have a say, to hear different perspectives,…. not always ones I agree with, but I’m flexible. But narrative apparently has no place in sport any more? You think coaches and player agents are using stats every conversation they have with a player ?? Your corsi is down this week…. make sure you whatever…
The team is in a pit…. Corsi and Fenwick won’t be the motivators to get them back on track… that’s my point.
And yes Chris sometimes this place is like a car wreck. Well done.
by Cruisin4aBruisin on Jan 19, 2012 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
It’s funny that you constantly whine about elitism here, because this is one of the very few websites that attempts to explain advanced stats to anyone and everyone who comes around.
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire
by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 20, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
Andrew, it isn’t the education that’s being peddled that’s the issue. Its the manner in which it is done.
by Cruisin4aBruisin on Jan 20, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
You’re full of it man. Find another site that has more patience in explaining concepts than this one. You won’t. Most people would see the amount of complaining you do here about tone and some of your own insults towards the people who run this site and block you, yet you complain about the TONE in which we calmly explain concepts to you so that you can understand the way we come to the conclusions we do.
How often this season have you engaged someone in intelligent conversation about hockey on this site? Almost all your comments are complaints about over-reliance on stats or tone, without ever crafting an argument as to how stats are being over-relied on or what we’re missing.
I’m not sure what you want out of this site, but it’s not under your control.
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire
by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 20, 2012 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
Over relied on in this site. Yes. On the whole, likely not. No it definitely is not something I control, wouldn’t want that responsibility. But this is a site that was set up for perspective sharing, not bashing someone for their denial of thinking stats are a religion to blindly be worshipped, as when despite numbers making the case for someone to be good, positive opportunity creator- aren’t reflected in any manner when they are on the ice.
What was here. That’s what I would like. But obviously, perspective sharing isn’t something you are open to as a group, but rather would like to sit around and stroke each other’s egos for lack of better things to do. You aren’t much better than the media you think creates crap about the team.
by Cruisin4aBruisin on Jan 20, 2012 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, when people create massive strawman arguments like this one that have no baring on reality, they usually get bashed.
This response you’ve given is basically a canned response by anyone ignorant of what we’re talking about and unwilling to try to learn.
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire
by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 20, 2012 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
The funny thing is he is always calling me out for some reason, yet I have stated a million times on this site that I believe you need the perspective of watching the games + microstats to come to a definitive conclusion.
If I believed in stats alone wouldn’t my conclusion be that Tim Thomas is the greatest goaltender in the NHL?
If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33
Yeah that confuses me also.
The whole thing is, “watch the games” is the biggest strawman in hockey. It’s complete garbage that assumes anyone who cares to actually do research doesn’t bother actually looking at the games he’s supposedly researching.
It’s like telling a botanist that he doesn’t REALLY understand plants because he doesn’t garden.
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire
by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 20, 2012 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
This fanbase of which...
they speak is not mythical. It exists at a site (perhaps the largest Canadiens’ forum( run by a reporter at a Montreal newpaper. I won’t name the site here but it’s well known — I’m sure you must know of it. The forum’s aim is to generate hits for the advertising revenue that the site accrues. The discussion is therefore often primed to be controversial and sensationalist by the moderators of the forum itself. The site plays to (and gives a ready voice to) the worst in fan extremism. For example, a good many (but admittedly not all) of the fans there:
a) wanted Martin fired a long time ago
b) would trade Gomez and Plekanec for " a bag of pucks"
c) believe a defenseman who plays positionally sound defence but doesn’t hit is a waste of space and oxygen
d) decry microstats as having any insights to offer over watching games and having an “intuitive” knowledge of the game (without any definition of what that might be)
e) favor size and grit over skill — which is a hidden way of rationalizing xenophobia against “soft” European players in favor of " tough, gritty" North American ones.
The contributors here are not elitist. I’m a stats newbie and they have responded to my newbie questions courteously and knowledgably.
by hansolo759 on Jan 19, 2012 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I swear to god someone on this blog predicted this EXACT thing would happen after Budaj won against NYR. Cunneyworth is incredibly stupid.
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire
by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 19, 2012 1:41 PM EST reply actions
A whole bunch of things we used to say were dumb but had no actual data point on are now being done before our very eyes, while we are dutifully collecting and storing pretty important amounts of data about what’s happenning.
It’s unpleasant right now, but there are a bunch of things we’ll be able to prove/disprove/test in the coming weeks/months.
Never let a good crisis go to waste, eh?
(sob)
Always looking on the bright side
I guess it’s all in the name of science!
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire
by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 19, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
I think you know that I’m not going to do Randy any favors, but all I’m reading is that the coach is looking at the two on two and not sure which goalie to use in which game yet. What am I missing that’s incredibly stupid?
Seemed to me that Cunneyworth is fretting about who to start because Budaj won a game, and as predicted he’ll start wondering which goalie gives a better chance to win. But maybe I’m looking too far ahead.
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire
by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 19, 2012 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
He does, but I’m thinking 1/5 games, not 1/2. You know? Like by no means should Budaj get back to back starts.
Co-editor of Eyes on the Prize
Follow me on twitter: http://twitter.com/andrewberkshire
by Andrew Berkshire on Jan 20, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
Since we’re talking about our mythical Montreal media. My favorite story of the last week is how, after the centennial match, every outlet was singing the praises of Cammalleri and talking about how great it was to have a guy on the team who cared about the history of the franchise and wanted to meet the former greats. What a role model and a leader he was! Now that Cammy is gone the exact same story is presented as an example of his disingenuousness and self-centeredness as he apparently looked like a politician campaigning for office and everyone was put off by it.
Either he was a slimy politician in 2009 and everyone neglected mention it then or it’s just post facto reinterpretation of past events like we see so often.
by Hypnotoad on Jan 19, 2012 3:49 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Exactly like Price and his calmness.
When they win it is integral to his character and allows him to focus and not panic. When they lose he is aloof and doesn’t care.
If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33
by Chris Boyle on Jan 19, 2012 6:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm Not A Stats Guy..
if stats are so important play Strat-O-Matic Hockey & save us a lot of angst. Martin had them playing dull hockey, check, check, check, hope Price holds you in a game & maybe get a win. Montreal was too physically small to play that style & not get a slew of injuries. That works in the playoffs where it’s all tight checking but over a long season you’re going to break down. Martin didn’t even have a counter attacking style to take advantage of their speed. Gauthier is a moron, if he fired Martin with Cunnyworth as his option then obviously he was throwing in the towel. I think he should have brought back Guy Carbonneau & tied to salvage the season.
Nothing Is Fool proof if you have the right fools.
Carbonneau was a terrible coach, worse than Cunneyworth. We whine about Cunneyworth’s personnel assignations, but at least he looks like he understands it’s important and tries and just does it wrong. Carbonneau did things that were outright insane.
In 230 games with the Canadiens, Carbonneau was 124-83-23.
2008-2009, the Canadiens finished first in the East with a 47-25-10 record, but lost the playoffs in the second round to Philadelphia. Carbonneau was a finalist for the Jack Adams Trophy as coach of the year.
I’d take that “insanity” any day.
Nothing Is Fool proof if you have the right fools.
by GiantsCauseway on Jan 20, 2012 9:41 AM EST up reply actions
Martin’s style had them poised for success the minute the roster was healthy again, and required much less from Price than wins under Cunneyworth do.
by Hunter Durfee on Jan 19, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
Montreal was too physically small to play that style & not get a slew of injuries.
The problem with this generalization is that the injuries that crippled Montreal were not wear and tear or the result of small players getting hurt because of a grind.
Markov’s first injury was a lacerated tendon. The other two were knee injuries, not the result of a small player not being able to handle the physical grind.
If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33
by Chris Boyle on Jan 20, 2012 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
So are you a fan.. or just a stats guy? You have favorites that aren’t supported by positive stats .. irrational thoughts of having a player for the sake of having him in a Habs uni? Or is hockey simply a byproduct to the numbers?
I know a Devils fan for over 25 yrs who hated every year they did their trap. Of course he liked the wins, but, at a point entertainment is part of the attraction. I can say seeing Emelin hammer someone gives me more pleasure than seeing Gomez play his position for a solid shift.
by Cruisin4aBruisin on Jan 19, 2012 7:49 PM EST reply actions
I want the Habs to win. Everything else is secondary.
If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33
by Chris Boyle on Jan 19, 2012 9:30 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
5 on 5 chance chart for the Habs:
Chances data from the inestimable Olivier, who deserves all the credit, I just punched his numbers in a spreadsheet.
Cyan bar: Pearn firing.
Red bar: Martin firing
Blue bar: Cammy for Bourque trade
Grey zones: Gomez injuries
Less stark than I expected. Montreal, though, was a really good team before the second Gomez injury. That is what killed the Habs, more than the Cunneyworth firing really, although the latter didn’t help.
They’ve been on an upswing lately, buoyed by the game against Tampa and score effects in the Winnipeg and Washington shutouts.
I looked at that today too. It would be nice to see that chart without the score effects.
If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33
by Chris Boyle on Jan 19, 2012 9:29 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I am just saying it would be nice to have the data 5v5 close. To see how many extra chances are creating while trailing 3-0.
If you want 30 tweets a day, don't follow me. @ChrisBoyle33
by Chris Boyle on Jan 20, 2012 12:50 AM EST up reply actions
Wow that’s crazy. We can’t also forget that we also lost Gionta and Moen at the same time as Gomez during his second injury. That might explain why we struggled more then than during his first one since both are also good defensive players.
by Statsfanatic81 on Jan 19, 2012 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, the one that includes all chances (ie special teams) might be even more telling:
Notice the dip right at the red line and the precipitous drop at the beginning of that second grey area.
Notice also how the team doesn’t spend much time below 0, and compare to the 5-on-5 chart above. The team actually has very strong special teams. The PP conversion rate is just a ludicrous joke.
A Habs’ shot is more likely to go in at even strength than on the power play. It’s mind boggling and the percentages aren’t even close. 6.7% shooting on the PP vs 8.6% shooting at even strength. No other team since behind the net started to keeping track in 2007-08 has a higher shooting percentage at even strength than on the PP. The closest is San Jose who is 7.8% in both situations this year.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Habs Eyes On The Prize
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
