Habs Top 25 Under 25: #2 P.K. Subban
What is there left to say about P.K. Subban? A year ago Subban surprised Habs fans by seamlessly transitioning from the AHL to the NHL playoffs where he was a key asset in ousting the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins, especially after Andrei Markov went down. After dominating the AHL and setting a Hamilton Bulldogs record for goals for a defenseman, many were still skeptical about Subban's ability to become a regular in the NHL.
Subban seems to have quelled every doubter he had in a single season. At the beginning of the season, many of his critics were right in that he wasn't responsible defensively and he took far too many risks. For a time it looked like he was in Jacques Martin's doghouse for good, but after sitting a few games in November, Subban stepped up big time as the Montreal Canadiens lost both Andrei Markov and Josh Gorges.
While Subban struggled to adapt to NHL defense, his offense also suffered. He only registered 11 points in his first 33 NHL games, along with just 2 goals. Once given a heavier workload and unshackled from being paired with Alexandre Picard; Subban exploded with 12 goals and 27 points in the last 44 games. Over that time he also joined Hal Gill on the top pairing on the penalty kill. A daunting task for a rookie to begin with, made even more challenging by the fact that Montreal spent more time on the penalty kill than any team in the league. What's most surprising about Subban's season is that while he was excellent offensively, his defense is what truly stood out.
After the trade for James Wisniewski, Subban was relied on by Jacques Martin to face the top lines of other teams every night as Roman Hamrlik and Wisniewski mopped up the secondary match-ups. While facing that high end competition Subban managed to put up the 8th best relative Corsi among defensemen who played 60+ games. Impressively Subban's Corsi numbers are padded by his own shot total, also 8th among defensemen. The numbers suggest that while Subban was on the ice, the Canadiens had possession of the puck far more often than their opponents at even strength.
After setting a rookie record in the AHL Subban nearly matched the Habs goalscoring record for rookie defenseman as well. In the end Subban fell 1 goal short of Guy Lapointe's 15 goal rookie season, but to edge so close to one of the all time greats is an indicator that we have one heck of a goal scorer on our hands. Only 5 defensemen managed outscore Subban this the NHL last season, one of whom is perennial all-star and certain first ballot hall-of-famer Nicklas Lidstrom.
To put Subban's goal totals in context; only one rookie defenseman has outscored Subban in the last 13 seasons, and that was Dion Phaneuf, who at the time was considered a phenom.
STRENGTHS: Subban is a star in the making, maybe even a super-star. Right now the sky is the limit. His instincts in all three zones are elite. Subban's hockey IQ might actually be his greatest strength. The speed at which he absorbs knowledge or instruction from his coaches or Hal Gill is exceptional.
Within 50 NHL games (including playoffs) Subban went from an offensive minded, defensive risk; playing on the 3rd pairing, to a clear cut #1 defenseman who's able to carry inferior partners and make them look good while they play above their depth. No offense meant to Gill, but he's not a top pairing defenseman.
Over this same time frame Subban has managed to adopt the greatest strengths of Gill's game in defensive positioning and stick checking.
Back in May, Chris Boucher illustrated the growth in Subban's game in this report. Subban had the highest number of positive events per minute played during the playoffs among defensemen, and the second best risk/reward rating next to James Wisniewski, who played against weaker competition. Subban also played significantly more minutes than any other Habs player in the series against Boston.
Subban's bread and butter however is his one-timer. If Subban gets a crisp pass at the top of the left circle, it's in the back of the net. Former Hab Mike Johnson of TSN remarked during the year that only a handful of guys in the NHL can one-time the passes that P.K. launches into the mesh. And his penchant for scoring those goals at crucial times is something to marvel at, just ask Tim Thomas:
P.K. Subban ties game late in 3rd 4/27/11 (via NHLVideo)
He is far from a one trick pony however as he has a dangerous wrist shot and seems to be able to out-wait defenders and force them into mistakes to get his shots on net.
Subban is also an elite level skater. His top speed isn't quite up there with Matthew Lombardi or Andrew Cogliano, but his explosiveness is frankly, unbelievable. His agility in changing speeds allows him to blow by players with ease, and he gets back into plays to cover up his rare mistakes more often than not.
I would also argue that Subban's ability to get other players off of their games is a big strength. Whether through bone rattling, entirely legal checks or chirping; Subban became one of the most hated players in the NHL last season. For a look at some of Subban's strengths, check out the following video.
PK Subban - How Ya Like Me Now? (via cmrose16)
WEAKNESSES: There are obvious weaknesses in Subban's game but they're so minor and present in the games of all players that they are hardly worth mentioning. During last season in the NHL, in the AHL the year before and in junior before that, Subban had the reputation for being very undisciplined. Towards the end of last year however, especially during the playoffs, Subban really held himself in check. Not retaliating or engaging with Bruins players outside of the whistles seemed to drive them even crazier than the chirping he did during the season. After taking 124 PIM in 77 games during the season, he only took one penalty (in game 2) in the entire 7 game series vs Boston.
Subban has a tendency to play on the riskier side of the puck, taking chances that most defenders wouldn't. Fortunately he has the instincts, skill and speed to make up for it when those risks turn out bad.
While Subban's scoring level was fantastic last season, his assist total wasn't up to par with his skill level. It's possible that Subban's numbers may have suffered because of Montreal's lack of offense last season, but more effective playmaking will be expected of him this season with the loss of Wisniewski.
Perhaps the only major weakness in Subban's game at the moment is that he takes himself out of the play too often while going for the big hit. It's a familiar flaw for Habs fans as we saw Mike Komisarek do it all the time and get victimized. While we all love the big hits, Subban may have to be more careful in his picking his spots in the future.
FUTURE: Big things are expected of Subban next season. With the departure of Hamrlik and the uncertain stability of Andrei Markov and Josh Gorges' knees he has no room for a sophomore jinx. Subban also won't be given the grace period of 30+ games this season to get the offense going. Now that he's built himself up to be a fan favourite, the expectations will be astronomical and he has to back it up. With Markov likely back in the lineup to start the season, Subban won't be thrust into the #1 defenseman role, so it is possible that more production will be expected out of him at even strength as he either gets placed against weaker competition than last year, or gets paired with Markov to form an elite pairing instead of Gill to form a good one..
It's hard to imagine Subban not becoming a perennial all-star in the NHL, possibly even competing for the Norris Trophy within a couple of years. He's the kind of talent that the Canadiens haven't had in my lifetime outside of the goal crease, and his personality is a draw that any hockey market would envy. The obvious friendship between Subban and Carey Price is infectious. With these two young stars in the lineup it finally looks like the Canadiens are headed in the right direction after 17 seasons of frustration.
P.K Subban and Carey Price "Triple-Low 5" (via hockeykid2738)
| #3: Max Pacioretty | #2: P.K. Subban |
#1: Carey Price |
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Holy crap look at that spike. Wow.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s about when Gorges went down.
Weird double spike there around 60 games… must have played some elite teams in that stretch.
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I think a few other things can be looked at with these: there was a drop around the time guys like Spacek and even Sopel were hurt, but when they came back it started to recover a bit, especially Subban at the end of the year.
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I think that sudden drop in corsi corresponds with when Pacioretty went out around the 60th game of the year.
And forget just the Habs, how many guys in the league come in and destroy the softs then proceed to form a solid shutdown pair on his own talents? I’m pretty sure Tyler Myers didn’t get used as a primary shutdown guy in his rookie year.
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 2, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
On the other hand, you can see how the team dipped in the last 10-15 games. Injuries, weak back-end… Too bad, because for the middle part of the season, they had a solid run at puck possession.
It really leads to a lot of “what if’s” when you look at last year’s team. Battling the cup champs so closely, in possibly the closest series since the lockout, one of those injured guys could have turned the tide.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Whats just as impressive is how much easier everyone else’s job suddenly became.
How do you get the game by game data Oliver? Is it from your own tracking or somewhere else?
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 2, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I get my data from blood, sweat and tears :).
Mostly, I parse the play by play and time on ice sheets. The qualcomp indexes I build are based on data published by Gabriel Desjardin on behindthenet.ca, but I’ll eventually get around incorporating it in my own scripts. But, because I’m not a programmer, the whole ordeal is insanely time-consuming.
But I’m getting to a point where I get some pretty cool data sets. Here, straight from my last post on Erik Cole, the same graph for Cole’s qualcomp WOWY with Staal (Carolina’s bottom of the lineup looks pretty crappy):
Well we appreciate your blood, sweat and tears!
That data makes it look like Carolina might miss Cole a lot more than they think. Crazy how good he is with Staal.
In looking at the Qualcomp data while writing this article, I was amazed to see that Lidstrom at 40 last year continued to have the highest Qualcomp score among defensemen in the NHL. He suffered a bit in the +/- category for the first time, but man, what a stud defenseman.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Carolina already had problems finding a good winger to play with Staal and Cole, experimenting with Samsonov and Stillman. They’d have a much harder time filling that line now. They need Staal to play hard minutes to free up Skinner’s line and they don’t have an abundance of hard minute wingers. Combined with ridiculous injury luck last season and a poor possesion game, I’m not bullish on Carolina next year.
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 2, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s very possible that we see a decline in Skinner’s numbers next year as he’s forced to shoulder higher competition.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
On thing quality of competition and corsi/rel corsi stats do really well in comparison to tradiional ones is identify who the quality defenseman are. The quickest way to compile an evidence based list of top level defenseman is to take the best relCorsi/Corsi defensemen who face decent levels of competition then take the list of of high level of competition defensemen with a decent relCorsi. Then use common sense to take out anyone like Boychuk who is obviously being carried by Chara (r in retrospect, Komisarek in 07-08) and anyone taking obscene amounts of offensive faceoffs like Byfuglin.
Guys who are consensus top level players jump out by this method immediately, be they Chara, Keith, Lidstrom, Weber and Suter etc. And you can immediately see how young guys like Doughty, Myers and Subban are worth the hype.
Number one defensemen are almost by definition generalists so you don’t run into nearly the kind of pitfalls by this method as you do with forwards, who are a lot more line dependent and tend to be more specialized.
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 2, 2011 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Byfuglien really was an outlier this year, and he got a fat contract for it. Obviously Atlanta was a poorly run team, but I’m really hoping Winnipeg doesn’t pick up where they left off. These rumours of trading Bogosian are insanity, although if it’s to the Habs it sounds good to me.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions
They placed him in a heavily offensive role with their best defenseman in Enstrom so good things happened. Byfuglien has good offensive skills so it wasn’t necessarily unsustainable but they were killing their other pairings to make it happen. Its a bit like if Montreal played Markov and Weber (or maybe MAB) in a purely offensive role. Do that and your going to put the other pairings in a muderously difficult situation.
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 2, 2011 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Could you imagine a Markov-Subban pairing with 60+% o-zone faceoffs and a low qualcomp? It would be murder on the other pairings but they’d probably be in the 70-80 point range.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Ha, you don’t say?
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with Andrew, certainly appreciate the time you put into breaking all of this down, Olivier. Charts like these really show how much a player’s performance contributes to a team, even if he’s off the score-sheet where most MSM;s use to critique.
Lidstrom is as timeless as they come for NHL rearguards. If he really wanted to, he could play well into his forties. By signing one-year contracts in the last two years, though, he’s one of these guys who if he feels his abilities decline, even the slightest, he will pack it in.
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by Kevin van Steendelaar on Sep 2, 2011 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
The beauty of having Price and Subban at the top of our list is that they are both good enough to legitimately be classified as true building blocks. No team can ever win a Cup without having two or three core players who excel at the game.
You might say that we lucked into getting Price when we drew the 5th spot in the lottery. But even with that good fortune, the team still had to be sharp enough to select Price. I can only imagine where we would be if our pick had of been Gilbert Brule. Or if Minnesota had passed on Pouliot.
Grabbing PK Subban in the middle of the 2nd round is a true homerun. It’s this type of move that can help turn a team around (Paul Stastny, Shea Weber, Brad RIchards) by getting an elite player from “out of the blue”. It’s one thing to select Kane/Toews or Stamkos/Hedman, those are basically no-brainer moves. It’s quite another to grab a gem like Subban. It more than makes up for David Fischer.
Some fans worry that Subban may suffer the sophomore jinx. He obviously won’t be able to surprise everyone in the league the way he did last year. But I think having Markov back full time might be a blessing in disguise for Subban. Less pressure and limelight could mean greater production. The fact that Subban finished the 2nd half of season 11/15/26 also bodes well.
It’s been 18 years since we last won a Cup. The team has basically been adrift ever since. In that time period, the Habs have drafted only two real quality players – Saku Koivu (‘93) and Andrei Markov (’98). The arrival of Price (‘05) and Subban (’07) gives the team a solid foundation for a true run at the Cup during the next few years.
It would be nice to have a building block up front but I think I already have looked after that matter. On July 1st, Scott Gomez will be cut adrift (trade/waivers/Hamilton) to make room for my new UFA, Zach Parise:-)
If Parise does not re-up long term in Jersey, I have to think we’ll have to at least send our 1st rounder next year to Jersey for negotiation rights to land him.
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I would add Plekanec to your list of quality players drafted by Montreal. And in spite of his attitude and annoying habits Ribeiro probably also fits that description.
Going after Parise would be huge. If Eller can grow into a top 6 role this season and Gomez becomes expendable, that would be a brilliant move for Gauthier. Parise is one of my favourite players in the league, him sinking one of my fantasy teams last year notwithstanding.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Grabovski as well…. he’s turned into a heck of a player outside the organization. If we had Plekanec and Grabovski as our top 2 centres… Eller might never need to become a top 6 forward.
I still think our 1998 draft was one of the best you’ll find, and it contained a full out first round bust! Chouinard in the 1st, but Ribeiro, Beauchemin, Markov and Ryder afterwards. And Chouinard at least got traded at a young enough age that he was still worth a 2nd rounder that became Lapierre. Proof that even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while, I suppose, considering it was the Houle era.
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Andrew & Bruce – My point was concerning players who really made a difference and could be counted as being in the upper echelon of the NHL. Your point about Pleks has some merit but I tend to consider him to be a good but not great player. I’m sure people would debate that thought and it might also be a case of clearing defining what I’m trying to say in terms of building blocks.
As for Parise, I was trying to just stir the pot a bit. However, if Gomez and AK46 move on, there would certainly be enough coin kicking around to sign Parise as well as the two amigos. If it costs us our 2012 1st pick then so be it.
Just think, Price, Subban/Markov and Parise/Pleks/MaxPac/Cammy. Not a bad core to build around. Not to mention that some supporting parts are already built in – Gionta, Cole and Gorges.
To be honest I’m not sold on Grabovski as a first liner yet. He had a fantastic year with Toronto and has really seemed to mature, but I think a lot of it was just that he was in the right situation. Could he put up those numbers on a better team? I don’t know. I still think that of the three Belorussians that we kept the best player. Grabovski is really talented, but he’s also just over a year younger than Plekanec.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s done fairly well against second line comps on even strength but never either been put in a heavy power on power situation or had humongous point totals in a soft matchup role that I’d associate with a true first liner. He’s something of a tweener, about at the level of Gomez in an average season.
I think its fair to say that there is a very good chance last year will end up being the best in his career. Not that I’m expecting a huge drop off, just not quite so good.
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 2, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I can see him having a better year by virtue of Kulemin getting better because in all honesty I think he’s Toronto’s best player. But I think Clarke MacArthur is in for a big disappointment year because he’s never been that good before.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Kulemin’s improvement will basically just cover his over-performance last season. And while Grabrovski’s point total may be better some other year, I think he’s hit his peak as a player in of himself. Much like I wouldn’t expect Plekanec or Cammaleri to be fundamentally better players than they are now.
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 2, 2011 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that Grabovski has essentially peaked. Usually by 27 all you can bet on for improvement is a good luck year or better linemates.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Since the graphic isn’t up yet, I’ll just say this: P.K.’s highest rank was #1, lowest was #2. No one was weird in their voting on this one. :)
And it should be noted that Chris Boyle did the graphics for these articles, so big thanks to him.
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Chris did a great job there.
My vote between 1 and 2 was almost a coin flip.
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 2, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed, Chris did a great job with the graphics. Can’t wait to see what he’s cooked up for Price.
For my vote it came down to experience. I went with Price over Subban because Price has already gone through his bumps and come out on top.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s probably what tipped it for me as well. 4 years in the spot light gives a much better idea of Price compared to Subban, who despite his minor league dominance, has only played one year in the big leagues. Plus there will be plenty of time for him to be number one on these lists after Price turns 25 ;).
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 2, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
This is true, unless Pacioretty scores 40 this year I’m guessing Subban is #1 next year.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess it’s obvious who didn’t draw the short straw when it came to divvyin’ up the Top 25 Under 25 mandate, Andrew.
The scariest thing about Poindexter Bentley Subban is how absolutely poised he’s been since he hit the ice in the 2009-10 playoffs. Yeah, one expects growin’ pains – and we saw a bit of that in his early play, either sometimes findin’ himself out of position or just plain pissin’ off a couple of teammates – but he has never struck me as even marginally in over his head.
(I suspect Hamr & Soobs won’t be exchangin’ long-distance X-Mas cards this upcomin’ holiday season. I am, however, somewhat intrigued at the prospect of a Soobie end-to-ender the next time Montreal and Washington meet.)
Poindexter’s poise carries over to how he handles all the fabricated controversy that seems to follow him. I won’t even bother gettin’ into the quintuple standard he’s subjected to, cause if Soobs doesn’t give a flyin’ eff, why should I?
It’s like he was destined to be an NHLer long before he was eligible to do so.
Understandably, the only hockey fans who loathe him are fans of other teams. I get that. Even then, they have to grudgingly acknowlege his visceral talent before tossin’ another caveat into the mix. When he scores, I half expect they pound their fist into the other hand, look down, and mutter “Subban!” in the manner of Seinfeld mutterin’ “Newman!”
What’s there not to like about his future in Montreal? The city’s been starved of superstars for far too long. As time progresses, he and Carey and others of their ilk will hopefully restore some of that arrogant, albeit measured strut Patrick Roy brought to the dressin’ room, effectively willin’ the team to success.
SubBANG, baby!
Watching Subban play brings on a feeling that must be similar to the one Washington fan’s had when Oviechken first came into the league. Not that he’s at the same level as a player but the shear joy and exuberance on the ice of a guy with elite talents and a flair for the spectacular obviously having the time of his life living out his dream.
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 2, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s a good comparison in excitement level. You can tell whenever he touches the puck the Bell Centre gets a notch louder, just anticipating something great to happen. It’s fantastic.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Short straw
Well the weaknesses part was pretty hard to come up with, and most of it could apply to any defenseman outside of Lidstrom.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I felt similarly about Pacioretty. There was lots of bad things to say about his previous incarnations but the 10-11 Pacioretty? Incapable of preventing a 6’9" guy from clobbering him, can’t control goaltending luck and can’t (yet) carry a line against the very best opposition are the only things that comes to mind,
Given how strong his underlying numbers were in every category I could find I think he’d have been hyped almost as much as Subban if he had played the entire season in Montreal like he did for those 37 games.
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 2, 2011 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Pacioretty’s growth is borderline unbelievable compared to his first two pro years. I guess you could go with the possibility that he doesn’t regain that form after injury, but after seeing this exchange on twitter I just can’t see Pacioretty playing with fear:
http://twitter.com/MaxPacioretty67/status/104231570369560576
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I almost don’t believe it based on how long its been since a forward has come out of Montreal’s system that good. He was a pretty good 18 and 19 year old so its not completely out of the blue, the big thing was a lack of progress at 20. Its like he saved up 2 years worth of development and recieved it all in one go. Probably because his body and head needed a bunch of time to catch up with the pro-level.
But on the other hand, they’ve produced so many decent players that eventually one should be really good just on shear variance
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 2, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
It really does seem like something clicked in Pacioretty’s brain and he realized that he’s awesome. His shot has really improved from 2009-10 though. I’m not sure if even Cammalleri can score with a wrister as far out as Pacioretty can. His release has just become very deceptive.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
One of my favorite Pacioretty goals was from a sequence where Gill stands up Stamkos who is trying to cut towards the net and forces him to the boards which allows Gomez to come back to strip the puck from him. Gomez streaks up the left side, enters the zone and does a solid impression of a Cammaleri one-knee one-time past Roloson. A great example of the kind of play this team is good at.
Going over Pacioretty’s 14 goals he’s got examples of every type. A whole bunch of plays tight to the net where he muscled for position and beats the goalie in close, a few from speed and shot from the rush and others from making a relatively long shot on net from a cycle play. Basically all the ways to do it as a forward but more power play net plays than we’ve seen in Montreal for a long time.
If Latendresse was smart/coachable he would have realized he could have gotten so many points by playing that role on Montreal where all the other power play weapons are there to support you doing it.
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 2, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
That might be the most intriguing thing about Pacioretty, he scores in all the ways you can imagine. My personal favourite is the wrister from ~50 feet out to score on Thomas in OT.
Latendresse is such a missed opportunity in many ways. I really think he’s a perfect example of being French working against him. So much pressure was put on the team to keep him up that they rushed him, and it got to his head. He wanted top line minutes without earning them. I wonder if he’ll be healthy this year in Minnesota and make us regret trading him even more?
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 2, 2011 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Personally, I thought trading Latendresse for Pouliot was obvious stupidity when it happened. Latendresse was the same age and was a better NHLer than Pouliot was an AHLer. Another silly “attitude” trade that’s been hurting Montreal so much.
If you look at all the high-performing Habs draftees that are performing elsewhere, most of them were shipped out to calls of “good riddance” due to “attitude issues”. Hopefully the Habs have learned their lesson now, and giving SK74 away for nothing was the last.
Looking at the trade from only one side doesn’t make much sense either. It was clear last year that Latendresse had no interest in earning his ice time with the Habs. I got the feeling the year before that he was on the cusp of breaking out as an NHLer, but he didn’t put in the effort. He also asked for a trade. He took advantage when he got to Minnesota, but his exit interview of sorts on RDS showed a very immature man-boy who couldn’t take responsibility for his actions.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 3, 2011 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Lats was actually a pretty dang good player for the Habs, especially for scoring ES goals. I think trying to turn him into Holmstrom did him and the Habs a great disservice.
Holmstrom on ES would be as diserive. Starting to learn how to be Holmstrom on the power play is an excellent career opportunity.
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 5, 2011 5:02 AM EDT up reply actions
As it often is with rookies, his confidence was fragile on his first go-around in the big leagues. He often looked lost. The extended stint in Hamilton was a mental rebuild, always with an eye to how he would maintain his game when the pressure once again ratcheted up.
Hopefully, this new-found fortitude is relatively intact followin’ the injury and ensuin’ layoff.
As far as how the writting assigments got divied up I was really pleased with mine. Pacioretty, Leblanc and Gallagher were guys I had lots to say about, while Tinordi was an interesting case of writing a profile while being a relative detractor.
The only guy I didn’t know much about or have much material on was Nygren and it seems not many do anyway as he was even more off the radar than the usual 4th round pick. But I got to fool around looking for comparable Swedish prospect and try to decypher Swedish hockey websites so I won’t complain about that.
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 2, 2011 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, somehow the guys who weren’t around last year got Subban and Pacioretty. Oh well, can’t complain, I could have rigged the draw if I wanted to!
As the only panelist who valued Subban over Price, I should have had this one! But I did get Beaulieu who I had higher than anyone else as well.
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I got the impression you were also the one or one of the ones that knew Beaulieu the best so it probably worked out well for the overall quality of the articles. I know if got that beat I’d have to really far to heavily on secondary sources for on of the top 5 articles (which should be the stronger ones of the series).
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 2, 2011 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I would’ve put Subban over Price, largely on the basis of position. I believe high-end PMDs are the most impactful players in the game.
If Price is really good next year, the Habs are going to be in a pickle. Do they really want to invest megamoney in goaltending?
Yes we do. Some teams (like Detroit and Chicago) can win Cups with good, but not great goalies. They are able to do so because the rest of the team is so strong, especially their elite players.
We don’t have a stellar group of skaters, outside of Subban and maybe a rejuvenated Markov. The rest of the players are solid but none of them are over the top. In that case our only hope of winning a Cup is with a “Roy like” goalie who can pull off another ‘93 miracle. Price has the potential to be that man. In a way, he’s our version of a Crosby, Toews and Lidstrom.
What’s problematic is when you give 6.6 per to Bryzgalov for his year 31-40.
Having to spend a lot on goaltending is never that great, even if it’s on Price. But I think we can trust management on this. Goaltending money is not out of range, the highest have salaries in the 6 millions range, which is a far cry from the 10 millions or so high end guys such as Ovechkin get and still a good step down from top end Defensemen money (who seems to go in the 7 millions range).
Price is young. Say they sign him for 6 per for 5 or 6 years, it’s not a boat anchor of a deal. It’s not terribly efficient either, but then again, the Habs advantage lies in their ability to spend every single cent allowed by the CBA, so overpaying to secure impact talent is not necessarily a problem, especially overpaying for his prime years.
But then again, if they turn Budaj (who never had a goaltending coach in Colorado?!) into a useful goalie, Price could bring in quite a load.
Thing is, the Habs have had excellent special teams for years now, and last year they had a major turnaround in their 5-on-5 game, with numbers that are well within “contender” range. If they can keep that last part up (and I have faith that they can), it’s entirely possible that they become the sort of team that doesn’t need an elite goalie.
But if they can keep an elite goalie at a reasonable price (no pun intended), then what’s the point of not having one? As it stands the Habs are in zero salary cap trouble, and probably won’t be next year either, even with Price, Subban and Eller up for contract. If they ever move Gomez, they’re in even better shape.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 3, 2011 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
So long as the price is reasonable, then obviously you keep him.
The problem is when it becomes unreasonable (6m+). The marginal improvement over a 3m goalie may just not be there, especially with the Habs’ history of digging out quality goaltending out of the ether. Of course, a contract like that wouldn’t kill a rich team like the Habs either, so it’s not like it’s a life-or-death question; but you have to consider it, depending on what you can get in a trade.
I love Price’s game as much as the next guy, but spending fortunes on goaltending just generally isn’t worth it.
The Habs have had relatively cheap, but above average goaltending since ditching the Theo contract. It’ll be an interesting negotiation with Price, that’s for sure. You can use both reasonable and terrible dollar figures as guidelines for his next contract.
The Habs goaltending pipeline is pretty much tapped out right now. Although they do like the UND goalie and have tried to sign him already (brought him to a rookie camp), he might have some potential above Delmas and Mayer.
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While I can see Gauthier getting Subban under contract in June, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Habs wait and see what the salary cap is like under a new or renewed CBA before tendering Price more than his qualifying offer.
If the CBA and salary cap are about the same for 11-12 as it is now I won’t mind seeing fairly big money being spent on a good goaltender. It’s not the most efficient way to go about things, but I figure that we’re basically at pre-lockout salary levels with the cap as high as it is and a gap between rich teams and poor teams.
Only two teams have won the Cup since ’93 without the aid of a high quality, well-paid goalie – Chicago (2010) and Detroit (2008). As I stated before, on a team without a lot of high end talent, you want to make sure that you at least have one of the top goalies in the league.
Once Nashville signs Rinne, we will have a realistic estimate of what Price is worth (keeping in mind the age & expereince difference). It will also depend on whether it is a short or a long-term deal that Montreal offers.
A couple of additions have to be made.
Cam Ward was not highly paid and while he got hot, he was a sub-.900 goalie that year and it took him two more years to have a league-average season.
Fleury is highly paid, but he’s an average goalie. The year they won the Cup he was .906 in the playoffs — one of the lowest playoff performances that year.
Both Cam Ward and MA Fleury have reputations that exceed their accomplishments, though it looks like Ward has actually developped into an above-average goalie.
This leaves only Giguere and Thomas, and I’d hesitate to call Giguere an elite goalie.
Giguere from 01-07 was pretty high end. The thing with this argument is that a lot of goalies can be great over a 3-6 year period but average to below average the rest of the way, and you end up paying Giguere because of his past greatness which he can’t hold up due to injuries, age, etc.
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Very true. The problem that I think a lot of people have with paying a lot of money for a goalie is exactly what you’re describing. How long will their prime be? With Price it looks like it could be a pretty long time considering his skill, mental toughness and athleticism. That’s the kind of goalie (Brodeur, Roy, Belfour type) that you shouldn’t hesitate locking up for a long time, and you really shouldn’t trade. I think that especially rings true when not every GM in the league is as insane as Colorado’s, so what you’d be getting back for a goalie of Price’s caliber likely isn’t as valuable as he is.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 4, 2011 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions
The thing that was also weird about the Giguere situation was that Burke had Bryzgalov and Hiller in the system at the same time (the Ducks had just won a bidding war for Hiller as an undrafted UFA). Giguere won the Cup, but there was still no need to make him the long term choice for the team, especially since he was in his 30’s already.
I guess long term is something I just don’t like in general. I’m okay with 5 or 6 year deals for players still in their mid to late 20s, but anything beyond that is a recipe for disaster IMO.
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It depends on the player in a lot of ways. For the most part I agree with you, but would you sign a 24 year old Crosby to a 10-12 year deal if he was up for contract? I know I would.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 6, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Knowing what I know right now? Absolutely not. Concussion history is not something to take lightly in negotiations.
Ovechkin, same thing. His style of play seems particularly suspectible to injury. I agree that you have to be willing to take on some risk, but 6 years seems plenty.
If you are worried about him not re-signing with you at that point, I think you’re in the wrong business. There’s nothing wrong with negotiating another elite dollar level contract in five years if the player is still healthy and still elite.
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I love how Subban did all of this in his first year and I love that he did it on a Montreal team that wasn’t that bad to begin with. Sure, injuries on defense opened the door for him but playing on both special teams on a pretty good special teams team (this is getting redunddant) is exceptional. No one’s getting excited if a rookie is on the second PP unit in Edmonton where no one can do the job. Being on the first PK unit on a team that had Hamrlik, Spacek and Sopel (not couting Wisniewski, Mara or Weber even as options right now) still means the coach really saw something in him.
To sum it up: Yes the coach was lacking options and some could say he was on the team as a result of poor depth, but if it was the case, he wouldn’t become plan A in all situations.




















