Habs Rookie Camp Day 1 in the books
by Kevin van Steendelaar on Sep 12, 2011 8:28 PM EDT
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Doesn't it feel good knowing that the Montreal Canadiens rookie camp has started? We're that much closer to the new season, ladies and gents.
The eager and hopeful Habs prospects took to the ice in Brossard today, closing out with a red vs white scrimmage that was taken 3-2 by the white squad. Alain Berger, who came in No. 23 in our Top 25 Under 25, netted a pair of goals, including the winner.
"I was pretty happy with the first game, and I worked pretty hard. But there's lots to improve," Berger said, and has set his goal on making the Hamilton Bulldogs this season. "That is my goal. I worked hard for that over the summer. I was back home in Switzerland, for a bit and was back here in August."
Another Hamilton hopeful is 2009 1st round pick Louis Leblanc, who wore a non-contact sweater at today's session as he recoups from shoulder surgery.
"I'm probably ahead of schedule right now. I feel great and started a bit of contact last week," Leblanc said. "Day by day I'm getting better." Leblanc will have to travel to Florida to get the full doctor's clearance to resume a regular playing regimen.
Like Berger, Leblanc is focused on starting his season in the AHL, feeling he's learned all he can in the QMJHL. "Pro is the next step for me. I want to learn from (Bulldogs coach) Clement Jodoin. It's going to be faster, and the guys are going to be bigger, older, stronger. It's another step towards the NHL."
Tons of audio from our friends at HockeyInsideOut.com and a few more links after the jump
The best news of the day however was that acclaimed sportswriter Michael Farber announced that his cancer is in remission. Farber had taken a leave of absence from his senior editor position with Sports Illustrated and his daily/weekly appearances on CJAD and TSN. He returned to the Montreal airwaves in late August.
One of the Habs rookies at this year's camp is Nathan Beaulieu, who received good reviews in the Globe and Mail's preview of Eastern Canadian teams.
"He was projected as a top-eight pick, so when Nathan Beaulieu was still available at 17, the Canadiens grabbed him. The Saint John Sea Dogs blueliner is the first Habs first rounder from the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League since Eric Chouinard in 1998. That’s an ominous precedent, but Beaulieu is a better prospect than Chouinard and projects as a top-pair defenseman. He’s a fluid skater, a smart defender, a snazzy passer and a power-play quarterback whose hockey sense is off the charts. He'll need to get bigger to play in the NHL, and will spend another year with the Memorial Cup champions, but Beaulieu could be in Montreal on a Subban-like timeline of two or three years." - Sean Gordon, The Globe and Mail, Sept 11, 2011
It really comes as no surprise, but amidst the recent concerns of fighting in the NHL, NESN is showing a fight a day from the Boston Bruins 2010-11 season. Fans then can vote at week's end for their favorite. Now I do believe fighting is part of the game, but I think over exposure at this time is a bit off key. Then again NESN signed Jack Edwards for five more years..
Speaking of the Bruins, Eric Engels gives his forecast for the defending Stanley Cup champions.
The town of Coniston has renamed their arena the Toe Blake Memorial Arena, in honor of it's hometown hero.
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Engels missed that Boston lost Recchi in addition to Ryder. I think they’re going to miss the pair of them more than people expect, not that either were big impact players but its hard to lose 2 of your top 3 at a position, even a less important one like RW.
I do think Corvo was a good pick up for them though, they need to upgrade their 3rd defenseman and help their powerplay.
I think it’s fair to say that in spite of his age that Recchi was an impact player for the Bruins. He played top line minutes with Bergeron from game 1 of the regular season to game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. And as for Ryder, if it wasn’t for his glove save Boston would have been gone in round 1.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Sep 12, 2011 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
They were important in the Kostitsyn or now Cole sense, not vital but definite contributors. And I`d doubt Pouliot or Caron could fully replace either.
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 13, 2011 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
He also missed that Boston was a middling possession club being held up by insanely high PDO, but you can’t expect mainstream journalists to catch things like that. Well, you do — usually they recognize that Thomas’s not likely to repeat his historic season — but I think they underestimate the impact of that.
I think especially that because of the “awesome defense” narrative, people don’t realize how much Boston’s net was bombarded (2nd-most shots against in the whole league) and how much their GAA was propped up by unreal goaltending. If Thomas gives them “80% of what he did last season”, they’re going to be a 6th-7th place team (depending on how you count; I doubt Engels means 80% of his save percentage, for example!).
I think Boston is severely overvalued and do not view them as a top club going forward. I’m not sure if anyone has done a side-by-side comparison of their roster next to Buffalo or Montreal and made a cold comparison, especially on D where Boston remains quite shallow after Chara. Corvo helps and they needed that, but still, examined without the lens of “defending Cup Champions”, this is just not a world-beater roster.
I expect lots of “Cup hangover” narratives resulting to Boston regressing to the mean and getting results more commensurate with their talent level. They’re not a bad team and should make the playoffs, but I think they’re not-inconsiderable odds that Boston finishes 2011-2012 third-best in the division.
I give Thomas about a 60% chance of holding onto the starter’s job this season. And most of that is just because he’s earned more of an opportunity to prove himself after a poor stretch than a guy like Reimer, for example.
Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.
For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.
by Bruce Peter on Sep 13, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I just don’t think Thomas is all luck based. The Bruins have now put up three seasons of .927/.923/.931. At what point is that a system or a skill?
There is no doubt that Thomas does not possess a .938 SV% skill. Plenty of luck went into that performance to raise his level to a league record, but Rask last season was a .931 and the year before Thomas was at .933.
Is that three straight seasons of lucky goaltending? When are they going to regress to the mean? Their performance in relation to league average as a team SV% is +.19/.12/.18. Their starter has gone +.23/.20/.25 during that span.
Either they have phenomenal goaltending or something is going on in Boston defensively. How long do we continue to make the claims that they cannot continue to get this type of goaltending?
I am the first one to kill the mainstream media, but they are the defending Stanley Cup champions, they won the East in 2009 and were one win away from the Conference Finals in 2010. They deserve respect regardless of what their PDO says, regardless of whether there is a statistical model to prove their defensive efficiency.
PDO keeps saying they can’t succeed, yet they have continued to succeed. Somebody explain that.
They have the best goaltending duo in the NHL, and I don’t know if it’s even close. They should expect above average bordering on great goaltending every year. My point was more that Rask is pretty much as good as Thomas is.
I don’t know how much can be attributed to luck, how much to goaltending skill, and how much to systems. I know that all three have to play some role. I do think they minimize the luck factor a lot with having two excellent goaltenders, much like Montreal beat the percentages in 2009-10 with two good to great goalies (except Boston does it with a legitimately decent team in front of them).
Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.
For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.
by Bruce Peter on Sep 14, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I think it is a mix of both system and skill. I see no reason why they won’t be able to sustain a .925 team SV% with both of them.
$5M is too much to sink into Thomas with a guy like Rask on the bench. Thomas is going to have to clear the way this year or next, so I would deal the guy at his peak and cash out right now.
A regression would be acceptable if it returns a young impact player and $5M cap space IMO.
by Chris Boyle on Sep 14, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
.925% would have been a top-5 goalie in 2010-2011, so that’s perhaps an unrealistically high expectation for a goalie tandem, even the Bruins… and yet, even if Boston’s save percentages regresses to that still-rareified level, it’d still add 12 goals-against to their total unless they cut down on shots against.
I don’t think people appreciate how much Thomas’s historic goaltending performance underpinned the Bruins’ defense and goal-differential. The mainstream media perfunctory nods at the idea that he’ll regress, but don’t realize how much merely excellent goaltending would hurt the Bruins’ defensive totals…
The Bruins have essentially carried that as a team for three straight seasons. They carried that even with a season of Manny Fernandez in 2009.
I don’t believe Thomas was historically great in 2011. Yes .938 is a record, but it was achieved in a season in which the average SV% was .913.
During Bob Froese’s 1986 campaign he posted a .909 when the league average was .875. During Ed Belfour’s 1991 season he posted a .910 when the league average was .886. In 1988 Patrick Roy had a .900 when the league average was .879. In 1992 Patrick Roy posted a .912 when the league average was .888. Thomas’ season doesn’t even compare to Hasek’s 1999 season when he had a .937 and the league average was .907 and it is certainly nowhere near Hasek’s 1994 season where he posted a .930 SV% when the league average was .895 SV%.
I don’t believe that .938 is being used in the proper context. There are plenty of seasons in which goaltenders blew away the rest of the league but because the league wasn’t so defensive minded+goaltender evolution it was virtually ignored.
If you reference it in regards to his peers and the league average, his 2011 season is 13th best among the leaders over the last 25 years. Add in post expansion and it plummets even further.
Comparing what Thomas did this season as a historically great is like comparing Bernie Federko to Peter Forsberg and concluding that Federko is the superior scorer and player.
The average SV% has risen from .905 to .913 since the lockout. A .930+ SV% is not an outlier anymore, it has happened every season since 2009. Last season saw two goaltenders with a +.930 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see even more next year.
It’s not unrealistic to expect a .925 SV% from the Bruins when they have gone +.19, +.12, +.18. over average the last 3 seasons. Even using their worst differential of the last 4 seasons when they were +.08 would project out to .922 as a tandem. Barely below .925
I’d say Thomas’ year was historically good… not too many Vezina AND Conn Smythe winners in the same season.
Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.
For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.
by Bruce Peter on Sep 15, 2011 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t put much stock into Conn Smythe awards anymore after I watched Malkin win it over Crosby in 2009 or how the league was set to give it to Chris Osgood that same season had they won Game 7.
Everybody gets gaga over .938, but it is all relative. That number was just not possible in the 60s-80s.
by Chris Boyle on Sep 15, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you there, the fact that save percentages were so high certainly puts a damper on that achievement. Even relative to league average though it was a huge season, one he’s unlikely to repeat.
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 15, 2011 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions
PDO isn’t just goaltending. Goaltending is the sustainable part of PDO and I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the Bruins don’t have above-average goaltending, both in the starter and backup position. Thomas isn’t going to sustain his historic percentage, but if the Bruins continue to allow their goalie to be bombarded and their goalies revert to mere excellence, they’re still going to be in trouble.
But it’s the fluctuation in their shooting percentages that really drives home how much their results have been luck-driven lately. Over the last four years their team shooting percentage has swung low-high-low-high — at even-strength their rank went 25th-2nd-30th-4th, and their 5-on-5 goal scoring, accordingly, went 23rd-2nd-28th-1st. Their real offensive ability is probably somewhere in the middle of that — about league-average.
As for the playoffs, evaluating based on the playoffs consistently runs into the same problem: small sample size. Boston has done very well over the last three years and yet those three playoff runs put together don’t even make a full season’s worth of games.
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