Musings on Forward Lines and Line Usage
by Roke on Aug 14, 2011 2:53 AM EDT
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PrintThe Montreal Canadiens are in a fairly strong position when it comes to their forward group. Seven top-6 forwards, a 3rd-line centre in Lars Eller taking on increasing responsibility and doing okay with it, and a 4th-line in David Desharnais centre who dominated opposition 4th-lines last season. Jacques Martin has a lot more options than he did at the beginning of last season.
Martin has generally employed power-on-power match-ups: 1st line (Plekanec) against 1st line, 2nd line (Gomez) against 2nd, and so on. About 2/3 of NHL coaches employ their forward lines in this manner, hoping that their best players can out-score the opposition best rather than merely rack up the points.
Of late I have been thinking about Martin’s line permutations and usage for the upcoming season. Tomas Plekanec will undoubtedly play against the opposition best and I would bet on free agent signing Erik Cole likely to slot in on one of Plekanec’ wings. Conventional wisdom has Mike Cammalleri occupying his usual spot on the left-wing of that line but I wonder if the Montreal would be better off doing something else.
Mike Cammalleri, while handling the tough Plekanec minutes fairly well, saw his shot rate decline slightly last season. The much-maligned Scott Gomez suffered horrendous luck with a goon-like on-ice shooting percentage. Brian Gionta’s doing just fine though suffered a little bad luck in the shooting percentage department and he’s heading into his mid-30s. It may be beneficial for the Canadiens to put the three of them together and give them more favourable circumstances, especially if Gauthier’s plan is to trade Scott Gomez in the off-season should Eller become capable of handling top-6 minutes.
Doing the old "Pump n’ Dump" with Scott Gomez’ point totals could make him a more valuable trade commodity next off-season (his value couldn’t be lower than it is right now). Gomez should see his point totals improve on its own with some regression in his on-ice shooting percentage, but pairing him with the Montreal wingers with the best shots would help. Furthermore, starting the line more often in the offensive zone would allow them to spend greater time in that zone and provide greater opportunities to take shots at goal. Last season Gomez had the greatest proportion of starts in the offensive zone of any Hab last season but I wouldn’t mind seeing it taken to another level.
Feasting on offensive zone faceoffs has pumped point totals for players on other teams. For the Sedins it helped make them into Art Ross candidates (over 70% Ozone% in 10-11) and one-year wonder Ville Leino (62.3% ozone% in 10-11) got a contract the Sabres will almost certainly regret when they can’t employ him in the manner Philadelphia did so successfully.
While the Canadiens do not have Manny Malholtra to allow Gomez Sedin-type usage but it may be possible to have the Gomez line have Leino-type faceoff usage. Last season, David Desharnais had no problem handling moderate defensive zone starts (46.9%) against 4th-line opposition and I believe he can do the same with Travis Moen/Mathieu Darche and Ryan White on his wings.
Lars Eller is the biggest question-mark in the scheme. Has he progressed enough to not be over his head against 2nd-line opposition while starting in the defensive zone more often than last season? Having one of Pacioretty or Kostitsyn on his wing would help him out, Travis Moen’s defensive play wouldn’t hurt either but I have misgivings about his readiness for such a role. Ideally, the Habs would acquire another tough-minutes forward to play with Plekanec and bump Kostitsyn down to Eller’s flank to make things easier but such players are rare and difficult to acquire so that isn’t in the cards.
Also of concern is whether Scott Gomez is suited for such a role. His greatest skill is transporting the puck from the defensive zone to the offensive zone and this alignment would largely take that away from him. While starting him in the offensive zones may bump Gomez’ point totals up it may be sub-optimal to do so.
I don't believe Jacques Martin will employ such a strategy this season as I'm not sure Lars Eller is quite ready for the added responsibility. Nonetheless, the bounty of forwards under his disposal will allow Martin plenty of time to experiment and tinker heading in pre-season and the early stages of the regular season
10-11 Ozone% from Behindthenet.ca
The line-up and rough Ozone% under consideration in the article:
Andrei Kostitsyn-Tomas Plekanec-Erik Cole (48% Ozone%)
Mike Cammalleri-Scott Gomez-Brian Gionta (60% Ozone%)
Max Pacioretty-Lars Eller-Travis Moen (46% Ozone%)
Mathieu Darche-David Desharnais-Ryan White (45% Ozone%)
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The thing that troubles me about the Gomez line that you’re putting together is that I think it only works for home games when Martin can line match the way he wants. It would be a very fast line but also very small with almost zero net presence. If I recall correctly it didn’t last long in 09-10. I like the idea of splitting up the 3 larger, physical forwards in Cole, Pacioretty and Kostitsyn among the top 3 lines so that each one has a physical presence much more.
I might be alone on this thought, but I like the idea of putting Desharnais on the wing on Eller’s line. Due to Eller’s shoulder surgery he likely won’t be strong on faceoffs this season so another center would help him out a lot. Not to mention having Kostitsyn or Pacioretty there as well makes that line a legitimate scoring threat every time they step out. Leave the 4th line to be centered by one of White, Engqvist or a cheap pickup before training camp.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Aug 16, 2011 4:03 AM EDT reply actions
I disagree with the line having zero net presence, Gionta’s one of the best Habs forward in terms of going to the front of the net or staying there. I concede that the line would lack size, but to my eye Gionta and Gomez work very well on the cycle and Cammalleri is by no means a slouch in that department (again, to my eye). What the two wingers lack in size they make up for with their hands and intelligent positioning. That said, I’m not all that concerned about size on the wings. It’s a bonus, but I don’t think you gain more than a handful of goals over a season because of it.
I wouldn’t mind Desharnais moving to the wing on the 3rd-line provide Gauthier goes out and gets a veteran centre for the 4th line. I don’t have confidence in Enqvist being able to handle un-sheltered minutes and I see Ryan White as the Habs 13th forward to start the season, getting into the lineup when a forward inevitably picks up an injury. I’d like to see Desharnais have a full season in his 4th-line goon deterrent role and hopefully slotting in as the 3rd-line centre in 2012-13 if he continues to progress.
I don’t have a lot of faith in Engqvist being ready either, but they wouldn’t be unsheltered minutes. With Desharnais on the Eller line with Kostitsyn you have a 3rd tough minutes pairing. If Martin wanted he could split the ice time up as 18-18-16-8 amongst the lines. The 4th line would feast on the easiest minutes and benefit from the experience of Moen.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Aug 17, 2011 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Can Eller and Desharnais handle tough minutes? We haven’t really seen that yet. We know both Kostitsyn and Moen could (assuming AK is in the bottom 6, which is a big assumption).
What hasn’t been suggested here is this: maybe Cammalleri should be the one bumped down to soft minutes?
Kostitsyn-Plekanec-Cole
Pacioretty-Gomez-Gionta
Darche-Desharnais-Cammalleri
Moen-Eller-White
Give that Desharnais line a ton of OZone Starts and see if that wastes Camm’s talent or not.
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by Bruce Peter on Aug 18, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Or, make it Eller with Dessy instead of Darche (choose which centre) and change the fourth line up.
Reunite Cammalleri with Plekanec on the PP.
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by Bruce Peter on Aug 18, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I think in the playoffs Eller showed that he could handle and excel as a tough minutes center, and he’s only going to get better.
As for Cammalleri, I don’t think I’d want to waste our best sniper on a lower line. Kostitsyn can handle tough minutes but I find Cammalleri handles them better, and he’s become a better all around player since he’s been here.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Aug 18, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re right about Engqvist and the sheltered minutes and it’s not as if he’d be stepping into the 3rd-line centre spot in the event of injuries.
For me, I guess it comes down to a developmental/comfort question (which I’m not well equipped to assess). I want Desharnais to play as the 4th-line centre because I’m hoping he can be groomed for 3rd-line centre minutes for next season (assuming Eller is ready for 2nd-line minutes, Gomez is tradable, yadayada).
On one hand, playing on the wing of the 3rd-line has him playing against tougher opposition which would be a nice test. On the other hand, the defensive positioning on the wing is a bit different than for centre and he wouldn’t be taking as many faceoffs (though I guess that’s easily addressed with extra practice time).
The reason I’m thinking DD on the wing is that aside from faceoffs I’m not sure he has a future as an NHL center. He’s a tad small to be a checker, and he’s not quite good enough to be top 6.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Aug 19, 2011 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Cammaleri, Gomez, and Gionta are strong enough defensive players that I think it would be a waste to use them in an extreme zone start set up. Something like 55% while Plekanec covers by playing 45% defensive start might be better. Getting Eller, Pacioretty and Desharnais/Darche more offensive starts would also be a plus.
That is an excellent point. I was really only looking at one end of the ice for the line here.
I forgot to mention that the Ozone% figures were assuming that the Habs had an equal number of offensive and defensive zone faceoffs. If the team manages to continue their strong possession game next season there should be ample offensive opportunities to go around without reverting to crazy schemes to boost one particular line.
I do like the idea of getting Cammalleri away from the toughest minutes though. It was either you or MathMan who mentioned the drop in his shot rate last year and that could be a way to get him going again.
I think Mathman has mentioned it more but both of us tracked it independantly. Cammaleri does seem to do alright overall as a tough minute winger, it just results in a very low event player at even strength. Its possible that the loss of his offense is compensated by easier minutes for other players so the net gain of moving him from the shutdown line is minimal.
by Stephan Cooper on Aug 17, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I did some thinking on this recently and came up with an idea. The best tough minutes winger on the team is Gionta so ideally he’d play with Plekanec except for the evidence that Gomez needs him. Cole brings a lot of what Gionta does so they could try him on Gomez’s right wing and bring Gionta up resulting in:
Pacioretty/Kostitsyn – Plekanec – Gionta
Cammaleri – Gomez – Cole
Pacioretty/Kostitsyn – Eller – Moen/Darche
by Stephan Cooper on Sep 12, 2011 12:13 PM EDT reply actions
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