Montreal's Top 20 Prospects
by Taves on Jul 18, 2011 9:28 AM EDT
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PrintEditor's note: As the days of summer move on at a snail's pace in anticipation of the 2011-12 NHL season, the EOTP crew are in the midst of compiling our Habs prospect rankings. One of our readers has composed his own top-20 list. I thought I'd bring it front and center for open discussion.
So I was sitting here, looking over my personal rankings, and I thought I'd ask the question to the rest of Habs Nation for my first post:
Who do you see as Montreal's Top 20 Prospects now that the draft is all done with? Let's take Subban out of the discussion, since he's the de facto Number 1, and everyone knows he's going to be a stud. But after that, we'll leave the Eller's, Desharnais' and Weber's in. Have fun ranking them, and lets get some discussion going.
1) Lars Eller - I know some people might not have loved his first season, and as Stephan Cooper showed, it's with good reason. Still, I think this was Lars adjustment year to the pro game, and he showed flashes to me of getting ready to take a step up. I'd expect 40 points next year, but I think he's a perfect 2nd line center for this team long-term, as he plays a good all-around game.
2) Louis Leblanc - This kid has everything I want from a center, and with Eller gives me high hopes for the Canadiens future down the middle. Can take over games with his effort, though I'm not sure there's true high-end skills to be an elite player, he's going to be a very solid top 6 forward for years.
3) Nathan Beaulieu - First, I'm not sure why SBN has him as Jets property, but that's another issue entirely. This kid was a steal for Montreal. I was shocked that he dropped, and when he was there he was an easy pick in my mind. There were plenty of guys I liked, but I thought he was part of the best top 9 players in the 2011 draft. He's 6'3", plays a crafty offensive game, and his upside is extremely high all-around. He's even pro-ready (AHL would be best, but he'll have to go back to the Q since he's not making the Canadiens yet).
4) David Desharnais - David came up and played well, and for me there's very little reason to doubt the 24 year old. He's got the same skillset as Nathan Gerbe in Buffalo, and while he's small and an injury risk, I like him to show up big and establish himself as a guy good enough to play in the top 6 with the next two seasons.
5) Yannick Weber - This is another kid I've seen a lot of, and he's got one of the most impressive shots from the point I've seen. He's got great offensive instincts, and should man the point on the 2nd PP unit this year. Subban will always have first PP privileges, but Weber will earn his role as a point-producing defenseman.
6) Alexander Avtsin - I'll admit, this is a pure upside ranking. Avtsin hasn't proven anything after a season in the AHL, but his wrist-injury and adjusting to a new game took it's toll on the talented Russian. There's a lot to work on, but I think if he sticks it out in the AHL for two more years, he will be a top 6 stud for the Canadiens. My major worry, with every Russian, is that he'll flee to the KHL after not seeing NHL action early enough in his mind.
7) Aaron Palushaj - A completely under-rated player, Palushaj has done everything asked of him at the AHL level. He's a former 2nd rounder in 2007, and while he's taken a little time, this kid can play. Maybe we should continue to pilfer the Blues system for talent. Many think he's just a checking forward, but I see him as the perfect 2nd or 3rd line winger who plays with intense energy, can check well and scores.
8) Jarred Tinordi - The big defenseman will be a top 4 guy, and at worst a bottom-pairing D, so he's extremely low risk. I loved him a little more last year, but I wasn't as impressed with his OHL season as I'd hoped. I still think he's a lock of a player, but I think his offensive upside is further away then I thought, which will keep him from being a potential top 2 guy.
9) Danny Kristo - The freak frost-bite incident derailed his season, but he is an energy forward with good upside. I think he's probably a bottom 9 forward at best, but he's going to be an energy player who makes plays running around the ice. He'll be fun to watch, that's for sure. He's got deft hands, so he should fit in on the third line in 2012 or 2013.
10) Alexei Yemelin - First off, he prefers Yemelin, not Emelin. Secondly, he's taken an insane long time to get over, but he's finally here. He's a big hitter, and he's a joy to watch, and he'll be a deadly force for the Canadiens on the blueline, forcing opposing forwards to keep their heads up. He'll be a shutdown guy from the start, but he's got the abilities to contribute offensively a bit. Probably a 30 point, lockdown guy.
11) Brendon Nash
12) Brock Trotter
13) Daniel Pribyl
14) Raphael Diaz
15) Ryan White
16) Mark MacMillan
17) Peter Delmas
18) Magnus Nygren
19) Mac Bennett
20) Joonas Nattinen
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Gallagher and Bournival are both criminally underrated. I can see both being future Habs for a long time.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Jul 19, 2011 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
They are both good shots to make team Canada next year. That’ll probably raise their profile.
by Stephan Cooper on Jul 19, 2011 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Jul 19, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Just making the team is a pretty good sign. Going down the years since 2000 most of the guys playing for Canada at least make the NHL even if they don’t become stars
by Stephan Cooper on Jul 19, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn’t Shawinigan set to host the Memorial Cup next year, too? That will likely give some more attention to Bournival, too.
by despisethesun on Jul 19, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Eller, DD, Weber and White shouldn't be considered prospects anymore.
They’ve all spent significant time in the NHL and won’t be returning to Hamilton any time soon. They’ve made the NHL.
Not a huge fan of these rankings to be honest. I agree with Stephan, you’ve left off 4 guys who definitely deserve to be in the top 20.
And you’ve totally overrated Palushaj. He’s …. we’ll he’s just not very good. I’ve seen him a fair few times and there’s a reason the Blues gave up on him (and it’s not because D’Agostini’s a stud). Could just be the games i’ve seen but he was completely invisible at all times. Literally the only notable thing i’ve ever seen him do is get hit in the face by a puck and leave the game. If the day ever comes where Palushaj is in the top 6-9 we’re in serious trouble.
Totally agree, I don’t see them as prospects either, except maybe Eller. I think Weber will be a Canadien for a long time to come and be a 7th defenseman. And Ryan White’s gonna be a long time player in the NHL, 15 years from now, he’s gonna be a Jeff Halpern, a Glen Metropolit. And yea, Palushaj is overrated, he could make the NHL, but he is only player I see coming out of Hamilton this season due to a Hab injury.
This was the tough part for me when I first made my list, but I decided that I’d put the cutoff at a full NHL season, or if they had established themselves as a top two line guy in near that. Eller probably shouldn’t be on the list, but since he didn’t break out last year, I have yet to remove him. I disagree with DD, Weber and White, since all three have yet to establish themselves full-time. They will all likely make the team in October, but none are guarentees outside of DD (although I think Weber should be) to get good icetime.
As for Palushaj, I guess it just came down to the games you’ve seen v. what I’ve seen. He’s stood out in the games I saw last year, and he’s does everything well that I want. I know there are moments he seems invisible, as consistency is an issue, but I’ve seen far more standout games then invisible games in the last two years.
Tinordi I think in the long run can play as a Mike Komisarek type of guy and I really think he’s the Habs best prospect right now, Louis Leblanc from his last season in the Quebec league didn’t cut it for me to be a 1st or 2nd line center
If Tinordi is the Habs’ best prospect than the farm system is in trouble. Tinordi’s player type makes him a low-upside player. He’s very likely to fail to reach the NHL, but exactly because he is a “Mike Komisarek type”, he’s also very unlikely to be an impact player. Guys like him top off as #4s; they can work on a top-pairing with a skilled defenseman covering their lacks.
If he had puck-movement skills then he could be an impact player, but without those crucial skills, he’s always going to be limited in how much impact on a game he may have.
Fortuantely even on defense there are much higher upside players than Tinordi. Beauleiu, Yemelin, and Diaz all have pretty good top 4 potential.
by Stephan Cooper on Jul 19, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. I don’t think Tinordi is the Habs’ best prospect, certainly not in terms of upside.
He’s a low-risk, medium-reward pick, a guy who’s very likely to reach the NHL and so, an excellent selection at 22 or 26. I’m just still not getting why they spent an extra second-rounder to get him.
To be fair, a very late 2nd rounder. That the draft positions are effected by playoffs was very unfortunate for a team that really could have used some mid-first round talent.
They probably would have picked Bournival anyway and traded O’Byrne for something else.
For a team not considered in the top eschelon of the league, Montreal has drafted very late these past years. Two years at around 25 (one of which traded) and two years at 17-18. Since Price they’ve had only 3 picks in the top 20.
by Stephan Cooper on Jul 19, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
you do know that after last season Tinordi was upped to #8 prospect… I find him a huge upside player.. probably a mix of Chara and Komisarek… he is a LOCK for the habs in the near future
by allaroundhhockeyfan on Jul 20, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
There is a giant gap between Chara and Komisarek.
Like I said. He’s very likely to make the NHL. However, because of his player style, he strikes me as very unlikely to have a large impact once he gets there. A nice, safe choice for a pick in the twenties, but not a guy who’s likely to develop into a star. He’d need better puck skills for that.
Dman development
it’s absurd to look at 19 year old Dman and try to predict his ceiling – the key is how they develop between 19 and 25.
Chara was viewed as more of a novelty act in the early years with NYI and wasn’t expected to become an All Star, much less Norris Trophy winner even when he was traded to Ottawa …
A guy like Komi just stopped getting better after impressive growth over 2-3 years, then got worse (but never showed the puck skills, it’s true)
Tinordi’s base case might be his father and Mark Tinordi was All Star talent who took over games in his prime. The son needs to develop feel in the O end, but he should evolve into no worse than 2nd pairing D man … and could easily be more Chara than Komi
“it’s absurd to look at 19 year old Dman and try to predict his ceiling – the key is how they develop between 19 and 25.”
Then it’s absurd to draft defensemen, because you have no way to predict how good they’re going to be when you draft them at 18.
Komisarek has actually pretty consistent. The problem is that “playing with Markov” makes a huge difference for a non-puck-moving defenseman. Much like Gill looks a lot better than he is playing with Subban, or Markov managed to make O’Byrne look better than he is. Komisarek is kind of the example of the type of player I think a guy like Tinordi develops into: a complementary player whose results really depend on who he plays with. The problem is that a Subban or Markov carrying a lesser D-man is done at the expense of allowing the better D-man to be as good as he could be with a better partner.
But look at Chara ...
each player has to stand on his own 2 skates. All I’m saying is that Chara averaged maybe 9-10 points in his first 4 years in the NHL with NYI, which took him thru ‘00-’01 (I think), which would make him ~24 when he went to Ottawa. Bascially, a player that looked similar to Komi – block shots, hit, play your own end.
You can look at Chara at 24 and Tinordi at 19 and still have no clue how much better that player can become … Tinordi probably won’t end up better than Chara is today, but no reason (right now) to think he can’t be a top 2 Dman given the improvement he’s shown in just 1 year with better coaching & higher level of comp.
Sound argument, outside of the “play your own end”. Komi hasn’t done that for two years, much to my enjoyment since he fled to the enemy. It’s hard to say where Tinordi will be, but you have to hope he responds better then Komi as he advances through the pros, and doesn’t lose confidence like Mike did. He’ll have the benefit of not being rushed, which should help. Still, his offensive game is behind both Chara and Komi at similar age levels.
Yemelin is a seasoned pro at this point, not so much a raw rookie. I’m not sure he qualifies as a “prospect”.
Hasn’t played in the NHL means he’s a sort of prospect just a non-standard one. It wouldn’t be that unusual for a defensemanprospect to play til 24 in the AHL.
by Stephan Cooper on Jul 19, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Pribyl, MacMillan, Delmas
Until these guys show something in a league that actually matters I can’t justify including them in a list like this. Pribyl has played 7 professional games total in a league that doesn’t produce NHLers anymore, MacMillan is still playing Jr. A, and Delmas sucked in the Q for his entire career before a good pro debut… in the E. If Pribyl starts to show well in the Czech Extraliga, MacMillan at the NCAA level, and Delmas in the AHL then I’ll start to get excited.
I disagree with the commenters above on Palushaj… this kid has done amazingly well at both the NCAA level and last year the AHL level. He’s arguably our most well rounded forward prospect, a guy who can be a factor in every situation and each of the 200 feet of the ice, and seems to fit the Jacques Martin mould quite well.
As for the Jets property thing, SB Nation uploaded all the new draft player profiles and assigned them to Atlanta for some reason. Hopefully it gets fixed soon.
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Yeah, for those types of guys I don’t hold their league against them but withold judgement until they play against serious competition. Flaws in their game might not emerge until they face other good players.
Generally you don’t know what you really have with the post-lottery picks until they play a significant role on a professional team in AHL/SEL/KHL. Leblanc will be facing that test this year.
by Stephan Cooper on Jul 19, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Major Junior and Collegiate are pretty good levels. Delmas was pretty brutal in the Q after he was drafted by the Avs (hence why they didn’t sign him).
Major Junior to AHL is a significant step, but at least major junior and NCAA produce guys who make the NHL directly from those leagues. There’s never been an ECHL straight to NHL, or Jr. A straight to NHL player in the past generation.
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Ya, this is true. I probably over-reacted a little to Pribyl, in honesty. I think he was a sleeper in the 2011 draft, but he doesn’t deserve to be on the list yet. He does need to prove himself in Czech league. MacMillan has dominated the BCHL, which is a lesser league, and I think he’ll acclimatize to the NCAA well, although I see your point. Just like his tools a lot. Delmas though I’ll defend. I’ve seen a fair bit of him out here in the Q, and I don’t think he’s played poorly. He’s a great skater, and plays an economical and efficient style that allows him to get back set quicker then most goalies. Colorado’s decision makers got too caught up in the stats, since they don’t look pretty. The Remparts had a terrible defense that didn’t help him, and then he went to Halifax which was the worst team in the CHL. On top of that, a goaltending scout I respect, Justin Goldman of the Goalie Guild, has been high on him for a while and thinks he has pro upside. Probably should be 20-25, though, not 17. Admittedly tried to make too much of a statement with that one, being my first post and all, as I bumped him up a little from my ranking spreadsheet.
That’s fair. If you’ve seen Delmas a fair amount, that’s okay. I admittedly haven’t. I want to see some long term production out of him before I get too excited. I do have him higher than Mayer, though that doesn’t take much. Also, it’s fair to blast Colorado decision makers for all things goalie related, as this past year they’ve proven themselves to be absolute idiots in that field.
I have hopes for all these guys, but I’m more about looking at them again in a year before putting them ahead of more seasoned pros.
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by Bruce Peter on Jul 20, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
To be fair, I would not be surprised if Pribyl or MacMillian made the top 20 by next year. Pribyl is this year’s Avtsin pick of a talented European sleeper. But I want another year before making judgements.
by Stephan Cooper on Jul 20, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting comments on my list, and I appreciate them and will take them into consideration. Although, we’ve got a whole lot of complaining, and a exactly zero attempts to do what the point of this exercise was, which is post your own list and discuss. Seriously, I take all your comments with a grain of salt until you post your lists, as it’s easy to pick apart another’s thoughts without ever posting your own. ;) I know my list doesn’t match with a lot of yours, but the point was to see what everyone’s own list looks like. We all have different takes on guys.
Heh, as Kevin added at the top of your story, us EOTP writers are compiling our own lists right now for a running feature in August. You’ll have to wait. :)
But thanks for getting the discussion rolling.
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by Bruce Peter on Jul 20, 2011 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Missed an important prospect!!!
OMG how can you leave Bournival off this list!!!??? I bet you he has a longer career in MTL then Palushja. Gauthier at the draft said it didn’t matter that they didn’t have a 2nd round choice as they had gotten him in the season via the OB trade (ie Bournival).
This kid put almost identical stats in the Q to Leblanc. Yet most of these prospect lists forget to mention him. He is top 8 in my books, and will be a GREAT bottom 6 player for the Habs. Lots of energy and great work ethics and can score too.
Equal to Leblance?
I know nothing about propsects, but that tells me the glass half full side is Bournival has an NHL career in him. The glass half-empty is he doesn’t and neither does Leblanc.
Personnaly, there are two kids I’m looking at in the AHL this year: is Palushaj breaking out in the first half? If so, we may see him in the NHL by Christmas, as Desharnais before him. The other is Avtsin. I don’t expect a huge year from him, but If he is to account for something, his production will have to ramp up post-christmas.
We’ll see.
The hope for Leblanc is that his numbers were being suppressed by a variety of factors. Ice-time, injury, poor shot conversion and playing for an uber-defensive team.
He made team Canada for a reason despite lackluster scoring and looked very good there and at training camp. How he plays in the AHL will be a major tell of his potential.
by Stephan Cooper on Jul 20, 2011 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Done with junior, 20 years old this season. Most people I read that track Hamilton closely think he’ll be in the top six as a center there. The junior AHL transition can be messy for some but from the Hamilton games I’ve watched and what I’ve seen of Leblanc I think he’ll do decently well. He’s got the two-way game to avoid and Avtsin style demotion and the smart way he works the offensive zone suggests to be that he’ll be able to score at that level.
The biggest concern for me is he’s still very slight even for a 20 year old and a lot of his game is based on board work. He might get man handled by AHL defensemen who have a lot more weight to throw around than juniors.
by Stephan Cooper on Jul 20, 2011 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Harumph!
I don’t know who watched the WJHC last year, but LeBlanc was anything but lackluster (not what Cooper said I know). He played a lot of tough minutes and appeared to be the saving grace for the lines he played on. I was disappointed by the coaching job. Those out there praising Schenn to high heavens (he was a man playing against children) when one would have expected him to outperform all others based on his development into an almost NHL ready player. LeBlanc showed grit when it required and set up a TON of scoring opportunities. I was pleased by his play.
I think his physical size, not his physical play, will fill the critics blogs for months. The physical play (tough along the boards fighting for the puck, handling the puck away from would be defenders/ cycling) will be the focus fan bloggers will bring out to say he’s worth his weight in gold.
by Cruisin4aBruisin on Jul 25, 2011 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Funny thing with Avtsin. Kostitsyn and Avtsin are two players who have went from the RSL/KHL to the AHL at age 19.
Kostitsyn age 19: 69 GP, 12 G, 11 A, 23 PTS.
Avtsin age 19: 62 GP, 5 G, 17 A, 22 PTS.
The AHL in 2004-05 was a tougher league than the AHL in 2010-11 due to the lockout, but its good to remember that not very many teenagers play in the AHL at all. Leafs prospect Jerry D’Amigo essentially had the same season as Avtsin in the AHL, then was sent to the OHL for the end of the year and had 37 points in 28 games. Essentially the teenagers that were in the AHL last year that did better were much higher draft picks than D’Amigo and Avtsin were (first two rounds, like Palmieri, Pirri, Morin, Josefson, Leddy, Orlov, even Schenn).
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If there is any disappointment, it was because Avtsin was hoped to have first round caliber play that fell due to the Russian factor. Of course, transitional years are usually rough on young Europeans so he could legitmately be that good.
by Stephan Cooper on Jul 21, 2011 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Mario
Beaulieu and Leblanc are up there for sure, but the best and most interesting prospect is Gallagher. This youngster is an amazing hockey player and a 5th rounder…Unbelievable!
Gallagher and Bournival
could both surprise a lot of people as they move through the ranks on their way to NHL …
BIASED IGNORANCE
With all due respect, these are all just opinions of what you’re hoping they become. I doubt Alexander Avtsin is gonna become into a bottom 6 player for the Canadiens, let alone the top 6. He’s got upside but everyone drafted has upside. I can see Aaron Palushaj as an NHLer, but a bottom 6 pairing at best. Same applies for Eller.
In fact, the only guys on that list that I could see doing good things in the future are Leblanc, Beaulieu, Tinordi and Kristo!
So...
Many people agree that Eller will be a top-6 player by most people’s standards within 2-3 years. you’re claiming this is biased ignorance but what are you basing your projections on?How many games did you see these guys play?
by Simon Lamarche on Jul 21, 2011 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions
And your post has any less biased ignorance? ;) I mean, I appreciate the candor, but Kristo is done my list when it comes to good things I expect, and I would say the high rankings of him are based on biased ignorance as well. Everyone has different opinions, and I legitimately think those players have those levels of play in them, and should get there. Yes, everyone has upside, but that’s like saying any ranking of prospects and projections of what they become is useless, since they all have upside. Might as well scrap the scouting system as a whole by that standard. Watching players, and evaluating their skills and upside as a result is the whole point of scouting, and getting multiple opinions helps to even out any balances.
Also, I’m curious as to why you think I’m biased and/or ignorant when it comes to my rankings? That in itself is interesting to me. I mean, yes, we’re all biased to prefer certain types of players (I admittedly have a fascination with Russian and European high-ceiling players), but I’m not sure how that’s ignorant.
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