FanPost

Desjardins' NHL equivalence and the 2011 Draft

The next major event on the calender for the Canadiens organization is the 2011 NHL draft.

In light of the lead-up to draft day I've compiled the offensive production numbers of first year draft eligible player and compared them by Desjardin's NHL equivalence (behindthenet.ca). NHL equivalence is a number representing how difficult it is to score in a hockey league relative to the NHL based on an average of players that have made the transition from the league to the NHL. 

While the scoring rate for actual players making this transition will vary wildly this gives us an approximate idea of what a player's minor league offensive stats mean relative to the NHL and each other.  For example the NHLE of all CHL leagues is ~0.29 with no significant difference between the 3 (despite the Q's reputation as the weakest sister).  Here is how the offensive numbers of 2011 draft eligible players compare by this metric.

Prorated numbers are to a full 82 game NHL season.

The highest NHLE players from this draft are all from the CHL, however NHLE will somewhat overestimate the scoring of CHL players relative to men's league players of the same age due to the large amount of year to year development players have at their age. Thus the performances of Armia and Zijanebad are better than they are by this metric.

The USHL players listed as going high in the upcoming draft all have uninspiring numbers. I notice that most of them are from the US development team. If someone who knows more about that and the USHL could tell me if there is a reason that the national team players are better than their numbers suggest I would appreciate it as I know little about that program and the USHL in general.

Note that this is not meant as a draft list, although at this point I'm against anyone currently playing in the USHL. It is merely an attempt to add context to the scoring totals of draft eligible players being thrown around.

Player

League

GPG

PPG

NHLE Goals per Game

NHLE Points per Game

NHLE Prorated Goals

NHLE Prorated Points

Sean Couturier

QMJHL

0.62

1.66

0.18

0.48

14.76

39.36

Ryan Strome

OHL

0.51

1.63

0.15

0.47

12.07

38.78

Jonathan Huberdeau

QMJHL

0.64

1.57

0.19

0.45

15.26

37.27

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

WHL

0.45

1.54

0.13

0.45

10.68

36.53

Shane Prince

OHL

0.42

1.49

0.12

0.43

10.08

35.47

Zack Phillips

QMJHL

0.57

1.42

0.16

0.41

13.49

33.72

Sven Bärtschi

WHL

0.52

1.29

0.15

0.37

12.25

30.63

Matt Puempel

OHL

0.62

1.25

0.18

0.36

14.70

29.83

Ryan Murphy

OHL

0.41

1.25

0.12

0.36

9.81

29.82

Gabriel Landeskog

OHL

0.68

1.25

0.20

0.36

16.15

29.61

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

QMJHL

0.48

1.18

0.14

0.34

11.36

28.04

Ty Rattie

WHL

0.42

1.18

0.12

0.34

9.94

28.04

Mark McNeill

WHL

0.46

1.16

0.13

0.34

10.87

27.52

Mark Scheifele

OHL

0.33

1.14

0.10

0.33

7.93

27.02

Alexander Khokhlachev

OHL

0.51

1.13

0.15

0.33

12.07

26.97

Stefan Noesen

OHL

0.50

1.13

0.15

0.33

11.89

26.93

Joel Armia

FEL

0.38

0.60

0.20

0.33

16.61

26.75

Michael St. Croix

WHL

0.40

1.10

0.12

0.32

9.44

26.23

Dylan Wruck

WHL

0.54

1.10

0.16

0.32

12.73

26.12

Daniel Catenacci

OHL

0.39

1.06

0.11

0.31

9.23

25.20

Boone Jenner

OHL

0.40

1.05

0.12

0.30

9.44

24.91

Phillip Danault

QMJHL

0.36

1.05

0.10

0.30

8.55

24.89

Philippe Maillet

QMJHL

0.46

1.03

0.13

0.30

11.00

24.49

Vladislav Namestnikov

OHL

0.44

1.00

0.13

0.29

10.49

23.78

Nick Cousins

OHL

0.43

1.00

0.12

0.29

10.14

23.78

Shane McColgan

WHL

0.31

0.99

0.09

0.29

7.45

23.43

Rocco Grimaldi

USHL

0.52

1.09

0.13

0.27

10.70

22.28

Mika Zijanebad

SEL

0.19

0.35

0.15

0.27

12.30

22.14

Sean Ambroz

USHL

0.43

0.82

0.11

0.21

8.79

16.84

J.T. Miller

USHL

0.14

0.71

0.04

0.18

2.93

14.64

Tyler Biggs

USHL

0.35

0.55

0.09

0.14

7.18

11.28

NHLE used: CHL 0.29, SEL 0.78, Finish Extra Liiga 0.54, USHL 0.25.

Notes:

- Joel Armia is the only player outside the CHL to show strong numbers compared to the major junior players.

-Jean Gabriel Pagau is ripping up the Q and yet nowhere in the draft rankings. I've never seen him play so I wonder what's wrong with him.

-Ryan Murphy is ripping up the OHL as a defenseman.

-There are a number of productive CHL forwards who should be available in the middle portion of the draft.  I think picking one of them will be wise for the Habs.

- Strome probably deserves more respect based on his production and late birthdate.

-Couterier remains the most productive forward available two years running. If he falls to 5 or 6 in the draft like some think he'll be one hell of a pick up for that team. I think he should still be in the argument for 1st overall.

-No player looks to jump in and make a large offensive impact at the NHL level, although typically one or two will make big strides over the summer and come in and produce at a higher level than their stats suggest.

-Prince's numbers are likely largely due to playing on the top line in the OHL and not so indicative of his own ability.

- I believe this method underrates Armia and Zijanebad whose difficulty of playing against men as 17 year olds is underrated by a straight NHLE comparison.

-All current USHLers look weak by this comparison. By way of context, Habs draftees Pacioretty and Leblanc put up an NHLE of 21.53 and 20.16 respectively during their draft seasons.

- I am fantastically unimpressed by Tyler Biggs. A guy that big with talent should be destroying the level of competition he's facing. His reported lack of hockey sense leads me to believe that he is unlikely to have a future as an offensive player in the NHL (unless he pulls a Lucic, but that is very rare).

 

NHLE is a concept developed by Gabe Desjardins of behindthenet fame.

 

EDIT: I found an error in the USHL stats that have been corrected. The main change is Grimaldi's numbers have jumped significantly.

Fanpost content is created by members of the community and is not published by the authors, editors, or manager of Eyes on the Prize.

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