EOTP on CJAD this aft, and other Habs links
OK, the wedding is out of the way. A fantastic weekend it was!!!
The honeymoon will be over the summer, so it's back to business for yours truly at EOTP.
First matter of business, I will be joining Barry Morgan on CJAD's "The Habs Show" during their panel segment, just after the 6pm hour to discuss the Habs season and what to look forward to for the team.
On yesterday's show, former Canadiens coach Jean Perron gave his opinions on what the team needs to do going forward.
The Habs have been out of the playoffs since Thursday night, but it seems that one Boston scribe is still taking his shots at Le Bleu, Blanc et Rouge.
The Boston Globe's Kevin Paul DuMont takes some digs at the"inglorious behavior " in Game Seven of P.K. Subban and Roman Hamrlik.
"WWE has its place on the sports menu, and if Subban wants to take his talents there, the bet here is that he’ll be a humongous talent in that arena, too. But now would be a fine time for the rookie to choose whether he wants sport or spoof.
"Such stunts bring down everyone, including Subban’s teammates, his opponents, the officiating crew, the game itself. If he thinks it’s all a yuk, then why should anyone else, especially the paying customers, think differently?"
Personally I was not impressed by Hamrlik in Game Seven, but taking a shot at Subban is another same old, same old that we've heard all season. Perhaps DuMont, Don Cherry and the like need to join Tim Thomas, who stated Subban was a "travesty to the game," and get a bulk deal when they wash their white robes and caps.
In the meantime, The Checking Line looks at the king of biased and classless hockey broadcasting, Jack Edwards. This guy is so bad, even the boys at Stanley Cup of Chowder don't like him.
Since we're on the topic of Boston radio idiots, here's a pair who need no introduction. It starts just short of the 1:40 mark.
Stu Cowan on the option to put Scott Gomez in the AHL
Chris Stevenson and how the NHL addressed Zdeno Chara's Coke problem.
The Hockey News' Lyle Richardson looks at the off season situations for the Habs, with the key issue being whether they can/will re-sign Andrei Markov.
Kyle Roussel with the Good, the Bad and the Ugly of the Habs season.
Wayne Gretzky rookie card sells for $94,163
This day in Habs history: The Montreal Canadiens defeated the Chicago Blackhawks to win their thirteenth Stanley Cup. Jean Beliveau had an assist and the Game Seven winning goal. Le Gros Bill had five goals, and five assists in the series, en route to receiving the first Conn Smythe Trophy in NHL history.
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I wonder how many of these journalists are going to freak out when Gomez is back in a Hab jersey in October with nary a peep from the org about any intent to trade him or bury him? You’d think that Martin continuing to play him all year would be a pretty good clue about his intentions and what he thinks of him.
And you’d think after players such as Plekanec had similar year-long offensive slumps, Habs pundits would realize what that looks like, and hold their panic. Ah, duh, what am I saying… it’s Montreal we’re talking about. >.<
Huge difference though, Plekanec’s off year he still scored 20 goals.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Gomez has never been a goal-scorer, and the core point is the same: a down offensive year which led to all kinds of unrelated complaints about him, just like Gomez. So many people are just completely blinded by stats, specifically that one points total stat, which I think is pretty ironic.
People are acting as if Gomez just fell off a cliff from which he won’t climb back up from, which is why you see silly suggestions like burying him in the minors and (heavens forbid) buying out his contract. We all need to realize that he should be back to at least last year’s scoring level. At least, because there’s reason to believe, given the Habs’ massive improvement 5-on-5, that he could do better.
So any decision on Gomez has to come from that starting point, not on the basis that he’s a 35-point center for all eternity, and even less that he “is also bad defensively and takes bad penalties”, which are side-effect fabrications coming from his lack of counting numbers.
If a guy doesn’t score, he sucks at everything. Unless he’s not expected to score, then he’s great so long as he moves his feet and hits people, regardless of whether he’s actually effective as an hockey player…
the Habs’ massive improvement 5-on-5, oooh really
you’re the stats geek but I think most can sus out that the climb from a 24th placing for 5-on-5 play in 2010 to I think 23rd in 2011 is neither a significant improvement nor something that will revitalize a declining asset like Gomez .
lets deal in facts. Gomez who is also embarassed by his own non-performance has been on the decline in production since about 2007 and all the wishing, hoping and minutia (aka microstats) will not change that. in 2010 it was wait for next year, in 2011 regular season it was wait for the playoffs and after a few assists and a -6 rating it’s wait till next year. you can wait till the next coming but you cannot afford to pay $7.357 in cap for an average 2nd line centre no matter how good his intentions may be.
the only stat of consequence is that Gainey and Gauthier decided to dump Koivu for the “top 5 skater in the NHL” known as Gomez. unfortunately Koivu and Gomez have the same points over the last 2 years but Saku was at a cap hit of $9,000,000 less
btw; how did McDonagh fare in his first year, what about Higgins as a 3rd liner and still Valentenko to come…enjoy Gauthier gentlemen, the CH will not win the Cup or very much with Gauthier in the lead chair…the summmer will be hot hopefully Molson waves a cooling effect and discards the village idiot know as the Ghost
If you discount the shots for/against arguement, then the Habs still went from a bad 0.90 (22nd) to a average 1.01 (16th) 5 on 5 ratio. Habs were good (5 on 5) to strong (both special teams) at all situations, the biggest thing holding them back was a terrible penalties drawn to taken ratio.
by Stephan Cooper on May 2, 2011 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you’d find it extremely hard to prove Gomez isn’t bad defensively, or at least wasn’t during this season. The way he was used in the final few playoffs games indicates even Jacques Martin lost faith in his line, not trusting them to cover Patrice Bergeron. And he was eaten alive at evens by Chris Kelly, who isn’t exactly a superstar, or even a very good player.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
What makes you think he was bad defensively? He was fine; he was on the ice for a grand total of four more even-strength goals than Tomas Plekanec, and the goaltending behind them was about the same. Not saying he was as good as Pleks (tougher matchup, harder zone starts) but to say he was “bad” is quite a stretch.
People who think Gomez was bad defensively basically project his point totals into other parts of his games. And/or they are heavily affected by his terrible plus/minus… which is also a function of his lack of 5-on-5 points.
Gomez’s bad PDO streak didn’t stop in the regular season; he managed to finish the playoffs with a 914 PDO, and an 867 save percentage behind him, both lowest on the team, to go with the same goon-level on-ice shooting percentage. Yeah, he wasn’t brilliant against Bergeron and you have to figure that factors in, but still!
On your first paragraph are you talking regular season, or playoffs? Because I’m talking playoffs. What I saw was a player who was almost always last back on the backcheck, on on for 8 Boston goals in the last few games.
Now as for his +/- not reflecting his defensive play, I agree in part, but on the other hand I think it shows a lack of commitment. When a season is going the way it did for Gomez, and he knows he isn’t getting the offensive breaks and isn’t producing, he needs to double his efforts defensively in order to contribute.
Allowing the same # of even strength GA in a 38 point season as in a 59 point season isn’t good enough. I don’t accept that as ok. If you’re not producing, do the little things to prevent it from going the other way. Gomez didn’t do those things aside from a handful of games this season.
In game 7, Mark Recchi’s goal was caused because Gomez had 2 easy chances to clear the puck and he reached for it twice instead of skating for it. I find that to be unacceptable of a “two-way player”.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
In the regular season, Gomez was above water in shots on goal. The problem, offensively was that the puck wouldn’t go in. What did you think he COULD have done? He could have curtailed his offense even more to concentrate on his defense, but that probably would have tanked his puck possession, which would have been counterproductive (the best defense is having the puck at the other end). He could have focussed more on defense and maybe trimmed four or five goals against — at the cost, likely, of a similar number of goals for.
Gomez produced enough offensive opportunities that he should’ve gotten his usual 40-point season, possibly even more. That would’ve put him comfortably in the plus. It’s all about the on-ice shooting percentage for him.
Usual 40-point? He should be 60 based on past performance
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s talking 40 ES points.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah, makes more sense. Carry on then.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I completely disagree that it’s all about shooting percentage. I agree that it played a large part, but I’m not one to believe that Corsi numbers and scoring chances for/against give you every detail you need to know about performance. Not all shots are equal, and not all scoring chances are equal. At a certain point the stats that are recorded can’t tell us everything, eventually, your most hated word, perception has to come into play.
It’s very easy to see Gomez giving up on plays left and right, all season and all playoffs. Reaching instead of skating for pucks, being lazy. Whether his line gets scoring chances or not has less to do with him and more to do with every person on the ice. At a certain point failed chances become a moot point. Gomez will end up with another disappointing year in 2011-12 if he doesn’t bring more effort. What concerns me is that during his so-called mea culpa he was struggling not to laugh, so I’m not entirely convinced that he gives a crap.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
If Gomez’s on-ice shooting percentage had been up to his usual (and keep in mind, by this we largely mean HIS TEAMMATES’ shooting percentage)… he’d have 40+ even-strength points, he’d have 60 total points, people would grumble a little about his salary (which is too high), but no one would notice him “giving up on plays left and right, reaching instead of skating for pucks”, and otherwise lacking in effort.
That’s what ‘perception’ without that all-important ‘validation’ results in.
Heck, when we’ve gotten to the point where you ascribe a lack of caring to a guy by trying to analyze his body language, you’re far in the deep end. Exact same thing happened to Price in previous years.
This is where we disagree, because I would still be critiquing Gomez’s laziness if he was producing points, the difference is it would be more acceptable to most people because of his production, not that it wouldn’t matter.
As for analyzing body language, you’re right, it isn’t fair. However his attitude in that interview irked me. I don’t expect him to be Carey Price in 2009 and be borderline in tears, because he’s a vet and he’s seen it all, but I expect a straight face for a couple minutes while he’s talking about the worst season of his career. I know it’s his personality to laugh everything off, but that interview got uncharacteristically under my skin considering the subject matter.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I think one of the problems with evaluating Gomez’s performance by eye is that he has such a lop-sided skill set. His shot is an atrocity for an offensive player, he doesn’t have much of a physical game and I don’t think his defensive converage is very strong for a suppposed two-way centerman. On the other hand his puck carrying skills, stickhandling and overall skatting abilities are in the elite range. Thus a larger than normal portion of his defensive value is in the ability to move the puck from the defensive to the offenisive end. This can have a big effect on overall scoring chances against while not being part of what is traditionally seen as a core skill of a defensive forward.
As his value is mostly strongly seen in the transition game, in effect Gomez’s effect on the game strongly resembles that of a strong puck moving defenseman rather than that of a offensive centerman. This can be seen in his offensive numbers profile with a small amount of goals to total points.
by Stephan Cooper on May 2, 2011 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Very interesting perspective, and I can’t help but agree. Very, very interesting perspective. Never thought of it like that.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions
without that all-important ‘validation’
MM:
for a fellow completely grounded (some would say sunk) in micro stats and the “validation” they bring you have spent a large part of your time depending Gomez based on hypotheticals that haven’t happened and that may never happen. for example "If Gomez’s on-ice shooting percentage had been up to his usual.. "….at some point you do have to deal with the reality of what is, you know the facts as they exist. he has been in a production decline since his 84 point season of 2006. he is no better than 4th or 3rd in regular season faceoff wins (dependings on # of tries you think is valid). his optics which you discount have been pointed out by AB and Robert L…what else is there for us to get excited about this player who tries but falls short ? he has the 11th highest cap hit in the league and of those above him only the injured Malkin got less points this year with 37 even Chara scored more points
at some point a once useful player declines and Gomez seems to be there now. they had to trade Halak because of Gomez’s cap hit and will have to pass on Wisniewski for the same reason. as good a veteran as Gomez may be he’s no longer worth the trouble his contract has brought. but in fairness to him the real issue are those who thought he’d be better than Koivu. well $9 million later he isn’t and a whole lot less in other areas
Shooting percentage has been repeatedly shown to be highly volatile and subject to luck-driven variations. That’s the reality you need to deal with.
If Gomez was actually declining, his puck possession would get worse. His numbers actually improved relative to last year. Intuitively puck possession is a lot more physically demanding than shot strength/accuracy (let alone his teammates’ — because remember, it’s largely his teammates taking the shots that don’t go in).
Oh, and another thing: you really need to stop being blinded by stats. Evaluating players solely on their point totals is going to give you a very lopsided view of them.
Shooting percentage
MM:
no doubt S% does show what you claim it does. my point was your use of “if” Gomez’s shooting was up to it’s usual…." but it wasn’t and your use of coulda/shoulda/woulda scenarios happened if Gomez did this or that defies your stats based analysis …you base your defence on hypotheticals then tell the rest of us perception isn’t valid. WTF
so his salary of $8 million wasn’t for assists, goals, faceoffs won but for puck possession…you’d make a great player agent pulling out obscure numbers and getting huge paydays for your efforts
Stephan Cooper above has lent more analysis that illustrate that other criteria is not complimentary to the Gomez is Good theory…let’s just agree to disagree
for me Gomez is a symptom. Gauthier is the problem and has been since 2003. more the pity he to large measure with erroneous pro player evaluations ruined Gainey’s GM tenure in MTL
Gauthier has been extremely shrewd actually. His work on the team’s masonry (the bottom-6, replacement players, etc.) has been fantastic, and in his one big decision, to keep Price over Halak was the right call. The majority of his acquisitions have had a great bang-to-buck ration. The only clear stupid mistake he has made from a hockey standpoint is Kostitsyn-for-nothing, and yet people insist to me that that one was necessary for non-hockey reasons.
The man clearly knows how to build a team.
"Gauthier has been extremely shrewd actually"
MM:
I will not attempt to disuade you from your delusion as you have shown in the past and currently to be a devotee of a man who is a complete disaster, bereft of the nuance of the deal and simply a man who is frankly a joke as a GM across the league.
let me give you some major examples of where I derive my opinion of his uselessness in building a team and I’ll start back in July 2003 when he was first brought on as Director of Pro Scouting and Assistant GM up to today where he holds the title of GM as of Feb 2010. Gainey titled Gauthier “the man I trust the most to take over” in the press conference when BG stepped down and as the Director of Pro Scouting and AGM Gauthier was clearly Bob’s go to guy on all matters related to pro players. Bob may have pulled the trigger but Gauthier loaded the gun and had been loading it since 2003. in fact I would say where the CH finds itself today on the Pro side is more the doing of Gauthier, his player evaluations and recommendations to Gainey than Gainey’s own input. there are many examples of Gauthier ineptness but I will stick to the highlights
1. trading Ribeiro in 2006 for Niinimaa who effectively still had a broken ankle. Mikey Ribs was clearly a highly skilled player and shit disturber in the dressing room but the CH did Doug Armstrong a major favour by giving a 2nd line centre for a broken ankle
2. signing Sergei Samsonov as a UFA in 2006 only to learn he hated playing in MTL for Carbo then traded him the next summer
3. claimed Leighton from Philly in 2007 again to trade him the following summer
4. claimed Traverse in 2006 to trade him the same year for Biron
5. made the miscalculation of keeping both Souray (who clearly wasn’t coming back to MTL) and Streit (whom they thought was only a poor d man) after the deadline and got no asset for either player
6. in 2008 traded a gifted centre Grabovski to Toronto for a D prospect Greg Pateryn who has yet to raise his head in the show
7. gave up a 1st and 2nd round choices for Tanguay who played for 52 games and then let him walk at the deadline.
8. in 2008 signed Laraque to a 3 year $4.5 million contract only to find out after the signing that George had major back issues and had turned pacifist. members of MTL media with connections in Edmonton knew of Georges unwillingness to protect his players but Gauthier didn’t. George’s unwillingness to engage was also a significant reason in Komisarek deciding to leave given that Mike had to fight the Beast Lucic on his own without intervention by BGL
9. did not offer Saku Koivu a contract because they thought he no longer had the on ice ability. unfortunately for the CH headshed Koivu has matched Gomez’s points over the last 2 years for $9 million less in cap hit
10. decided that signing Spacek at 35 years of age (making cap hit permanent except for trade) for 3 years at $3.83 per was better than signing Beauchemin or other younger D men. they passed on Beauchemin because Gauthier thought he had back issues which clearly he didn’t
11. advised Gainey to make what will clearly be the 3rd worst trade in CH history while claiming that they were getting a “top 5 skater in the NHL” in acquiring Gomez and his remaining 5 year $7.357 million per year cap hit. Gomez had been put on the block for the entire 2008 season by NY but no one was stupid enough to bite. not only did they gift wrap cap relief for Sather they then turned around and traded their #1 D prospect (McDonagh); Higgins, who was an excellent skater/ effective PK guy able to play part time on top 2 lines and a rock hard nasty D man in Valentenko. McDonagh is a top 4 D man in his rookie year, Higgins after bouncing around has become an effective 3rd liner in vancouver and Valentenko will join McDonagh in NY next year. this signing also also forced them into trading Halak since they could not afford his new contract due to Gomez cap hit. Wisneiwski may see the same fate . only the trading of Roy and Chelios will prove to be moves more debilitating to building that Cup contender than acquiring Gomez .
-those are the major deals (and a minor 1 or 2 acquisitions) that show me that Gauthier has no clue in terms of pro player evaluation as the Director of Pro Scouting and AGM. for the most part his evaluations as above have been proved to be incorrect in terms of whom they acquired, released or traded and the CH basically came out on the short end of all deals except for; Kovalev for Balej (2004) and Rivet for Gorges and 1st round pick with which Timmins took Pacioretty. now for his GM moves
1. in the summer of 2009 it was suggested to Dominic Moore that he call the CH because as he and his agent were advised the Martin system fit Mooore perfectly. the CH said no thanks. Moore signs with FLA. in January 2010 the CH trade for Moore surrendering a 2nd round choice and paying the remaining $1.1 million in salary. in the summer of 2010 (Gauthier now the GM since feb) Moore wanting the same salary was allowed to leave as a UFA. at the same time they give Pouliot a $500K raise for essentially no reason as his in season and post season effectiveness did not warrant the raise…(will come back to this)
2. they then sign Halpern for $650K to replace Moore. Moore is younger, faster, more creative and similiar in faceoff efficiency as was Halpern. now the $650 for Halpern and the $500K raise to Pouliot was the $1.1 Moore got from Tampa…from this move they rewarded a player that didn’t earn it, they got older and slower with Halpern and lost a 2nd round pick for 1/2 season for Moore…that’s Gauthier and the nuance of his dealings
3. they dump Boucher because he was a clear threat to Martin and his defense first system. we can argue who is the better coach, who has the better system but Tampa is in the second round w a 41 yr old goalie and every player from Drummondville to McGill to Hamilton to tampa love this no nonsense coach who is simply a thinker in the new NHL were Jacques is a pre-lock out dino
4. Larry Robinson via his agent calls the CH and says he wants to coach in MTL. CH says we’ll call you after playoffs. they don’t because HoF Larry is clearly a threat to Pearn who is a friend of Martin and Gauthier. must be all the Cups Pearn has won and his stellar pro career and his HoF position ? I’d rather have Larry mentoring PK than Pearn
5. dumping Sergei for nothing, dumping D’Agostini for nothing, dumping O’Bryne for a prospect 3-4 years away all the while these guys flourish with their new teams while they could not play for Martin….even if I agree they had to be traded and I do not Gauthier got zero value or value less than he gave away
6. Gauthier did pick the right goalie to trade. one wonders how he managed to get that right but he did. but he created no market for Jaro and only dealt w 1 team St Louis. from whom he picked a prospect who may pan out to be a 2nd line centre. unfortunately the CH already have 2, 2nd line centres under contract in Gomez and Plekanec and neither seems to be going anywhere. what about TJ Oshie what about Berglund what about opening up the bidding to those that needed a goalie…you trade the hottest goalie on the planet to the first caller….what would have Philly surrendered last summer to cure their goalie issues. certainly not Giroux, perhaps Carter but more than likely a slumping slower developing Van Riemsdyk with whom they were losing patience…we’ll never know. but what Gauthier did was dereliction of duty
-seems to me where we talk about 2003-feb 2010 as Gainey’s main advisor on pro deals or feb 2010 to now as GM Gauthier is worthy of being fired. you think he’s shrewed perhaps your CH coloured glasses need a prescription update…then again maybe you’re a front for Donnie Beauchamps and the CH PR department….either way the facts speak for themselves and no advanced nor micro view will change that
as for the Wis for a 2nd well unless they sign him it’s another overpayment given that Snow only paid a 3rd to get him from Anaheim
Gauthier most overrated GM who slice by slice is killing this team. his tenure is a fucking onion —-the more you peel back his involvement the more you cry at the results
Nice of you to focus on one side of the last 7 years.
Now if you could finish up the second half of this analysis so that we can have a proper balance and not this biased view of the situation.
As we all know, this utter incompetence you have shown could not possibly have lead to 6 out of 7 seasons in the playoffs and 4 playoff victories, as well as a young exciting core of players.
another apologist
well CB:
seems another apologist has raised his little head unfortunately your CH coloured glasses failed to read throughout the analysis Pro player evaluation being the criteria of the discussion
1. most if not all of the young exciting core of players come virtue of the draft and the man responsible for that area is Trevor Timmins who is responsible with his scouting group for the amatuer side of the house and had ZERO to do with Gauthier as Gainey defered to Timmins and his crew on amateurs as he did with gauthier on the pro side
2. most of the young players Gauthier has acquired in his pro deals are still trying to find finding their way in the minors and may never surface. but if you want to say Boyd, Palushaj, Burnival, Pateryn are major hits be my guest but you’d be alone
3. Eller is the best of the lot but as mentioned before acquiring another potential 2nd line centre (as described by the scouts and GM in St Louis that drafted him and that in their opinion is not a winger) when you have Gomez and Plekanec is just not very bright
it’s lauaghable you think the facts are biased. a broken ankle is not bias its a historical fact; the Gomez bust is a historical fact, Laraque and his effort is historical fact etc etc etc
but since you seem so right to prove Gauthier’s merit perhaps you’d like to list his major accomplishments on the pro side outside of picking Price over halak….
in the end it’s not where you find yourself that is at issue it’s where you could be. instead of being a bubble team just making or missing the playoffs you could be a top tier eastern conference team, instead of being smoked in the first round you’d be in the semis and finals on an ongoing basis. the Red Wings have been in the top 5 for the last 15 years that’s something to emulate not the one and done Gauthier and his apologists seem to think is now acceptable. if you lower the bar enough you will make your objective
just making the playoffs in the last week or in the last game on an OT loser to the worst team in the league is not an accomplishment. as for last year it was mascara on a pig and the only time in Gauthier’s 8 year tenure they got out of the 2nd round. wow what a record to emulate, the Wings are shaking in their boots as is the rest of the league
yeah forgot Gill as an acommplishment. Gionta and Cammy are overpaid with long term which adds to the cap issue for an extended period but as players are fine…in my book Gauthier’s failures are many, outnumber any accomplishment and are more debilitating than team building . he got the CH to bubble status if that’s good enough for you great …it’s not for me…but please tell me about his wonderful record on the pro side
Your analysis is laughable because it is dripping in confirmation bias.
Things that don’t agree with your bias are minimized, things that confirm it are deified.
This isn’t worth a breakdown or rebuttal because you aren’t looking for discussion, you are looking for a fight in which you will stonewall and name call and ignore anything that does not confirm your viewpoint.
I’ll pass.
by Chris Boyle on May 4, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
well Chris nice debating point but it has nothing to do with reality…..you make no points, you offer no substantive defense of the Gauthier record because there isn’t one to be made….your position is one of an apologist without justification who avoids the discussion under an obtuse veil of decorum of his own making and fabricating outcomes out of fear of being found out…tremendous indictment on your position and of gauthier’s work. not even one of his greatest admirers has the courage nor facts to defend the Ghost’s work
keep you head in the sand…the CH PR department loves you for it…you should apply for a grant from Donald Beauchamp you do wonderful work on his behalf and as a front for the CH good news department
what a joke…
He indeed couldn’t hold his own against Bergeron, but it was atypical for him. On a game by game basis, Gomez took the though assignments and held his own very well all season long something Eller and Desharnais couldn’t do, bleeding chances left and right as soon as they played against the opposition’s top 6. Despite his awful counting stats and subpar offensive game in general, the Habs needed Gomez to be competitive this year.
This could change next year however as Eller is obviously on the way to supplanting Gomez as we all saw by his huge leap forward in the playoffs. But that’s not a problem, it simply gives the Hab’s three lines that can play against quality opposition. The salary cap implications are little more of a problem for 2012-2013, but that’s relatively far away and with a bit of regression to the mean and luck, Gomez should have acquired a bit of trade value just in time for his real salary to dip below his cap hit, making him even more tradeable. He has to be gone one way or another in 2012 however, not because he’s unplayable, not because his existence singlehandedly disproves everything about microstats, but simply because the Habs will need the money more than they will need him with Plekanec and Eller in the lineup. I have nothing against him being on the team until then.
I don’t have a problem with Gomez on the team, because I know that he’s a good player. However the fact that the organization has literally zero options with him DOES concern me.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he’s not much of a concern as long as his usefulness outweighs the cost of overpaying him by at least 2,5 millions. The amount of pressure he soaked up this year made him indispensable to the team’s success and he will likely still be a very useful part to have next season.
The options are limited, but fortunately they open up a little in 2012. I doubt he will be tradeable before his salary drops to 4 millions in 2013, but, depending on how the salary cap evolves, he may even be kept until then. Not ideal, but it would only be a nuisance for a year.
I would hope that Gomez is gone by the beginning of the 2012-13 season, as I can’t see a scenario where we can keep him while Price and Subban are up for big contracts, not to mention Eller may earn a sizeable raise next season.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I looked into it a little and with raises to Price, Subban and Eller (assuming cap hits close to those of Luongo, Shae Weber and Plekanec’s old RFA deal, which may be a little generous) and that’s close to fit under cap. It all depends on how much the cap rises in 2012-2013. It wouldn’t take much maneuvering from Gauthier to make it work.
I would rather have Gomez gone in october 2012 too, but 2013 is probably more realistic. As I said, a one year nuisance.
Who knows, maybe we’ll be surprised next year and Eller can make a big leap forward and Gomez can mop up weaker competition. The one thing about Gomez’s contract that bugs me a bit is I would like to see Montreal add more depth on the wing position as far as scoring goes, and his cap hit severely limits that capability going forward.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
One possibility for the Habs is to go get another forward this offseason at the price of using a cheap stopgap on defense. Given Gauthier’s record when shopping for bargains, that may not be a bad plan at all.
You mean via trade or FA?
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Either way. Assuming the Habs keep their RFAs, Markov, Darche a Halpern type bottom 6 veteran plus a Picard-Mara type cheap number 7 Dman, they should have in the neighborhood of 5 millions left under the cap, probably more if the rumored 62 millions cap becomes a reality.
The conventional wisdom has them go for a top 4 defenseman in free agency, but if they could get Gill or a similar man for 1,5 they would have a descent defense and enough money for a winger who can play on the first or second line, bumping Kostitsyn on Eller’s wing.
At first leaned toward trying to keep Wiz or get a similar guy in FA since the defense has been such a strenght this year, but the more I think about it, the more I think the team would be better served with a forward.
Think LA would like to get rid of Penner?
I don’t know if Penner would be worth it. And I think the benefit of having a guy like Wiz would be much more than Penner. Plus we’d need to trade for Penner. Of the UFA wingers the only guys I’d be interested in are Brooks Laich or Simon Gagne (Gagne at a severely reduced price).
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Penner would provide a decent upgrade to Kostittsyn in the role of tough minutes winger with Plekanec, but whether he’d be worth is strongly dependant on what LA would be looking for in return (yes if its a about what LA gave Edmonton, no to any higher).
Laich and Gagne would be good for that role, if they’re not availible then someone like Glencross, who played like a borderline top six in Calgary, might be a good addition to the third line.
One out of left field suggestion would be to get in on the Ales Hemsky sweapstakes if the Oilers are foolish enough to deal him (or know that the can’t sign him). A strong even-strength RW for ~4 million on the cap would be worth giving up some assets for.
by Stephan Cooper on May 2, 2011 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I think come october the habs will have added a somewhat expensive denfenceman and an affordable forward or the other way around.
It all depends on the price. If a Penner or a Hemsky is avalible at a price the organization is able to pay, they should go for it. Two strong top lines and a Eller-Akost duo roaming against the opposition’s weak minutes would provide some much needed goalscoring.
If there’s nothing, then to keep packing the blue line would be a good way to go. It’s a better FA class on defence.
I would love to have Ales Hemsky on the Habs, but I think Edmonton is looking for a king’s ransom for him.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Continuing on the Gomez slant.......
Arpron Basu posted on his CTV site a very good column last Saturday April 30th on Scot Gomez. Its a worth column on our friend. From everything posted here today it is safe to assume that we see little Scotty back on the club next October. But what line is he centering? We can’t be seriously sending him back out on Line #1. I mean bless his heart Pleks played his heart out in the playoff series. And just tell me how thrilled you were to see him score that SH goal in Game 7. Yes we have seen him get those chances before and score on some of them. But have you seriously….EVER seen GOMEZ get those type of opportunities like Pleks does and bury them……ooops forgot …36 games and counting. So back to my question??? Aren’t we debating on whether he has to beat our D.D. at camp for the #2 line? I can’t see us giving him 19-20 plus minutes a game again. Maybe DD,SG & LE are all bagging pretty even minutes this year or ranging within close proximinity of one another. Thoughts???
Eller isn’t ready to take Gomez’s job just yet. Maybe in a year, but for now, Gomez is the Habs’ #2 center.
DD? DD doesn’t have a prayer. He may get to be a top-6 winger but he’s not taking Gomez’s job and even less leapfrogging Eller for it.
People keep talking about DD as a second line center replacing Gomez because l’Antichambre kept propping him up and because he racks up points against the softies, but judging from utilization, Eller is ahead on the depth chart. Honestly DD against second-liners is a recipe for disaster. Throwing the kid to the wolves like that would do him and the team no favors.
I think the Gomez situation would cause any fan base or media reasonably involved with the team to freak out, largely because forwards get judged on counting stats irregardless if that is right or not.
What I’m bracing myself is the mediots who will sing the same tired old tune about how the Habs are too small to compete because of an ideological comitment to judging hockey players by their dimensions rather than results.
I also expect hand-wringing about the UFA defenceman from people who can’t see the merits of having the money and cap space and expiring contracts to be able to pick and choose which defensemen are wanted back. The large amount of defense in the organization means that they probably can take advantage of the “hometown discount” rather than pay open market prices. I’m thinking next year it will be Markov, Subban, Wizniewski, Gorges, Spacek, Gill and Weber which should be one of the top units in the East.
Also, I don’t really know Jean Perron but if he thinks the Habs should dump prioritize Wizniewski over Markov and should improve their physical play while dumping Kostitsyn (most physical of the current top-six) then I’m pretty sure he’s an idiot.
By the way, that’s sure adding a thoughful, well considered and original contribution to the discussion. The Habs should improve their physical game I’m sure no one has suggested that before!
by Stephan Cooper on May 2, 2011 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Your assumption about Perron is correct, he’s a complete idiot. The top 7 on D that you named is exactly what I’m hoping for next year. That might be the best defense corps in the east if Markov stays healthy. Could be aided a bit more if Emelin comes over, I don’t hold any hope of that happening but if it’s ever going to happen it’ll be this year.
As for Gomez, counting stats aside it’s easy to see when a player is struggling. He was crap when it mattered and that’s a big deal. He needs to bounce back in a big way next year because it’s the only option for him and the organization.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Gomez to Hamilton would be by far the best option for the Habs. Unfortunately not the most realistic one.
Gauthier’s brain would have to melt for him to bury Gomez in the minors, unless some Brad Richards-level fantastic alternative/pipe dream falls into his lap.
So you really think 60 points is worth 7.5M on a team that is going to be cap-strapped next year?
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
The Habs are going to be cap-strapped with the cap potentially going to 64 million and several contracts coming off the book? News to me.
Gomez is overpaid, but 40 even-strength points, very strong puck possession skills, two-way skills, and the ability to match up effectively against the toughest competition, all these things have a lot of value — and that’s what we can realistically expect from Gomez next year.
All depends on your definition. However, having 34M tied up in 9 players is an awful lot… leaves 18-20M for ~13 players. Not an enviable position to be in in my opinion, especially with a number of their RFA’s meriting raises.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
They’ve got the starting goaltender, 2/3rds of the top-6, and half the D including the #1/2 D-man and a top-4 D-man covered. That’s a lot of the more expensive contracts already handled. A lot of those 18-20M are going to be spent on one-million-or-less type players.
Half the D? The only D under contract are Spacek and Subban.
NEED a capable backup which will run you ~2M.
RFAs Weber, Desharnais and Pacioretty (assuming healthy) are all due raises, as is UFA Darche.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Most/all of the RFAs are formalities. Weber, Desharnais, and MaxPac are coming off their entry deals, have no arbitration rights, and have limited NHL experience; none of them are getting huge raises, and given MaxPac’s bonuses, you’re probably actually saving cap space relative to last year.
Darche isn’t getting a big raise either; he’s had a good streak, but he’s not such a good player that you can’t let him walk and replace him if he demands a big raise, even if it will make l’Antichambre apoplectic.
Goaltending is plentiful and cheap. Auld’s salary was 1M. Another capable backup will cost the same. If you spend ~2M on your backup and you feel you have an elite starter, you’re overspending.
So you are fine with Price playing another 70 games next year?
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Why not? Not like he stunk it up in the playoffs.
Realistically the Habs should score more (just by getting average shooting luck) which should mean more wins which should mean less reliance on goaltending, so Price could be rested more.
Different philosophy than my own but thats allowed. Going back since the lockout I feel the evidence supports resting goalies during the regular season. Seems the teams that advance farther and have better goalie performances are those that limit their goalies to ~3600 minutes. Haven’t finished that analysis though.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Yet Price wasn’t rested and outplayed a rested Thomas by a fairly wide margin.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
That is quite a subjective analysis and even if it were objective fact it would still be meaningless as every analysis has outliers.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s not subjective at all, based on every stat available Price was far better than Thomas in that series, and I think anyone with eyes would tell you the same.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I would wager Thomas owns the even-strength metrics.
Regardless it is ultimately meaningless to the general trend.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Yet Price had 100% SVP while shorthanded and facing much better scoring chances.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
My point was that not every metric went to Price as you stated.
And how does one quantify quality of scoring chances?
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Whether it’s quantified or not, it’s accepted that there are more scoring chances on the PP and they are of better quality. I don’t think that’s an arguable point.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Were we watching the same Boston power play?
Another instance where the general trend is not supported by the specific examples.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Either way the Bruins outchanced the Canadiens in the series and Price still managed better numbers than Thomas.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Given the modern goalie market, finding someone competant to play 20 games shouldn’t cost more than a million anyway. You might even get it for ~800,000. Lower tier goaltenders are quickly becoming victims of the cap era, much like the deflation that veteran bottom six forwards have experienced.
by Stephan Cooper on May 2, 2011 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
And yes, they have a lot of value… but is it 7.5M of value? I would place it closer to half that total. The 7.5M kind of value is limited to the Crosby’s of the world really.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Gomez is an approximately 5 million dollar value player. The problem is that he’s consistenly weaker than usual in the two stats that blind everyone to everything else (goal total, point total) but he’s very strong in many key areas (5-on-5 scoring, puck possession, defensive play, etc.) that savvy GMs such as Gauthier will value.
It’s more value than the Habs are likely to be able to get if they bury Gomez and try to spend that money some other way, not least because tough-minute centers are a rare and valuable commodity (that’s why the Habs traded for Gomez in the first place).
Incidentally, I think you’re underestimating how much talent costs. Crosby and Ovechkin signed as RFAs, remember, which held their salaries down. If they were on the UFA market, max-salary contracts would be very likely.
Ovechkin was a max-salary contract at the time and Crosby was very close to being one as well.
Of the top-25 in cap hit I think Gomez would be the one I would least want on my team… first glance he would only rate over Drury who has been sidetracked by injury.
http://capgeek.com/leaders.php?type=CAP_HIT
Don’t get me wrong, we are in relative agreement… he is worth the 4-5M range which is why his 7.4M is hard to swallow. A buy-out would be incredibly stupid but burying in the AHL? I don’t know… seems like you could get better return for that money on the FA/trade market.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Explain to me how you’re going to get a tough-minutes center to replace Gomez without overpaying him too by 2 million.
If you don’t do that, then you throw away next year, and that’s the Habs’ window-of-opportunity. It’s not an option.
Capable of playing effectively against first- or second- line opposition in today’s power-on-power line matchups, either matching or ideally outchancing them.
In other words, capable of eating up minutes against tough competition, ergo “tough-minutes”.
Okay, that works. Just wanted to make sure I was on the same page… I was thinking more along the lines of seeing more PK time and getting a higher percentage of defensive zone starts.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Makes sense. From what I saw Gomez doesn’t see many defensive zone starts.
Then again, Toews is nominated for the Selke despite 62% offensive zone starts this year so what do I know?!
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Definitely true for the Selke, thus Datsyuk getting the nomination despite missing nearly a third of the season.
The Vezina and Hart aren’t as reputation based though… usually hard to argue against the finalist in my opinion.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
The Hart is completely based on point totals instead of what the award is meant to be awarded for. Daniel Sedin being nominated is an absolute joke with his zone starts being unprecedented as over 70% in the offensive zone. Not to mention that Ryan Kesler was more important to Vancouver than either Sedin this year.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
The Vezina is the most reputation-based trophy there is. And the only stat the voters consider is wins (though that’s thankfully changing a bit). Evaluating goaltenders is hard enough as it is if you watch them all the time, so when you have to vote on other teams’ goalies…
Wins most certainly doesn’t seem to be the most important… Thomas was 6th in ’09, Miller 4th in ’10 and the likely winner this year is 9th in wins.
I agree that the evaluation is tough as the two key stats are heavily team dependent.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Mathman, Gomez wasn’t able to take those tough minutes this year. Look how horrible he was in the playoffs at evens. It’s possible, even likely that he’ll be much better next year, but I don’t think handling tough matchups or solid defensive play is something that applies to Scott Gomez at this juncture, not until he earns it.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Answered above. Gomez was perhaps not as good as usual, but saying he was crap is projecting into other parts of his game.
It’s become practically impossible to have rational discussions on Gomez. Everyone’s perception is affected by the amount of bad press he got.
I didn’t really read any of his bad press, so that’s not how my opinion was formed. It was formed by watching him play. And Martin’s decisions in the playoffs to give Eller and Desharnais the tougher matchups and let Gomez (attempt) to dominate the 3rd and 4th lines said it all when he continues to get hammered.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
…errr, what? Gomez played the bulk of all the playoff games versus Bergeron, except game 5 where Pleky got that matchup.
Midway through game 4 Gomez was put against the Kelly line, and it looked like while Martin had last change that’s how the matchup stayed.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
So your argument is that Gomez sucks defensively and Martin lost all faith in him because… he got outplayed by Bergeron (by far the Bruins’ best center) one game?
He was outplayed by Bergeron in 6/7 games, but no, that’s not my argument.
I’m saying Martin saw that he couldn’t compete with Bergeron and put him against Kelly. Kelly outplayed him massively as well, despite being a 3rd line center at best.
Your entire point today was that Gomez is able to take the tough minutes, I’m saying he demonstrated quite clearly that he couldn’t this year in the playoffs.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
The playoffs are a small sample size. He was bad in those games, but over the course of the season he was reliable. That has to be taken into account when assessing Gomez’s season.
Small sample size or not, it’s when your play matters.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t disagree he was bad, but I think it’s a little unfair to judge him based on a handful of games.
I know his regular season wasn’t stellar either, but he was reliable against tough competition.
His line really missed Pacioretty in the playoffs.
The whole team missed Pacioretty. The injuries this year were brutal, looking at the east right now I don’t think it’s a stretch to say the Habs could have been a legit contender to come out of the conference if healthy.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe it’s selective memory, but Gomez really seemed to be at his best between Max and Gionta.
Other combinations didn’t work as well (Kostitsyn anyone?) some of it is certainly due to simple fluctuations, but complementarity between players shouldn’t be overlooked.
Gomez was definitely at his best between Gionta and Pacioretty. Although I think for that kind of cash he should be better at carrying his line.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
No argument there, but we knew from day one he wasn’t going to be a Crosby-style 7 million$ player. Unfortunately.
Of course, but it would be nice to see a bit more versatility, or at least see him shoot more like he did earlier in his career. I don’t expect 20 goals from him at any point, but 15 shouldn’t be out of the question.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
For a guy whose defining caracteristic was putting lots of pucks on the net, his shot totals have fallen off a cliff since he joined the Habs.
It’s very odd, I wonder why it happened? Why change his game so much? Martin’s system maybe?
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s my first guess, but the Habs have been a good shooting team this year, 9th in the league. Was the system in New Jersey that different than what Martin is doing?
Part of if may have been moving even more of his shots for to his usual linemate Gionta, who had his highest shot total since his 48 goal season and one of the highest in the league. On the surface this seems wise as Gionta is a much more dangerous shooter.
However I think it may be possible that doing so telegraphed to opposing defense that Gionta was the only player worth covering and depressed both player’s shooting percentage. But that’s just a personal, untested hypothesis.
by Stephan Cooper on May 2, 2011 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Considering Gionta’s predatory nature around the net, and his escapability coming in, I’d like to see Gomez shoot into the goalie’s feet more often to get rebound for Gionta.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Was the ‘DuMont’ intentional? Amused me since KPD is an absolute jackass and hack… how he is a HHoF writer is beyond me.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 9:52 AM EDT reply actions
Dupont is an asshat. I don’t know a single Boston fan who bothers reading what he spews, unless they want a laugh at his flowery prose.
Precisely. Or if they want to be reminded of the Thornton trade and ownerships miserly ways for the 8,952,354th time.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds like the Bostonian Jack Todd.
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by Andrew Berkshire on May 2, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
taking a shot at Subban is another same old, same old that we’ve heard all season.
I would assume this was due to Pernice’s ‘trust fall’ with Gregory Campbell which was pretty sad. Didn’t see anything else negative out of him for the remainder though.
Problem is, those kind of reputations stick with a player for a long time and will hurt their chances of getting calls when they are actually merited. Referees don’t like being made to look foolish.
by BobbyOrrsBastard on May 2, 2011 9:58 AM EDT reply actions

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