The Sheer Ridiculousness of the Injury Situation
So, Scott Gomez went down to injury against the Hurricanes. Some fans bizarrely see this as welcome news, but this story isn't really about Gomez's injury, it's about the organization limping through the second month of the regular season. The injury parade is not limited to the players in the NHL, but it has also cursed the Canadiens AHL affiliate, the Hamilton Bulldogs. The Bulldogs played a game last night against the Binghamton Senators in which only eight forwards and four defensemen were under contract to the Canadiens. That is right, as it currently stands, the Canadiens have only 12 available call-ups.
The current Collective Bargaining Agreement limits teams to a 50 man roster of players signed to NHL contracts in any given season. The Canadiens entered training camp at 47 players signed, 5 of which were goaltenders. Amongst skaters, there were 42 players to choose from, some of whom showed up at camp already injured. Andrei Markov is nearing a return, and was the most prominent injured Canadien, but so were Lars Eller, Louis Leblanc and Brendon Nash. Soon, injuries at camp sidelined a variety of players, and the defensive depth was already in question, so Pierre Gauthier signed Chris Campoli (contract #48 of 50). After losing Jeff Woywitka to waivers, the team quickly signed veteran AHL D Joe Callahan to fill his spot. Then, with injuries at forward and uncertain depth at center, the team made the Petteri Nokelainen trade, which also brought AHL D Garrett Stafford in exchange for Brock Trotter and a 7th round draft pick. That brought the contract total to 49.
That one spot looms large. Gauthier won't want to waste it signing Bulldogs center Philip DeSimone, or even one of the few remaining free agents out there. I doubt he puts in a waiver claim for Blake Comeau, either. He'll want the flexibility in trade negotiations as the deadline approaches.
So this is where we stand. If things get real bad, there is the Amateur Tryout option that the Wild used last night to sign a 51 year old beer league goalie before their call up arrived via plane. By the way things look, the Canadiens might need to go that route in the near future for a 4th line forward or a 6th defenseman.
After the jump, a look at the team's current depth chart. Yeah, it's painful. I hope no Habs player looks at it on their smart phone and walks into a lamppost and is out of action for the next two weeks.
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28 total forwards under contract, 19 are healthy. While the Canadiens aren't suffering terribly in this regard, the Bulldogs are: 6 forwards that were slated for Hamilton are currently injured. The Canadiens still have a decent selection of three likely call-ups to replace Gomez if they wish in Blunden, Willsie, and Leblanc, but any callup makes the Bulldogs that much worse. The aforementioned DeSimone, signed to an AHL-ECHL contract to avoid using one of the 50 contracts? His five goals in 17 games makes him the team leader.
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Joe Callahan |
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With St. Denis up with the team currently, the Canadiens could dress 7 defensemen for the Friday matinee game vs. Philadelphia and let the Bulldogs off the hook here. While the Bulldogs are arguably only down two defensmen (depending on whether Montreal would send Emelin or Diaz down if healthy), the absence of their top three currently is pretty large to overcome.
St. Denis now holds a very rare distinction in this year's Montreal team: he actually has been a healthy scratch.
In total, the Canadiens have 44 skaters signed to contract, and only 30 of them are cleared to play. That's only a health rate of 68%, which must make Montreal the NHL equivelant of Tanzania on this list (and I'm being generous).
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What's equally surprising to me...
…is that despite all these injuries, the Habs were able to pull this off: http://behindthenet.ca/fenwick_2011.php?sort=6§ion=close
Makes you wonder exactly how good a healthy Habs club would be doesn’t it?
In the meantime, the Habs have the most man-games lost to injury in the league and with the return of Crosby look poised to take over the CHIP lead, too. It’s so stark that it’s starting to become part of the prevailing narrative.
Markov’s the only D that I think really effects that number. To be honest, I doubt Spacek and Campoli bring a lot more (or maybe even any more) than Weber, Diaz, and Emelin do. With both Gomez and Kostitsyn out, there’s an effect at forward, too.
Games missed by Cammalleri, Eller and Gomez previously also have a cumulative impact. That number should improve, but not by too much, IMO.
The most positive story of the Habs so far is the great defensive depth the team has accumulated. Only now are people noticing after the shutouts last week.
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Funny to look at that and realize the Canadiens would only be the 4th best team in the Central Division. Even if Columbus had regular luck and goaltending this year, they’d still probably look like a bad team.
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And, I also like how Montreal is 12th when leading by 1 and 11th when leading by 2. It’s not great considering their overall scores, and they do sit back a little, but they’re still pretty normal in terms of doing that.
Boston, however is above 50 percent in every situation and really enjoy blowouts. Bastards.
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Well, it helps that Boston has the second-best PDO in the league. After being the runaway leader last year.
Bastards.
Still, Boston’s stats are skewed by a home-road game ration that’s almost two-to-one. Very meaningful skew, seeing how they are 55.76% at home and 45.81% on the road. That split seems a bit extreme and is likely to close up some, but there’s a not-inconsiderable chance that Boston is a bit weaker on a more balanced schedule.
Incidentally, I think this is where improved health will help the Habs — having more tough-minutes players will make it much harder for opposing coach to exploit the weaker elements of the Habs’ lineup on the road.
Well, it helps that Boston has the second-best PDO in the league. After being the runaway leader last year.
See? They’re regressing!
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by Bruce Peter on Nov 24, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
My god, knowledge of this page would have made that article I wrote last week 1000 times easier. Damn it all.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Nov 24, 2011 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
I think it’s brand new, might not have been there last week.
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Okay, I feel much less like I wasted hours compiling a graph when it could have taken far less time now.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Nov 24, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions
From what I understand about Fenwick, which isn’t much to be fair, doesn’t our Fenwick mean that we’re poised to be one of the top tier teams in the league? If we had a competent PP (which Markov, by all accounts, will fix the hell out of), would we have won four or five of those tight games (The two BUF games, the FLA game, the first NYR game, etc.)?
Pretty much, though so far this season the Habs on the road are merely middle of the league. Any one game is going to have a whole lot of randomness which means the result won’t be what you expect. Over the long haul things are looking good.
The penalty kill isn’t as good as it has been the last month (no team can expect to not give up 4on5 goals) but it’s great with the shot prevention (top of the league or near it if I recall).. The powerplay was actually very good in terms of shot attempts the last time I checked, near the top.
Last game notwithstanding the powerplay has been pretty good with the goals in the last little while too. Keep that going, add some degree of health to get Martin some better road matchups (hopefully improving the road performance) and it could be a very good season.
The PK is first in shot prevention by a wide margin, and the PP is 4th overall in shot creation.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Nov 25, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
The PK is going to be very, very good, but a 100% save percentage is unsustainable, and I think the Habs’ shot prevention will regress to the mean some. It’s still going to be up there, mind, just maybe not by that big a gap.
Of course. I think they’ll end up with the top PK in the league though.
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by Andrew Berkshire on Nov 25, 2011 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
But what if we.......
Played all the time with the 2 man forechek. I wonder what our numbers would look like across the board. I know 1st off we’d have to put JM on injured reserve because he’d have a heart attack over that. I mean 4 plus games was just way too much to stomach for him.
But seriously, if we changed our point of attack say when Markov got back. I’m sure JM is thinking he can’t keep it up becaause of all the young D-Men out there now + Gomez out of the line-up. But say Markov is back….why not go back to 2 man in and get back to that aggressive play. If you think about it….the Ranger game could have been a 5th win in a row say for the Blunden Blown Call incident. I think we really do have to change up to be successful and win with our speed. It will create more chances and lead to putting pressure on the opposition more often. Similar to football stat – time of possession…the more time spent inside their blueline means less time inside ours and less scoring chances against – leads to less goals against. Conversly, more time in their end should lead to more scoring opportnities, more PP’s, more goals for and most importantly → more W’s which is really what we’re after. It really is the difference in this league….if you want a win…you go get it….you don’t wait for a Win to fall into you lap unless you think like JM..
"It's only through change we learn to grow".
If the Habs played all the time with the 2-man forecheck, they’d get burnt in transition all the time. Lord knows they’ve done it enough times to over-aggressive clubs. That’s why it’s important to dose the aggressiveness and pick your spots, particularly against good teams with lots of skill in the back-end.
Against a shallow, decimated defense such as the Rangers’, it’s a great strategy because those D-men simply don’t have the skill and poise to transition the puck quickly. Against a club like, say, Pittsburgh, or indeed Montreal, you’re just gonna have Letang or Subban pass the puck up and catch two of your guys deep.
You’re right about the effects of puck possession, but as it is, the Habs have already been of the very best puck possession clubs in the Eastern conference. It explains their great success five-on-five. The only way the Habs are going to become a higher-scoring club than they are now is when they start scoring on the PP.
And stop giving up goals on the PP, as well.
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by Bruce Peter on Nov 25, 2011 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
Special teams goals:
PP – +9/-4
SH – +2/-7
Even. That’s despite a 104% combined special teams conversion rating.
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by Bruce Peter on Nov 25, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
I know. I actually like to adjust the percentages based on SH goals. Well, I rarely actually do that, but I always think that way.
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by Bruce Peter on Nov 25, 2011 11:54 AM EST up reply actions

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