Habs Top 25 Under 25: #1, Carey Price, FTW!
Ever since Trevor Timmins shocked the hockey world by taking goaltender Carey Price fifth overall in the 2005 Entry Draft, the son of the chief of the Ulkatcho First Nation has been the subject of a lot of debate, both logical and illogical. Goaltending and the Montreal Canadiens always makes for popular water cooler talk, newspaper copy, blog article or broadcast television feature in this country, and Price has provided plenty in all those various disciplines in his five years in the Canadiens organization. In this age of the internet and every Habs game airing on cable television, there's been all kinds of crazy following the young man as he ascended to the role of starting goaltender for the Habs, including "scandalous" photos of him partying in Mexico, and disdain over him joking with "Cabbie" on The Score after a playoff loss. He's been booed, gotten angry at the fans, gotten angry with his teammates, and even shot a puck after a Washington Capitals goal right at the goal celebration in this past playoffs.
And despite all that, he's still the Canadiens greatest hope, the top player in the organization under the age of 25 according to our vote. Five of the seven participants gave him a first place vote, and the other two gave him a second. So why, despite all this turmoil, are we still so very high on his abilities?
For starters, there aren't many goalies who have played as much top level hockey as him at his young age. Ryan Miller was just getting his feet wet as a professional at Price's age, playing 15 games for the Sabres but ultimately not cracking the lineup for another two years. Cam Ward won the Stanley Cup at age 22, only to struggle the next year and post an average season the year after. Marc-André Fleury was coming off a year in which he had a .906 SV% and an .880 SV% in the playoffs, only to break out with his first big year at that age. Carey's quick start, followed by his well documented struggles in 2008-09 and then a decent, but inconsistent, year at age 22 aren't exactly uncommon. Most goalies aren't even in the league at his age, Price has put up decent numbers for a goalie who has been there.
Does that make him the next great goaltender? No, but there are many legitimate reasons why we're still quite optimistic about his progress.
Perhaps the most intimidating factor about Price is his level of athleticism for a goaltender that is listed at 6'3", 219 lbs. His lateral movement allows him to challenge shooters from the top of his goal crease, giving very little room on the first look, and yet still push off quickly to make a save on the one timer. Witness Matt Cooke of Pittsburgh get robbed on a comedy of defensive errors here:
His glove hand, much maligned during the 2008 Stanley Cup playoffs, certainly doesn't look like a weak point anymore. When Price broke into the league, his goaltending coach was Roland Melanson, a butterfly specialist who aided Jose Theodore into a top tier goaltender (albeit briefly). Melanson's style helped Price make an immediate impact, but ultimately made Price a bit of a creature of the habits he was being taught. This isn't Melanson's fault, per se, but probably a natural reaction of a student to his teachings: he was relying less on his natural ability, and more on the fundamentals of goaltending as taught by Melanson. His glove was being put in the proper position, but Price seemingly couldn't make any adjustments when he was going down into his butterfly.
When Melanson was replaced by Pierre Groulx last year, the first noticeable change in Price's game was to maintain an aggressive stance. Groulx's approach matches that of his offseason coach, Eli Wilson, and is more based on the hybrid style popularized by the wave of Finnish goaltenders that have come through the ranks. It seems to have worked well for Price. It plays to his natural size advantage, and allows for a more reactionary approach for his glove hand. When he goes into his butterfly, he's also very quick to get back on his feet. This could all be a matter of improved patience, but seeing the pattern of Melanson's previous protigés leads me to believe this was a targeted change by Groulx.
Another strong asset of his game is his puckhandling skills. It's a bit of a double-edged sword for Price: he's extremely confident in his abilities, and that can sometimes make fans tense up when he spends a lot of time looking for an outlet pass and a forechecker is baring down on him. But on a team that has struggled in breakout plays during his tenure, Price has certainly helped the team's cause.
So he's big, quick on his feet, has strong reflexes and is a great puckhandler. And we're supposed to believe this guy sucks because he hasn't dominated the NHL before his 23rd birthday? It's generally the belief of the panel here that Price has yet to reach his peak performance age, and there's no reason to think that he can't do so in Montreal. I suppose that's where we might differ from the prevailing common wisdom surrounding the goaltending position in Montreal: that Price needed out and that Halak had claimed the title in 2009-10. For all the talk about Price's alleged shortcomings, that he was somehow not mentally strong enough to handle the unique pressures of the Montreal market, that he let bad goals and games haunt him, or that he was immature, no one ever gave real tangible evidence as to why that was.
I can't possibly explain what is going on in Carey Price's head when he gets booed, or what the last thing he thinks about before he goes to bed is. To me, any talk of a player's lack of cajones is simply projection by the person making the accusation. The fact that Price has never, to anyone's knowledge, requested a trade or bemoaned a lack of playing time suggests he's taking the experience in stride to date. He's clearly been frustrated, of that there is no doubt, but he's back for two more years as of yesterday without a contract holdout.
Of course, a discussion about Price wouldn't be complete without one on Jaroslav Halak. We don't know if Halak will be a better goalie than Price, but we do know a rational decision on the matter was pretty hard to come by after the season was over. Price's season was a failure, despite posting improved numbers from 2008-09, and Halak's season was unbelievable. We've seen a season like Halak's before in Montreal, in fact we saw it twice in the last decade. Jose Theodore in 2001-2002 and Cristobal Huet in 2005-06 posted similar seasons, and it didn't predict future success for either goalie. We won't know how Halak could've handled the additional expectations (there is that pesky mental analysis again), but we do know that goalies generally don't repeat such high end seasons with regularity. It's quite possible Price posts a similar season to Halak in the next couple of years. And it's possible another trade scenario could present itself at the time. Would the Habs deal Price in the same situation?
Is it wise to build your team around a goalie in today's age of disposable goalies? Inevitably, some team will always think so. It's prudent that the Habs don't continue to rely on superhuman goaltending efforts in the future, because we haven't seen many teams that do so have success in the Stanley Cup playoffs, or the regular season for that matter. That being said, Price is still an incredible talent, and the consensus choice as the best young asset the team currently possesses. He's won internationally, in the AHL, and has had great seasons in major junior and the NHL already at age 23. He'll likely have a few good to great years in the NHL, and if our panel is right, they're betting on a good to great career. It's a risk we're willing to take based on the evidence so far.
And if not, the guys that have bet on him might end up working with Price again in the future, this time as rodeo clowns.
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Pierre Groulx
Isn’t Pierre Groulx the goaltending coach?
I want to say this about Price. Part of the reason there is such formidable pressure on him is evidenced in this list. He isn’t now just the only good young goalie in the system, but realistically he is one of two players who could be front line guys. Being in a front line position already (compared to the others who are still new to Montrealers) only makes it more burdensome.
Handling this pressure will be key for the young guy who looks to go where Theodore ultimately couldn’t.
Yes Groulx is the team’s goaltending coach. Eli Wilson is Price’s private coach in the off-season.
Kevin van Steendelaar
http://www.yathehabsrule.com
htp://www.twitter.com/yathehabsrule
by Kevin van Steendelaar on Sep 3, 2010 8:53 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Correct and Groulx. I’ll throw his name in there. Both are from the same school as far as I know, so in essence, there’s less confusion in the message.
Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.
For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.
Needed to get a bit creative with the wording there. Thanks for the correction.
Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.
For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.
G&G have made it quite clear that they are staking the team’s future success on Carey Price. He is their golden boy and his career as a Hab will ultimately define their legacy as Hab GMs.
I believe that Price will have the next few years to hone his skills and gain experience so that the team can make a legitimate run for the Cup in 2013/14. To judge Price on a game to game basis is such a waste of time. I would even go so far as to say that we shouldn’t even judge him on this season’s play. The two year contract is perfect for both parties. It gives Price enough time to show what he can really do so that he has a chance to hit paydirt the next time around. It also allows G&G to see if their gamble has really paid off.
As I mentioned yesterday, if Price and Subban can develop into all-star players then we have a legit chance at winning the Cup. If they falter, then this decade will be a lost cause. That’s certainly a lot of pressure to place on two young men who are not yet 25. However, it’s the reality of our prospect list. The two names at the top must become blue-chippers who form the building blocks of our next Stanley Cup team.
Interesting analysis
I am sure there are a lot of us out here saying “As a Habs fan, yeah I can see how this Top 25 will look.”
After reading the analysis and the comments all the way through I can’t say I disagree with much. (Not that it matters whether or not I do).
Much of what happens pre-draft is speculation what a team needs, then how to get it, then how to compliment what they get. When Price was drafted, and we had Halak (virtual unknown) backing up a Huet, I figured “Good job”. I didn’t get the feeling then, nor since, that Price was going to bring a Cup within 3-5 yrs, that he’d win Vezina’s and Jennings trophies with whoever he ended up playing with, I thought “Nice” because I saw a kid who’s managed to play well in each level of hockey. I didn’t think “My God what a major score”… you know why?? Because despite WJC and AHL successes, Goaltenders can’t win on their own. And we have been in continual debate, here and everywhere, over Carey’s talent. HE HAS IT.
Winning at the WJC and AHL Carey did have NHL caliber players in front of him, as he has had since coming to the Habs. He’s also young and impressionable, and at a time overweight, and cocky. He’s had the talent since before he came to be a Hab.
We can say all we want about his 60 NHL Wins, and who they were against, but HOCKEY IS A TEAM SPORT, and WINNING HOCKEY GAMES IS DUE TO A TEAM, and when a team shows little to no faith in you, you lose. So bashing my comments about Halak (previous posts) based on Team stats rather than goaltender stats isn’t really relevant. Halak played fabulous and the team ahead of him took time to gel and came together in time to show the NHL that the talent in Montreal is among the top…. whether that’s because Price wasn’t in net, forcing Halak to play better, or that the TEAM was finally healthy enough to do the things Gainey believed they would be able to do.
Carey’s faults aren’t in the fact that he doesn’t know his positioning, or the fact that he’s not athletic, or that he cavorts around smoking and drinking and partying. He’s athletic, and plays positioning well, Robert mentioned the double edged sword of his puck play. But he’s not a reckless player by any means.
His Talent has never been a question. And as you commented about Pyatt and Pouliot in terms of where they ‘could’ go and where they might eventually end up, we could as well put Price in the “what if” category as well.
I believe, in assessing talent as it relates to their experiences in the NHL. And as much as PK doesn’t have the time in to analyze like we do for Carey, I believe PK will be the face of this team.
I say that for two reasons. Talent in position…. we’ve got NO ONE like PK. Markov is good and will be a great mentor for him. Carey…. has been given 2.5 mill this year and 3 mill next by virtue of management not being competitive enough in the market to secure a) a true vet who will win games and tutor Carey, b) another younger goaltender who would push Carey to be the TALENT that he is. He has been ‘chosen’ over and over again by the Brass in La Belle Province, and yet, despite his early accolades, promise and talent Carey needs to learn to be the leader of this team if he’s ever going to play to his abilities.
I feel trading away anyone who could have pushed Carey for the spot is a real injustice to Carey. If the Brass are SO CERTAIN of his Abilities and what he will become, putting other talented players next to him so he can prove critics and fans wrong would be the right thing to do. Robert, I appreciated the clarity around the Desjardins deal, and it makes sense they wouldn’t have kept him around long term. But is Robert Mayer their next big thing?? Jason Mississaien? Sanford and Auld are certainly not the Brass’s answer for getting us to the playoffs if Price faulters…..are they??
by Cruisin4aBruisin on Sep 3, 2010 1:16 PM EDT reply actions
For an illustration about how the expectations on Price are borne out of not thinking things through or going with gut feel, let me lift up a quote from an article from Pat Hickey in the Gazette: http://www.montrealgazette.com/sports/Contract+worth+goalie+improves/3476751/story.html
There’s a few examples of not understanding things in there (such as committing the cardinal sin of judging a goaltender on his team’s record) but I want to bring your attention to his gem: “It’s a bargain if he can surpass the numbers he put up as a rookie.”
So. Price was a .920 goaltender in his rookie season. If he kept this up as his career average he’d be the best goalie in the league, and a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame. And yet, Hickey isn’t satisfied with merely matching these numbers. Noooo, Hickey wants Price to surpass them.
Basically, and though he clearly does not realize it, Hickey writes that for Price to be a success, he expects him to be the best goalie in NHL history.
And thus are ridiculous expectations born.
correction
“Hickey writes that for Price to be a success, he expects him to be the best goalie in NHL history for 2.75m a year.”
There, corrected.
Well said
So tired of hearing the win/loss record as a reason to throw Price under the bus. Well said Mathman. I had just read Hickey’s article and he writes it like my 20 year old cousin who bases all of her Habs opinions on whatever she has read that morning.
Wrong again, Mathman
2007-2008 Canadiens GP41 W24 L12 OTL3 SO3 GA 103 SA1,282 SP.920 GAA 2.56 MP 2,413
Don’t you think he could have meant to improve in the games played, wins, shutouts, GAA columns?
You are so narrow-minded by focusing on the one stat that you care about, your presumptions are dead wrong, and so is your verdict on Hickey. And the exaggeration at the end (“he expects him to be the best goalie in NHL history”) drives me crazy, because it is borne out of pure ignorance concerning philological accuracy.
I don’t know what else to say.
Well forgive me for assuming Hickey meant Price needed to be a better goalie, and not miraculously cause his team to improve.
“Don’t you think he could have meant to improve in the games played, wins, shutouts, GAA columns?”
All of those are team stats to some extent. Obviously he can only play as much as his coach will send him in so Price has no practical control over games played. Likewise, as has been repeated ad nauseam, wins is a team stat; a goalie has zero impact on GA, and no impact on shots against either. That gives the goalie a limited ability to affect wins. The fixaiton on goaltender wins is at best ignorant, at worst stupid.
GAA is nothing but shots against times save percentage. So either Price takes fewer shots, which is obviously a function of team defense and not goaltending. Or he improves his save percentage, which amounts to what I was saying.
Shutouts? That’s basically GAA of 0 for one game. Playing more and playing behind a better defensive team will help, but shutouts are largely the result of random good streaks. I could care if a goalie ends up with 0 shutouts if he maintains consistently good puck-stopping. Shutouts with the 35-plus-shots-a-game Canadiens? Gonna be tough. He’d need a less craptastic defensive team in front of him to get a better shot at racking those up.
Most importantly. none of this actually means he will be a better goalie. Only save percentage covers puck-stopping and nothing else. All the others? They depend more on the team than the goalie.
My “best goalie in history” statement was facetious, but it’s true that asking Price to routinely surpass his rookie season is unreasonable and it would be unreasonable for any goalie who’s not Dominik Hasek in his prime.
Now, it is quite possible that Hickey could have meant he needed to improve those stats, and has no idea what goalie stats are valid. But then that doesn’t exactly help prop up the value of his statement either. I dared to assume that when Hickey said Price needed to surpass his numbers, he implied that Price needed improve his goaltending. I didn’t think he meant “he’ll play more and the 2010-2011 team will be better than the 2007-2008 team” team, first because that’s out of Price’s hands, and second, because he’ll be sorely disappointed if he thinks that.
There’s a reason we all fixate on save percentage around here. As mainstream goaltending stats go, it’s the only one that’s worth a damn. There’s advanced stats that are more meaningful, but if you limit yourself what you see in your average sports section, then there’s save percentage and there’s a load of team stats. If you’re going to talk numbers, stick to the ones that actually mean something for the task at hand.

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