Understanding the Halak Trade Shocker
"I cannot believe the Canadiens have traded the player who singlehandedly allowed them to beat Washington and Pittsburgh and make it to the third round of the playoffs! What were they thinking!"
The reaction is a common, and angry one, upon first take. Fans, after all, are supposed to be passionate!
It is a broad summation of the feelings of Habs fan immediately after hearing news of the trade, but it is quite typical of what information is consistently fed to brains in small bits and bites, usually and largely, through the media.
Often, what one selects to believe determines reactions.
Jaroslav Halak is one heck of a good goaltender, and his greatness will be determined by his longevity.
But my friends, things must be placed in proper proportion, analysed some, and disected smartly, before rendering an absolute opinion one way or the other in deciding whether the Canadiens chose the right course of action.
If this were the summer of 1985, I suppose I would be devastated had the Canadiens traded Steve Penney to Calgary for Joel Otto and prospect Brett Hull, placing all their hopes on a skinny kid named Roy.
The comparison is totally superfluous of course, because we have benefit of hindsight.
But maybe it isn't all that out of whack.
Back in 1985, few people had Patrick Roy pegged for greatness, especially a season away. Glen Sather, then GM of the Oilers, wondered aloud what Blues GM Ron Caron was smoking when he sought after Brett Hull.
Meanwhile, folks were comparing Penney to Dryden and no one batted an eye!
A parallel always sells a story, garners attention. The media angle is always serving you the quickest angle to come to mind. It's not often logical, but neither is a Big Mac.
Here's what people tend to forget in this instance, but select to remember in others.
Hockey is a team game.
The success of a team depends on the contribution of all its members.
Sometimes, when one player make a great and noticeable contribution, it tends to steal the headline, making it appear as though team success was a matter "singlehandedly" accomplished by one main contributor.
The big deceiver is that team success is rarely accomplished by anyone singlehandly. Look no further than the Blackhawks and Flyers teams in this springs's classic to witness two clubs loaded with contibutors who stepped up.
The Canadiens this spring, we're no different, except in that they did not have as many able to step up to defeat Philly.
Halak, awesome as he was, could not do it alone, and couldn't have done it alone.
In fact, he actually did not do it alone!

The Canadiens built a defensive wall in two rounds that played to their strengths. The system prevailed in keeping shots at angles and powerplay chances snuffed by clogging middle lanes.
It took the contribution of every Canadiens player on the ice to make this ploy work. If there had been weak links in the chain, such a tactic would have broken down.
Halak being as great as he was, this method made him appear even stronger, as it should.
Goalies are always spotlighted for their work, good or bad. As the last line of defense on teams, that is inevitable.
Fans understanding of goaltender properity is limited to stats are as simple as wins, loses, goals against and save percentage. The error is often in thinking that they make up the entire story.
There is likely no player in all of sport who benefits more from the contribution of teammates around him than a goalie. The numbers are team numbers, reflected upon one person.
In baseball, the pitcher is another unique position. If your favorite team had just acquired a pitcher in a trade, the first thing you would look at is his win total. If it were good, you likely would never think to check out how many homeruns were hit during his starts, or what offensive support his teammates generated for him while on the mound.
In sports, fans are conditioned to think with immediate assessments on grand scales.
Wasn't the Flyers' Michael Leighton not thought of as a potential Conn Smythe candidate back about ten days ago?

Goalies are either placed on pedestals or treated to a lightning rod, because it is the easiest assessment for a fan to make.
Have you ever heard of a defensemen or a left wing controversy?
It's always a goalie controversy, and a left winger is never a flash in the pan.
Goaltending history is littered with stoppers described as flashes in the pans. Andrew Raycroft, Jim Carey, Byron Dafoe, Kelly Hrudey. The list goes all the way back in time, practically to the first men to strap on pads.
Why that is, is very simple. And if you still do understand, return to where this article first mentions a team game.
Why Price over Halak?
All along the debate of one goalie over another, every possible case has been made for either.
In time, with Halak's rise, I considered that the Canadiens couldn't lose in chosing either goalie to part with. In my mind, we could just as easily be discussing the trading of Price today.
In one tally of things, Halak fared no better against the Flyers this post season than Price two playoffs back. That is not a judgement on either goaltender. It might not even be a comparision.
What it does assess, is that in front of either goaltender, against a particularly tough opponent, the Canadiens as a team, have not progressed. One could say, the Canadiens, as two very different teams in 2008 and 2010, did not get by the Flyers either time.
The Canadiens, and Pierre Gauthier, do not look at question in mere terms of which goalie to stick with. The concern is how to best improve the team.
In sum, with what was seen in these recent playoffs, improving the team can improve the goaltending.
The Canadiens, faced with the prospect of losing a key free agent in Tomas Plekanec, decided to deal from their position of strength to strengthen the team. That is what good managers do for teams wanting to improve.
In improving the team depth wise with this deal, it allows the Canadiens the chance to build and not step back.

Who made who?
For those still thinking that Halak singlehandly took the Habs six weeks deep into the post season, consider again whether it was Montreal stingy fortified setup that made Halak stand tall or whether it was vice versa.
The real answer is likely good doses of both, as teams play off their goalie strengths just as goalies often play better with leads.
The thinking is likely that with a fortress built around an even larger goalie in Price, with a better balanced attack and defense in front of him, the Canadiens can still acomplish higher goals. If anything was proven in the Eastern Conference playoffs this spring, or the NHL for that matter, it's that no longer are there dominant goaltenders, or that one is absolutely required to win.
Now if the Canadiens were perhaps able to present a dominant goaltender in front of a competitive, better balanced team....
The deal inside the deal
Today, the names of Lars Eller and Ian Schultz are not as significant as they may one day be. The fact that they are not name players hurts the immediacy of the perception of this deal on impact, but as both players become better known, those opinions will change. Already, with word on Eller being positive, outlooks have opened and some have changed.
The biggest complaint will be that Gauthier obtained no name players for the playoff hero he traded. Before that is criticized, two things should be considered. First off, it could be none of merit were offered. Gauthier has alluded to T.J. Oshie, David Perron and David Backus being off limit in talks with St. Louis. In regards to others clubs and potential discussions, speculation is meaningless. There has been rumour that talks were again held with Philadelphia, and with San Jose and Chicago. Philadelphia had previously refused Jeff Carter, Claude Giroux and now my guess is that they would also not part with James van Riemsdyk.
Additionally, it is consensus thinking that the Canadiens were ill positioned to take on an established player's salary, especially prior to cleaning up its own salary and free agent matters. In this present complication, bringing in another high salaried player hardly clarifies the Canadiens cap concerns.

Money to spend, and not money spent
As it stands, Montreal still have approximately $14M to divide among as many as seven players they would like to return to fill out their roster. One of those is Tomas Plekanec, another is Price.
Trading Halak allows Gauthier to better manage assets financially over the next few seasons and the addition of Eller, who could produce at a nice ratio for his salary, simplifies rather than complicates.
Retaining Halak may have conspired against everything that hoping to be achieved in a team sense. Halak's arbitration would have come up after the major moves of the free agent season, and that is an eventuality the Canadiens couldn't afford to consider with Plekanec hanging in the balance.
With the goalie market on July being open wider, the time to deal one was now. Gauthier's window for trading would have narrowed by then. Concerns for adding an adequate backup for Price is likely to be adressed soon enough. There will be 17 goalies on the open market come July, with the Islanders Martin Biron looking like a solid candidate for Montreal.
Chris Boyle, a goaltender himself, is as close to an expert on the subject of Halak and Price as I and many at this site have encountered. Insightful as can be, Chris looks at different methods of evaluating goaltenders and projecting their worth. He understands what and what not to compare when holding one up against the other. Some have said of Chris in the past, that he seems to have made the Habs goaltending controversy the reason for his existence. Others have said that his type of analysis is what the Canadiens should be basing their thinking on. In fact, it likely is what they do in regards to goalies. If you've never seen Chris' work on these pages, your starter is here, here, and here.
With all that, Chris has taken a shot or two in the past for being a defender of Price. Often, in some eyes, that was taken as a slant against Halak, but that has never been Chris' angle. It was often in the manner that the goalies were assessed in comparison to one another that Chris took issue with.
I asked for his opinion immediately after yesterday's trade, and here is what he had to say.
The biggest thing I took from this deal was the strong character of Pierre Gauthier.
I never knew what type of GM the Habs were getting, but I was pleasantly surprised to see a man who took the hard route because he believed he was right. The easy thing was to trade Price, appease the media and fanbase and sit back and say "What did you expect me to do" if Price turned into an All-Star.
The focus of blame would have moved from him and the onus would have been placed on Halak. If Halak had faltered the fanbase would have turned on him. Instead he decided to risk his job on HIS decision, not the fans. That takes guts.
That is the type of GM I want running my team.
Emotion needs to be removed from this scenario. Long term vision replaces short term focus. A whole body of work needs to be studied, not 6 months. Age needs to be factored and the most important aspect of the scenario is cap space and free agency.
After looking at Rinne and Lehtonen's recent contracts, Halak was getting nothing less than $4M per. Everybody needs to remember that in order for Halak to sign a long term deal that the Canadiens would need to buy up 1-3 UFA seasons. He was not going to be cheap after his playoff run.
On the other hand, Price had an average season and is an RFA for 4 more years. He is not arbitration eligible and after missing 6 of is 8 bonuses (see below) earned closer to $1M than 2.2M. So a raise would have been in the area of $1.5M to $2M at most. The Canadiens don't need to go long term with Price for another 2 to 3 years, at that point guys like Hamrlik and Kostitsyn will be off the cap.
This was the smartest financial decision the Canadiens could make. The fact that Price has a better resume than Halak at the age of 22 makes the decision that much easier.
Some fans are going to hold Price responsible for this, that is the biggest risk in this scenario.

Carey Price's 2010 cap hit was 2.2M, but most of it was incentive laden bonuses from his entry level deal. In order for him to hit the 2.2M bonus, Price needed to meet the following performance bonuses. (Bonuses reached in bold.)
With Price only meeting 2 of 8 bonuses his actual salary was not 2.2M and was probably closer to just over 1M in 2010. Therefore in order to sign Price the Canadiens could play hardball and offer him the qualifying offer and a paycut or they could offer him a small raise and lock up both goaltenders for 5.5M for the 2011 season.
(i) Minutes Played: 1,800 minutes minimum
(ii) GAA: GAA > median GAA of all goaltenders who played 25 or more Regular Season Games.
(iii) Save %: Save % > median save % of all goaltenders who played 25 or more Games.
(iv) Wins: 20 (Player must be goaltender of record, 30 minute minimum*)
(v) Shutouts: Shutouts > median number of shutouts of all goaltenders who played 25 or more Games.
(vi) End-of-Season NHL All-Rookie Team (achieved, only applicable to 2007-08)
(vii) NHL All-Star Game (selected to play or plays-achieved in 2008-09)
(viii) NHL All-Star Game MVP
Here are some interesting, non redundant links on the Halak trade, some written on impulse.
Habs trade Halak to Blues, Gauthier Gives Walsh the FU - Habs Rule!
Who might become Price's backup - Habs World
Habs Management Get Fleeced In Uneccessary Trade - Lions In Winter
Obituaries: Halak - The H Does Not Stand For Habs
It's Price's Time to Show his Greatness - Elliotte Friedman CBC
0 recs |
80 comments
|
Comments
This was definitely a crazy day! I was shocked at the Halak trade but understand that it is basically a salary dump for prospects with skill and size which we need. I am happy for Price and I feel that he will rebound. What really floored me today was the news that Larry Robinson wanted back into the fold any way that they wanted him and they did not return his calls. This led him rejoining the Devils. It was like finding out that Saku was not coming back or they traded Chelios again! Just a heartbreaker, plain and simple!
a very good article....
……so much so, that i wish i had my vote back.
I’ll be honest…i was angry too. This was the ULTIMATE surprise in that, unless there was going to be a Brinks truck coming to Halak’s house; he was eventually someone elses cross to bear.
The Eller grab interests me. because it could spell the end of Pleks; who knows.
One of the things folks should remember is this-the future is very uncertain. Stl. in spite of their talent, was a very undisciplined team and it showed in the loss column. Who really knows if Halak will make a difference.
Right now…this move is prolly one of many future ones before October. so I’ll wait to see what comes next.
(and yes I did read the articles here/elsewhere and it did change my opinion. I’m not a Price fan; however i’m interested in whats next)
i come in peace (and for wingdings)
Thank You Habs
I have nothing against your team or fans.
I myself am a die hard Blues fan.
And i came to play my respects to the team that gave us the goalie we needed.
Cannot wait for the next Blues/Blackhawks game.
Because i just know those Blackhawk Lord Stanley Cup shirts.
Are going to piss me off and im going to kick ass.
Anyone Want To Join?
I’m not angry. I expected one of the goalies to be traded for picks or prospects; our cap situation prevents us from getting an established NHL player in return.
I am surprised, though, that this is the best return we could get. Halak is young, yes, but he’s proven himself in the NHL far more than the two players we got in return. Oshie, Perron, and Backus may have been off-limits, but what about Pietrangelo or someone of his calibre on a different team?
The problem with trading goalies is that supply is always high and demand is always low.
There’s only 60 NHL jobs available, and good-enough goalies are always something you can find.
Good enough is one thing, but how many teams are satisfied with their goaltending situation? Halak is an improvement between the pipes for a lot of teams out there.
And if supply is always high and demand is always low, why aren’t goalie salaries lower than they are?
Because several GMs don’t evaluate goaltending well when negotiating contracts. There’s no rational explanation for goaltenders like Nabokov and especially Marty Turco making the money they do. Also, elite goaltenders are worth their coin, but figuring out who is an elite goalie is extremely tricky. I go back to Turco a lot, but it boggles the mind that a guy like him is considered a “solid veteran” and one of the better goalies in the league.
Goalie salaries really should be much lower. And frankly (this coming from a Price apologist), drafting goalies in the early rounds is pretty unwise. You can always find “good-enough” goaltending on the market. Picking a goalie high only works if you come out of it with an elite goalie, and that’s pretty much impossible to predict.
Well, Price was/is supposed to become the elite goaltender. That’s one of the reasons (money and cap space notwithstanding) that he’s here and Halak is gone.
Signing a “backup” babysitter is very stupid. We can spend that money more wisely on other players, and it just sends the message to Price that he is not ready and not trusted.
It is time for Price to be given the chance to fully take command. To grow up and earn the confidence of his teammates. If this does not seem to be happening over teh course of the season, then Gauthier should act. Otherwise, no.
We’re gonna need a backup, and he’s going to cost around one million. He might as well be a good vet.
Agree
Stay away from the francophone backup though. No need for that drama!
by Chris Boyle on Jun 18, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Which is unfortunate, since Biron is probably the best option out there. He’s always been seen as a good teammate and postiive influence in the dressing room. In Buffalo, guys like Briere liked him enough that it influenced his decision to go to Philly.
He has a lot of confidence in his abilities (and that in turn priced him out of Philly) but he’s rarely complained and probably would love a situation like what Montreal has… but it’d probably be better if that same goaltending situation existed in 29 other cities in the league for Biron.
Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.
For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.
Plus he grew up a Nordiques fan.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Leighton/Niemmi etc. pretty much proved that you don’t need elite goaltending to be competitive. Detroit has won two Cups with Osgood starting.
The rhyme and reason to signing Turco/Nabokov to huge deals is based on stats. Unfortunately goaltending stats are severely flawed. In baseball pitchers are compensated for bad defense through ERA, in hockey if your defense allows 8 two on 1s and 3 breakaways per game it goes unaccounted for.
Turco is a stud with Dave Tippet. Tippet leaves for Phoenix and Bryzgalov all of a sudden becomes and MVP contender. Instead of connecting the dots of Tippet, everybody says, "WOW, Bryzgalov had a great year.
Cam Ward and Miller were great in 2007 and 2008 but because their team sucked everybody ignored them. Then in 2009 and 2010 everybody thought they arrived out of nowhere.
People are easily influenced and cannot tell you the difference between a butterfly slide, butterfly push, a VH, t-push etc. Leighton has 3 shutouts and the CBC tells us it is because Jeff Reece has been working with him on his lateral movement. So people eat up the easy answer instead of looking at shot difficulty.
Taking a goaltender early is risky because they take 5 years to develop and people are impatient. Those same impatient people look at flawed stats to make their judgement and cannot decipher through their naked eye the difference between the two.
The Result. Team Price vs. Team Halak.
by Chris Boyle on Jun 18, 2010 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Look at the Rangers… they drafted Lundqvist in the 7th round (205th overall) and came up with an elite workhorse goaltender.
Then look at the Islanders. Dumped Luongo and drafted DiPietro first overall… guy was supposed to be the real deal, and spends more time on LTIR than Gaborik’s groin :P
The draft is a crapshoot. Sometimes you roll lucky 7, more times than not you roll snake-eyes.
Turco is overrated and aging. His butterfly is so bad, it should be called the cocoon. He flops around worse than Brodeur out there. Nobody’s gonna pay what he’ll be asking for on the FA market.
Elliotte Friedman
Here is the thing that annoys me with Friedman.
It will cost the Canadiens $5-7M to sign Price/Eller and a backup? Is he insane?
Do some research big guy. For months the TV talking heads have been assuming Price is going to get an increase from $2.2M and this would force a deal. Not ONE has bothered to look into the bonus structure and what Price’s actual salary was.
Go right another puff piece about the determination of Michael Leighton Elliotte.
The exception to the rule might be Gauthier. If he does a long term deal with Price, it’s going to cost more. If he sticks by Gainey’s short term policy with RFA’s, then it should be a low deal.
Gauthier is a different GM, he might be willing to take a risk on a long term deal. I don’t see the benefit in that right now, but I suppose if he’s at $3.5m cap hit for 6 years it could be beneficial in the future.
Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.
For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.
I don’t see Price’s agent going for that. I think we are looking at a qualifying offer or some form of 3 years deal taking Price to his last, arb eligible RFA season. A 2 million cap hit on a 3 years deal isn’t that far out.
And Gauthier was talking about the value of having young players (really anybody, I suppose) outplay their cap hit, so I don’t think it’s in the cards. It is a possibility, I suppose, but an unlikely one.
$2m for Price on 3 years, $1.2m for Eller for 2 years, so $3.2m plus money for a backup. They could go as high as $2m on a short term deal for a backup, IMO, but likely $1.5m. $5m should probably be near the high end of the range, not the low end that Friedman has.
Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.
For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.
And Gauthier was talking about the value of having young players (really anybody, I suppose) outplay their cap hit, so I donât think itâs in the cards.
Hey, check it out, it’s like the GM understands how to run a salary cap team or something.
(Sorry, I’m not still bitter about the Oilers finishing 30th despite spending to the cap most of the year. Honest.)
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robert,
I hope you’re right, and I hope I’m wrong, but I have a bad feeling; and it’s based on the track records not so much the goalies in question but the GMs. Stan Bowman has done nothing but good things since joining the Hawks. Plus he has someone named Scotty Bowman as his senior advisor. These are not stupid people.
Not saying that Pierre Gauthier is a stupid guy either. He too has a good track record. But not the track record of Bowman A and Bowman B.
We’ll see.
And I do know one thing for sure: The kid Price has got to grow up—or else. Ken Dryden in the cerebral parts he is not.
Scotty that is.
+ You do realize that all of the players in Chicago were signed/acquired by Dale Tallon right?
Not Kim Johnsson. Sure, he died before the playoffs (according to the Second City Hockey folks), but Stan did make some impact on the makeup of the team. :)
Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.
For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.
I did not know that Bowman said that. Interesting, thanks, Chris.
And, yes, I did know that Tallon was GM at the time. The younger Bowman was assistant GM.
Let’s just leave it that the hockey blood line is pretty damn good among Bowmans. We’ll see. And I do, sincerely, hope Robert’s right. And I hope I’m wrong.
Very interesting and good article, Robert. One thing I canÂŽt understand though: Would it not have been possible to wait one more year? Was it really necessary to part with either one of them now? I mean Gauthier could have saved a lot of money by trading or buying out Hamrlik for example…
They could have waited a year and it would have cost them Hamrlik.
It has been implied that Halak wanted out, although I have seen ZERO proof of this. The safe play was to keep both until the deadline.
Halak’s stock was as high as it is likely to ever get. Price’s along the bottom. They cashed in the Halak stock with the hope that their other investment can grow to the same heights.
by Chris Boyle on Jun 18, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Halakâs stock was as high as it is likely to ever get.
Maybe, maybe not. Yet we only got two prospects…
Unless you are expecting a Vezina in 2010, his stock was not likely to raise next season.
If he has a solid season next year with a .917 SV% and a first round loss, is he worth more?
Delaying the decision was only good for probably 1 year, so he would need to have a huge year next season.
by Chris Boyle on Jun 18, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
…which is shockingly good considering the oversaturation of the goalie market. I’m thrilled, and not just because I was already getting my Hitmen jersey lettered with Schultz’s name, number, and “C” later this summer.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
They were saying on the Globe & Mail podcast that he wanted out weeks ago, and I know I’d read that somewhere else previously, though damned if I can recall where.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Question going forward
If you look at the team, put Price on the back end for most of the games and do not add any free agents or trades, so the roster is similar to the playoff roster, are we a better team going forward? Even assuming that Price plays significantly better than his last 50 starts, are we better?
I pose this question because that may be the situation. I am not thrilled with this quite frankly and that is my frustration with the move. Last season, we made improvements as the team came together in the post season, but the league is always fluid with teams catching up in the offseason. We needed some freedom to buy or trade for an offensive piece and I don’t know if that is going to happen. In spite of the run, we were an 8th seed and needed to improve. The 2 prospects are fine, and hopefully will develop into NHLers, but what about 2010-2011?
Even if Price is tendered and accepts at a bargain, with the 3.5 mil we were planning on Halak minus a mil for a new backup, that opens up 2.5 mil extra for the numerous players we need to sign. Now Plek looks like more of a possibility, as well as Moore, Max, Tom. Maybe a depth signing, maybe we call up from the minors some 3rd/4th line bodies and save some cap room for the trade deadline but I don’t see any room for a big forward that can score…which is what I and many other people feel would have helped this post season. Is that good enough?
I think this trade is PG acknowledging that we aren’t going to win the Cup next season. We barely had enough cap room to bring back last year’s team, so adding ‘the missing piece’ was out of the question. Getting two development players in the trade and talking about how Price is the goalie of ‘the future’ is a pretty good indication of when Gauthier thinks we’ll be able to win.
But that sucks…. after having an amazing playoff run only to take 2..or 3 steps backward (losing a starting goalie, needing a backup – think we should take Desjardins and let Hamilton figure out the rest – old guys teaching not the root to Price’s vices, maybe not signing Plek and needing a second line winger to go with Camm).
Financial matters aside, there are NOW huge holes where once a good core stood.
by Cruisin4aBruisin on Jun 18, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Perhaps it’s unwise to talk about holes before PG is done with the offseason.
After all, he could just as easily re-sign Pleks, sign some good bottom-six forwards with the money saved with Halak, and find a quality backup, and your core would be equal except you now have Subban in it = better team.
Or even remove Hamrlik and use the space for an extra quality forward, like Frolov.
I tought they’d package Hamrlik with a goalie, actually. So I’m not sure he still is moveable.
Eller looks better every time you look at him. I think he’s a pretty nice insurance policy for the habs if Pleks doesn’t come back. Everybody gushes about his 5v5 abilities, by what I found he did pretty good in the AHL last year…
If he jumps in the big next year, it’ll be as a soft-minutes 3rd line center. We already have Gomez soaking up a part of the tough assignments so if Pleks goes away, we need another heavy lifter. Moore can do some part of that job (but won’t put up Plek’s numbers), hell we could give a shot at bringing Koivu back!
The point is, Eller gives them some space to pivot if things go awry with Pleks.
Oh, and by the way
Hamrlik-Spacek
Markov-Gorges
Gill-Subban
With O’Byrne as #7…
That wouldn’t be too shabby a defense, no?
+1
THIS is the most important aspect in the development and protection of Carey Price.
A strong defense is more important than a dominant goaltender. When you get both, you get Patrick Roy. Keeping Halak would have forced the Habs to start 2011 with:
O’Byrne-Spacek
Carle-Gorges
Gill-Subban
Let me know how Halak would have fared with that in front of him.
You are essentially placing your focus on Halak being responsible for the Canadiens playoff run alone. What would have happened if the Bruins had traded Thomas last season? It would have been viewed as a disaster. The reason behind the Bruins resurgence, the Vezina trophy winner. He is IRREPLACEABLE!
Well the Bruins got sucked into the stats, kept Thomas when there was a cheaper replacement at the AHL level and got to Game 7 of the 2nd round like they did the season before. How integral was that Vezina trophy winner to the teams success?
How can anybody who just watched Osgood, Turco, Fleury, Biron, Huet, Ward, Leighton, Halak, Niemi and Nabokov start in the Conference Finals over the last 3 seasons believe that goaltending is essential to success?
This deifying of goaltenders needs to stop. The Red Wings are contenders EVERY season and outside of Hasek for a couple of years have used retreads. Price is not a stiff and when the Canadiens surround him with talent it is more prudent to have a solid team than pray your goalie gets hot for a couple of rounds. People still think that Roy won 2 cups by himself.
by Chris Boyle on Jun 18, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec’d. Nailed it.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Great read
I really enjoyed reading this. It’s probably the best thing I read on the trade today. And considering the amount of stuff that was written about it, you deserve credit! :P
I especially liked Chris’ take on this. It’s way too soon to know the long term consequences of this. It might be a mistake in the end, but a choice had to be made, and Gauthier had the guts to go with the unpopular route. I hope he was right.
http://softeuropean.wordpress.com
Excellent analysis
If they traded Price they would be selling low. It’s impressive that they didn’t get sucked into the small sample size and high leverage of the playoffs and assume that Halak could replicate his performance on a long term basis.
You cannot realistically call Kelly Hrudey a flash in the pan goalie. His “flash” lasted for about ten years from the mid 80’s to the mid 90’s.
I was going to say something about that, but I couldn’t find Tyler Dellow’s post on Hrudey before, so I didn’t bother.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Great article robert ... as complete as it can ever be at this stage ... bravo !
It’s all about growing as a team and as a franchise in the post lock-out era and as robert l’ s supremally intelligent article about the trade pointed out GM Gauthier need being credited for his integrity and guts by doing the wright thing for the Club intead of doing the easy thing for himself.
What if....
There was a time back in the mid to late 80s where the Devils became the goalie development team. Names like Friessen, Terreri, Dunham, McLean and the supposed answer Sean Burke were developed by NJ. Eventually it stopped when they realized Brodeur was the answer, But they shipped those goalies out for other assets because other than drafting Muller and Shanahan (each a #2 overall), they did not have much luck developing forwards.
My point is, we made Huet and all star and now he’s an after thought. At one point Jose was the next thing and then we thanked Gainey for dumping his salary. If we are good at developing goalies, possibly we are not done moving them. We all love Halak, he’s a battler and he was traded while his value was high. Could be that we make Desjardins look real attractive in a year or two and he or Price goes. It just seems that we are good with goalies, so why shouldn’t we take advantage of it to shore up an area we are not up to speed with? Like Centers!
Chris Boyle comment....
Man, the last true successes the Canadiens have achieved have been based upon Frenchies exploits (if we discard Jaro)… Since the direction of that team thinks how they think, nothing great happened. Despite what you may think, you need french blood in that franchise to ignite its successes. I’m not saying that english or other nationalities folks had nothing to do with the Habs glorious history, but everytime Habs succeeded, it has been a mix of other cultures and Frenchies commitment. Maybe it is time for the NHL to revive the QuĂ©bec Nordiques? Cause the Habs have sold their soul obviously! Sell multi-cultural promotional products now, Canadiens administrators! The cup is still far away for a long time!
by Sylvain Rogers on Jun 19, 2010 12:45 AM EDT reply actions

Doug Harvey who? Terry Harper what? Gump Worsley huh? Ken Dryden…oh, never mind, you get the point.
Detroit Red Wings. Look them up. The results may shock you.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
News flash…. there are now 30 teams in the league, and sponsorship junior clubs and C-Forms no longer exist! The Canadiens can only draft the Quebec players that are available, and there are not enough to go around. It would be nice, but…..you can’t live in the past.
There were, no kidding, twelve different things I wanted to say — this among them — but every post I wrote degenerated into a string of profanity and insults. So I let the boys in the red PJs do the talking for me.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
St.Louis native here
And I’m worried about this deal from our end. How many times have we seen a younger goaltender find sudden success, only to completely fall off the map after getting a huge raise?
Don’t get me wrong, I’m stoked to have Halak here, and he’s probably the best goaltender we’ve had in some time, but we gave up our #2 prospect in our system to get him. Eller has some serious upside, and he easily deserved more than the seven games he got with the big club last season.
The Habs got a solid player in Eller, and the Shultz could easily develop in a solid power forward, so I don’t think you guys got out too bad, but time will tell, I guess.
I wouldn’t worry about Halak. He may never be a .924 goalie again, but he has a very solid body of work.
+1
He is not a stiff, he has strong stats throughout his career and I like him, but the media has overrated him and created a name in which he was responsible for all the Habs success.
I have no doubt he will do really well in St. Louis.
I’m not even sure he is that overrated. He excelled every step of the way. Above and beyond the physical tools, Halak has shown time and time again he is a tough, relentless little bugger who will pick himself up after a failure, learn from it and come back with a vengeance.
I mean, his hand was shaking after that goal, Ovechkin was right. But what happenned next?
The whole Saint-Louis fanbase will be adoringly squealing “Jarrrrroooo!!!” before long and for a little while, he’s just entering his prime. The kid is nothing but quality.
But we don’t have 4+ millions to blow on a single goalie, so there goes. That being said, despite the antics, theatrics, frowning, swooning and media relations coup of “I’m reformed now”, amidst all the drama he drags around with him, Price ain’t very far Jaro. Which means we can pretty much bank on the goalies outplaying their contracts again next year.
Overrated doesn’t mean he is not a good goaltender. Overrated in the sense that the media and fans believe that he did it all by himself.
Almost every mainstream media article I’ve read on the Halak trade invariably contains the phrases “carried the team to” or “singlehandedly brought his team to”.
Now, I do not feel this way, but you will never ever see an article on a traded goalie suggest that “Halak, who was fortified and made to look better than he is” was traded…
It’s a team game.
Perceptions are sometimes retarded, in the slow to come around sense. Cammalleri had a great playoff, but yet everyone thinks his centerman didn’t.
I know. Cammalleri had a huge playoff. If you removed his contribution the Habs are gone in the first round, yet nobody paints the scenario that he put the Habs on his shoulders and took them to the Conference Finals.
Is it a coincidence that when Cammalleri stopped scoring that the Habs stopped winning? They won 1 game in the conference final and guess who scored the opening goal.
It is the simple narrative to make the goaltender the star and traditional media is either dumb or absolutely lazy. It is why we get the same rehash BS every single year.
by Chris Boyle on Jun 20, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
The whole time, I’ve put the run down to three guys: Cammi, Jaro, and Gionta. C&G scored seemingly 3/4 of the Habs’ goals (probably closer to half) and Jaro was lights-out for most of the first two rounds. Any one of those three, and especially the first two, go down and we’re toast long ago.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Considering how massively outplayed the Habs were and how porous their defense was, there’s some truth to the notion that Halak did it all. At least on the defensive side of the puck.
There’s a lot of credit being given to a “tight defensive game” that simply wasn’t there… or perhaps more accurately, spent so much time ‘defending tightly’ that Halak ended up facing ungodly numbers of high-quality chances despite their heroics.
The contribution of the Habs’ defense to the playoff cause has been, IMHO, overrated. Yeah, they blocked a ton of shots, but they gave up so many and so many chances anyway that it was only stemming some of the bleeding.
I liked Scott Cullen’s quote from his Off-Season gameplan for the Habs: “they need to establish a more controlling offensive game if they are indeed going to hold championship aspirations.”
The Canadiens rarely limited the shot total, they just did a helluva damn good job keeping them at angles. The Habs playoff loses all have the same breakdowns in common, and that is shots from the middle of the ice, with a better view at the net. I broke down goal by goal, the Washington and Pittsburgh series’, and it was a common trend. There was no overrating of the Habs defensive play to people who understand what they see. The unit of five play was also excellent for two rounds. Had Montreal kept up some of the poised and patient approach against the Flyers, the series would have been closer.
“The Canadiens rarely limited the shot total, they just did a helluva damn good job keeping them at angles.”
Unfortunately, this is one of those myths that often happen after certain playoff series that give unexpected results. It just didn’t happen that way.
A quick look at some shot charts quickly dispels the notion that the Habs limited outside shots… here are some from ESPN, just click on “Close” to see it:
Game 6 vs. Washington:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/gamecast?gameId=300426010
Game 2 vs. Pittsburgh:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/gamecast?gameId=300502016
Keeping in mind that those were games the Habs won. Plenty of shots right from the middle of the ice in those. You can navigate to the other games from there, these are some pretty telling games but the Habs allowed plenty of dangerous shots from the dangerous area between the faceoff dots in pretty much every game they won.
Now maybe the proportion of dangerous shots vs. total shots was somewhat low (though I didn’t think so) but with the bombardment the Habs faced, that still meant a large number of quality scoring chances right from the slots for the Habs’ opponents — far more than what the Habs got.
Well, I can say that I saw what happened with my own eyes, and what happened was that the Habs allowed tons of shots from the slot. But I have references confirming what I saw, none for your theory.
Our eyes deceive us. We look at games with no small amount of confirmation bias, especially if we’re fans, which is why it’s important, if you’re analyzing and not just enjoying the games, to look back on them with the strength of other observations, which is what shot charts are. With the media trying to find an explanation for why the Habs were getting torched and winning, the keep-shots-on-the-outside theory was blasted at us consistently (not unlike the Flyers-beat-Habs-with-size myth of 2007-2008) even though it had only a tenuous basis in fact.
Not helping in this case was that the Habs were actually defending relatively well, but doing so much defending that in the end the number of dangerous shots against was still very high — and dwarfed the number of dangerous shots for.
I’m sorry, Robert, but the shot charts really hint at the fact that what you “saw what happened with your eyes” did not actually happen quite that way. So do Olivier’s eyes actually — he’s been re-viewing games and counting “scoring chances”, namely shots and missed shots from between the faceoff dots, for all the Habs games this year, and his counts are not flattering to the Habs in the playoffs.
Have you had a look at Gabe’s posts on the Habs’ playoffs at behindthenethockey.com, on SBN too? It does a pretty good job breaking down all the stories around the Habs’ run.
Stats are as intelligent as the individual manipulating them for their narrative.
I think it is half and half. You cannot look at stats alone to judge what happened in a game and you cannot trust your eyes alone.
It is a mixture of both that will give you the true outcome of the game. I watched Game 6 and the Habs came out and established a 2 goal lead and controlled the play, yet the shots came up at the end of the period as 18-10 for the Capitals.
Now look at the shots from the 1st period alone (a period in which the Captials did not have a good scoring chance).
12 shots from outside 25 feet. The six shots that were registered from within 25 feet were taken by Brooks Laich and Eric Belanger. So the stats will tell you the Capitals DOMINATED that period, when anybody who watched it would disagree.
I charted all of the shots Halak faced through 3 rounds and as the shots from the perimeter decreased, so did his save percentage. Feel free to do the research as well.
The Caps threw every puck at the net from every angle and the Habs allowed them to do it. Is Gabriel Desjardins going to tell us this is a poor strategy? Of course he is, because it is, unfortunately it was the only way they were going to win. If they played the Capitals 100 times trying this they would probably lose 70% of the games with or without Halak.
The Pens didn’t do this as much and with the extra perimeter shots removed his SV% dropped from .939 to .922.
As he hit the Conference Finals the Flyers decided to remove the Canadiens ability to counterpunch by clogging the neutral zone, they removed the mindset of throw everything at the goal and the shots from within 10 feet doubled and the shots from 50+ feet were cut in half. Guess what.
Halak’s SV% dropped to .900.
There is no doubt the Habs were outplayed. There is no doubt the Habs gave up more scoring chances than their opposition, but Halak no more carried them then Cammalleri did.
Remove Cammallieri’s goal in Game 1 – Loss
Remove Cammalleri’s goal in Game 5 – OT
Remove Cammalleri’s 2 goals in Game 6 – OT
In a series in which the Habs won three games by 1 goal what would Halak’s legend be without those goals?
Halak had moments of brilliance in the playoffs, but he also had moments where he was exposed badly. Game 2 against the Capitals, Game 1 against the Pens, Game 1 against Philly.
Where was the brilliance of Halak against the Flyers? If we are to believe that shot totals are indicative of the flow of play, can we declare that Halak cost the Canadiens in the Conference Finals and ultimately it was his fault that they lost?
The Canadiens outshot the Flyers in 4 of the 5 games. Why is it that they only won 1? Or are we going to get into playing to the score, something that has not been mentioned in regards to the first or second round?
I know what the stats say, I also know what I observed as a 30+ year hockey fan. Halak did not do it all and I don’t believe there is a notion of truth to it.
by Chris Boyle on Jun 21, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m still trying to figure out how “letting Pittsburgh and Washington bombard our net” is not only a valid defensive strategy but the only one that offers any hope of winning. Maybe it’s just me, but I would have tried to slow the game down, particularly in the neutral zone, rather than let two very dangerous teams the free run of my defensive zone. In my book, a “defensive system” is one that limits the opponents’ offense, not one that relies on superhuman goaltending.
Now, there’s no denying that you cannot win championships with defense alone (cute adage notwithstanding). So obviously without the offense from Cammalleri and his ilk, the Habs wouldn’t have won. It is therefore incorrect to state that Halak “singlehandedly” won two playoff series.
However, on the defensive side, Halak was the key guy. Could he have done it alone, with zero defense at all? Again, of course not. But the Habs’ defense and especially their “team game” is getting entirely too much credit when in reality they were getting pretty badly smoked. It was not an extraordinary defensive effort that protected Halak and allowed him to look good; it was the opposite, in that Halak made the defense look better than it really was.
Of course, that wasn’t sustainable, and it didn’t last. Halak didn’t “cost” the series against the Flyers; he merely came back down to Earth and though he was still excellent (well, not in Game 1, clearly), the Habs’ poor defensive system really showed its holes against Philly, whereas offensively Montreal proved unable to solve Philly’s left wing lock. A bit of an unfortunate result because Montreal had the better of the play with the score tied, but Montreal’s coaching staff had absolutely no answer for the Flyers’ defensive strategy (one of the many reasons I’m not very high on Montreal’s coaching.)
Shot totals can be indicative of the flow of play, but not nearly as scoring chances are. Montreal managed two different periods during the Flyers series in which they recorded ZERO scoring chances. Despite outshooting the Flyers, the Habs actually WERE pushed to the outside by Philadelphia, something that the Habs actually couldn’t do. What happened was that the Habs would typically dominate early and fail to score; then the Flyers would take a lead and lock down the game in a way the Habs never could. As a particularly illustrative example, look at Game 2, especially the second and third periods:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/gamecast?gameId=300518015
The Flyers played Montreal like Montreal played Washington — hope to score an early goal then hope to keep the opponent in check — except they were much better at the keeping opponent in check part. The Flyers slowed the game down, controlled the neutral zone, and played the Habs tight defensively; the Habs basically let the Caps waltz in and bomb away and gave up tons of chances that, but for Halak’s momentary brilliance, should have resulted in blown leads.
I think it’d sheer folly for management to base hockey decisions based on the Habs’ playoff perfomances. They were not encouraging at all.
There is a reason I never really believed the Habs could win the Cup and that was the style they were playing, but Halak’s stats were padded by ineffective outside shots that pushed the shot totals to absurd levels. The way the media researches the game lead to Halak being pushed to a level he has not earned.
I am in no way saying that Halak was not great, but through the first 4 games the Canadiens were outshot by an average of 6 shots per game and gave up 19 goals. They were not packing players down low and they were being punished on odd man rushes. Robert and I looked at every single goal throughout the series in great detail for the defensive and offensive zone breakdowns.
Through 4 games Halak’s SV% was .887.
All of a sudden the Capitals shot totals go from +6 per game to +23 per game, yet their odd-man chances, slot opportunities and transition goals disappeared. A team that was scoring at will was now shooting from everywhere and getting nothing.
There was a definite philosophical shift from the Canadiens at this point and although risky, was a better proposition then what they had already attempted through 4 games. If they continued their play from Game 1 through 4 they were not going to win.
Now all of a sudden the Caps are shooting from everywhere and Halak becomes the breakout star and gets the bulk of the credit. If the Canadiens had continued to give up odd man rushes they would have been gone in 5 games.
Halak is not a miracle worker. I don’t believe that he just had bad games in Game 2 and 3 and Game 1 against the Pens? He was hung out to dry in those games.
I saw Theo do this same thing and got suckered into thinking I had just witnessed the performance of a lifetime. Then one season later I watched Giguere do the same thing in Anaheim, now here we are in 2010 and Halak has done it again. If it was such a legendary performance, why have I seen it 3 times in the last 8 years?
It may have been a poor strategy that ultimately lead to their demise, but Halak’s contribution has been over stated with hyperbole and pushed to god like status.
He was great, but so were Gill, Gorges, Gionta and Cammalleri and if any of them were removed from the formula they likely would not have beaten the Capitals.
by Chris Boyle on Jun 21, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
My thinking is that Halak was largely hung out to dry, he just managed to save some games and not others. Goaltenders of all skill levels do get hot for short stretches, that variance is what makes it hard to evaluate their true talent level.
(I’m not trying to argue against the Halak trade here, don’t get me wrong; I’m just trying to dispel the notion of the Habs’ defensive game being successful.)
The Habs did shift philosophy in games 5-6-7. They gave up any pretense of offense, any pretense of neutral zone play, and simply packed the slot with bodies and let the Caps fire at will. By all rights, this should not have worked. They were killing their own offense for dubious defensive gain. In terms of preventing scoring chances, it was largely a wash compared to the previous games — perhaps they were able to keep a lower proportion of Washington’s shots in the “dangerous” category, but they allowed so many shots that the overall total was the same or higher.
To illustrate what I mean (and here I’m pulling numbers completely out of the air to illustrate my point, so don’t hold me to them…) it’s like having 30% of 25 shots be dangerous, then changing gears so that you have 20% dangerous shots out of 40. Your defense is “tighter”, perhaps, but in the end it’s not buying you much except cutting down on your offensive time.
In real terms, Olivier had the Caps averaging 23 chances in games 2-4, and 28 chances a game 5-7. Some of that is affected by the Habs taking first period leads in all three of the latter games, which would tend to increase the Caps’ chances numbers. But in terms of limiting shot attempts from dangerous areas (which is what scoring chances are defined as in this context) that doesn’t seem very successful. The proportion of dangerous shots is smaller; the total is pretty much a wash; and the Habs’ scoring chances for took a hit for it.
As an aside, what Montreal did in games 5-7 is what they have done all year and what they absolutely must not continue doing if they wish to be a successful team rather than one that kind of hangs around. I have railed against Martin all year about trying to defend better at the cost of defending more; the net effect is less chances for, and either the same or more chances against. It’s pure pre-lockout hockey and it’s not sustainable in the long run. IMHO, this is why the Habs had poor results all year.
If the Habs play next season like they played in the playoffs, they won’t be a playoff team. They might even be a lottery team.
I agree 100%
that it was a shitty strategy to play and I also agree that Halak got hot, but I don’t think that the scoring chances were of the same degree over the last 3 games.
They may have had more, but they didn’t have many off the rush and not many players were unimpeded through the crease area.
When giving up all possibility of offense they relied on Cammalleri/Gionta etc burying their chances, and I made plenty of references and asked the question “what happens to the Habs when Cammalleri, Plekanec and Gionta’s shooting percentages regress to the norm?”
As strong as Halak was in those games, it was never a string of OMG I can’t believe he just stopped that one saves. It was a constant barrage and the accumulation of offensive zone time is what made a huge impact.
I am not suggesting that Michael Leighton could have pulled off what he did, but I think that his legend is built on the back of him getting hot, the offense scoring timely goals and some fortunate breaks. I think any strong goaltender who got in the zone could have accomplished what he did.
When left exposed to breakaways, one-timers from the slot and tons of crease traffic he had no answers. He became ordinary.
Halak was a pillar, but one pillar does not hold up a house and that is the narrative being written and eaten up by the fanbase.
The only positive thing about Price is that he’s cheap and the Habs will have a nice draft pick after next season because they will drop all the way to 30th place! This is what a year of mismanaging a cap does to a team. To the 17 goalies on the open market come July the habs will offer the best job position. After all you start as a backup in October but I guarantee that by January you will get a chance to steal the number one job! I wonder if Gauthier is going to pick somebody so inept that it will never be a threat to the never ending Price storyline!
by Rambling Johnny on Jun 20, 2010 1:27 AM EDT reply actions
After reading your post I understand why your handle starts with rambling.
by Chris Boyle on Jun 20, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions

by 




















