A Second Philly Whitewash - Habs and Habs Fans Searching For Answers
by Robert L on May 19, 2010 8:22 AM EDT
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The Canadiens backs might not yet be up against the proverbial wall, but their butts are about to kiss gyprock.
A 3-0 loss and a second consecutive shutout on Flyer turf sends the Habs back to the Bell for the first time in this post season down 0-2. Having been outscored 9-0 in two games leaves little reason for optimism.
They are in dire straights, the sultans of squat, and how they deal with this, will define their season.
No one will argue that the Canadiens played much better in Game Two. By all accounts they held the play for longer stretches, won the majority of faceoffs, committed less turnovers than the Flyers and outchanced them over the course of the game.
Could it be reasoned that the Habs played twice as good as they did in Game One because they doubled their scoring chances close in, while allowing half as many goals?
That outlook might constitute living in fantasy land. These games have not been close at the final siren. It's no as though Montreal are losing by the hair on Kate Smith's chin.
This team needs to score a goal for heaven sakes. It doesn't matter if it goes in seven ricochets off of an elbow pad, they have to get one in, ugly or not. The perfect play, after two shutouts, no longer exists.
Theories abound, as to why the Habs find themselves in the predicament they are in.
Not often do I watch games in the company of friends who may distract my concentration on the television screen, but for reasons I will not explain, I had no choice last night. So I accepted an invite to a nearby suds fountain and settled in expecting a different experience.
Three friends, three different theories, not counting my own.
The first, Jeff - a Habs die hard, blamed goaltending, but not until the third Flyer goal, mind you.
My reaction to that was immediate.
"Yeah, right! Blame the goalie when it's three zip. That's getting to the heart of the issue, isn't it. Hockey's a team game, and where were his mates on the others?"
The answer, was another beer.
The second theory, was less pointed. It came from a non Habs fan, not a hater of Montreal but a guy who knows his hockey from having coached it. I don't know for how long, but Guy made sense while outdrinking us all.
His view was that the Canadiens were not engaged in playing in the trenches. He noted several times, as it happened, when the Habs entered the Flyer zone, and immediately became fancy, looking for the perfect play. He felt that the Canadiens would bet be served by dumping it in, and hitting the Flyer's zone with more speed.
I agreed somewhat, especially on the fancy schmancy. The Flyers are just too positional and dedicated for any sort of trickery to work.
The third theory, from a friend named Paul who I have known since we were eight years old playing the game on outdoor rinks together, pissed me off the most.
Paul thinks all out warfare should be deployed against Philadelphia, precisely meaning that Montreal's tougher chins should bait Philly at every turn to get them off their game.
I pointed out that the Canadiens were already being killed when the Flyers had a man advantage, and that instigating more of the same was worthy of digging themselves an early grave.
That's when Paul and I got into the old size matters versus size does not matter argument.
Now I could not possibly recount all the details of our conversation / argument, but suffice to say that Paul and I are the same age, and have seen the Habs heroics of Henri, Cournoyer, and Naslund over the years.
I will not even get into the theory that so called small players cannot play big games. I agree that smaller players are capable of great games and great things.
But sometimes, it is not simply about one individual or another. The game of hockey, is about teams, one against the other.
The conversation / argument went on at length, and I had three "friends" decidedly against me in opinion.
I got called "smarty pants" and was asked why I thought the Flyers were winning the series.
My answer was a question.
"Have you paid any attention to how good Philadelphia are playing?"
The Flyers aren't giving the Habs much in terms of looks at their net. They are essentially doing to Montreal what the Canadiens did to Washington and Pittsburgh, which is giving them nothing but perimeter to play with.
So far, the Flyers have been almost faultless, and when they've boobed, Michael Leighton's big frame has saved the day.
But Paul, size does matter, and so does endurance. You own a Quickie convenience store, but your ex-wife sells life insurance.
As promised Paul, here's how the two teams measure up, height and weight wise.
What follows is a bunch of comparatives I did not put a whole lot of thought into. I just dropped fact to see where they'd lie.
Here are the 12 Canadiens and Flyers forwards, ranked by order of height from shortest to tallest, with height and weight differentials noted.
MON Brian Gionta 5'7'' 173 / PHI Daniel Briere 5'10'' 179 - +3'' +6 lbs
MON Mike Cammalleri 5'9'' 182 / PHI Claude Giroux 5'11'' 172 - +2'' -10 lbs
MON Glen Metropolit 5'10''/ PHI Mike Richards 5'11'' 195 - +1'' - 1lb
MON Tom Pyatt 5'11'' 187 / PHI Arron Asham 5'11'' 205 - 0'' +18lbs
MON Tomas Plekanec 5'11'' 198 / PHI Darroll Powe 5'11'' 212 - 0'' + 14 lbs
MON Scott Gomez 5'11'' 202 / PHI Simon Gagne 6'0'' 195 - +1'' - 7 lbs
MON Dominic Moore 6'0'' 196 / PHI Daniel Carcillo 6'0'' 205 - 0" + 9 lbs
MON Sergei Kostitsyn 6'0'' 210 / PHI Andreas Nodl 6'1'' 196 - +1" - 14 lbs
MON Andrei Kostitsyn 6'0'' 215 / PHI Ville Leino 6'1'' 210 - +1" - 5 lbs
MON Mathieu Darche 6'1'' 215 / PHI Scott Hartnell 6'2'' 210 - +1" - 5 lbs
MON Travis Moen 6'2'' 215 / PHI James van Riemsdyk 6'3'' 200 - +1" - 15 lbs
MON Maxim Lapierre 6'2'' 207 / PHI Blair Betts 6'3'' 210 - +1" +3 lbs
TOTAL: +12" - 7 lbs
Flyers 12 starting forwards are on averge one inch taller than their Canadiens counterparts, but as a group are seven pounds lighter.
MON Marc-Andre Bergeron 5'9'' 198 / PHI Kimmo Timonen 5'10'' 194 - +1" -4 lbs
MON Jaroslav Spacek 6'0'' 210 / PHI Matt Carle 6'0'' 205 - 0" -5lbs
MON P.K. Subban 6'0'' 206 / PHI Ryan Parent 6'3'' 198 - +3" - 8 lbs
MON Josh Gorges 6'1'' 200 / PHI Lukas Krajicek 6'3'' 205 - +2" +5 lbs
MON Roman Hamrlik 6'2'' 207 / PHI Braydon Coburn 6'5'' 220 - +3" + 13 lbs
MON Hal Gill 6'7'' 241 / PHI Chris Pronger 6'6'' 220 - -1" - 21 lbs
Flyers 6 starting defensemen are on average in excess of one inch taller than their Canadiens counterparts, but as a group are twenty pounds lighter. Remove the Pronger vs Gill comparison, and things even out.
Where things get interesting, is in comparables involving top four defensemen versus top four forwards. Generally, these are the in game matchups were contests are won and lost - keep in mind that I have not - and I cannot emaphasize this enough - gone through a detailed accounting of who played against whom, but use your common sense here.
Habs top 4 forwards versus Flyers top 4 forwards
Gionta / Cammalleri / Plekanec / Gomez
average height 5' 9 1/2"
average weight 189 lbs
Briere / Richards / Gagne / Hartnell
average height 5'11 3/4"
average weight 195 lbs
On average, Flyers forwards are two and a half inches taller and six pounds heavier.
Habs top 4 defensemen versus Flyers top 4 defensemen
Bergeron / Gorges / Subban / Hamrlik
average height 6' 0''
average weight 203 lbs
Timmonen / Carle / Pronger / Coburn
average height 6' 2 1/4"
average weight 210 lbs
On average, Flyers defensemen are two and a quarter inches taller and seven pounds heavier.
Note: Top 4 defensemen are ranked by minutes played during Game Two
Of course, defensemen do not play against defensemen, and forwards do not neccessarily play against forwards.
A more telling analysis would pit the Canadiens forwards versus the Flyers defense, and vice versa.
Habs top 4 forwards versus Flyers top 4 defensemen
Gionta / Cammalleri / Plekanec / Gomez
average height 5' 9 1/2"
average weight 189 lbs
Timmonen / Carle / Pronger / Coburn
average height 6' 2 1/4"
average weight 210 lbs
On average, Flyers defensemen are four and a three quarter inches taller and twenty-one pounds heavier than Canadiens forwards.
That is significant.
Flyers top 4 forwards versus Canadiens top 4 defensemen
Briere / Richards / Gagne / Hartnell
average height 5'11 3/4"
average weight 195 lbs
Bergeron / Gorges / Subban / Hamrlik
average height 6' 0''
average weight 203 lbs
On average, Canadiens defensemen are a quarter inch taller and eight pounds heavier than Flyers forwards.
Not very significant.
I've presented some arguments and thoughts I really did not go seeking for. I was hoping to dispell a growing notion inside and be proven wrong, but I'm not sure it worked out that way.
It's your call readers.
I'm off to find some Advil liquigel caps and an icebag.
Your input folks, let's hear it!
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Wow, amazing break down Robert. Very good comparatives. I would have to agree that the offense top 4 vs defense top 4 is the most significant stat and seeing how there is such a HUGE difference is interesting.
I was also surprised to see that Gill wasn’t lumped in there. Isn’t he usually one of your top 2 d-men? I understand you went by game 2 ice time, but why isn’t he playing top pairing minutes?
"Chris Pronger sneaked in the back door...banged it home."
Flyers Television Play-by-Play Man: Jim Jackson
It is not about size, it is about commitment.
The Caps and Pens didn’t respect the Canadiens even in defeat, so they never really attempted to take anything away from them. They just assumed that if they kept doing what they were doing that eventually they would win.
The Flyers are not suffering from the same arrogance. They have decided to take away the counter attack and to not throw everything at the Canadiens goal. They are testing the theory that the Canadiens are soft and so far it is working. They have proven that if they get the lead, that they have the ability to patiently await power plays and transition opportunities to build upon their lead.
They are not padding Halak’s stats like the Pens/Caps. Instead we are getting a role reversal in which the Canadiens make Leighton (a career sieve) look like Bernie Parent.
Blaming the goalie is pointless, it is lazy and their importance is severely overrated these days. With every goaltender versed in the science of the butterfly and efficient recovery techniques a stacked committed team can get by without great goaltending. Goaltending can lose you a series, but rarely wins one by itself. If you don’t believe me, take a look at the last 2 final fours. Osgood, Fleury, Ward, Huet, Niemi, Nabokov, Leighton and Halak. Not exactly a who’s who of dominant goaltenders. The best goaltender of the bunch, Cam Ward went 0-4 with a 4.30 GAA and a .874 SV%. The worst, Osgood had a 2.01 GAA and a .926 SV%.
The Flyers are also confident that if they get behind that they can turn up the offensive pressure and play from behind. It will be important for the Habs to strike early and get the Flyers out of their passive offensive shell and see what transition opportunities arise.
Stanley Cup contenders get contributions from unexpected sources like Fernando Pisani, Paul DiPietro and Dan Cleary. The Habs have gotten to this point riding their top players and their obscene shooting percentages.
I am not ready to give up on the Habs yet, but their play resembles that of a team who is satisfied with their accomplishments.
by Chris Boyle on May 19, 2010 10:07 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
The Copper & Blue has a listing of scoring chances, and the Habs failed to register a single scoring chance in the third period facing a 2-0 game deficit and a 2-0 series one. They already checked out. The D weren’t pinching, they weren’t trying to draw penalties, they just played dump and chase and backed up.
It was incredibly frustrating to watch. For some reason, Jacques Martin benches Andrei Kostitsyn in the 3rd when down 2 and expects Travis Moen to generate more offence than he could.
And Scott Gomez better wake up. Two straight games he kills the first PP with a stupid penalty. And twice, the Habs fall behind 1-0 as a result.
You don’t get to the Conference Final very often. Make it count.
Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.
For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.
by Bruce Peter on May 19, 2010 10:55 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Nevermind Moen. Why is Pyatt spending 10 minutes with Gomez and Gionta, spread across all three periods?
If you want to “wake Gomez up”, you could do better than saddle him with an ineffective winger.
Martin’s system is awful, but at least his lineup decisions and lines used to make sense, even if he was mishandling youth and overvaluing vets. Now he doesn’t even have that.
+1
You guys said it better then i could have,
In a nutshell:we have met the enemy and it is us.
All the things that we did well or min the mistakes in regards to previous series-not this one. not currently.
case in point: we were on the power play. nuttin great. probing. the usual. gomez negates the penalty…montreal is on defense. ok…heh….no biggie. we will get it back. then the other part of the problem continues; where after the pk mission is accomplished, the defense lapses like 5-10 seconds later and its 1-0 flyers.
lavolette and his assistants have to be telling their guys to keep pressing after these moments. to do whats necessary to get that initial “first blood”. even if they draw a penalty; they prolly figure “no biggie” (gomez)…they will be back on attack mode.
thursday’s game will be interesting on account that its bell center. if leighton can weather the storm of that crowd and (fill in the blank) can score for philly, then that game might just resemble the wachovia debacle.
as of today/saturday, its up to martin and his coaches to decide if they wanna still keep to plan in regards to this machismo quoient. its really on them
i come in peace (and for wingdings)
Interesting Theory
You present an interesting theory, but I’d be curious to now how the how the previous series would break down using the same comparatives. I suspect that the Habs offense vs. the opponents defense would show less of a disparity, although personally I think the reason for the Flyers domination of the series so far is more on point with what Chris said,
“The Caps and Pens didn’t respect the Canadiens even in defeat, so they never really attempted to take anything away from them. They just assumed that if they kept doing what they were doing that eventually they would win.
The Flyers are not suffering from the same arrogance."
I think that The President’s Trophy winner and the defending Stanley Cup champions both had the attitude that until either they met in the conference finals, or if they didn’t meet, until they were playing in the Cup finals, they had no reason to be concerned. Luckily, the Flyers aren’t drinking that Kool-Aid.
by Pocono Flyers Fan on May 19, 2010 1:11 PM EDT reply actions
Robert – Thanks for taking the time to produce such a detailed study.
Size is important but you also have to consider how it’s utilized. The Flyers play hard and hit harder. You can sense the aggressive edge even before the hit arrives. They leave their feet with many of their checks and they go to the dirty parts of the ice. They are willing to pay the piper and also make sure that the other team pays an even higher price. A few of them are headhunters and one or two even have a screw loose. They also excel at creating mayhem around the other team’s net. Conversely, their opposition is hesitant to park themselves in front of the Flyer net. Hence, the intimidation works at both ends of the ice. They also appear to skate faster in comparison to the Habs which is something that I wasn’t expecting. All these factors add up to a Flyer advantage that can’t be measured by stats alone. Simply stated, we are their bitches at the present moment.
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