Measuring Up: Habs & Caps - Playing With the Lead
by Robert L on Apr 12, 2010 5:12 PM EDT
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Here is a breakdown of which team held the lead most for stretches of time during the four regular season games player. Surprisingly, the Canadiens more than held their own against the powerful Capitals
For further info, refer to these NHL.com Game and Event Summary sheets at this link.
Game by game lead changes and leading time after the jump.
Game 1 November 20, 2009 Montreal 3 Washington 2 Even Score 11:52 Washington Lead Time 12:07 Even Score 2:47 Montreal Lead Time 33:13 Game Totals ES: 14:39 WLT: 12:07 MLT 33:14 Game 2 November 28, 2009 Washington 4 Montreal 3 (SO) Even Score 8:47 Washington Lead Time 25:03 Even Score 11:44 Montreal Lead Time 14:14 Even Score 5:12 Game Totals ES: 25:43 WLT: 25:03 MLT 14:14 Game 3 January 5, 2010 Washington 4 Montreal 2 Even Score 25:14 Washington Lead Time 8:49 Even Score 1:42 Washington Lead Time 24:15 Game Totals ES: 26:56 WLT: 33:04 MLT 00:00 Game 4 February 10, 2010 Montreal 6 Washington 5 (OT) Even Score 00:36 Montreal Lead Time 5:47 Even Score 14:18 Montreal Lead Time 00:30 Even Score 11:34 Montreal Lead Time 26:56 Even Score 5:11 Game Totals ES: 31:39 WLT: 00:00 MLT 33:13 In four games, two going into overtime, the teams played 239 minutes and 52 seconds of hockey. For 98:57 in those games, the score was tied (or scoreless for 46:29 of it). The Canadiens held the lead for 80:41 in those games, the Capitals for 70:14. In percentage of play approximations, this means that the Canadiens were even or played with the lead against Washington close 75% of the time (179:31 of 239:52). Conversely, the Capitals held the lead or were even with Montreal for approximately 71% of play time. In lead time percentage approximations, Montreal held a 33% to 26% edge.
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The more of these numbers I see...
…the more I think this could be more interesting of a series than many think. I’ll admit stats aren’t everything and I’m just getting back into the sport so I have a lot to learn, but I’m not ready to give up just yet. As with any playoff series, if Montreal could get a surprise on the road, it could be a much closer series than some think.
Then again, I’m very nervous about Washington’s ability to take their play to the next level. 1 home loss could push them to not let up even for a minute from that point on.
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Time Holding the Lead....
…is like saying who led the most laps in NASCAR. It’s not who led the most laps, but who led the last lap. If a team scores in the first minute, and the other team scores 2 in the last minute, than the team that held the lead for 58 minutes loses 2-1.
I do think that being able to play with a lead is significant, but unless the time led is from the first goal a team scores until the end, there’s not much to this statistic…
Let's go Caps!
For an eighth place team to hold the lead for great lengths of time against a first place club….you think that’s nothing?
That’s kind of how the Canadiens won twice and went into overtime in another.
Honestly the team that leads at the end is the team that wins. Playing with the lead is important in that if you have the lead you can dictate pacing and have more options to how you want to play the game. That said, it’s not as important as winning.
Sure the Caps and Habs were both 2-1-1 head to head, and the Habs led more minutes, during the 4 games, but that doesn’t matter right now. Game 1 starts 0-0 and for all we know, no one might hold a lead at all if the game ends 1-0 in OT. I doubt that will happen, but it can. In the playoffs, teams spend a lot more time tied in some cases than with the lead….
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Apr 13, 2010 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
It matters in terms of the Canadiens confidence, and also in their perceptions that they can play with the Caps. It’s an important stat in that regard, but yes it does affect a game’s outcome. What it does is inspire confidence. I employed the same tactic and stat when I coached. It works.
Confidence is a good thing, and the Canadiens being 2-1-1 against the Caps should give them confidence. I know that the Caps are also looking at that 2-1-1 record that both teams had and they know that the Habs are not going to go away easily.
There is no doubt the Habs can certainly play with the Caps, and will be in the game most of the time. I don’t think that having the lead for a length of time is necessarily the key. Having the lead when time runs out is….
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Apr 13, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Ya know… my wife tells me I’m a master of the obvious..
..sigh… I suppose it’s true. ;-)
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Apr 13, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Wives, lol, what they don’t pick up on?
Mine likes to point out subtle details…drives me crazy! Twenty years later it’s still “Why do you do that like this when you could do this like that?”
Thanks goodness she hates hockey, or I’d lose my entire realm of being! :)
Well, the good news is my wife didn’t know hockey until I took her to a game back in 2000 (when we were dating.) I remember it was a Caps/Sharks game because at that game she decided to become a Sharks fan (because of the uniforms) and became a big fan of Evgeny Nabokov… oy.
Ah well, she can be a Sharks fan, the Caps only play them once or twice a year… although if the finals are Sharks-Caps, I might have to move to a hotel for 2 weeks…
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Apr 14, 2010 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions
If the Sharks get there, I’ll pay your room!
I’ve always wondered what it would be like to be married to a hockey fan. My wife says it sucks!
Two hockey playing daughters help make up for lots of stuff.
It’s not so bad. It does mean that I have to get Center Ice each winter so my wife can watch the Sharks on the TV while she’s in her studio (she’s an artist). I don’t mind that at all, getting to watch games I’d otherwise miss. She also used to run a hockey community at livejournal.com, but I think she gave that up…
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Apr 14, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice to get a look at all those extra games. Here with the Habs, the local french channel carries all 82 and playoffs for the price of regular cable. Bonus, they replay the games later that night and early the next morning. Spoiled or what?
I get to cuss my team out three times when they lose, and triple delude myself when they win!
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