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Insane Comback Against Ducks Places Habs On The Playoff Path

Fifteen regular season games to go folks, before the real season begins. Should the Canadiens keep finding ways to win like they did in Anaheim Sunday night, they wil be part of them.

Consider that the Habs were down by three after a period and needed a pair of goals in the final two minutes to tie. With Jaroslav Halak pulled for a sixth attacker and Andrei Markov picking his glove off the ice after being whacked on the wrist by Corey Perry, Bobby Ryan hits the post on the open net. The play turns up ice and who should score but Markov.

After five minutes of overtime, the game heads to a shootout. Anaheim has a one goal lead when Sniper Teemu Selanne shoots over the crossbar. Now all Ducks' goalie Jonas Hiller needs to do is stop Brian Gionta. Hiller makes the save, but loses sight of the puck which is trapped under his arm. He slides backwards over the goal line, and the puck drops into the net. The play is reviewed and the goal counts.

With the shootout tied, everyone in the world figured that Ducks coach Randy Carlyle would send out former Canadiens captain Saku Koivu, a shootout natural if there ever was one. But no, Carlyle deduces that the man for the situation is not Koivu, nor Ryan, but defenseman James Wisniewski, who has all of three goals this season.

What on God's earth was going through Carlyle's mind?

With the win, the Canadiens jump back into seventh place, one point up on the Boston Bruins who have three games in hand. By taking six of a possible eight points on the road trip, the Habs have placed destiny in their own hands going into the final sprint.

The Rangers, in ninth place with 67 points, cannot catch the Canadiens by winning their game in hand. The tenth place Thrashers would need to win two of three games in hand to equal Montreal, who would then still have more wins. This coming week, the Habs play the Lightning, Oilers and Bruins, and it present s a golden opportunity for them to create some cushion room down the stretch.

As it stands, Montreal has the least amount of games left to play at fifteen among teams fighting for playoff spots. Nine of those games are at home and six are on the road. Additionally, only five (Sabres twice, Senators, Flyers and Devils) of those fifteen games are against teams above them in the overall standings. The Canadiens final three games are against the Eastern Conference's bottom three clubs, the Hurricanes, Islanders and Maple Leafs.

Could they ask for better?

By all calculations, Montreal would need between 87 and 89 points to qualify for the post season, which means that should they win nine of fifteen they should make it in. All they essentially have to do is beat the teams they should.

If only it were that easy!

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From what I can tell, 95 points is a mathematical clinch at this point, and every point that the 8th/9th place teams don’t get reduces that number, so 88 or so should definitely do it. In the West, the cutoff looks like it’ll be 94 or so, so thankfully the Habs are in the lesser conference!

Gotta wonder what Carlyle was thinking, and you gotta wonder about the Ducks there… they just blew a 3 goal lead in a big game on home ice against an Eastern team that was playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. They’re pretty close to being toast as far as the playoffs are concerned.

Post-Olympics, I thought they’d need 4 out of every 6 points to make the playoffs. They’ve got 6 of 8 so far, so they are on pace.

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Mar 8, 2010 12:37 AM EST reply actions  

I was trying to find a link to Mirtle’s updated Playoff Push, as he’d explained why the East bar had lowered. It was calculated so based on the number of games won by the West over the East in inter conference games and the number of possible points available from East teams playing each other. Mirtle’s formula had called it at 89 somewhere around the 50 game mark, so the total could also be reduced by now. My guess is Habs get in with 86.

by Robert L on Mar 8, 2010 6:24 AM EST reply actions  

I emailed him last night telling him to update it! Only two games tonight, shouldn’t be too hard. He probably got discouraged since he’s on the Leafs beat now. :)

Hockey blogging can't get any flatter.

by saskhab on Mar 8, 2010 10:08 AM EST up reply actions  

playoff run!

too much attention on wether the habs can make a playoff spot , i’m looking at them winning there division , and getting home ice advantage thrue the first , possibly second round, go habs! chase em down

by canada58 on Mar 10, 2010 2:41 PM EST reply actions  

playoff index

There’s a guy who does the same thing as Mirtle, with weekly updates, at http://playoffindex.com/ – this guy has the ‘playoff threshold’ pegged at 90 points for the eastern conference, but doesn’t say much about why he picked that number.

by Jkafka on Mar 10, 2010 4:19 PM EST reply actions  

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