Are The Canadiens About To Be Excluded From The 2009-10 Post-Season?
by Robert L on Mar 31, 2010 5:05 AM EDT
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When the Canadiens were on a six game win streak a short time ago, the playoffs in 2009-10 looked to be a lock. Now what appeared to be a sure thing just 10 days ago now seems much more tenuous, as all teams around them have tightened the race as the Habs have won but one of their last four. Tuesday night, three teams in chase for the final three positions won their games, and the results definitely cloud the Canadiens post season picture. As it stands, the Canadiens are now in a three way deadlock with the Philadelphia Flyers and Boston Bruins, all with 82 points after 76 games. By virtue of games won, the Flyers with 38 sit sixth, Montreal are seventh with 37 wins, followed by Boston with 35. The Atlanta Thrashers, with 80 points are sitting ninth, two points up on the New York Rangers, who own a game in hand. Both clubs have 34 wins. Atlanta is the only team at present with five games remaining. The other 4 teams have six games left to play, including Montreal. In the Northeastern Conference, the playoff race is essentially all but over for the Carolina Hurricanes, the Florida Panthers, the New York Islanders and the Tampa Bay Lightning. Any combination of four standing points earned by all of the Flyers, Canadiens and Bruins would eliminate each. Last night, the Thrashers defeated Toronto 3-2, the Rangers shaded the Islanders 4-3 and the Bruins shut out the New Jersey Devils 1-0. For Habs fans watching the race with nervousness, it was an 0 for 3 night in terms of the Canadiens receiving outside help. Over the next twelve days, the race will surely tighten and go down the wire - possibly for all five teams still alive and in the hunt. Here is what each team has staring down at them between now and April 11.
The sixth place Flyers have six games remaining. Philadelphia are on the road for three of those, against the Islanders, Maple Leafs and Rangers, and host the Canadiens, Red Wings and Rangers at home. Philly are 3-5-2 in their last ten, and 1-3-1 in their last five. They are battling terrible goaltending woes, relying heavily on third stringer Brian Boucher. Lost for the balance of the regular schedule is center Jeff Carter. Forward pest Daniel Carcillo has been suspended for two games. Being that the Philly goaltending is so suspect, the will have their hands full with Detroit on the 4th, and possibly the Canadiens two nights earlier. The home and away dates with the Rangers will be hard fought. Philadelphia should be favoured at home against the Islanders and Toronto, although the Leafs are mighty hot at present, enjoying a 6-3-1 run. Combined Flyers record versus: 11-4-0 Islanders: 5-0-0; Maple Leafs:2-1-0 ; Rangers: 2-2-0; Canadiens:2-1-0; Red Wings: 0-0-0 Possible points: 5 or 6 of 12 is a reasonable guess.
The Canadiens, sitting seventh, have one win less than the Flyers, with an equal number of games played. The teams face each other in Philadelphia on Friday Like the Flyers and Bruins, Montreal has three games on the road (Carolina, Philadelphia and Islanders) and three at home (Carolina, Buffalo and Toronto). Montreal's 6-2-2 push in the last ten games brought the club from the outside looking in, into playoff position, but a recent dip has them at 1-2-2 over the past five games. The Canadiens biggest woes this season have often involved icing a full healthy lineup. While that is far from unlike the challenges faced by other teams, it seems a new tile is ready to fall on their heads with each successive game. With Mike Cammalleri and Marc-Andre Bergeron having finally returned, the Habs lost Travis Moen for two games with a skate gash over the eye. Upon his return, Montreal lost a key component in center Glen Metropolit, out for the season with a separated shoulder. With the Canadiens top two line intact and six healthy defensemen, they should take points from Carolina, Philadelphia, the Islanders and Maple Leafs. The game against Buffalo will be a pivotal playoff test against a possible first round opponent. Combined Canadiens record versus: 10-6-2 Carolina: 2-0-0; Philadelphia: 1-2-0; Buffalo: 1-3-1; Islanders: 3-0-0; Maple Leafs: 3-1-1 Possible points: 7 of 12 is a minimal expectation, with 9 or 10 being the aim.
The third club in the 82 point logjam are the Boston Bruins, who have been coming on strong as of late. Despite the loss of center Marc Savard for an undetermined time, the Bruins are 5-5-0 in their last ten, and 3-2 in their last five, including shutouts over the Thrashers, Flames and Devils. Boston's season has so far been a tale of very hard luck, but they can never be counted out as recent showings attest. The loss of Savard has forced them into an early playoff mode and they have responded against very strong teams. The Bruins, who have an even .500 record on home ice, will play the Panthers, Sabres and Hurricanes on home ice and the Maple Leafs and Capitals (twice) on the road. Combined Boston record versus: 10-8-0 Panthers: 2-1-0; Hurricanes: 2-1-0; Sabres: 3-2-0; Maple Leafs: 3-2-0 Capitals: 0-2-0 Possible points: 7 or 8 of 12 would be consistent of recent form.
The Atlanta Thrashers, sitting on the bubble in ninth place, simply refuse to die. With 80 points on the season, they are two back on the Flyers, Canadiens and Bruins, none of whom they will play in their final five games. The Thrashers are 6-2-2 in their past 10 games, including a 2-2-1 string in their last five. Of the five clubs in the fight for the final three positions, Atlanta is in tough, to say the least. Three games on the road against the Penguins, and Capitals (twice) and home dates with the Devils and Pens await. While Atlanta has come out looking good after parting with Ilya Kovalchuk and Kari Lehtonen, the opponents they will face present a monstrous task. Combined Atlanta record versus: 1-8-0 Penguins: 0-2-0; Devils: 1-2-0; Capitals: 0-4-0 Possible points: 4 of 10 alone might be a task, any more a surprise.
The New York Rangers can be accused of being as streaky as any of the four clubs they are chasing down. Currently, the Rangers are on a 5-4-1 string, with an 3-2-0 upswing of late, two of those wins coming against the rival Islanders.
Chameleon-like, the Rangers can present a tough opponent on some nights, and appear completely indifferent the next. Several players are said to be underperforming under coach John Tortorella. While any team lead by always dependable goalie Henrik Lundqbist and the dazzling Marian Gaborik should be able to build a contender, many of the Rangers assets are overpriced and inconsistent.
The Rangers have six games remaining, with four on the road (Lightning, Panthers, Sabres and Flyers) and two at home (Maple Leafs and Flyers). Whatever the Rangers fate, it could all come done to the final home and away dates with the Flyers on the final weekend of the season.
Combined Rangers record versus: 9-5-2
Lightning: 2-1-0; Panthers: 2-1-0; Sabres: 1-1-1; Maple Leafs: 2-0-1; Flyers: 2-2-0
Possible points: 6 or 7 of 12, with the Flyer's games being wild cards.
In the Canadiens scheme of things, all hope are permitted. They have a winning record against three of the five teams they will and have played Toronto fairly even all season. In Montreal, they are capable of beating Buffalo and the Flyers are a very wonded bunch ready for the taking.
In terms of their competitors schedules versus their own, the Canadiens are also favored. The Bruins and Thrashers are in tough playing top clubs, with may or may not be a good thing. The Rangers / Flyers doubleheader is a good thing for Montreal, unless both contest result in three point splits. Also favorable to Montreal are the Rangers four road games.
What isn't a blessing for the Canadiens is that the teams currently fighting for spots do not play one another very much. In time that can work in the Habs favour, but for now they have destiny in their own hands and can expect help from no one.
In a final analysis, the hill is extremely steep for Atlanta and New York and the odds say neither can pass the test. The current standings could very well remain as they are.
In the event of a tie, the first tie breaker is games won. The second is teams records versus one another of the season's course, and the third is goals scored during the season.
Montreal has a winning record against the Bruins (5-1-0) Rangers (3-1-0) and Thrashers (2-1-1) and could come out even with a win against Philadelphia (1-2).
In the goals for tiebreaker, the Thrashers currently lead with 227, with the Flyers next at 221. Montreal (204), the Rangers (201) and the Bruins (191) follow.
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I am not really concerned
The site Sportsclubstats.com runs a bunch of simulations based on records and probable outcomes and the Habs are at 92% to make the playoffs.
The Rangers are done, they have to essentially run the table and if they do run the table it means that Philly is denied two victories. If the Blueshirts tear off a 5-1 run or the Thrashers a 4-1 run, the Habs only have to go 3-3 or any total that nets them 6 points.
I am looking at 6th place, not behind. If they don’t make it, there is no blame to go around (even though the fanbase will pick a scapegoat to please their own inadequacies). One game will not decide this battle. They have six games with a fully healthy lineup to earn 6 points, if they don’t do it then they just aren’t a good team. Even the team that collapsed down the stretch last season managed 5 points in their final 6 games.
It is a miracle that they are even in a playoff position.
A whole new roster and coach. They lost their most indispensible player for half the season, their two top scorers missed 20+ games, Kostitsyn missed 20+ games etc.
I am not a Martin fan, but is it reasonable to blame him? Somebody will get blamed, but it will be ridiculous. This team has no business being in 7th with everything that has happened.
by Chris Boyle on Mar 31, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
If they miss out after all they have been through, yes I would pin it on Martin, fully. Despite the injuries, he has had enough assets game in and game out to work with to get wins.
While injuries have factored in, it must be noted that there were never more than two key elements gone from the lineup at once. Where Martin has erred is in managing players talents early on. His decisions made for whitewash seasons for Lapierre, Price and Latendresse before the trade.
That deal still angers. Don’t you think that Gui, as a right handed shot, should have at least been tried out once on what was his natural junior wing, where after a few games he might have been a snug fit with Gomez and Gionta?
Might it not have been a good idea to let Max play his natural position or give Price some of the opponents that helped Halak fatten his stats and stature.
There is also a myriad of in game decisions that Martin didn’t react to until the post game pressers, the most recent being the Buffalo debacle. Should they miss the playoffs by one point, such things will be brought back up.
How did he hinder Price’s development?
If you are going to blame him for Lats, Price and Lapierre, you have to credit him for Pouliot, Halak and the kids who came up and filled the gaps. It is the same thing that I said about Price/Halak. If you are looking for flaws to expose you will always find them, if you are looking for positives to extol, they are also there.
If they miss the playoffs by 1 point, I can blame Price for a bad goal in New Jersey. I can blame Gomez for quitting on a play to complain to the ref against Atlanta. I can blame Hamrlik for a missed assignment, Markov for a bad pinch etc etc etc.
It isn’t reality. With 82 games in a season all of those small things are broken down into a million tiny plays, to define a season by ONE of them is absurd.
The Habs broke down in Buffalo and you placed the blame on him. Not the D who broke down, not the lost puck battles, not the missed defensive assignments, not the terrible penalty taken. Conversely, when they came back from 0-3 against the Ducks, the credit was given to Halak, Gionta, Markov and ZERO given to Martin pulling Price, or the players he put on the ice late in the game.
Every article you write is full of astute observations, don’t let bias cloud those points.
by Chris Boyle on Mar 31, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
But Chris, who’s in charge?
The players are instructed what to do, but the decision come down to the coach. I won’t deny that Martin has done some things very well, but over a season’s course, if they miss the playoffs, the bottom line will be that he just didn’t do enough things well. Underscoring that bottom line is the notion that Martin, all along, has been attempting to coach a team he doesn’t have. He did not implement speed on the forecheck it seems until about the 70th game.
And there’s no bias with me. Martin’s had 76 to convince me he has progressed with this team and he hasn’t changed my mind much.
You have not provided me with an argument that presents his flaws without contradictions of his positives.
If he is in charge, he has made the right decisions that won 37 games. He made the decisions that won games with a 4th line of Brock Trotter, Desharnies and White. He managed to keep the Canadiens in contention without Markov when Julien, Gainey etc couldn’t get 2-3 wins without him.
I don’t like his system. I don’t like him as a coach, but if they miss the playoffs by one point there is a large list of factors that would trump me blaming him.
It is either the players, or the coach. It isn’t a mix and match of both best tuned to create an argument. This is no different than Price/Halak. The names change, but the goalie controversy NEVER goes away.
Fire Therrien, he sucks. 4 years later he is coaching in the Stanley Cup Finals.
Fire Julien, he sucks. 3 years later he coaches the Bruins to the best record in the East (as well as leading the Devils to a playoff birth).
Fire Carbo. Gainey comes in and the Habs are annihilated in the first round.
A great coach can make a huge difference, but the change is usually brief. Burns was a 3 year act and generally suffered a steep decline from year one in performance. Ted Nolan, Dave Tippett all receive their share of praise.
Look at Carbo. Coach of the Year to fired in 12 months. This is a pattern that I refuse to ignore anymore. Martin is an average coach with average results and like a goaltender, when he is surrounded by talent he gets great results.
Before the season the expectation was a playoff spot in the 5-8 range, exactly where they are today.
You can blame Martin if you like, but the real answer lies much deeper than that.
by Chris Boyle on Mar 31, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
should read “Coach of the Year finalist”
by Chris Boyle on Mar 31, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not going to list points, but I’ve watched Martin long enough to have the opinion that he is not an in-game coach, which a team whose best asset is speed, needs. He’s slow, doesn’t coach on the fly very well, and is ill suited for his team’s style.
His regular season winning PCT is .550 and for playoffs it is .447. In 10 years in the playoffs, he’s gotten his team to the third round only once. In my mind, he’s hardly a difference maker.
As per Price, I think that Martin sidetracked his whole season when, after two stellar starts, he did not play him in game 3 against Calgary.
I could get redundant here, but I just find in thebig picture that he’s out step.
I never said he was a difference maker, but he hasn’t done anything this year that changed my opinion of him.
He is as good as the team around him, and most coaches with a team made up of a defense of Hamrlik, Spacek, Gorges, O’Byrne, Mara and Gill for 40 games would not be in the upper echelon of the conference. Most coaches with an offense filled with 60 point forwards would not finish at the top of the conference.
His regular season winning percentage may be .550, but when you break it down per team it shows exactly what I am saying. (Now you have to factor in that the Blues and Senators records were pieced together when there was no bonus point. In 1986 there were only 9 of 21 teams over .500, as opposed to 2007 when 9 of 30 teams finished under .500.)
Average St. Louis Blues team – .484
Strong Senators team – .562
Average Panthers team – .520
His Senators teams had 6 straight .575+ winning percentage seasons, with 4 .600+ seasons. They had plenty of speed and were successful under Martin.
He was 100% as advertised (I said as much in September).
He is a poor playoff coach and I am not arguing that he is not a difference maker. That being said, he is not going to cost you playoffs either. He is conservative, but if the Habs miss the playoffs by 1 point, I don’t know how you can pin that point on him when you know that a healthy Markov for 40 games or a healthy Cammy, Gio combo finds a way to get that 1 point.
As for Price, if Price was that messed up by that one decision then he has ZERO NHL future. He seemed to be fine when he dominated November.
I guess it comes down to all the games I’ve seen him coach, whatever the lineup, in which he couldn’t find a thing to alter the eventuality of the game. I mean, we all see games slipping away from teams, and it angers to see Martin so damn passive in his manoeverings. We all know how good the Habs could be on the PP, yet because of its style, for a long time, it drew the least penalties. Habs were killers 4 on 4, and Martin never seemed to send anyone over the boards with the intent of drawing an opponent off with him for two minutes. A coach is a tactician, a string puller, and all Martin does is stare at his bellybutton lint wondering how to make a wool cord. He’s got zero sense for aggression and how to manipulate it. He’s fireless. Look at all the coaches who have won Cups in the league and what makes each special. Martin has none of it, and I’m not terribly anxious in watching him tread water for a few more years.
Don’t get me wrong, I would never argue the merits of Martin being a good coach. You are 100% right that he is incompetent at adjusting in game and does not temper his system to his assets.
He is rarely exposed in the regular season because teams don’t prepare intricate game plans to stop you, they just don’t have the time. Given a good team he can roll 4 lines and watch his talent prevail. Given a bad team he can roll 4 lines and watch his talent impaled.
The playoffs are a game of chess, where you take away strengths and must counter every move that take away yours. He faced the same team FOUR times and could not figure out a way to counter what the Leafs were doing. They never changed their gameplan, yet won every time.
I don’t think he is a good coach, I just wouldn’t blame him for missing the playoffs.
Kinda like the baseball playoffs
If you aren’t Mr. October, everyone forgets July. Same thing here. Pleks has been iffy at best over the last month, and if you aren’t Mr. April, then nobody remembers December.
by blockersave93 on Mar 31, 2010 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
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