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Reconstituted Canadiens Hard To Get A Handle On

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There is an old adage in NHL hockey, that more mistakes are made on July 1 than any other day of the year.

Although it is a long standing theory that needs little testing, what Bob Gainey acomplished in regards to overhauling the Canadiens lineup on July 1, 2009, will become fodder for future examinations into what is good or bad management.

"Overhaul", in fact, is the kindest term folks are using. I've heard words such as "pummelled, salvaged, ripped up" on the downside, and "reconstituted and streamlined" on the upside.

One day later, the aquisition of Scott Gomez, and the signings of Jaroslav Spacek, Hal Gill, Mike Cammalleri and Brian Gionta are no less mystifying. While these players, with the exception of Gill, are highly skilled, this just doesn't strike me as looking like a team to go forward with.

Star-divide

I see concerns with the club gelling as one would hope. In turning over a complete top line (Tanguay, Koivu, Kovalev) for an entirely new one, there could be problems both on the ice and in the dressing room. One - third of the defense has also been altered, which is less of a concern on it's own, but a deeper one in the overall scheme. Despite passing over ten free agents, players remaining will need to adjust to their new team mates, and there will be an elongated period of transition for everyone invloved.

And transition, in this period in Canadiens history, is truly the notion that went awry. It is one thing to "overhaul" a club when it disappoints, but in these instance, the assets that could best have been used to insure a smoother transition were mismanaged beyond comprehension.

While it's all good to have the money to spend for such an overhauling, the organizational philosophy of properly accumulating, developing, and accounting for assets has gone out the window.

With a pile of cash at their disposal, the Canadiens have become about as visionary as the New York Rangers, and Toronto Maple Leafs.

It used to be that drafting smart and grooming sensibly were the team's mottos.

Now, it's just spend, baby! Screw the assets!

3_chickenpatience_medium

What has become of the Canadiens much bandied 10 unrestricted free agents? What have the Canadiens reaped from this mass of assets?

The answer - piddly squat.

Nothing to show for Mike Komisarek who we will now get to watch six times a season in a Maple Leafs uniform.

For Saku Koivu, a nine season captain and 13 year veteran, we have nothing but memories.

For Alex Kovalev, the star of the Bell Centre show on many nights over the last four seasons, there is no return.

Alex Tanguay, last summer's big acquisition, who cost the club a first round draft pick, the Habs are left with a windgush and a void.

In the cases of Robert Lang, Mathieu Dandenault, Patrice Brisebois, Francis Bouillon, Tom Kostopoulos and Mathieu Schneider, it can be assumed that there would have been little return under the best of circumstances.

While late season injuries and post season assessments figure in as to why the Canadiens were placed in a position in which it receives nothing for the group, it must be noted that it was Gainey's plan all along to proceed in this manner.

It should also be said of the four key departures that each of those players has essentially been replaced on the starting roster, but in doing so it cost the club close to an additional $5M to do. Would it not have just as feasible to retain the top line of Tanguay, Koivu and Kovalev, in addition to Komisarek, spending near $18M as opposed to $23M, and add a player of Gomez or Cammalleri's stripe with the money left over?

And money left over will soon become an issue if it isn't already. As it stands, there are now 16 players on the Canadiens NHL payroll, totalling $47.961M. This total includes a projected bonus to Carey Price, but does not include the two way contracts of Max Pacioretty, Yannick Weber, Ben Maxwell and Alex Henry, who played games with Montreal in 2008-09.

With a salary cap of $56.8M, that means the Canadiens have $8.839M to divvy up between RFA's Tomas Plekanec, Guillaume Latendresse, and Matt D'Agostini - who will most surely play full NHL seasons - and Kyle Chipchura and Greg Stewart, who may be on two way deals once more. Considering that Ryan O' Byrne and Weber are the sixth and seventh D men on the NHL roster, it can be foreseen that another contract will need to be added to the roster.

Talk about a tight squeeze. There is little manoeverability here.

It doesn't get much brighter one year along. In 2010-11, the Habs payroll stands at $42.482 - a drop of only $4.429. After this season, Glen Metropolit will be off the books, but then RFA's Price, Sergei Kostitsyn, Jaroslav Halak and Maxim Lapierre will need to be taken care of. Those four players presently account for $4.360 of the $4.429 drop.

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With estimations that the salary cap could drop as much as $5M in 2010, the Canadiens could be in a pickle by next summer. With a better free agent crop one year from now, the Canadiens will have no idea where they stand by then. In can almost be predicted that between then and now, there will be more assets parted with for no return. The Canadiens, with these recent moves, have shacked themselves up Philadelphia Flyers style.

It has clearly gotten hard to follow Gainey and the Canadiens' logic this past week.

Changing the team's identity and culture is one thing, but it seems as though Gainey acted much in defense of his critics, which would be unusual for him. The moves have left a sour taste in the mouths of fans, who are left cheering for a team they can barely recognize.

The entire situation reminds me of attending a concert of a band whose songs I barely know. They might have had one big hit, a few years back, but they have a brand new lead singer I've never heard of. This ticket has been foisted upon me, and I've showed up for my front row seat, arms folded, in a "show me" state of mind.

Until this lineup rocks it - I won't be up cheering and dancing.

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Fan Fave ... to cap cut?

Is there no hope of signing Kovalev? (Asks the guy who was presented with a Kovalev Authentic replica Jersey less than a year ago).

I mean letting go of some of these RFAs wouldn’t be that bad. Gui is done… unless he magically gains speed I see him has useless lumber. Sure he may have been able to stand in front of the net like Joel Otto… but he’s not a tough enough guy to take the brunt of the damage that goes along with being ‘that guy". O’Byrne I would package with Gui.. even for draft picks at this point. But the savings could go along with the Habs (close on) 4 mil to secure Kovalev for another year. It would be good to have him in light of the fact we just drafted another Russian in Avtim, and with Markov and Kovy already here it might be a factor (at some point) for Yemelin (Emelin?) to tuck and run from the KHL.

by Cruisin4aBruisin on Jul 3, 2009 8:13 AM EDT reply actions  

Gui is a decent 3rd liner. Not more and not less, why is that so hard to see? He also plays well with Lapierre. Add some speed (Pacioretty, D´Agostini, or maybe even S.Kostitsyn) and we´ll have a pretty good third line.

by Torres on Jul 3, 2009 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pretty harsh assessment

of a 22 year old hockey player who has done well when placed on the top line.

A player who has improved by leaps and bounds every year. He was drafted as a PROJECT player, it is silly to write him off at an age when some top prospects haven’t even made the NHL and he is entering his 4th.

www.fantasysensehockey.blogspot.com

by Wamsley on Jul 3, 2009 9:44 AM EDT reply actions  

Big players of his type develop slower. A few examples, Tim Kerr, Todd Bertuzzi, Phil Esposito

by Robert L on Jul 3, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

it would have helped it he put in more time in Hamilton.
One problem with the development of power forwards is that since they are in such high demand, the moment a team finds a young big offenseman, they usually can’t resist the temptation of using him right away. That also makes their development more challenging. Instead of Latendresse having the chance to round out his game and be a big impact player in Hamilton he was already demoted to being a role player at 19 years of age, when most others are in college or the minors.

by nyhabsfan on Jul 3, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

There’s two schools of there. If Latendresse can score 16 goals in the NHL at age 19, the thinking is his challenge is to get better at that level. The option that year was the Q and not the AHL. In 2006-07, the Canadiens clearly needed Latendresse’s contribution more than it needed it the next two seasons.

Had he been send down in 2007-08, his confidence might have taken a dive. It also has to be analyzed whether there were players on that Hamilton team that could have helped him out that season. As the Bulldogs regressed after winning the Calder, it is doubtful.

Last season, Latendresse worked hard over the summer, and there was evidence in his skating stride and all around work ethic. By then, he had played too many NHL games and would have had to pass through waivers.

Next year, he’ll start with three seasons of NHL experience under his belt, something few 22 years old can claim. As Lapierre seems to be on strong learning curve as well, I’d wager that if Latendresse plays a full season alongside of him, he’ll score 25 goals. Then, he will no longer be a subject of this same discussion.

by Robert L on Jul 3, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right now we think the Lapierre-Latendresse line will be 3rd, but why?! If those 2 players progress like they did last year (both fighting through injuries) they may be a force and see more time as the second line.

The fact is, Gui is a 22 year old player with a ton of NHL experience. Playing well in the AHL doesn’t always translate to the NHL. Being an impact player at the AHL level was not what he was drafted for. The moves this week now will allow for him (and the Brothers K) to develop fully. They have some experience and have learned from some talented vets…now it’s their turn to take off the training wheels!

by blockersave93 on Jul 4, 2009 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

It may be wishful thinking but I’m glad for the general housecleaning. The new guys can’t possibly perform any worse than the old group did after the all star break last year! I still think the Habs should sign a veteran goalie to throw into the mix. I’m not real confident starting the season with Halak/Price.

by expos4938 on Jul 3, 2009 9:56 AM EDT reply actions  

Ok let’s see here. By the the third week of January, one of the the top two defenseman has missed 17 games and Cammalleri has missed 20. Gomez goes down for three weeks and misses 11 games. Before all three come back, the second line center is knocked out for the season after 50 games and the winger just starting to pick up the slack from the third line is hurt until March.

Still think they cannot do worse.

Injuries are as random as a flu virus. Young players as well as older ones were injured last season. Komisarek, Markov and Tanguay are in their prime years. Latendresse was 21. Koivu despite years of being knocked down, gets back up and contunues to post points at a 0.80 PPG rate. Lang’s achilles heel injury can hardly be attributed to age.

by Robert L on Jul 3, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

about the injuries last season and would have liked to made sure that the core of 2008 could compete in 2010 at the same level.

But, you have to admit that a fired coach saying in his final press conference that “YOU WILL SEE” and then a patient man like Gainey cleaning house in such an unfamiliar fashion screams there is something we aren’t privy to that is going on.

Allow your imagination to work for itself, but when individuals spend 35 years establishing a certain character and then A. Fire one of their best friends and B. Fire half his team one season removed from a 1st place finish, something is amiss at the Circle K.

www.fantasysensehockey.blogspot.com

by Wamsley on Jul 3, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Injuries weren't all of it

Remember Lapierre actually played injured all year and had his best year.

Komi started off last year playing lousy, not just after he got beaten up by Mongoloid Lucic. Saku was hurt again, but as always impressed us with his ability to play when most people would have shut it down. Kovalev was flighty as usual. Tanguy…who knows, didn’t impress me, but maybe with more time he woulda.

Take into account if we tried to keep the 2007-2008 core, and they ended up being the 2008-2009 core, then we would have been really screwed in the next 3 seasons in the same way we are now, as those players would have been signed for several years. The money was not that drastically different.

by blockersave93 on Jul 3, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is where you are wrong.

Bringing back the same core would have been $16M for Tanguay/Koivu/Kovalev/Higgins. That is the number without any of them taking a salary cut. Higgins on a 1 year deal, Kovalev on 2.

Right now they have $18M locked up in 3 players for 5 years. If Gainey after 40 games realizes it isn’t working again can ship HIggins out of town and buy out Kovalev for a 1.5M hit leaving the cap hit after 2010 at HALF of what it is right now.

I don’t see where you think that is the same. That $7.5M is the cost of an impact player. While keeping McDonagh in the fold.

What will your opinion be if Gomez/Gionta are the players they were this season? What will it be if Cammallari regresses to 30 goals? Knowing that these 3 players are the core for the next 5 years.

No flexibility, no options. Just sit and take it with no hope for improvement. That is a huge gamble.

www.fantasysensehockey.blogspot.com

by Wamsley on Jul 3, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Head to head

Alexei Kovalev 26/39 65 -5
Saku Koivu 16/34 50 +4 (lower by injuries)
Alex Tanguay 16/25 41 +13

Michael Cammalleri 39/43 82 -2
Scott Gomez 16/42 58 -2
Brian Gionta 20/40 60 +12

I would take the players stats from last year head to head. We’ll see if I and Gainey are correct.

The PP and PK will be very strong, with improved D and keeping, the Habs should improve this year.

by blockersave93 on Jul 3, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with you Wamsley, I was thinking exactly the same thing. Something smells bad here. The old “truth will come out”….but still what does it mean? They were secretly running a drug trafficking ring behind the scenes and Koivu was the ringleader? Have you ever seen a team being completely wiped out like that in one fell swoop? I was always a Gainey supporter but there’s no warm and fuzzy feeling going on right now I can tell you that much.

by MISS KITTY on Jul 3, 2009 11:47 AM EDT reply actions  

Next years cap is irrelevant.

Next year would not have mattered in the equation because none of the big 4 would be signing 1 year deals and all of the 4 will be expecting a several million a year over several years. So we would be in the same pickle if we had signed Gionta for 5 mil or Kovalev for 4.5 mil.

Also look at the pp and pk units that we will have to throw out there. Also the team speed we built will be more than we had in 08…which is what made us so good. Sure we are smaller, but does Tanguay, Kovalev or Koivu improve us dramatically in physicallity?!

I like gionta, maybe 5 mil is too much, but I like him because as small as he is, he goes to the net. I like Camellari and for 5mil I think he may end up being a bargain…and as he said, Gomez is the reason he is here.

Last, the Pens won the cup, not the Bruins and Flyers. The big teams are fine and dandy, but it is the skill teams that are winning. The skill positions have improved and I love the fact that Gui and Lapierre are gonna get more time, they earned it last year. They may end up being our second line if their production increases.

Again, of the free agents, who would have been better?

by blockersave93 on Jul 3, 2009 12:50 PM EDT reply actions  

It only makes no difference if Kovalev wanted 5 years @ 5M
Koivu wanted 3-4 years with no paycut and Tanguay wanted a Cammallari type deal.

The reality is that the only one who would have received more than 2-3 years was Tanguay.
Higgins could have been reupped at 2.5M, 3 at most.

So instead of 7.35/5/6 for 5 years it would have been Tanguay for 5 and the rest
would have been bridge deals. Deals that would have allowed maneouvreability should
something arise next summer in regards to a declining economy.

What Gainey did is set the core for the next half decade. THIS IS THE TEAM like it or not.
If Kostitsyn and Paccioretty make the leap and become 1st line talents, you are now paying
2/3 of your second line first line money. This is on the Blueprint of how to lose in the new NHL.

Now when those two players look for their contract to pay them first line money Gainey
has to scramble to deal the overpaid 2nd line forwards. This scenario is playing out all over
the league and Gainey avoided it for 4 years and DIDN’T need to do what he did.

www.fantasysensehockey.blogspot.com

by Wamsley on Jul 3, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Higgins wasn’t the 4th I was meaning, I meant Komi, sorry. Point taken with Higgins, but with what production? Any of the 4 forwards signed are an upgrade to hggins none-the-less. Now considering that McDonagh was tossed into the deal, I won’t defend that, totally wasted value there and an inexcusable mistake by Gainey.

Koivu will sign for more than 2 years guaranteed. Kovalev will be for 2 years probably and Tanguay will be a 5 year deal. Last year Saku made 4.75 mil and Kovalev looks to be in the 4.5 range while Tanguay should be around 5mil. They weren’t giving home town discounts and shouldn’t have to. Also, they will be progressively decreasing in skills while the new players will be improving.

Saku and the 2 Alex’s would only give us 1-3 million extra to sign a player like Kovalchuk that will demand 7.5-8 million next year…how does that help us? And what if Atlanta re-signed him (ie the Twins) and pulled the rug out from us?

The math wasn’t there to benefit the team in the long or short run. So would we have been happier signing Koivu and Kovalev and Tanguay? There were a lot of people calling for a change, now that it is here we are all shocked but not going to or squeaking in the playoffs had become the norm, and changes were warranted.

"What Gainey did is set the core for the next half decade. THIS IS THE TEAM like it or not. If Kostitsyn and Paccioretty make the leap and become 1st line talents, you are now paying 2/3 of your second line first line money. This is on the Blueprint of how to lose in the new NHL."

I agree to a point, we will be handcuffed, but with a salary cap who isn’t. Both players will be RFA’s and if they make a huge leap we can keep them till Hammer’s deal and Laraque’s deal (7 mil per for the 2 players) are done and sign them then for what they deserve. I would be shocked if in two years Pacc is top flight (nothing against him, but he needs some work still) and if either or both Kostitsyn brothers take off we’ll have to move the kid D-men up and make ‘em play. Gill will also be gone by then and we’ll have an extra 2.2 million.

I am not arguing that we are in an ideal situation, but it is not the end of the franchise. I’d bet the Gionta, Spacek and Cammalleri signings will work out very well for the Habs. With some luck and great play out of the defense and goal, we could be a threat not just in the regular season, but post season as well.

by blockersave93 on Jul 3, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

The difference is if Kovalev is on a 2 year deal then if Kovalchuk shakes loose you can cut Kovalev loose by including him in the deal for cap purposes or if you structure a two year deal properly, you buy him out. (Two years 9.5 – 6.3/3.15, then your cap hit is 3.15 split over 2 seasons at 1.5M per).

They could have included a Higgins in the deal who would have taken up 2-2.5M, McDonagh and maybe another prospect and picks. That is 75% of Kovalchuk’s cap hit.

Is anybody going to take Gionta off your hands for an upgrade of Kovalchuk? You cannot buy Gionta out. So now any deal has to involve AK46 and his 3.75M. Hamrlik comes off the books after next season, but who is going to replace his presence? With Komisarek/McDonagh gone they will likely need to replace Hamrlik through trade or UFA.

Gainey has backed himself into a corner now. He just went ALL IN with Queens when the board was showing overcards. It is a huge gamble.

This team will have to improve from within, and I hope that when it does that there is cap space to pay the players entering their prime and not be stuck overpaying the ones exiting their prime.

www.fantasysensehockey.blogspot.com

by Wamsley on Jul 3, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Replace with our strength

Hammer will have to be replaced with our strength. While we lost McDonagh, we still have depth in the system (PK and Weber), they need to progress and we’ll be fine, or we’ll get a cheap 7-8 d-man for a year…which we have ended up doing over the last decade.

You are 100% right that you could structure the contract appropriately, but I doubt any agent is gonna be duped into that. When either Saku or Alex sign, no way will they sign with those stipulations…maybe with the next contract when they are at the very end of their career.

Remember that Kovalchuk is gonna be in a bidding war, and their are no guarantees, I want a player not just crossing my fingers and pullin’ a Sundin.

Picking up any free agent is a gamble…we just have 3! It doesn’t mean the next 5 years are gonna be like the last 16.

by blockersave93 on Jul 3, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Where's my money?

Guess Gainey rather give 7 plus mil to a north-american skater than the HOSSA-GABORIK-HAVLAT type players… all these players we got are good players atleast… but it’s a shame to see them come without other players there really, and I can’t wait to see these players deal with the Latendresse Phenomenon…

by Kensay on Jul 3, 2009 3:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Gui has acquited himself fairly well among the forwards in the 2005 draft class in regards to those drafted ahead of him.

1 – Crosby 132
2 – Ryan 36
4 – Pouliot 7
6 – Brule 14
7 – Skille 4
8 – Setoguchi 42
11- Kopitar 79
13 – Zagrapan 0
15 – O’ Marra 0
16 – Bourret 0
17 – Hanzal 19
20 – MCardle 0
23 – Bergfors 1
24 – Oshie 14
25 – Cogliano 36
29 – Downie 9
33 – Neal 24
34 – Stoa 0
39 – Kalus 4
40 – Sauer 0
42 – Abdelkader 0
43 – Blunden 0
44 – Stastny 63
45 – Latendresse 46

by Robert L on Jul 3, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

From that list Cogliano, Oshie, Ryan, and Setoguchi aer going to fly past him within 2 years.

Abdelkader also looks like a good player.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Jul 3, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

And they probably should, but it shouldn’t take away that a 19 year old made the Canadiens three years ago, hung with it, made some progress, worked hard off the ice, never said boo while generally being crapped on by all comers, and has a fairly decent future ahead of him.

by Robert L on Jul 3, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

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